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WeatherBrains 452: My Bulb is Not Connected

| 5:15 am September 23, 2014

WeatherBrains Episode 452 is now online (September 22, 2014). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Tonight’s Guest Panelist is a senior forecaster at the NWS Forecast Office in Paducah, KY. Chris Noles got his start in weather in 1991 with WeatherData and joined the NWS in 1992. Chris appeared on Episode 328 on May 7, 2012, as the Guest WeatherBrain. He talked about ridiculously large tornado warning polygons.

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrains are students at Millersville University in Pennsylvania. Mike Yalch is a meteorology major with a math minor. Rachel Coulter is a senior in Meteorology.

WB Episode 452 Brains

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 108 at Death Valley, CA, and 26 at Doe Lake, MI
  • Flash flood watches in New Mexico and frost advisory in part of the Appalachians
  • No specific slight risk areas for the next three days
  • Cool across the eastern US
  • Tropics are quiet
  • and more!
  • Our email bag officer is continuing to handle the incoming messages from our listeners.

    From The Weather Center:

    WeatherBrains 101: This episode coincides with the autumnal equinox, so 101 takes a look at what the equinox is, where the name originates, and some of the characteristics of what an equinox is.

    Listener SurveyListener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

    Web Sites from Episode 452:

    Twitter Severe Weather Preparedness Q & A on Sep. 23rd

    NWS Paducah, KY

    Millersville University of Pennsylvania

    Impact-based Warnings

    Picks of the Week:

    Nate Johnson – Hurricane Hugo Review

    Chris Noles – Facebook Paducah

    Brian Peters – Gets the Fog Horn!

    John Scala – Open Atmospheric Society

    Kevin Selle – Didn’t give one!

    Rick Smith – Southmoore High School Band Half Time Show including NOAA Weather Radio

    James Spann – Live Science article on Hurricane Drought

    Aubrey Urbanowicz – Fall Foliage Guide

    Mike Yalch & Rachel Coulter – Weather Watch

    SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

    The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

    Audible.com graphic

    Another Warm Day

    | 7:05 am September 21, 2014

    * * * No Weather Xtreme Video today due to an early commitment to Ride for Kids at Barber Motorsports Park * * *

    Clear skies this morning will allow morning lows generally in the lower 60s to climb nicely into the 80s. So look for another warm day across Central Alabama with the afternoon highs climbing into the middle and upper 80s. A cold front approaching from the northwest was producing a narrow line of showers this morning in the Ohio River Valley. Due to a lack of moisture across the Southeast US, showers and storms will be limited as the cold front slides into Northwest Alabama this evening. Clouds and isolated showers will accompany the front as it moves southeastward across the state in response to the digging trough at 500 millibars. With limited moisture, rainfall amounts are expected to be light running less than a quarter of an inch for those places that see rain. Monday will also feature a breezy northwesterly flow ushering cooler air into Central Alabama. Look for morning lows to dip into the 50s across the area for Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

    The upper trough will move by Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface high slides eastward across the Ohio River Valley into the Mid Atlantic states. This will keep us dry through the week ahead with afternoon highs running generally in the lower 80s. As the high moves off into the Atlantic at the end of the week, I expect to see moisture return from the east and southeast with the potential for clouds and showers to return by next weekend.

    SPC does not have any specific areas outlined for severe weather for the next five days as the overall weather pattern remains fairly tranquil.

    And the tropics remain relatively inactive as we begin to emerge from the heart of hurricane season. One area of disturbed weather was being watched in the vicinity of the Cape Verde Islands, however, conditions were not conducive for significant development of this system which will bring some rain to the Cape Verde Islands as it remains well out in the Atlantic.

    Beach goers will enjoy a warm day today with highs in the upper 80s. There will be scattered showers Monday but then the weather should turn dry along the Gulf Coast until moisture comes back at the end of the week with isolated showers once again. Highs each day will be in the middle 80s with water temperature running in the lower 80s.

    Voodoo country looks somewhat active for us with a fairly potent system shaping up for the eastern half of the country as we enter October. Yesterday it looked like such a system would affect us around the first of October, but now the GFS holds it off a day or two. That system is followed by the development of a substantial ridge across the eastern half of the country signaling some warm days.

    And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

    James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray
    Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

    Thanks for keeping up with the weather via the Blog. James Spann will have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video on Monday morning. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

    -Brian-

    A Warm and Dry Weekend

    | 7:10 am September 20, 2014

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    High pressure off to our northeast has created a bit of a wedge pattern which has ushered in drier air to Alabama. This should provide us with a gorgeous warm weekend for the last of summer with the official start of Fall coming Monday evening. There were some clouds especially in East Central and Southeast Alabama as well as the southern portion of Georgia, but most of those should mix out by late morning Highs today will be in the middle 80s, a tad cooler in the eastern sections where the wedge will be a bit stronger, but warming into the middle and upper 80s on Sunday.

