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James Spann

James Spann

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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Much Colder; Snow Showers/Flurries

| 3:34 pm February 8, 2016

COLD, BLUSTERY PATTERN: A deep upper trough over the eastern U.S. will deliver a healthy dose of very cold Arctic air into Alabama tonight through Thursday morning. We won’t get out of the 30s tomorrow, and a strong west/northwest wind of 15-30 mph will keep the wind chill index at or below freezing most of the day. Looks like the coldest morning will come early Wednesday, with a low in the 19-23 degree range for most communities across North/Central Alabama.

SNOW: While the cold is the big headline, we all know people in Alabama are more curious about the snow potential. We expect occasional snow flurries and snow showers in the cold air advection pattern tonight into tomorrow morning; snow flurries have already been reported at Florence this afternoon, up in the northwest corner of the state.

TIMING: Snow showers and snow flurries are possible across North and Central Alabama mainly from 9:00 tonight through 12:00 noon tomorrow.

ADVISORIES: The National Weather Service in Huntsville has issued a winter weather advisory for Jackson and DeKalb Counties in far Northeast Alabama for late tonight and tomorrow…

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ACCUMULATION/IMPACT: As we mentioned here this morning, the best chance of accumulation (1/2 to 1 inch) will come across the high terrain (above 1,200 feet) of Northeast Alabama. Most places across North/Central Alabama will see little if any accumulation and little impact. But, understand we will be dealing with convective snow showers, and like rain showers on a summer afternoon, they tend to be scattered and random. So, there could be a few spots where heavy snow showers form to make the ground white, and a few isolated slick spots could form on roads after 4:00 a.m. We project temperatures to be below freezing from 3:00 a.m. until 9:00 a.m.

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I would advise getting up extra early tomorrow, turn on ABC 33/40, and get an update on road conditions. For most of you, there won’t be any impact, but a few isolated problems are possible, as stated above.

LATER THIS WEEK: We begin to warm up Thursday afternoon as we rise into the low 50s. Then, clouds increase Thursday night ahead of a cold front, and a few sprinkles are possible Friday morning as the front passes through. Moisture will be very limited, and rain, if any, should be light.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: More cold air settles into the state Saturday and Sunday thanks to a big 1048 mb high passing north of here. Highs drop into the low to mid 40s, and we will be close to 20 degrees early Sunday morning (colder pockets should visit the teens). The air will be dry, and the sky should be sunny both days.

See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today visiting with the kindergarten students at Munford Elementary… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Much Colder; Snow Showers Ahead

| 6:16 am February 8, 2016

THIS MORNING: It is a quiet morning across Alabama with temperatures across north and central counties mostly in the upper 30s and low 40s. A few patches of light rain, or rain showers, are possible later this morning with temperatures rising into the 46-50 degree range by early afternoon.

MUCH COLDER AIR BLOWS IN: Temperatures should begin to fall across far North Alabama later today with a gusty north wind, and that Arctic shot will drop southward tonight and tomorrow, setting up a very cold Tuesday. A good chance we won’t get out of the 30s, and a north wind of 12-25 mph will keep the wind chill index around freezing most of the day.

THE “S” WORD: Anytime the word “snow” is used in an Alabama forecast, it tends to set off a firestorm complete with wild rumors, bad information, and fear of a catastrophe like January 28, 2014. Let’s go beyond the little picture of a snow flake on your phone app and lay it out.

TIMING: A few snow flurries or snow showers could begin across the Tennessee Valley of far North Alabama this afternoon, but for places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden, the best chance of seeing a few flakes will come tonight and tomorrow morning.

PLACEMENT: The more numerous snow showers will come over Northeast Alabama, but one could pop up just about anywhere over the northern half of the state tonight. And, these convective snow showers are similar to rain showers on a summer afternoon; they tend to be rather random and scattered. No way to resolve exactly where they form, or where streaks of more concentrated snow showers will develop. We will just have to watch radar trends.

IMPACT/ACCUMULATION: For most of you, this will be a no impact, no accumulation event. However, where a heavier snow shower develops, there could be some light accumulation on grassy areas (generally 1/4″ or less). A few spots across high terrain of Northeast Alabama (generally above 1,500 feet) could see 1/2 to 1 inch, but we stress this is for mountain top locations.

