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Some Snow Late Tonight; A Brighter Weekend

| 3:35 pm January 23, 2015

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

GLOOMY, COLD, WET: Low clouds, fog, and drizzle can be found across most of North and Central Alabama this afternoon; temperatures are holding in the 40s. The bulk of the heavier rain has moved east of the state, for now, into Georgia.

SNOW FLAKES? As the surface low moves northeast tonight, and a deep upper trough moves overhead, light rain will change to light snow over North Alabama after midnight. The morning data set suggests no need to change our forecast thinking; it will generally be a low impact event.

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A little accumulation is possible on grassy areas overnight, mainly north of U.S. 278 (north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden), and no travel impacts are expected other than the chance of a few slick spots on bridges over far North Alabama. Most of this happens between 2 and 6 a.m., so most of you will simply sleep through it.

IMPROVING WEEKEND WEATHER: The sky will become mostly sunny tomorrow as dry air works into the state; the high will be close to 50 degrees. Sunday looks very nice, with ample sunshine and a high in the upper 50s.

NEXT WEEK: An Alberta Clipper will pass northeast of Alabama Monday. I guess a raindrop or snow flake is possible over the northeast corner of Alabama (DeKalb/Jackson Counties), but most of the state will be dry with a high between 47 and 50. Then, the rest of the week looks cool and dry, with highs mostly in the 50s and lows mostly in the 30s.

ARCTIC BLAST AS FEBRUARY BEGINS? We are seeing increasing evidence of a shot of very cold air down into the eastern half of the U.S. in about 8-9 days. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) both go negative, and a deep upper trough is forecast to form over the eastern part of North America. This could set up a cross polar flow, and it could be very cold around here in the Feb 1-3 time frame. Too early to be specific, but confidence is increasing in this possibility.

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See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I had a great time today visiting with the kids at Stemley Road Elementary School in Talladega County… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here Monday morning by 7:00 a.m…. Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Cold and Wet; A Brighter Weekend

| 6:36 am January 23, 2015

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

COLD RAIN CONTINUES: Periods of rain will continue across the great state of Alabama today; temperatures won’t change much during the day with most communities holding in the 40s. Additional rain amounts of 1/2 inch are likely, which should bring storm totals into the 1-2 inch range by tonight.

SNOW FLAKES LATE TONIGHT: As the surface low, now in the northern Gulf of Mexico, moves northeast late tonight, there is a good chance the rain will change over to light snow before ending over North Alabama. The main window for this light snow will come from about 2:00 a.m. until 6:00 a.m., so most of you will sleep right through it.

Temperatures over North/Central Alabama (places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Gadsden) should be in the mid 30s, so roads will stay just wet and there should be no travel impacts. However, up over far North Alabama’s Tennessee Valley, a few icy spots on bridges are not out of the question. But even up there widespread problems are not anticipated.

A little light accumulation is possible on grassy areas north of Birmingham, but it sure won’t stick around long.

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THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The sky will become mostly sunny by mid to late morning tomorrow, and the high will be close to 50 degrees. Sunday will be warmer, with ample sunshine and a high in the mid to upper 50s.

NEXT WEEK: An Alberta Clipper will pass northeast of Alabama Monday; we stay dry with a mix of sun and clouds along with a high around 50 degrees. Then, the rest of the week looks cool and dry with highs in the 50s, and lows in the 30s, which is right at seasonal averages for Alabama in late January.

THE LAND OF VOODOO: There has been good consistency in the idea of a storm system impacting Alabama the following weekend, around Sunday February 1 and Monday February 2. And yes, there has been evidence of some winter weather mischief, but there is no skill in a specific forecast 10 days in advance, as long time readers fully understand. Should this system form, it also will have potential to pull down some pretty cold air once it passes as the AO/NAO combo goes negative. Take some time to see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

THREE YEARS AGO TODAY: Eleven tornadoes touched down during the pre-dawn hours on January 23, 2012; two people were killed in Jefferson County. One of the most memorable tornadoes was an EF-3 that tore through Center Point and Clay…

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I will be doing a weather program this morning at Stemley Road Elementary School in Talladega County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Here Comes The Rain

| 3:36 pm January 22, 2015

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: Rain is increasing over West Alabama this afternoon; even a few reports of sleet mixed in with the rain over Northeast Alabama. The sleet goes away soon, and the rain should be widespread across the state tonight and tomorrow as a surface low moves across the northern Gulf of Mexico, with good upper support. Not much change in the forecast thinking; rain totals of around one inch for places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden, with potential for two inches along the Gulf Coast at Mobile and Pensacola. No thunder, no flooding… just rain. It will be a cold rain with temperatures in the 40s all day tomorrow.

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SNOW FLAKES LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY? As the surface low moves northeast, there is a decent chance the rain will taper off to light snow over North Alabama before ending. The best chance of light snow is between 2:00 and 7:00 a.m. Saturday, and mostly north of a line from Vernon to Jasper to Oneonta to Gadsden. This will be a low impact situation, with surface temperatures generally above freezing, and roads just wet.

