Clouds are thick across Central Alabama on this Sunday afternoon. There is some fog as well as low level moisture is starting to seep into the area from the south, warming those dewpoints. We will be in the upper 40s overnight.
There is a surface low along the coast of the Florida Panhandle, sliding east. The main surface low is building to the east of Brownsville this afternoon. It will bring the main rain and storms tomorrow night.
In between, we remain in a strong southwesterly flow aloft. It is shaking out a few showers from time to time.
There is a confluence zone right along I-59 that is leading to some enhanced enhanced showers along I-59 near and northeast of Meridian. These heavier showers will move across areas along and south of I-20 over the next few hours.
As the surface low moves northeast, additional moisture will surge into Alabama from the south and more showers will start arriving later tonight. Expect waves of rain tomorrow, with thunder eventually being mixed in.
if the warm front comes far enough north, storms could be strong tomorrow night with a few reports of damaging winds or even isolated tornadoes. The main severe weather threat is from Moundville to Clanton to Auburn and back to the south.
Rainfall amounts should be around 1.25 inches through Tuesday morning.
An arctic surge will arrive Thursday with a chance of a few showers, but not much beneficial rain. Highs on Friday will remain in the 30s mostly with a few spots across North Alabama not getting above freezing. We will be in the lower 20s by Saturday morning.
Rain is about to end in the Birmingham metro area, but not before leaving 1.74 inches at my house in Vestavia for a three day total of 3.40 inches. Thank you!
The tornado watch was allowed to expire at 10 a.m. and was not reissued for western Alabama. A new tornado watch was just issued for Barbour, Bullock, Chambers, Elmore, Lee, Lowndes, Macon, Montgomery, Pike, Randolph, Russell and Tallapoosa Counties till 5:00 PM CST.
There are warnings ahead of the line in South Alabama, for parts of Wilcox, Monroe, Butler and Conecuh Counties. There is a slight risk severe weather outlook for areas east of a line from Centre to Clanton to Grove Hill, but that will shoved eastward along with the storms all day. Storms could become severe ahead of the line as the airmass destabilizes with daytime heating over southeastern portions of the area.
National Weather Service survey teams from Birmingham and Huntsville are going over the damage from last nights storms. In the Tennessee Valley, three people died and four children were critically injured in the Rosalie area of Jackson county by an apparent tornado. The same tornado damaged 60 structures in the Ider community in DeKalb County, with possibly 25 destroyed. There were approximately injuries with 10 individuals still hospitalized.
Birmingham Survey Team 1 has confirmed a tornado in Pickens County north of US 82 on CR 35. No determination on length/width, but so far it is at EF1 strength.
Birmingham Survey Team 2 has confirmed tornado damage in Winston County in the Arley area and towards the Helicon FD. So far that looks like EF1 damage.
The NWS has cleared Walker, Greene and Sumter Counties from the tornado watch.
The watch continues until 10 a.m. for the narrow strip of counties outlined in purple.
The line of rain and some thunder continues to push eastward. The heaviest rain is just entering the Birmingham Metro area at this time. The line is progressing, so the heaviest rain will last about 20 minutes with a general rain for about an hour behind it.
The line moving a little faster now unfortunately means the rain won’t last as long as we had hoped. Still, you could pick up one half inch of rain pretty quickly with up to an inch in the general rainfall.
Flash flood warnings continue for Cullman, Marshall, Madison, Morgan, DeKalb and Jackson Counties. A large part of North Alabama north of I-59 picked up 1-5 inches overnight with the heaviest rain over the northwestern quarter of the state.
Our line of storms is growing in size and intensity early this morning. It extends from near Huntsville to Winfield in Marion County to near Columbus MS to Jackson and into Central Louisiana.
There are several severe thunderstorm warnings across the Tennessee Valley and one tornado along the Tennessee borer in Jackson County.
There are no discrete storms ahead of the main line now, and hence less in the way of warnings. But there is still a decent supply of instability and strong wind shear ahead of the line of storms, so severe weather is still possible, including tornadoes. A tornado watch remains in effect until 5 a.m. Additional tornado watches will be required later this morning almost certainly.
Cloud tops are cooling over southwestern Mississippi, where the storms are becoming quite strong. As these storms continue to expand and grow, heavy rains will become a threat as they expand northeastward. This heavy rain could spread into Central Alabama later this morning. We need the rain, but hopefully it won’t come at the expense of flash flooding.
There is also a second confluent zone developing ahead of the main line along and south of I-59 in West Alabama. This could spell more heavy rain with time.
The NWS is not going to issue a warning for the storm moving into Pickens County right now.
It is approaching Macedonia in NW Pickens County.
It is the one isolated storm ahead of the now nearly solid squall line. It will pass just west of Reform it appears.
The storm is weaker but we will be monitoring it.