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Nearly Perfect Autumn Day

| 7:01 am October 19, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

The weather doesn’t get much better than what we will see today. Dry, cool air across the state this morning allowed temperatures to fall into the 40s with upper 30s across Northeast Alabama. With only high cirrus clouds in the sky we should see highs climb into the lower 70s.

In the tropics, Gonzalo was expected to become an extratropical storm today as it continued to accelerate rapidly into the northern Atlantic.

The upper trough over the Mid-Atlantic states will rotate across New England and into the Canadian Maritime provinces Monday as a strong short wave close on the heels of that low digs into the Great Lakes area. This will drag another cold front into and across the Southeast US on Tuesday. Since moisture will not have a chance to return, this front is also expected to pass through without any precipitation associated with it. It will also bring another cool down with lows returning into the 40s.

The upper air pattern remains fast with a ridge affecting us Wednesday and Thursday as the upper trough forms a closed low over the Mid-Atlantic states. We’re on the dry side of things so look for plenty of sunshine and highs only around 70 on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Friday into Sunday, a short wave trough will move from Iowa southeastward across the Southeast US digging a deep trough into North Florida. However, without any signs of moisture for the trough to work with, it should come through the Southeast dry with only some middle or high clouds to mark its passage. This should bring great weather for high school football on Friday evening.

If your plans include a trip to the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida, the weather will be dry for the week ahead with highs around 80 dipping into the upper 70s for much of the middle and latter part of the week ahead.

The GFS is showing another good trough moving through the Central US around the 28th of October which could bring a chance for rain to Central Alabama. That is followed by another ridge as we enter November.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray
Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

James Spann will have the next Weather Xtreme Video here on Monday morning. Enjoy the lovely autumn weather today. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Cold Front Brings Cool Down

| 7:14 am October 18, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Dry and pleasant weather is expected to fill the forecast for the next seven days. In fact, we might go all the way to November before the next good rain event for Central Alabama.

A cold front was making its way through Alabama this morning and will usher in some cooler and drier air once again. Highs yesterday made it into the lower 80s for most locations, but the cold front will keep temperatures in check today with highs in the middle 70s.

In the Atlantic, Gonzalo has moved by Bermuda will continue to weaken as it accelerates northeast across the northern Atlantic. In the Pacific, Trudy was along the western coast of Mexico and weakening as it moved slowly ashore.

For those heading to football events today, Alabama hosts Texas A&M at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa with a 2:30 pm kickoff. The sky will be sunny; 74 degrees at kickoff, upper 60s by the fourth quarter. And the UAB Blazers are on the road playing Middle Tennessee State in Murfreesboro (2:30 pm kickoff). Again, a perfect day for football with a sunny sky. Temperatures will fall from near 69 at kickoff to near 62 by the final whistle.

And for the races at Talladega, sunny pleasant days, fair cool nights through the weekend. Afternoon highs today and Sunday will be in the low to mid 70s. Don’t think you could ask for better weather for NASCAR fans.

The weather is expected to stay dry for the week ahead, but the weather pattern remains pretty active. The upper trough responsible for bringing the dry cold front through the state today will move briskly off the Atlantic coast by Sunday. But another trough is forecast to drop in right behind the first one. This one is forecast to close off over the Mid-Atlantic states Wednesday which keeps us on the dry side with a cool, but not especially cold, northwesterly flow. Look for another dry cold front around Wednesday which will drop temperatures back into the lower 70s for highs.

The upper closed low moves off on Friday and Saturday leaving behind troughiness over the Southeast US. So all in all, it looks like dry weather for the week ahead as temperatures warm a little for the middle of the week and then cool off again back to seasonal values for the latter part of the week.

Looking out into voodoo country, the GFS maintains a broad ridge over the eastern half of the country which should keep us dry until early November.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray
Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted here by 8 am or so on Sunday. Enjoy this lovely day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

WeatherBrains 455: I Generate My Own Backlight

| 5:15 am October 15, 2014

WeatherBrains Episode 455 is now online (October 14, 2014). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Tonight we talk Weather Apps. But joining us as a guest is Dr. Kevin Kloesel, University Meteorologist at Oklahoma University.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 102 at Arvin, CA, and 16 at 1 mile east of Dillon, CO
  • Gonzalo becomes a major hurricane
  • Severe weather delayed WeatherBrains last night with severe weather in the Carolinas
  • Millions in path of severe storms
  • Great Fall weather coming in behind this system
  • and more!
  • Our email bag officer brings the latest information coming from our listeners. And we appreciate hearing from listeners!

