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Brian Peters

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Dry Today, Stormy Sunday

| 7:01 am November 22, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Surface high pressure centered over the Outer Banks area of North Carolina will allow our flow to come around our of the south today allowing temperatures to warm up into the middle 60s. Clouds will be on the increase ahead of the next weather system which will be affecting us primarily on Sunday, so most activities will be fine and dry today.

For football interests, it is a big game for the UAB Blazers as they host Marshall at Legion Field with an 11:00 am kickoff. Clouds will increase during the game, but the weather will remain dry. Temperatures will rise from near 61 at kickoff to near 65 by the fourth quarter. In Tuscaloosa, it is homecoming for Alabama versus Western Carolina with kickoff at 3:00 pm. The sky will become mostly cloudy during the game, but the weather should be dry. Expect a kickoff temperature near 68 degrees falling to near 60 by the fourth quarter. And the Auburn Tigers will host the Samford Bulldogs this evening at Jordan-Hare Stadium. The 6:00 pm kickoff will be mostly cloudy but should be dry with the temperatures in the mid 50s dropping to the lower 50s by the fourth quarter.

A strong short wave trough coming out of the southern Rockies tonight and Sunday will generate a surface low over East Texas that should move to near Jonesboro, AR, by Sunday midday. This sets the stage for severe weather potential over the Southeast US for Sunday especially along the immediate Gulf Coast. However, there is a question as to how far north the instability will reach. Both the GFS and Hi-Res NAM keep the greatest severe weather threat generally along and south of the US 80 corridor. It appears that the threat will be a mixed bag including damaging wind and isolated tornadoes. We’ll have to watch the development of this system closely to see just how far north the instability will spread.

The short wave moves quickly northeastward Sunday evening taking the surface low up into the Great Lakes and bringing the cold front through Central Alabama. The main rain threat should be over by Sunday evening or early Monday morning, however, we could see some wrap around moisture into Monday. But the greatest rainfalls of 1 to 2 inches will come during the day Sunday.

The upper air pattern features a long wave trough over the Central US through much of the week ahead, so we stay cool and below climatological values for our highs and lows as we go into Thanksgiving. Highs by Thanksgiving should climb into the lower 60s. Our 30-year average highs are around 63 and lows around 42.

Looking out to voodoo, the weather pattern remains pretty active with another wet system around December 1st and another around the 7th. Looks like things will remain busy in the weather department.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray
Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

I plan to have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 am or so on Sunday. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

WeatherBrains 460: Slip Sliding Away

| 5:15 am November 18, 2014

WeatherBrains Episode 460 is now online (November 17, 2014). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Keith Stellman, MIC, NWS Peachtree City, GAJoining us as our guest WeatherBrain tonight is Keith Stellman, Meteorologist-in-Charge of the NWS office in Peachtree City, GA. Stellman earned a bachelor’s degree in atmospheric science from Northeast Louisiana University in Monroe, LA, in 1996 and a master’s degree in meteorology from Florida State University in Tallahassee, FL, in 1999.

He started his career with the National Weather Service as a Meteorologist Intern at the Tallahassee, FL, office in 1997. He served as a Senior Hydrologic Forecaster and Senior Hydrometeorologist at the Lower Mississippi and West Gulf River Forecast Centers before joining the Southern Region Headquarters team as the Regional Training Officer and then as the Techniques Development Meteorologist. Most recently, Stellman served as the Warning Coordination Meteorologist for the NWS office in Shreveport, LA, from 2007 to August, 2012.

During his career, Stellman has conducted hundreds of interviews with local and national media including CNN, The New York Times and The Weather Channel. He has had the opportunity to serve as the NWS liaison to the State of Texas during high impact events and worked in the Texas State Emergency Operations Center during Hurricane Rita in which he personally briefed President George W. Bush. In addition, Stellman has been deployed to the National Hurricane Center as a member of the NWS Hurricane Liaison Team in which he was responsible for briefing FEMA and The White House. Not only is Stellman well versed in communication and briefing skills, he also brings a strong technological background to the office. He was a developer for the RIDGE radar GIS webpage and the River Forecast Center Precipitation Analysis GIS website. Most recently, Stellman has been part of a group to develop the Damage Assessment Toolkit, a program to help collect detailed information on damage surveys and display this information in an interactive map and meaningful way in which partners can extract the data.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 89 at Melbourne, FL, and West Palm Beach, FL, and -23 at Big Trails, WY
  • Yet another cold blast coming across the country
  • Severe weather Sunday/Monday along Gulf Coast
  • All 50 states will see below freezing temps
  • Substantial tornado in Blountstown, FL
  • and more!
  • Our email bag officer is out due to technical issues, so she’ll summarize your incoming messages next week.