    The first really good push of cooler air will come with a cold front passing through the area on Monday morning. Moisture will be somewhat limited with the front plus it will be coming through during the early morning hours of Monday, so showers will be limited but I think we have a chance to see some showers. Rainfall amounts should be less than a quarter of an inch in spots that do see a shower.

    After the front comes through on Monday morning, high pressure to our north will bring cooler and drier air to Alabama. Cooler is relative, though, as we will continue to see highs generally in the lower 80s for the week ahead. The biggest change will come in the morning lows that will dip down well into the 60s on Tuesday morning and by Wednesday morning we should see readings in the upper 50s with lower 50s in those cooler spots. As the upper ridge builds strong across the eastern portion of the country into the end of the week, look for high temperatures to again climb into the middle 80s with lows in the 60s.

    Headed to Tuscaloosa for the game this afternoon? Looks like a warm day with mostly sunny skies and a kickoff temperature around 85 degrees, falling into the upper 70s by the final whistle.

    Beach goers will enjoy plenty of sunshine and dry weather for the weekend. Showers will be widely scattered on Monday but dry weather returns for the rest of the week with highs in the middle 80s. Water temperature along the beaches is coming down a bit with values still in the mid 80s.

    The tropics are quiet with just one area of cloudiness being watched well out in the Atlantic south of the Cape Verde Islands. This system is not expected to develop in the short term and will stay well out to sea.

    Looking out into voodoo country, the GFS is painting a strong weather system around the first of October with a strong, closed upper low coming across the Plains states. This system has the potential to produce some severe weather possibilities. An upper ridge builds in across the Gulf after that system passes providing another period of dry weather for Alabama.

    And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

    James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray
    Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

    I’ll be filling in for Meaghan on ABC 3340 News at 6 and 10 pm today, so be sure to tune in for the latest forecast. I’m going to be assisting with announcing duties at the Birmingham Ride for Kids at Barber Motorsports Park on Sunday morning, so not too sure about the next video. I will try to post some forecast notes even if I can’t get a video done. Enjoy the marvelous warm weather and Godspeed.

    -Brian-

    Warmer with Showers Monday

    | 6:44 am September 14, 2014

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    The northerly flow across Alabama yesterday and overnight resulted in quite a gradient in temperatures and dew points. This morning dew points were in the middle 50s in the Tennessee Valley while they were still in the lower 70s in Southeast Alabama. Slightly drier air aloft managed to erode much of the cloudiness across the state overnight. Look for the best chances for showers to once again be across South Alabama where moisture values remain the highest.

    Aloft the elongated upper ridge will be subdued somewhat on Monday with the passage of a fairly strong trough moving across the Great Lakes. The trough should extend its influence far enough south to allow good chances for widespread showers and storms across Central Alabama. High pressure to the northeast of Alabama will allow moisture to return northward on Monday, too, adding to the potential for our best chances for rain in the week ahead.

    The fast moving trough will quickly exit across New England by Tuesday as the overall upper flow becomes northwesterly as the long wave trough sets up across the eastern third of the Nation. The development of this trough should begin the drying process with drier air in place for the middle and latter part of the week ahead. By the end of the week, the upper ridge over the western US will migrate eastward allowing our temperatures to warm up into the upper 80s for Friday and Saturday.

    At the beach, typical late summer weather continues along the Alabama and Northwest Florida Gulf Coast today and for most of the week ahead. Highs will be in the upper 80s, overnight lows in the upper 70s. There will be a mix of sun and clouds, with scattered showers and storms. You can expect 4 to 6 hours of sun each day with daily chances for scattered showers.

    Tropics are a tad active. Edouard is expected to achieve hurricane status sometime today while it churns northwestward in the open Atlantic before turning more northerly on Tuesday. In the Gulf of Mexico, the area of disturbed weather has become quite diffuse as it moves steadily westward across the Central Gulf with little potential for development. An area of disturbed weather west of the Cape Verde Islands shows little signs of development.

    The GFS long range progs continue to keep the idea of general troughiness across the eastern US into late September. But there is also the depiction of some tropical mischief for the Gulf near the end of the month. But you know how this can change that far into voodoo country.