We will drop into the sub-freezing range tomorrow morning from about 3:00 a.m. until 9:00 a.m., and where heavier snow showers form it is possible a few icy patches could develop. And, like we mentioned above, there is no way we can tell you where the heavier showers will crank up. I would get up a little early tomorrow and flip on ABC 33/40, or check the blog, for an update on possible road problems.

But, I stress, for most of you this will be a no impact, no accumulation event.

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ADVISORIES: There are no winter weather advisories of any kind in Alabama… but to the northeast there are “winter weather advisories” for East Tennessee and far North Georgia…

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MEMORIES: Anyone remember the song “The Way We Were” from 1974?

“Memories
May be beautiful and yet
What’s too painful to remember
We simply choose to forget”

The truth is people in Alabama DO remember the painful snow event on January 28, 2014, and the horrible impact forecast from the weather community. Understand we have a limited skill set in dealing with winter weather, and any forecast can go wrong, like any football coach can lose a game. But the circumstances in this event won’t be anything like 1.28.14; on that day we had 2 inches of snow with temperatures at 20 degrees. The ice accretion progress on roads is radically different at 20 degrees (as we learned the hard way), compared to mostly 30s we will mostly have tonight and tomorrow.

REST OF THE WEEK: Wednesday and Thursday morning will be very cold, with lows not far from 20 degrees, and teens for colder locations. The high Wednesday afternoon will be close to 40, and we have a decent chance of rising into the 50s Thursday.

We might consider a risk of rain showers Friday with another cold front passing through the state, but moisture will be very limited, and any precipitation should be very light.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: A big 1048 mb high drops south into the Upper Midwest, and more cold air pushes into Alabama. Saturday and Sunday will be cold and dry; highs 40-44 degrees both days. Sunday morning will be very cold; the 00Z GFS is printing a low of 19 degrees for Birmingham.

LONG RANGE: Global models hint the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) could go positive in 10 days or so, giving us an opportunity for warmer weather toward the end of February. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30p CT… you can watch it here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have a weather program this morning at Munford Elementary School… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Notes On The Cold/Snow

| 6:47 am February 7, 2016

As discussed here for days, the northern half of Alabama will experience a shot of very cold Arctic air tomorrow through Wednesday. And, during the cold air advection process, there is a pretty good chance of snow flurries or snow showers late tomorrow, tomorrow night, into Tuesday.

Here are some important notes about this…

*TIMING: Some scattered light rain/sprinkles will begin during the day tomorrow across North Alabama, and as the air aloft becomes much colder, this precipitation will change over to snow flurries or snow showers tomorrow afternoon. This will continue tomorrow night and Tuesday.

*IMPACT/ACCUMULATION: Basically no impact or accumulation is expected for several reasons. Shallow moisture and weak lift means the snow should be very light in most cases, and surface temperatures will be above freezing a decent part of the time. We will just need to keep an eye on high terrain across Northeast Alabama, especially above 1,500 feet, where the ground could turn white in a few places, and a few slick spots could develop where heavier snow showers fall.

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Up in the far northern part of the state, some light accumulation is possible mainly from Huntsville east (1/2 inch or less).

TEMPERATURES: The cold air is the big story. Temperatures will begin to fall tomorrow afternoon (we won’t get past the mid 40s during the day), and on Tuesday we start the day in the upper 20s, and the high will be only in the 36-39 degree range with a chilly northwest wind. It is beginning to look like our coldest morning will come early Thursday, when teens will be possible across colder valleys.

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We have had so many tragic fires this winter; please be careful with space heaters or anything else that might spark a house fire.

MEMORIES: Anyone remember the song “The Way We Were” from 1974?

“Memories
May be beautiful and yet
What’s too painful to remember
We simply choose to forget”

The truth is people in Alabama DO remember the painful snow event on January 28, 2014, and the horrible impact forecast from the weather community. Understand we have a limited skill set in dealing with winter weather, and any forecast can go wrong, like any football coach can lose a game. But the circumstances in this event won’t be anything like 1.28.14; on that day we had 2 inches of snow with temperatures at 20 degrees. The ice accretion progress on roads is radically different at 20 degrees (as we learned the hard way), compared to 30-35 degrees we will mostly have tomorrow night through Tuesday.

