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Hot Summer Weather Through The Weekend

| 3:42 pm August 20, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: As expected, storms this afternoon across Alabama are very isolated…

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There was a wet microburst with a storm at Oxford earlier this afternoon; there was damage on Mcintosh Road. Mellon Bridge is closed because of trees and power lines. These storms will fade quickly once the sun goes away this evening.

HOT SUMMER DAYS: Look for hot, mostly sunny, hazy days and fair nights tomorrow through the weekend, with daily highs in the mid to upper 90s. There is always some risk of a thunderstorm on a hot summer afternoon in Alabama, but due to warm air aloft associated with an upper high, those storms will be few and far between, much like today. This will be the hottest four day period of the summer so far.

NEXT WEEK: The upper high weakens, and we expect slowly falling heat levels, and a slow increase in the number of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs will drop to near 90 by the middle of the week.

AT THE BEACH: Very nice weather through the weekend, with mostly sunny days and fair nights from Panama City west to Gulf Shores and only isolated storms. Highs on the coast will be in the 87 to 90 degree range, with mid to upper 90s inland.

TROPICS: NHC is giving the disturbance in the Atlantic a 50 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression during the next 48 hours; this system will move into the Caribbean Friday. Tropical and global models have shifted a bit to the right during the past 24 hours; most of them move this to a point near Hispaniola late this weekend. From there, it is still way too early to determine the ultimate destination and intensity, but most models hint it will remain east of the Gulf of Mexico.

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We stress model guidance really can’t be trusted now since there is no well defined center, and model initialization is poor. We will just have to wait and watch in coming days, but if you have a trip planned to the Gulf Coast next week, or over the Labor Day weekend, no need to worry about this for now.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I enjoyed speaking to members of the Boaz Rotary Club today… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Here Comes The Summer Heat

| 6:11 am August 20, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

HOT IS THE WORD: An upper high will build across the Deep South in coming days, and will set up the hottest 7 day period we have seen so far this summer. We did reach 99 degrees in Birmingham back on August 7, but it was pretty much one and done.

We are forecasting a high in the mid 90s today, followed by upper 90s tomorrow through the weekend. Humidity levels will be high, and the heat will be oppressive. I won’t insult your intelligence with “heat tips”, but it will be pretty tough if you have to work outside during the heat of the day.

STORMS? Yes, there is the risk of thunderstorm on almost any hot, humid summer afternoon in Alabama, but the warmer air aloft associated with the upper high means they will be few and far between. If you manage to see a cooling shower or storm, be thankful.

NEXT WEEK: Heat levels will drop slowly as the upper high weakens and the air aloft become colder… also expect a slow increase in the number of “scattered afternoon thunderstorms”. Highs, however, will still hold in the 90s at least for the first half of the week.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only isolated storms for the area from Panama City west to Gulf Shores through the weekend. Highs along the immediate coast 87 to 90, with mid to upper 90s inland. The sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 85 degrees.

TROPICS: The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two weak, disorganized waves over the Atlantic. The lead wave has the best chance of some development, and it will move into the eastern Caribbean Friday. Scam artists on social media are showing scary graphics predicting a major hurricane on the Gulf Coast for Labor Day weekend, and begging people to “share” across Facebook. I ask that you don’t participate in the scam… NOBODY knows the placement or intensity of a tropical cyclone 7 to 10 days in advance.

Most tropical models move the system up toward the southern coast of Hispaniola and Cuba in 4-5 days, but it remains to be seen if this can develop at all due to dry air, and interaction with the mountains on the island of Hispaniola.

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The spread on global models is 1500 miles toward the end of next week. The GFS moves it to a point north of Galveston, the Canadian global model recurves it into the Atlantic, while the European model has a weak system near New Orleans. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps and graphics.

We do note the Gulf of Mexico is warm, with SSTs of over 30 degrees (C) in many areas, so if by chance something goes get in there, rapid intensification is possible. We will watch closely in coming days, but if you have a Labor Day beach trip planned, there is absolutely no need to “panic” or change plans. Nobody knows now.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be speaking today at the Boaz Rotary Club in Marshall County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day…

Heat Levels Rising In Coming Days

| 3:38 pm August 19, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

SUMMER HEAT FINALLY ARRIVING: This summer has featured below average temperatures, and a number of mornings with record lows across Alabama and the Deep South, but we all know that good ole summer heat and humidity would clobber us at least once before the fall sets in, and sure enough an upper high will build across the Deep South in coming days bringing some of the hottest weather so far this summer.