The possible exception is over far North Alabama, where temperatures could slip into the low 30s around daybreak Saturday. A touch of bridge icing is possible in places like Muscle Shoals, Athens, Huntsville, and Scottsboro, and maybe even a small amount of accumulation could be found there in grassy areas.But again, this is a low impact event.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The sky becomes partly sunny Saturday afternoon as drier air works into the state; the day will be cool with a high between 47 and 50 degrees. Then, Sunday looks pretty nice with ample sunshine and a high in the upper 50s.

NEXT WEEK: The Alberta Clipper will pass northeast of Alabama, and we have dropped any mention of light rain on Monday. We stay dry with a mix of sun and clouds; in fact much of the week looks cool and dry with highs mostly in the 50s, and lows mostly in the 30s. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more long range details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I had a great time today visiting with the kids at Snow Rogers Elementary School near Gardendale… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Rain Getting Closer To Alabama

| 6:18 am January 22, 2015

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: No rain for Alabama this morning, but the sky has become mostly cloudy, and a large mass of rain is west of the state over parts of Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Today will be cloudy cooler with a high in the mid 50s, and some rain could enter the southwest part of the state this afternoon.

COLD AND WET: Rain becomes widespread across our state tonight and tomorrow as a surface low moves through the northern Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will stay in the 40s all day tomorrow, and rain amounts up to one inch are likely for places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden. Heavier rain is possible to the south, where Mobile could see a storm total of two inches.

LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING: There is a decent chance the rain could briefly change to light snow on the back side of the departing system over North Alabama generally between midnight tomorrow night and 6:00 a.m. Saturday. Temperatures will be above freezing, there won’t be any accumulation, and no impact. Just the usual Alabama curiosity factor with snow flakes.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The sky becomes partly sunny Saturday afternoon with a high in the low 50s, and Sunday looks like a pretty decent day with ample sunshine and a high in the mid to upper 50s.

NEXT WEEK: Models continue to trend drier for Alabama Monday as the Alberta Clipper passes well to the northeast, and I think we can take out the risk of light rain. Monday should feature a mix of sun and clouds with a high in the 52-55 degree range. Then, cool and dry weather continues for the rest of the week. No sign of any bitterly cold air for Alabama through the rest of January; see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I have a weather program today at Snow Rogers Elementary School in Gardendale… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Rain, Colder Temps On The Way

| 3:07 pm January 21, 2015

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT: Another delightful mid-winter day for Alabama with ample sunshine and temperatures mostly in the low 60s this afternoon. Montgomery soared to 70 degrees at 2:00p CT.

TO THE WEST: A major storm system over the Southwest U.S. will bring snow to parts of New Mexico, the Texas Panhandle, West Oklahoma, and Southeast Colorado over the next 24 hours, and it will spread clouds into our state late tonight.

Tomorrow will be a cloudy and cooler day for our state with a high in the 50-55 degree range, and some rain could reach the southwest counties during the afternoon. The rain will spread northward tomorrow night, and much of the state should be in rain by midnight.

COLD, WET FRIDAY: Friday will feature a steady, cold rain with temperatures in the 40s all day. Rain amounts for North/Central Alabama will approach one inch, with potential for two inches over the southern counties of the state. No thunder, no severe weather, no flooding, no ice, no snow… just a rainy day thanks to a surface low in the northeast Gulf of Mexico.

FRIDAY NIGHT: As the low moves northeast, there is a chance the rain will change to snow over Tennessee, and a few snow flakes could be seen as far south as extreme North Alabama (mainly north of the Tennessee River). If that does happen, we expect no significant impact with temperatures above freezing, and the deeper moisture off to the east.

Some accumulating snow is possible over parts of Tennessee and Kentucky late Friday and Friday night…

sat_snow

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The sky becomes partly sunny Saturday with a high in the low 50s, and Sunday looks cool and dry with a pretty good supply of sunshine and a high in the 50s.

NEXT WEEK: The 12Z GFS suggests the Alberta Clipper on Monday will produce light precipitation mainly northeast of Alabama Monday, with very little here. We will still mention some risk of “scattered light rain”… but it sure looks like many communities won’t have enough rain to measure.

Mid-week is looking cool and dry Tuesday through Thursday with highs mostly in the 50s… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more long range ideas.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I enjoyed speaking to a large group of Alabama Power retirees in Tuscaloosa today… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

One More Dry/Pleasant Day

| 6:07 am January 21, 2015

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RAIN ARRIVES TOMORROW NIGHT: We will squeeze out one more pleasant mid-winter day across Alabama with a partly sunny sky and a high not too far from 60 degrees this afternoon. Clouds begin to return tonight, and tomorrow will be a cloudy and cooler day with a high in the mid 50s.

Rain will impact Southwest Alabama tomorrow afternoon, but for the north/central counties the rain begins tomorrow night, and Friday looks like a cold, rainy day. We stay in the 40s all day Friday, and rain amounts of around one inch look likely for the I-20/59 corridor (places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden). Heavier rain will be over South Alabama, where some spots could see two inches as a surface low moves across the northern Gulf of Mexico.

