James Spann
A Few Showers/Storms Around Today
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RADAR CHECK: A band of showers was over Northwest Alabama at daybreak this morning.. from near Athens down to Sulligent. Heavier storms were well to the south of here over South Mississippi and Louisiana, where a few flash flood warnings were required during the pre-dawn hours.
We will forecast scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the great state of Alabama today; SPC defines the standard “slight risk” of severe weather from the northeast tip of Alabama north to Detroit and Buffalo. The higher severe weather probabilities are well to the north of Alabama; we could very well see some strong storms this afternoon, but the threat would come from hail and gusty winds. The tornado threat, while not zero, is very, very low with the main dynamic support far to the north and weakening wind fields.
The best chance of showers and storms will come later this afternoon into the evening hours, and rain amounts on an average basis should be around one-half inch. Some neighborhoods will get more, some less. The high today will be in the low to mid 80s.
TOMORROW: Sure looks like most of the day will be warm and dry; a partly sunny sky with a high between 86 and 89 degrees. But, a cold front will move into North Alabama late in the day, and we will mention some risk of isolated showers and storms on the front in the 4:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. time frame. Data from the high resolution NAM shows very little development, and the chance of any one spot getting wet tomorrow evening is only in the 10-20 percent range.
REFRESHING FRIDAY: A nice, cool, continental airmass blows into Alabama; the high will be only in the mid 70s with a fresh north breeze and low humidity. Friday night will be cool; most communities will drop into the 48-52 degree range at daybreak Saturday. Delightful for the start of a holiday weekend.
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: The weather just doesn’t get any better. All sunshine Saturday, Sunday, and Monday with low humidity levels; highs will be in the 80s. The weather will remain dry into Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
GULF COAST WEATHER: A few showers or storms are possible today and tonight, then just a few isolated showers tomorrow. After that, picture perfect weather Friday through Memorial Day with sunny days and clear nights. Highs will be in the 78-82 degree range on the coast… with warmer temperatures inland. The sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 79 degrees.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon…. enjoy the day!
Storms Clip Northwest Alabama
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RADAR CHECK: About 90 percent of Alabama is warm and dry… but a strong storm did clip the northwest corner of the state earlier this afternoon; for a brief time that storm produced some hail and a severe thunderstorm warning was required for parts of Colbert and Lauderdale Counties. To the west, a tornado watch is up until 10p CT for parts of North Mississippi and West Tennessee, but organized severe weather is not expected in our state.
Generally speaking, this is the warmest day so far this year for most of Alabama with temperatures in the 87-91 degree range at mid-afternoon. Birmingham and Tuscaloosa report 88 degrees at 3:00… Montgomery has soared to 91.
SOME RAIN AT TIMES: We will mention a chance of scattered showers and storms tomorrow, but the main dynamics will weaken a bit and pass well to the north of Alabama, so for now a big severe weather event isn’t expected tomorrow, but we certainly could see a strong storm or two based on the projected instability and shear values. Hail and gusty winds will be the main threat from the stronger storms. The high tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s.
THURSDAY: Computer guidance suggests much of the day Thursday will be rain-free with a partly sunny sky and a high in the mid to upper 80s. But, a cold front will enter North Alabama during the afternoon, and the high resolution NAM shows a broken band of showers and storms ahead of the front. There are some outdoor graduations planned for Thursday night, and it looks like the window for a passing shower or storm will come from about 4 p.m. until 11 p.m… so you might want to have an indoor backup plan just in case. No severe weather is expected with any storms that form Thursday evening.
FRIDAY AND THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: A nice surge of cool, dry air blows into Alabama late Thursday night. We project sunny warm days, and clear cool nights over the long weekend. We won’t get out of the 70s Friday, and it sure looks like much of North Alabama will visit the 40s early Saturday morning… very unusual for the Memorial Day weekend. Humidity levels will be low. Doesn’t get much better.
AT THE BEACH: Other than a few isolated showers/storms tomorrow night and Thursday, the weather will be superb. Sunny days, fair nights. Even lower humidity levels on the coast Friday and Saturday. Highs will be around 80 on the immediate coast, with low to mid 80s inland. Sea water temperatures are running generally in the mid 70s.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s new episode we recorded last night.
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I enjoyed the visit with the residents at St. Martin’s in the Pines in Birmingham earlier today… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
Warm, Dry Weather For Alabama
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
WE KNOW HOW THEY FEEL: I think this image taken by my friend from ABC News, Ginger Zee, pretty much sums up the situation in Moore, OK yesterday…
We will post opportunities to help these people as we learn of them. Death toll is 91 as I write this early this morning, and there is fear it will go higher. Probably over 100. Our death toll in Alabama April 27, 2011 was 252.
STILL DRY TODAY: Expect a good supply of sunshine across Alabama today with a high in the 86-90 degree range this afternoon. For some it will be the warmest day so far in 2013.
TO THE WEST: SPC has defined a “moderate risk” of severe weather for the Ark-La-Tex region… some cities included in this enhanced risk include Dallas, Shreveport, Texarkana, and Tyler. A slight risk surrounds this from the Texas Hill Country to Michigan.
TOMORROW/THURSDAY: The deep upper trough responsible for the severe weather across the Great Plains in recent days will weaken and pass far north of Alabama… any severe storms will be in states like Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania. We will mention a chance of scattered showers and storms here tomorrow, but rain amounts should be generally light and spotty. Other, tomorrow will be warm with a mix of sun and clouds and a high in the mid 80s.
We will hang on to some risk of a shower Thursday with a cold front passing through, but again rain amounts should be light, and some spots will miss the rain completely.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: The weather doesn’t get any better as a dry, continental airmass drops into Alabama. Expect sunny warm days, and clear cool nights. We won’t get out of the 70s Friday with a refreshing north breeze, and it now looks like we will see a low near 50 degrees early Saturday, with 40s likely for the cooler spots around here. We rarely enjoy cool mornings like this in late May. Absolutely no risk of rain for the long, holiday weekend.
GULF COAST WEATHER: Looks great through Memorial Day from Panama City to Gulf Shores. You might see a brief passing shower or storm tomorrow or Thursday, otherwise mostly sunny days and fair nights. Highs on the immediate coast near 80, with mid 80s inland. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab this morning is 77 degrees.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon…. enjoy the day…
Dry Through Tomorrow
**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video… working social media support for the Moore, OK tornado**
A violent tornado moved through Moore, Oklahoma earlier this afternoon… destruction is severe and widespread; at least two schools were hit. We simply don’t know about fatalities or injuries since it happened less than one hour ago. Below is one of the schools hit… photo from KFOR-TV
90 DEGREES POSSIBLE TOMORROW: Here at home, an upper ridge will keep our weather dry tomorrow… we have potential for the first 90 degree day of 2013, but the latest guidance has most places in the 86-89 degree range, which sounds more likely due to the wet soil conditions.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: Scattered showers and storms are likely on these two days, but severe weather is not expected since the upper dynamics will weaken and pass well north of the state. Still, a strong storm or two is certainly possible Wednesday afternoon. Rain amounts should be one inch or less.
FRIDAY AND THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: Delightful weather, with sunny warm days and clear cool nights. Looks like we drop into the cool 50s early Friday, Saturday, and Sunday morning. Highs will be near 80 Friday, with low to mid 80s Saturday and Sunday. The weather stays dry on Monday, Memorial Day.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show at 8:30 p.m. CT… you can watch live here.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
Large, Wedge Tornado Approaching Moore, OK
From the air… from KFOR-TV
From the ground… from @ks0stm
Radar debris ball…. from OKC terminal radar…
TDS (tornado debris signature) from OKC dual pol CC…