    From The Weather Center:

    WeatherBrains 101: Next week we see the implementation of some changes to the severe weather outlooks prepared by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK, so for this episode of 101 we take a look at those changes and the definitions of some new terms like “marginal” and “enhanced.”

    Listener SurveyListener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

    Web Sites from Episode 455:

    Protecting Large Outdoor Campus Events from Weather

    Apps Discussed on This Episode (list may not show all of the apps discussed)

    RadarScope My-Cast Weather
    WeatherGeekPro QuickWeather
    Raindar NWS Mobile Site
    SPC Mobile Site mPing
    MyWarn.com WeatherBug
    ABC 3340 Weather App James Spann 24/7 Weather App
    AlertFM RainAware
    WeatherUnderground AeroWeather
    TweetBot Soundings by WeatherWary
    Outsider App WindScape

    Picks of the Week:

    Nate Johnson – King of Click

    Kevin Kloesel – Houston/Galveston NWS Office

    Brian Peters – No Pick – gets the fog horn!

    John Scala – Arctic Seas Ice Low But Antarctic High

    Rick Smith – Tagboard for NWA

    James Spann – Tsunami Information

    Aubrey Urbanowicz – Weather of Christopher Columbus

    SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

    The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

    Audible.com graphic

    Showers and Warmth Continue

    | 7:03 am October 12, 2014

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    As we gear up for the approach of a very dynamic system late Monday and early Tuesday, we will be staying warm and unsettled with scattered showers a possibility through Monday. Highs today should be in the lower and middle 80s with a mix of sun and clouds and those scattered showers. That frontal boundary will gradually wash out over the next 24 hours as a deep trough takes shape just to our west.

    A strong impulse coming out of the Rockies will dig a deep trough into the Central US generating a surface low over Oklahoma that will move to the northeast into the Great Lakes by Tuesday afternoon. The strong southerly flow will bring good low level moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico. That along with strong low level jet will set the stage for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms over a large portion of the Lower and Middle Mississippi River Valley Monday and into early Tuesday. For Central Alabama, it looks like the main threat for strong to severe storms will come in the 9 pm Monday to noon Tuesday time frame. Shear valleys are sufficient to support rotating storms so there is a risk of tornadoes along with damaging thunderstorm wind.

    This dynamic system should move through Central Alabama by early Tuesday afternoon with the severe weather risk shifting into Georgia for Day 3 or Tuesday. Some clearing may occur but it looks like there could be some wrap around cloudiness into Wednesday before we see a return to full sunshine.

    This system won’t be tapping into any really cold air but we should cool down nicely with lows on Wednesday and Thursday morning dipping into the 40s with afternoon highs in the lower 70s. That will certainly feel nice.

    The weather pattern remains fairly active for October with another trough forecast to come across the Great Lakes on Friday. But this system appears to stay well north of us thanks in part to weak ridging following the strong system Monday and Tuesday. This next system will probably drag a front into the eastern US late in the week, however, it looks like we don’t see any significant moisture return, so we should stay dry for the latter part of the week and into next weekend. That will be great for Friday night high school football and college games on Saturday.

    In the tropics, Fay transitioned from a sub-tropical storm into a tropical storm yesterday and was brushing by Bermuda this morning. Fay will continue into the North Atlantic on an east to northeast track. Another area of disturbed weather just to the east of the Lesser Antilles shows some potential for development, but this system appears likely to recurve into the Atlantic away from the southern US just as Fay has done.

    Beach visitors will have to contend with showers today and Monday along with some risk for severe storms on Monday into the first half of Tuesday. Lows will be in the lower 70s and highs in the lower 80s. After Tuesday, the weather turns dry along the coast with highs around 80 and lows in the lower 60s. Water temperatures were running in the middle 70s along the Alabama coastal area.

    Looking into voodoo country, October appears to remain more active than we usually expect for this, the driest month of the year for Central Alabama. The GFS continued to show another deep trough over the eastern third of the country around the 21st/22nd time frame which would spell another round of rain and storms. The good news is that there does not appear to be any sign of any extreme temperature changes for Week 2.

    And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

    James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray
    Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

    James Spann will have the next Weather Xtreme Video here on Monday morning. Check back here for updates on this evolving weather system. Have a great day and Godspeed.