The air Friday will be stable, so no thunder, and the rain won’t be heavy enough for any flooding issues. And, the air will be too warm for any ice or snow issues during the day.

FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY: The surface low moves northeast, and as colder air drops southward there is some chance the rain could change to snow over Tennessee. Even some risk of a snow flake or two down into extreme North Alabama, but we expect no impact if that happens with surface temperatures above freezing and with the deeper moisture well to the east.

OUR WEEKEND: The sky becomes partly sunny Saturday with an afternoon high in the low 50s, and Sunday looks cool and dry with mixed sun and clouds and a high in the mid 50s.

MONDAY: An Alberta Clipper will impact Alabama along with a deep, cold upper trough. Moisture will be very limited, and these features rarely produce much precipitation in our state. We will mention a chance of some scattered light rain for now… the cold air aloft associated with the upper trough could bring enough dynamic cooling for a few snow flurries over the northern third of the state, but again no impact is expected with very little moisture and surface temperatures above freezing.

Tuesday and Wednesday of next week are looking cool and dry.

VOODOO LAND: Interesting to note the European model (ECMWF) is showing a big negative NAO/AO spike as February begins, but remains to be seen if that will verify. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I will be speaking at a meeting today of the Tuscaloosa Area Alabama Power Company retiree group, The Energizers… and then this evening I will be at circus at the BJCC in Birmingham on ABC 33/40 News at 4, 5, and 6:00. Hope to produce an afternoon Weather Xtreme video, which will be posted by 4:00 p.m. Enjoy the day!

Colder With Rain By Friday

| 3:27 pm January 20, 2015

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

FINE MID-WINTER DAY: We have sunshine today, filtered through mid level clouds, and temperatures up in the low to mid 60s across the great state of Alabama. Montgomery has managed to reach 70 degrees at mid-afternoon. Nothing on radar, no rain is expected over the next 48 hours.

A cold front will slip through here in dry fashion tonight, and will be only slightly cooler, with a high close to 60 with a mix of sun and clouds.

CHANGES AHEAD: A strong wave in the southern branch of the jet stream will being clouds into the state Thursday, and as a surface low forms in the northern Gulf of Mexico, rain will spread across the state after midnight Thursday night and during the day Friday. The heaviest rain will be close to the coast, where 2 inches or more are possible… up this way amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch are likely. No thunder, no flooding threat, no snow, no ice… just a cool, rainy day Friday with temperatures holding in the 40s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The 12Z run of the GFS hints the rain will end across North/Central Alabama by 9 a.m. Saturday, with a clearing sky Saturday afternoon. If the sun breaks out, we will see low 50s. Sunday looks cool and dry with a partly sunny sky and a high in the mid 50s.

NEXT WEEK: An “Alberta Clipper” will bring clouds back into Alabama Monday, along with some potential for a little light rain. Moisture will be very limited, so rain amounts will be very light, generally under 1/10 of an inch. Monday’s high will be in the 47-50 degree range. Then, Tuesday looks colder and dry with a morning low in the 20s, and a high in the mid to upper 40s.

Still no evidence of any bitterly cold air for Alabama through the end of January; see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more long range ideas.

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today visiting the kindergarten classes at Weaver Elementary in Calhoun County… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Wet and Colder Weather Returns Late This Week

| 6:18 am January 20, 2015

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

STILL MILD TODAY: Looks like most North/Central Alabama communities will enjoy a high in the 62-65 degree range today, about ten degrees above average for January 20, but still well below the record high of 78 degrees set way back in 1928. We expect a good supply of sunshine through scattered clouds, much like yesterday.

Not much change tomorrow; the high will be close to 60 degrees with a mix of sun and clouds.

RAIN RETURNS: A strong wave in the southern branch of the jet stream will spin up a surface low in the northern Gulf of Mexico later this week; clouds increase across Alabama Thursday, and rain will begin at some point Thursday night. Models have trended stronger, and further north with the precipitation shield in recent runs. Friday looks like a cool and wet day, with occasional rain along with temperatures in the 40s. The heaviest rain will be over the southern quarter of the state, where one inch is possible… amounts up this way (North/Central Alabama) will be in the 1/4 to 1/2 inch range.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: We will also have to adjust the forecast to keep some risk of light rain going through Friday night and Saturday morning as the surface low moves northeast… the latest GFS hints the rain will be over by 9:00 a.m. to 12:00 noon Saturday, and we might see some clearing late in the day. Saturday will remain cool with a high in the mid to upper 40s.

Sunday for now looks cool and dry, with a partly sunny sky and a high in the low 50s.

NEXT WEEK: An Alberta Clipper will bring clouds and some risk of light rain to the state early next week on Monday. These features don’t have much moisture to work with, so precipitation amounts should be light. Might even be some risk of a snow flake or two around the Tennessee Valley Monday night, but it sure doesn’t look like a big deal. Then, cool and dry weather is the story for mid-week.

No sign of any seriously cold air for Alabama through the end of the month, with the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation remaining generally positive. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more long range ideas.

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

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I have a weather program today at Weaver Elementary School in Calhoun County… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!