So, no significant accumulation or impact is expected, and the forecast confidence is pretty high. But, we will watch developments closely and keep you posted.

Sharply Colder Early Next Week

| 3:18 pm February 5, 2016

SUNNY WINTER DAY: Temperatures are generally in the low 50s across North/Central Alabama this afternoon with a bright sunny sky. Tonight will be clear and cold; most communities will reach the upper 20s early tomorrow.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Scattered clouds move into the state tomorrow ahead of an upper trough, but the air is very dry and we won’t have any rain. The high will be in the low 50s tomorrow afternoon. Then, on Sunday, we rise into the mid to upper 50s with a good supply of sunshine.

NEXT WEEK: A shot of very cold, Arctic air begins to arrive Monday; the high will drop into the 40s, and clouds will thicken during the day. Some scattered light rain is possible Monday afternoon, and as the cold air deepens, we will continue to mention a chance of snow flurries Monday night and Tuesday.

We are still expecting no accumulation and no impact from the snow flurries; if there is a chance of the ground/grass getting white, it will be across high terrain of northeast of Alabama, especially above 1,800 feet. Tuesday will be a very cold day with temperatures holding in the 30s… a brisk north wind will keep the wind chill index below freezing a decent part of the day.

The good news is that the cold air blast won’t last long; new model data continues to suggest a warming trend will begin Wednesday with a high around 50 degrees along with a sunny sky. Mid 50s are likely Thursday and Friday, and those two days should be rain-free. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today visiting with students at Vestavia Hills Cahaba Heights Elementary, and Trace Crossings Elementary in Hoover… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by Monday morning at 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Cool Days, Cold Nights

| 5:51 am February 5, 2016

SUB-FREEZING MORNING: Most places are in the 27-32 degree range as this day begins; expect a high close to 50 degrees this afternoon with a good supply of sunshine.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: We expect a slow warming trend; we reach the low 50s tomorrow, followed by the mid to upper 50s Sunday. The air stays dry, and both days will stay mostly sunny. We do note tomorrow morning will be cold with a low down in the 20s.

ARCTIC SHOT NEXT WEEK: Much colder air will begin to slip into Alabama Monday; clouds will increase during the day, and some light rain, or a few sprinkles, will be possible by afternoon. We won’t get out of the 40s Monday.

Then, the cold air deepens Monday night and Tuesday, and snow flurries are possible in the colder air. Precipitation will be very light, and no impact is expected. You might see a few spots where the ground/grass turns white across high terrain of Northeast Alabama, mainly above 1,800 feet.

Tuesday will be the coldest day with a high in the 37 to 40 degree range along with a very chill north wind.

The good news is that global models have backed off on the depth and longevity of the cold air; a warming trend will begins Wednesday, and some spots could reach 50 degrees by afternoon. Just a few days ago we were getting signals that we could stay below freezing much of the day Wednesday. The warm-up will continue through the rest of the week. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

wed_temps

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have weather programs today at Trace Crossings Elementary in Hoover, and Vestavia Hills Cahaba Heights Elementary. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Dry Through The Weekend; Colder Next Week

| 3:09 pm February 4, 2016

BLUE SKY: It is a sunny, cool winter day across the great state of Alabama. Temperatures are pretty close to 50 degrees around here with a chilly north breeze. Tonight will be clear and cold, and most communities will drop into the upper 20s early tomorrow.

TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Mostly sunny cool days, clear cold nights as dry air stays in place. The coldest morning will come early Saturday; many places will start the day in the mid 20s. Look for a high close to 50 degrees tomorrow, followed by mid 50s Saturday, and upper 50s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: Some of the coldest air so far this season will blow into Alabama. The first phase of the cool down begins Monday; clouds will increase, and some light rain is possible during the afternoon. Snow flakes could mix in with the light rain Monday night as the cold air deepens; we do not expect any impact if snow flakes are involved.

Tuesday could very well be the coldest day; we hold in the 30s all day with a brisk north wind, and snow flurries/showers are possible. Again, the chance of any accumulation or impact looks very small for now if we do see a few flakes.