Radar today shows most of showers and storms over the southern half of the state this afternoon; they are moving southeast.

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TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY: We rise into the mid 90s tomorrow, and upper 90s Thursday and Friday afternoon. Lots of hazy sunshine each day, and while an afternoon thunderstorm is certainly possible, they will become fewer in number, and more widely spaced.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: A 5910 meter 500 mb upper high will be parked over Alabama and the Deep South, so the weather won’t change much. Hot, hazy, and humid with highs in the upper 90s and only isolated afternoon thunderstorms.

NEXT WEEK: Heat levels begin to come down over the latter part of next week as the upper high weakens and the air aloft becomes colder. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Mostly sunny days, fair nights tomorrow through the weekend with only isolated thunderstorms. Highs 87-90, sea water temperatures from Panama City to Gulf Shores mostly in the mid 80s.

TROPICS: NHC has now has a 30 percent probability of a wave developing over the Atlantic; this wave should enter the Caribbean later this week. Social media and blogs are buzzing after the 12Z GFS model developed this into a hurricane, moving it toward Mobile Bay next week. But, this is nothing more than hype and voodoo; there is no skill in a tropical forecast 7-10 days out. We don’t even know if this can survive the dry air environment in the short term. Just something to watch; see the Weather Xtreme video for a detailed discussion and a look at the maps.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night with Dave Brown of WMC-TV in Memphis.

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I really enjoyed seeing the kids at the RISE School in Tuscaloosa this morning…. be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Loud Storms In Spots To Start The Day

| 6:07 am August 19, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: Strong storms formed during the pre-dawn hours over Central Alabama; they are producing lots of lightning and loud thunder along with heavy rain, but they are not severe. The showers and storms are moving east.

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We will maintain the chance of scattered storms through the day, although the high resolution HRRR model suggests our best risk of a storm could very well be this morning.

REST OF THE WEEK: We trend hotter and drier as an upper high builds over the Deep South. While an afternoon storm can’t be ruled out each day, they will be few and far between. Afternoon temperatures reach the upper 90s by Thursday and Friday as it will finally feel like an Alabama summer. Of course, as you might expect in August, humidity levels will be high as well.

OUR WEEKEND: Hot is the word; afternoon highs will be between 96 and 100 degrees with hazy, humid days and fair nights. An afternoon storm is possible Saturday and Sunday, but they will remain widely separated.

NEXT WEEK: The heat ridge holds early in the week, but temperatures should trend downward toward the end of the week as the ridge breaks down. Afternoon storms should also become more numerous by Thursday and Friday (August 28-29). See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights through the weekend with only isolated thunderstorms from Panama City to Gulf Shores; highs will be in the 87 to 90 degree range. The sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 85 degrees.

TROPICS: Two waves are moving through the middle of the Atlantic, but development in the short term is not likely due to the vast amount of dry air in place.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

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I will be speaking at the Rise Program for children in Tuscaloosa this morning… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day….

Loud Pre-Dawn Storms

| 4:57 am August 19, 2014

A cluster of strong storms has formed over Central Alabama early this morning…

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Storms are producing lots of lighting and loud thunder and heavy rain, but they are not severe. These storms are moving east.

Look for a fresh discussion and new Weather Xtreme video shortly…

The Heat Cranks Up Later This Week

| 3:29 pm August 18, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

ACTIVE AFTERNOON: As expected, we have scattered to numerous showers and strong thunderstorms across the great state of Alabama this afternoon thanks to an upper impulse south of Memphis moving our way. Torrential rain was falling over the Birmingham metro as I write this at 3:15 p.m.

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Heavier storms are producing torrential rain, gusty winds, and very frequent lighting. The showers and storms are moving east, and will die down late tonight.