    From The Weather Center:

    WeatherBrains 101: A big chill is affecting the country once again, so this week in WeatherBrains 101 we take a look at wind chill or how it feels out there. Did you know the wind chill index actually changed a little more than ten years ago?

    Listener SurveyListener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

    Web Sites from Episode 460:

    NWS Peachtree City, GA, Web Page

    1982 Alabama Ice Storm

    Wireless Emergency Alert information from the FCC

    Picks of the Week:

    Nate Johnson – METAR Remark

    Brian Peters – Nov. 17, 2013, Tornado Outbreak Survey

    John Scala – Info on book, Wizards, Aliens, and Starships

    Rick Smith – NWS Directives page

    James Spann – Earthquake Warning Service

    SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

    The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

    Audible.com graphic

    Here Comes the Rain

    | 7:08 am November 16, 2014

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    After a gorgeous November Saturday that was a little chilly but still warmer than Friday, clouds moved in overnight and the rain was heading our way. A surface low will track across North Alabama tonight from a position near Lake Charles this morning. The surface low is in response to a strong trough digging into the Central US that will bring another shot of very cold air to Alabama for Tuesday and Wednesday. The surface low will move quickly northeastward to the Mid-Atlantic states by Monday afternoon bringing an end to the rain as the cold air arrives here. And this air will be cold! I do not expect us to get out of the 40s on Monday and by Tuesday morning we could see temperature readings in the teens. The record low for Birmingham for Tuesday morning is 20, so a new record low is possible.

    The severe weather threat should be confined to the immediate coastal area of the Central Gulf coast today and across North Florida and southern Georgia on Monday. A band of snow with the surface low will affect the Central US in a line from about Amarillo, TX, to Erie, PA, with snow amounts ranging from 1 to 4 inches in that fairly narrow band where winter weather advisories are in effect.

    With a deep trough in place Monday and Tuesday, cold air will settle into Central Alabama with readings Monday only in the 40s. By Tuesday morning, we could see record low temperatures in Central Alabama with values in the teens. Wednesday morning could by nearly as cold as the surface high settles into the Southeast US.

    Temperatures should moderate some by the end of the week with highs by Thursday and Friday into the 50s. But the fast moving flow is forecast to bring another short wave across the southern tier of the US which could bring rain back into the picture as early as Friday. Timing of this system has changed from the model runs yesterday, so confidence in the onset of our next wet event is not very high at the moment. But with another strong upper trough forecast to affect us by Sunday, we could see another cold rain event.

    Just as we saw yesterday, the GFS continues to present a cold week 2. Another very deep trough around November 25th could spell another winter weather event for the middle Mississippi River Valley and the Tennessee and Ohio River valleys, but we’re dealing with voodoo country, so there is no skill in trying to forecast a specific event – just something to keep an eye on.

    And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

    James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray
    Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

    James Spann should be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Monday morning. I’m looking forward to my role as honorary ringmaster at the Shriner Circus going on at the Pelham Civic Center today. Stay dry and Godspeed.

    -Brian-

    Warmer, Wetter Weather Ahead

    | 7:27 am November 15, 2014

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    It’s a downright chilly start to the day with temperature readings across Central Alabama well down into the 20s. Birmingham set a new record low temperature yesterday morning with the 23 degrees breaking the old record of 24 set in 1986. With plenty of sunshine today, we should see temperatures climb nicely into the lower 50s for afternoon highs.

    FOOTBALL FORECAST: The biggest college game in the country is in Tuscaloosa today as Mississippi State takes on Alabama. Temperatures at kickoff, 2:30 pm, will be around 52 degrees with a sunny sky, but as the sun goes down temperatures will drop quickly into the 40s during the second half. Auburn plays in Athens, GA, where they take on the Georgia Bulldogs this evening with a 6:15 pm kickoff. Bundle up if you are going to this game. The weather will be dry but the temperature will be around 42 degrees at kickoff with temperatures dropping slowly through the 30s during the game.