Wednesday looks mostly sunny but cold, and again we will have a hard time getting out of the 30s. Morning lows early Tuesday and Wednesday will be well down in the 20s, but the latest model runs have backed off on the idea of possibly getting into the teens.

A warming trend begins later in the week… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Cool, Dry Weather Through The Weekend

| 5:46 am February 4, 2016

NICE AND QUIET: A chilly, continental airmass has settled into Alabama this morning with temperatures generally in the 30s; we will forecast a partly sunny sky today with a high around 50; areas north of Birmingham probably won’t get out of the 40s.

A freeze is likely late tonight; upper 20s are expected by daybreak tomorrow.

TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Not much change; mostly sunny cool days, clear cold nights. Low 50s tomorrow, followed by mid 50s Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Mornings will stay cold with lows in the 28-32 degree range for most communities.

ARCTIC SHOT NEXT WEEK: Clouds will increase across Alabama Monday, and a touch of light rain is possible thanks to a clipper system that will bring the first of several cold air shots into the Deep South. The Monday afternoon will drop into the mid 40s with a chilly north wind.

Then, on Tuesday, we won’t get out of the 30s as the cold air deepens. The sky will feature more clouds than sun, and we will forecast a chance of snow flurries or showers during the day and into Tuesday night. Situations like this rarely bring enough snow for any impact, and the Euro (ECMWF) suggests the chance of really signifiant accumulation for North/Central Alabama is low.

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The coldest day will come on Wednesday. Many North Alabama communities could remain below freezing all day, and by daybreak Thursday morning teens are a good possibility. A warming trend then will begin Thursday afternoon… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have a weather program this morning at Sipsey Valley Middle School in Tuscaloosa County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Dry, Cool Weather Ahead

| 3:34 pm February 3, 2016

DRY THROUGH SUNDAY: As advertised, the sky is clearing across the northern half of Alabama this afternoon…

GOES203020160345DyMnM

Temperatures are generally in the 60s, but we turn colder tonight; we drop into the the mid 30s by daybreak tomorrow.

We project mostly sunny cool days and clear cold nights tomorrow through Sunday. Highs will be mostly in the low to mid 50s, with lows in the upper 20s. Nice, quiet mid-winter weather.

ARCTIC BLAST NEXT WEEK: It continues to look like the coldest air so far this winter season will blow into Alabama. Temperatures begin to fall Monday, and as the cold air arrives, we might even see a few snow flurries late Monday or Monday night over the northern third of the state.

By Tuesday, we won’t get out of the 30s with a sharp north breeze, and Wednesday looks like the coldest day with a high only in the 30-35 degree range for North/Central Alabama. By Thursday morning many communities will likely drop into the teens.

Then, late in the week, a slow warming trend begins. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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TORNADO DAMAGE SURVEYS: NWS Birmingham has now confirmed 4 tornadoes so far for Central Alabama…2 in Pickens (Aliceville & Ethelsville), 1 in Fayette (Ashcraft Corner/Belk), 1 in Lamar (Beaverton). The Pickens County tornado for now is rated EF-2.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Clearing Later Today; Very Cold Next Week

| 6:05 am February 3, 2016

RADAR CHECK: Rain has ended across Northwest Alabama early this morning; the heavier storms are now south and east of Montgomery.

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A flash flood watch continues for Southeast Alabama, where an additional 1-2 inches of rain is likely. But, for North/Central Alabama, we will forecast a clearing sky later today as drier air works in from the north. We project a high in the low to mid 60s today.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: These two days will be dry with a good supply of sunshine, but sharply cooler. The high will be in the low 50s, and we drop into the upper 20s by daybreak Friday.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday will stay cool and dry with a high in the 50s; the latest global global model runs (both the American and European) now keep a low in the Gulf of Mexico far enough away not to impact Alabama Sunday… so we have removed any risk of rain Sunday, and forecast a mostly sunny day with a high in the 50s. Bottom line is that cool, dry weather continues over the weekend.

ARCTIC AIR BLAST NEXT WEEK: Sure looks like we will deal with perhaps the coldest air so far this winter next week. It begins to arrive Tuesday; the day will be mostly cloudy with a sharp north breeze, and a few snow flurries or showers are possible over the northern third of the state. We will have a hard time getting out of the 30s.