    -Brian-

    Unsettled Weather Through Tuesday

    | 7:51 am October 11, 2014

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    October of 2014 is not living up to the typical characteristics of an October as the weather pattern remains quite unsettled for the next several days. Radar this morning showed showers across the northern third of Alabama along a stationary frontal boundary. Showers will be ending temporarily from the west this morning before additional showers affect us this afternoon.

    For those heading to football games, rain gear is probably a good idea for the games. Auburn takes on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville (2:30 pm kickoff). The sky will be mostly cloudy with a kickoff temperature near 80 degrees; there is a good chance of showers or thunderstorms during the game. Temperatures will fall into the lower 70s by the final whistle.

    Alabama is on the road as they play Arkansas at Fayetteville (5:00 pm kickoff). Showers and storms are possible. The temperature will be in the upper 50s all day and will drop into the lower 50s by the fourth quarter.

    UAB Blazers host North Texas (2:30 pm kickoff) at Legion Field. The sky will be mostly cloudy with showers and storms possible, and temperatures will fall from near 82 degrees at kickoff to around 74 by the fourth quarter.

    The unsettled weather continues into Sunday though it looks like showers will be somewhat less numerous than today. By Monday a very dynamic weather system aloft is forecast to bring a deep trough along with a closed low across the Central Plains with a large area of potentially severe weather from the Lower Mississippi River Valley into Ohio and Indiana. CAPE values are forecast to be into the 1000-2000 j/kg range and shear values will also be sufficient for the possibility of tornadoes. It does look like the system will produce a squall line that will move through Central Alabama late Monday and early Tuesday with damaging wind likely.

    The upper low and trough will move by quickly on Tuesday so look for rapid clearing and much cooler temperatures by Wednesday morning with readings down into the 40s. Wednesday should be a great day with highs into the lower 70s.

    The main westerlies stay north of us through the end of the week and into next weekend so we should have dry weather with seasonal temperatures – lows in the 50s and highs in the middle and upper 70s.

    Subtropical storm Fay is churning in the Atlantic and not expected to affect the US. Bermuda is under a tropical storm warning as the storm passes just southeast of the island. Two other areas of disturbed weather were noted in the South Atlantic but neither is likely to become a storm in the next couple of days. The disturbance just east of the Leeward Islands is forecast to move into an area more conducive for development early next week. Forecasts indicate that the system should recurve east of the Bahamas.

    Looking briefly into voodoo country, the weather stays unsettled with yet another deep trough forecast over the eastern third of the country around the 20th and 21st. And by the end of the month, the GFS suggests a closed low near the Four Corners area which could keep the Southeast in a wet pattern.

    And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

    James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray
    Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

    I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 am or so on Sunday. Check back here for later updates on the weather situation. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

    -Brian-

    WeatherBrains 454: I Wasn’t the First Choice?

    | 5:15 am October 7, 2014

    WeatherBrains Episode 454 is now online (October 6, 2014). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

    Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is the Program Chair for the upcoming 39th Annual Meeting of the National Weather Association. He is the Science and Operations Officer for the National Weather Service in Salt Lake City, UT. Randy Graham, welcome to WeatherBrains! Randy has all the updates on the National Weather Association Annual Meeting for 2014.

    Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 107 at Death Valley, CA, and 20 at Bodie State Park, CA
  • Kevin does the show on the floor with boxes
  • Bill joins to us for Ardmore, OK
  • NWA theme – research into operations and communicating the information
  • Thunderstorms with hail in the Southeast US
  • Atlantic Tropical Basin still quiet; Simon weakening and moving into Baja California
  • And don’t miss some of the football chat
  • and more!
  • Our email bag officer is out so no mail bag.

    From The Weather Center:

    WeatherBrains 101: We are out of the summer season but outflow boundaries are always a fascinating topic. So this episode we take a look at some of the characteristics of outflow boundaries.

    Listener SurveyListener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

    Web Sites from Episode 454:

    NWS Salt Lake City, UT

    National Weather Association Conference

    The Leonardo in Salt Lake City

    Picks of the Week:

    Randy Graham – Ensemble Situational Awareness Table

    Bill Murray – NWA Blog

    Brian Peters – Weather Prediction Center

    Kevin Selle – Bails with bandwidth issues

    James Spann – WCM Page at SPC

    SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

    The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

    Audible.com graphic

    Chilly Start But a Warm Afternoon

    | 7:43 am October 5, 2014

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    It was a chilly start to this Sunday morning with some light frost reported across the northeast quadrant of Alabama. Skywatcher Vic Bell at Black Creek reported a low of 32 degrees, his earliest freeze ever by about four days. With clear skies we should see the morning chill give way to a warm afternoon as highs climb into the middle 70s.