    The nearly zonal flow aloft will take on a much sharper look as another deep trough digs into the eastern US. A surface low will move out of the Northwest Gulf of Mexico Sunday and move quickly up to the Mid-Atlantic states by midday Monday. This will spread clouds and a cold rain across Central Alabama Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. With the quickly traveling low center, the rain should come to an end across our area by the middle of the day Monday. Rainfall amounts are likely to be around 1 inch for most locations and we can sure use the rain since we’ve been relatively dry.

    The upper level flow remains dominated by a trough over the astern half of the country while a surface high will be the prevailing feature at the surface. This should give us several days of dry weather from Tuesday through Friday.

    By the very end of the week another strong short wave is forecast to come at us from the Four Corners area of the Southwest US. This should bring us another round of wet weather for next weekend. But this is on the edge of voodoo country so the timing for this event may need to be adjusted as we watch the development of this next system.

    An speaking of voodoo country. The GFS continues to show a chilly November as the upper air pattern remains with a substantial trough over the eastern half of the country. The message here is that we probably won’t be seeing any really warm weather for awhile.

    And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

    James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray
    Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

    I had a great time Thursday evening speaking to the Navajo Hills Garden Club. I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted here by 8 am or so on Sunday morning. Stay up with the latest weather by checking back here often. Have a great day and Godspeed.

    -Brian-

    WeatherBrains 459: Millions in the Bulls Eye

    | 5:15 am November 11, 2014

    WeatherBrains Episode 459 is now online (November 10, 2014). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

    Dr. Piotr DomaszczynskiTonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at NASA’s Global Precipitation Measurement Ground Validation Unit. He received his BS and MS in Electrical Engineering from The Warsaw University of Technology and PhD in Water Resources Engineering from The University of Iowa. Dr. Piotr Domaszczynski, welcome to WeatherBrains.

    Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 88 at Blythe, CA, and Elsinore, CA, and 1 at Great Falls, MT
  • Arctic air flooding the Nation
  • Breaking News: Fropa in Norman, OK, during the show
  • Tropical Atlantic is quiet as is severe weather
  • and more!
  • Our email bag officer is continuing to handle the incoming messages from our listeners.

    From The Weather Center:

    WeatherBrains 101: A tweet I noted last week prompted me to take a look at the naming of moons by Native Americans. While it was the Name “Full Beaver Moon” that got my attention, it was interesting to find out that some of those names had their origins with weather events.

    Listener SurveyListener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

    Web Sites from Episode 459:

    GPM Global Precipitation Measurement

    TRMM Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission

    Sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald

    Picks of the Week:

    Piotr Domaszczynski – Humbled by Forecast Decisions

    Bill Murray – Weather Watch S6E3

    Brian Peters – NHC’s National Map of Storm Surge Risk

    John Scala – Satellite animation of Super Typhoon Nuri

    Rick Smith – Great Blue Norther of November 11, 1911

    James Spann – Sinking of SS Edmund Fitzgerald

    Aubrey Urbanowicz – Winter in Less than 4 hours

    SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

    The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

    Audible.com graphic

    Cool Today but Warmer Mon & Tue

    | 7:14 am November 9, 2014

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    Another cold front moved through the state last night and early this morning with much of the cloudiness associated with it now east of Central Alabama. With a good supply of sunshine, highs should climb into the lower and middle 60s across the area.

    Weak ridging will keep our weather dry and warmer for Monday and Tuesday as highs climb into the 70s – just slightly above our typical highs for this time of year. But don’t get too comfortable with the warm weather since the bottom is going to fall out of the temperatures for the end of the week.

    A large closed low over the western Great Lakes will carve out a trough over the eastern US Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front moves through the area. Showers will be possible with the front on Tuesday night and into the first half of Wednesday, but moisture will be limited so don’t look for a lot of rain. Rainfall totals are forecast to be fairly light, probably less than a quarter of an inch for those places that do see a shower. After the front passes, the cold air moves into the Southeast US.

    Depending on the exact timing of the frontal passage, Wednesday could be one of those days where temperatures hold steady or fall throughout the day as the wind comes around to the northwest with some chilly gusts. Thursday and Friday will be quite chilly with lows near freezing and daily highs struggling to get out of the 40s.

    Another substantial wave moves through the trough on Sunday and the GFS suggests a fairly wet event for the Southeastern US then. With the dry weather we’ve seen over the last several weeks, we could use a good soaker. But there is also a downside to this situation. It will be possible for a shot at winter weather somewhere in the Tennessee and Ohio River valleys. But we are much too early to be specific on an exact location or the exact nature of the event, but the pattern certainly supports this idea, so we’ll need to keep a wary eye on future model runs.