Wednesday will be the coldest day; a decent chance North/Central Alabama communities stay below freezing all day, and a north wind will keep wind chill values in the teens despite a partly sunny sky.

And, by Thursday morning, many spots across North Alabama will drop into the teens. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

wed_temps

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Severe Weather Threat Later Today/Tonight

| 6:17 am February 2, 2016

THIS MORNING: Temperatures are in the low 60s across much of North/Central Alabama early this morning; the sky is mostly cloudy, and not much is showing on radar.

Scattered showers could form later this morning and early this afternoon, but the focus of this discussion is on the severe weather threat for Alabama late today and tonight. SPC has expanded the “enhanced risk” of severe weather on their new severe weather outlook for today…

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I would say the threat is still not clear cut, limiting factors include weak lapse rates, and warmer air aloft in the 15,000-20,000 foot range that could keep instability values low. But, while the thermodynamics are questionable, the dynamics are certainly robust for severe weather with a strong low level jet and significant bulk shear values.

PLACEMENT/MODES: The highest risk of a tornado will come over that “enhanced” risk area late this afternoon and early tonight (west of a line from Scottsboro to Birmingham to Thomasville), but the risk of a tornado to the east over the “slight” risk is certainly not zero. Perhaps the greatest risk tonight is from strong, possibly damaging straight line winds as line of storms evolves. Stronger storms are also capable of producing some hail.

TIMING: A few discrete storms could form over West Alabama after 3:00 p.m… the core threat for the state will run from the early evening through the late night hours, although the severe weather threat will fade after midnight as the main dynamic support lifts away, and the air becomes more stable.

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RAIN: Rain totals could approach two inches in some spots, and some isolated flooding problems are not out of the question.

GRADIENT WINDS: Away from storms, south winds will gust to 25/30 mph at times this evening. A wind advisory is in effect for the northern two-thirds of Alabama.

CALL TO ACTION: As always, be sure you are in a position to hear warnings if they are needed, have a plan of action, and a readiness kit in your safe place. See this post I wrote before Christmas on specific things to do.

TOMORROW: Rain ends tomorrow morning, and we should begin to see some clearing tomorrow afternoon as drier air works into the state; still pretty pleasant with a high in the low to mid 60s.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: These two days will be cool and dry. Coldest morning will come early Friday when upper 20s are likely… highs will be in the low to mid 50s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday stays cool and dry with a high in the 50s… then on Sunday a surface low will pass south of here; this feature should push clouds into the state, and some light rain is possible, mainly south and east of Birmingham. Parts of North Alabama could hold in the 40s all day Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: A pretty good cold shot is due in here by mid-week; we might have a hard time getting out of the 30s Wednesday or Thursday… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

2-10_temps

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Stay tuned to the blog for updates on the severe weather situation through the day…

Severe Weather Threat Begins Tomorrow Afternoon

| 3:20 pm February 1, 2016

LIKE SPRING: Temperatures have soared into the low 70s across most of Central Alabama this afternoon with intervals of sunshine. We do have showers on radar, but they are scattered, and mostly over far North Alabama, and across the southeast part of the state. A few showers are possible tonight, but they will be widely spaced.

ACTIVE WEATHER AHEAD: A deepening surface low will move across the Great Plains tomorrow, with heavy snow in the cold air just north of the low track. But, needless to say, we are in the warm sector, and temperatures tomorrow will again push toward the low 70s, with dewpoints rising into the mid 60s. The air will become unstable by afternoon, with surface based CAPE values between 500 and 1000 j/kg.

With the approaching upper dynamics, it looks like strong to severe storms will begin to form by late afternoon across North Alabama, and severe weather still looks likely.

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PLACEMENT: The highest severe weather probabilities are in the “enhanced” severe weather outlook region, which is generally along and west of a line from Huntsville to Tuscaloosa. But, understand severe storms are possible into parts of East Alabama as well tomorrow night.

MODES: Storms that fire late tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow evening will be cellular in nature, and those could produce a few tornadoes, especially over Northwest Alabama. Storms are also capable of producing large hail and damaging straight line winds. Activity should evolve into a long line of storms tomorrow night after 9:00 p.m.