REST OF THE WEEK: Showers and storms become more scattered in nature tomorrow as the air aloft becomes warmer, and we trend toward a hot and mostly dry pattern Wednesday through Friday thanks to an upper high building over the region. While we can’t rule out a shower or storm somewhere during the afternoon and evening hours on these three days, most communities will be rain-free, with highs in the mid to upper 90s as it will finally feel like summer in Alabama.

HOT WEEKEND: Afternoon highs in the upper 90s are likely this weekend, with only widely scattered afternoon storms both days. Should be the hottest so far this summer.

Heat levels will slowly back down next week as the upper high weakens and drifts to the west. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and details.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Just a few widely scattered storms tomorrow, otherwise mostly sunny days and fair nights through Friday. The weekend should feature mostly sunny days as well with only isolated storms. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the 87 to 90 degree range, with sea water temperatures mostly in the mid 80s.

TROPICS: All is quiet and tropical storm formation is not expected across the Atlantic basin this week.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it live on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around Alabama, or on the web here.

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Showers/Storms Likely Later Today

| 6:06 am August 18, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: Some heavy rain is falling this morning over the Tennessee Valley region of extreme North Alabama at daybreak; these showers and storms are moving east. No rain for the I-20/59 corridor to the south.

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THE DAY AHEAD: Showers and storms will form over Central Alabama later today and early tonight… any one spot will have a 60-70 percent chance of getting wet. It won’t rain everywhere, but today will offer the highest coverage of storms this week.

Some of the storms will pack a punch; SPC has low end 5 percent severe weather possibilities in place for much of North/Central Alabama. Storms will produce heavy rain, lots of lightning, and a wet microburst can’t be ruled out in a few spots. Today’s high will be in the 87 to 90 degree range.

REST OF THE WEEK: Showers and storms will thin out tomorrow as an upper high begins to build across the region, and that big 5940 meter 500 mb ridge should mean dry and hot weather for the state Wednesday through Friday, with mostly sunny days and afternoon temperatures rising into the mid to upper 90s.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: The ridge weakens slightly, but the weather still looks mostly dry and hot Saturday and Sunday. Highs in the mid 90s… if we do see an afternoon storm, the better chance will come on Sunday. But, they will be widely scattered.

NEXT WEEK Temperatures will gradually trend downward, with a better chance of scattered showers and storms by mid-week. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

GULF COAST WEATHER: About 5 to 7 hours of sun today on the coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Then, mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only isolated storms tomorrow through the weekend. Highs will be in the 87 to 90 degree range on the immediate coast, and the sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 84 degrees.

TROPICS: A weak impulse is moving across the Central Atlantic, but dry air surrounds the system, and tropical storm formation is not expected over the next few days.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon… enjoy the day…

Heat/Moisture Levels To Rise In Coming Days

| 3:41 pm August 15, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

ANOTHER DRY DAY: No rain on radar this afternoon, and temperatures remain below average with most communities over North and Central Alabama in the 80s…

Temperatures

Tonight will be clear and pleasant with a low in the mid 60s; a few of the cooler pockets over Northeast Alabama could visit the upper 50s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Alabama’s weather will remain dry tomorrow with a high around 90, but we will introduce the risk of a few scattered showers or thunderstorms Sunday afternoon as moisture levels rise. Temperatures should reach the low 90s Sunday afternoon.

NEXT WEEK: Scattered showers and storms become more likely Monday through Wednesday in a moist, unstable airmass across Alabama with low 90s each afternoon. Then, upper ridging will build late in the week with temperatures moving into the mid 90s with a decrease in the number of showers and storms. Hot weather will continue into the following weekend (August 23-24)… see the Weather Xtreme video for the details and graphics.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Mostly sunny weather continues tomorrow from Panama City to Gulf Shores, then a few scattered storms will show up Sunday through much of next week, but still we project at least 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day. Highs remain in the upper 80s in the immediate coast, with sea water temperatures generally in the mid 80s.

TROPICS: The African wave train is picking up, but the waves are having a very hard time as they move west/northwest due to dry air and cooler than average ocean water, and tropical storm formation is not expected through the weekend.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday… my next video will be posted bright and early Monday morning by 7:00 a.m. Enjoy the weekend!