    As we get out further into voodoo, the pattern remains pretty active with another substantial short wave around the 22nd followed quickly by yet another trough around the 24th.

    And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

    James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray
    Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

    James Spann will be up first thing on Monday morning with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. Enjoy the lovely Fall weather before the chill next week. Godspeed.

    -Brian-

    Warmer After a Chilly Start

    | 7:23 am November 8, 2014

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    Alabama’s weather getting off to a chilly start this morning with morning temperatures mainly in the lower half of the 30s. Our Skywatcher in Black Creek reported a good frost this morning with a low of 27. We should see plenty of sunshine today so I expect temperatures to warm into the lower and middle 60s, but those values will still be 5 to 7 degrees below our seasonal average for highs for early November.

    For football-goers, Auburn hosts Texas A&M this afternoon at 2:30 at Jordan-Hare Stadium; the sky will be sunny with a kickoff temperature near 62 degrees, falling into the 50s by the fourth quarter. Alabama plays on the road; they take on LSU tonight in Baton Rouge where the sky will be mostly fair; temperatures will fall from near 60 at kickoff into the mid 50s during the second half. And UAB will host Louisiana Tech at Legion Field today with an 11:00 am kickoff. There will be a sunny sky with 58 degrees at kickoff, and lower 60s by the fourth quarter.

    It should be another nice Fall day on Sunday. A good supply of sunshine will not help overcome the effects of a weak front passing through Central Alabama with highs once again in the lower 60s.

    Monday and Tuesday remain dry with weak ridging aloft. We should see a fairly nice warm up with highs approaching 70 degrees, close to seasonal values. Tuesday night and Wednesday will see the approach of another cold front. There will be some moisture return, so look for showers as a good possibility on Wednesday. Like the last front, there does not appear to be enough instability to generate any thunder with the showers.

    By the end of the week, it will be getting colder, but herein lies the rub. I expect the cold air to be somewhat shallow, and the models do not typically handle shallow cold air situations very well. MOS guidance suggests highs in the 50s for Friday, but depending on the strength of this system, we might not see highs get out of the 40s. So our forecast will remain fluid for now.

    Looking out into voodoo country, the pattern remains fairly active with a couple of good shots at precipitation around the 16th and again around the 20th/21st. The pattern also keeps a chilly look with a trough over the eastern half of the country.

    And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

    James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray
    Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

    I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 am or so on Sunday. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

    -Brian-

    Frosty Start on a Cold Morning

    | 7:43 am November 2, 2014

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    Widespread frost was occurring across Central Alabama this morning as we experience the coldest morning so far for the Fall season. In fact, the coldest morning since March 26th. Skywatcher at Black Creek reported a low of 22 while my station in Helena saw a low of 28 at this writing. Also, don’t forget to set your clocks back an hour since we ended Daylight Savings Time at 2:00 am. The surface high will move east of Alabama today ushering in a gradual warmup with highs today mainly in the upper 50s. This is still fairly chilly since our typical highs should be around 71.

    As the upper ridge slides over us on Monday and Tuesday, we should warm up into the lower 70s by Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday will see another strong trough dig into the Central Plains states pushing a cold front into the Southeast US. Still some minor timing differences in the models, but it looks like our best shot for showers should come from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Instability appears to be limited, so I don’t expect to see any strong thunderstorms, just showers.

    The upper trough digs in and scoots by us on Thursday, bringing another relatively cold shot of air into the area, but not as cold as the current system. Thursday might end up being one of those days where temperatures remain steady or fall during the day as colder air advects into the area. Some wrap around moisture will keep the sky cloudy to start Friday but we should see clearing during the day. The weekend looks dry with lows in the upper 30s and highs in the lower 60s.

    The Atlantic Basin is quiet, but we are watching Vance in the Eastern Pacific. Vance is forecast to become a hurricane today, remain a hurricane for a couple of days, and then begin degrading into a depression along the west coast of Mexico at mid-week.

    Looking out into voodoo country, or Week 2, the GFS maintains a cold look to the pattern with another fairly deep trough moving through the Mississippi River Valley on the 14th. By the 17th there is troughiness over the eastern US which should keep the eastern US at and below seasonal values.

    And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

    James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray
    Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

    James Spann will be up Monday morning with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. Be sure to check back for additional notes on our weather. Have a great day and Godspeed.

    -Brian-