TIMING: Storms should begin to form soon after 3:00 p.m. over West Alabama… highest tornado threat will come from 3:00 until 8:00 p.m… after that the risk will be more from damaging straight line winds as the line forms.

RAIN: Rain amounts around one inch are likely, but the line will slow down over East Alabama after midnight tomorrow night, and some spots could see up to 2 inches there, which could mean some risk of flooding.

CALL TO ACTION: As always, be sure you are in a position to hear warnings if they are needed, have a plan of action, and a readiness kit in your safe place. See this post I wrote before Christmas on specific things to do.

WEDNESDAY: Rain will end early in the day, followed by gradual clearing with a high at or just over 60 degrees.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: These two days will be cool and dry with highs in the 50s; coldest morning will come early Friday, when upper 20s are possible.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday will be mostly sunny and cool with a high in the mid 50s; clouds will slowly increase Sunday, and some light rain could arrive Sunday night. Heaviest rain will come over the southern half of the state Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: Still seeing signals of a shot of pretty cold air down into the eastern half of the U.S. toward the middle of next week; see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details…

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I had a great time today visiting with 1st graders at Vestavia Hills Cahaba Heights Elementary… and Calera Elementary… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 and 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Active Storm System Forming To The West

| 6:38 am February 1, 2016

SPRING-LIKE: We are starting this day with temperatures in the low 60s at daybreak, and again today we will rise into the low 70s in many places this afternoon. The sky will be mostly cloudy, however, and a few scattered showers are possible. In fact, we have a few showers on radar at sunrise…

Screen Shot 2016-02-01 at 6.16.45 AM

TO THE WEST: A major storm system is forming, and will produce big snow today for places like Denver and Albuquerque. Winter storm warnings are up from Denver to Green Bay, with blizzard warnings up for parts of Nebraska and Iowa, north of the surface low track.

OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: That system will bring the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms to the southern U.S. tomorrow and tomorrow night. Best dynamic support will be a little north of Alabama, and lapse rates are somewhat marginal, but parameters are certainly sufficient for severe weather in our state. See the Weather Xtreme video for a meteorological discussion on the setup.

The SPC “enhanced” risk area has been playing the hokey pokey over the weekend… adjusting to the right and to the left; today the risk looks much like it did Friday. Here is the “Day Two” severe weather outlook, with projected “highest risk” times added by me.

AL_swody2

THREATS/PLACEMENT: The highest risk of a tornado or two will be in the “enhanced” risk area, which is along and west of a line from Huntsville to Tuscaloosa. Understand a tornado is possible in other parts of the state, but the threat is generally lower east of that “enhanced” risk. Tomorrow night the storms will evolve into a long squall line, and the greatest threat with the passage of that line will come from strong, perhaps damaging straight line winds. The line should weaken slowly east of I-65 as the upper dynamics lift away from the region, and the air become more stable.

We should mention a few storms could produce large hail as well.

TIMING: A few severe storms could form over far West and Northwest Alabama as early as 3:00 p.m. tomorrow, but for most places the core threat will come from 5:00 p.m. until 12:00 midnight.

RAIN: Rain amounts will approach one inch for most communities, not enough for flooding concerns.

CALL TO ACTION: As always, be sure you are in a position to hear warnings if they are needed, have a plan of action, and a readiness kit in your safe place. See this post I wrote before Christmas on specific things to do.

WEDNESDAY: Rain ends pretty early in the day; we will forecast gradual clearing with a high back in the 50s.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Cool and dry weather is the story on these two days with a good supply of sunshine; highs in the 50s, lows down around freezing.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday will stay mostly sunny with a high in the 50s; the GFS develops a low in the Gulf of Mexico Sunday that spreads rain up into South Alabama, for now we will leave the forecast dry for the northern half of the state. The high Sunday will be in the mid 50s.

NEXT WEEK: Seeing lots of support for the idea of much colder air digging down into the eastern half of the nation in 10 days or so…

2-10_500

We do have a long way to go this winter. Again, see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record this week’s show tonight at 8:30p CT… you can watch it live here.

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I have weather programs today at Vestavia Hills Cahaba Heights Elementary and Calera Elementary… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!