    The surface high will slide east and northeast of us Monday allowing a quick return of warm moist air to our west and northwest. This quick return along with a strong short wave moving through the trough situated over the eastern US will set the stage for possible severe weather in a fairly narrow band just to our north and northwest. SPC has outlined a slight risk area that encompasses places like Nashville, Memphis, Tupelo, Muscle Shoals, and Huntsville. CAPE and helicity values support the idea of supercell development. Cold air aloft will support a large hail threat while the shear also supports a tornado threat.

    The fast moving short wave will zip by Tuesday ending the threat of rain and storms. But the pattern remains challenging as we come under a brief period of ridging for Wednesday and Thursday before we have to deal with the remnants of Simon. The GFS suggests a weak disturbance, remnants of Simon, will move across the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Friday and Saturday bringing clouds and showers to Central Alabama. The moisture will stick around into Sunday before another short wave coming out of the Central Plains will bring an end to rain chances early into voodoo country.

    For beach goers, the weather looks dry for much of the week ahead with highs in the lower 80s and lows around 70. Gulf water temperature continues to be in the lower to middle 70s along the Alabama and Northwest Florida coastline.

    Looking into week 2, the GFS is sowing another substantial trough around the 14th/15th time frame with the potential for some tropical mischief. This is voodoo country after all. The trough over the eastern US remains the look out to the 20th.

    And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

    James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray
    Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

    James Spann will have the next Weather Xtreme Video here on Monday morning. Enjoy another wonderful Fall day as our temperatures warm up. Godspeed.

    -Brian-

    Nice Cool Weekend Shaping Up

    | 7:38 am October 4, 2014

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    After a stormy start to the day on Friday, the colder air with the front has been slow to arrive, but a steady north wind has brought some of the coldest air of the season to the Southeast US for us to enjoy this weekend. Look for highs to rise into the middle 60s with plenty of sunshine today. Clear skies Sunday morning will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 40s with some spots dipping into the 30s. These normally chillier locations might even see a bit of frost, but it doesn’t look like it will be widespread for us.

    Weather for football today will be fabulous. Alabama travels to Ole Miss for a game that kicks off at 2:30 in Oxford, MS. The weather will be great with plenty of sunshine and a temperature of about 68 degrees at kickoff with low humidity and a pleasant north breeze. Temperatures will fall to near 60 degrees by the final whistle. Auburn hosts LSU this evening (6:00 pm kickoff) at Jordan-Hare Stadium. A perfect night for football with a clear sky; 60 degrees at kickoff, with lower 50s by the second half, so a jacket will be in order. And UAB plays at Western Kentucky this evening (6:00 pm kickoff) where it will be a clear with a cool night in Bowling Green with 55 degrees at kickoff, then about 45 degrees by the fourth quarter. Anyone going to this game will need a jacket.

    The deep upper trough will stay in place through Monday, but the surface high will move across to the Southeast US coast on Monday bringing a rather quick return of warm, moist weather. An impulse moving through the trough will bring scattered thunderstorms to North Alabama Monday evening and into our area Tuesday. This should be a fairly fast moving system which will rapidly exit to the northeast Tuesday evening. An upper ridge will build briefly into the area and this will bring dry weather once again to the area on Wednesday.

    Moisture coming out of the Pacific along with a weak disturbance, the remnants of Simon, promises to bring rain back into the picture for Friday and Saturday. This is edging on voodoo country, and there are model differences this far out, so the forecast is likely to require some adjustment as this whole system evolves as we get closer to the end of the week. For now, it looks like some wet weather will be returning.

    Weather at the beach looks great for the next several days but cooler. Highs today and Sunday will be in the 70s warming into the lower 80s for next week. Low temperatures will be in the 50s for the weekend but warming into the 60s for Monday through Friday. Small chance of showers on Tuesday and again by Friday.

    Looking into Week 2 or voodoo country, the pattern remains pretty active according to the GFS with another deep trough around the 14th and general troughiness over the eastern US after that.

    Tropics remain quiet in the Atlantic Basin while Simon churns just off the coast of Mexico.

    And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

    James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray
    Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

    I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 am or so on Sunday. Enjoy this glorious Fall day. Godspeed.

    -Brian-