    And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

    James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray
    Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

    James Spann will have the next Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Monday morning. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

    -Brian-

    Clouds but Cooler

    | 7:45 am September 13, 2014

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    The weak cold front that has been plaguing the Southeast US for the last couple of days continued to sag slowly southward and was situated across southern Alabama this morning. This has allowed slightly cooler and drier air to move into the northern half of Alabama, so I expect to see mostly cloudy skies today with scattered showers possible mainly across South Alabama. The front continued to have little to push it further southward due to an elongated ridge in the upper atmosphere.

    If you are headed to Tuscaloosa where Alabama will host Southern Miss this evening with a 5:00 pm kickoff, it looks like the sky will be occasionally cloudy, but the weather should be dry with a kickoff temperature near 80 degrees, falling through the 70s during the second half. UAB hosts Alabama A&M at Legion Field in Birmingham at 2:30 pm; the sky will be generally cloudy with only a small risk for a shower. The temperature will be around 80 degrees at kickoff, falling into the middle 70s by the final whistle.

    The forecast for the beaches: about 4 to 6 hours of sunshine along the coast from Panama City to Gulf Shores through Sunday with scattered thunderstorms; highs will be in the upper 80s. Sea water temperatures are also in the mid 80s.

    Tropics are active as expected during the the heart of tropical storm season. Edouard is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday but it is expected to remain well out in the Atlantic. Two areas of disturbed weather were noted in the Gulf of Mexico. The one near the Mexican coast is not expected to develop much as it moves westward into Mexico. The other one just off the Southwest coast of Florida is forecast to track westward and the upper level wind pattern does not appear to be very favorable for any development in the near term. Because this is in the Gulf of Mexico, it will bear watching and a Hurricane Hunter aircraft may investigate the area today.

    The ridge remains in place Sunday so isolated showers remain a possibility though we note that precipitable water values continue to drop slightly. The main moisture remains across South Alabama where the better chances for showers should be. While the westerlies remain well to our north, the GFS continued to show general troughiness over the eastern US for the middle and latter portion of the week. This is likely to keep us dry for the latter part of the week. I did note that the ECMWF was considerably drier with its solution than was the GFS.

    Looking out into voodoo, the GFS continues to keep the primary trough across the eastern third of the US, but the trough is forecast to weaken as upper ridging again develops over the Southeast US around the end of September. This could mean some warmer weather for us at the end of the month.

    And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

    James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray
    Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

    I expect to have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Sunday morning. Enjoy the cooler weather and Godspeed.

    -Brian-

    WeatherBrains 450: He’s Been Tested

    | 5:15 am September 9, 2014

    WeatherBrains Episode 450 is now online (September 8, 2014). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

    Tonight’s Guest Panelist is the co-founder and Chief Science Officer for Mano Nanotechnologies, Inc., a New York-based startup company focusing on research and development of advanced environmental sensor technology. He holds advanced degrees in meteorology and atmospheric science from Florida State University with 25 years of experience as a leader in technology and business management. He is currently working on an exciting new start up project. Dr. John Manobianco, welcome to WeatherBrains!

    Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a suggestion by listener Erick Church. He is the Chief Meteorologist for KTUZ-TV in Oklahoma City. Michael Saenz, welcome to WeatherBrains!

    Guests for WeatherBrains Episode 450

    Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 106 at Needles, CA, and Ojai, CA, and 25 at Stanley, ID
  • Tropics fairly quiet with just one area of concern south of the Cape Verde Islands
  • Small slight risk area in Iowa for today and expanding on Day 2 in much the same area
  • Discussion on Warning Coordination Meteorologist job
  • Last Super Moon of the year going on during the show
  • August a very low month for tornadoes since 1960
  • and more!
  • Our email bag officer is trying to catch up on incoming messages from our listeners. It’s a never ending job!

    From The Weather Center:

    WeatherBrains 101: This week we take a peek into history and try to find a connection between a Lutheran minister, weather observations, and a big award for cooperative weather observers. It’s interesting to see who some of the past weather geeks are.

    Listener SurveyListener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

    Web Sites from Episode 450:

    WeatherBrains Limited Edition T-shirt

    KTUZ-TV Web Site

    Spot the International Space Station

    Picks of the Week:

    Nate Johnson – Upper Air Climatology Plots

    John Manobianco – Coastal Flooding and Sea Level Rise

    Brian Peters – Galveston Meteorologist Isaac Cline

    John Scala – Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900

    Kevin Selle – Sounding Data for KDFW

    Rick Smith – Taking Turbulence out of Air Travel

    James Spann – EKDMOS version 2 Meteorgrams

    Aubrey Urbanowicz – Tornado Warning Graphic

    SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

    The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

    Audible.com graphic

    Another Summer-ish Day

    | 7:13 am September 7, 2014

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    We saw a mix of sun, clouds, and scattered showers yesterday, and today should be a lot like that. The weak frontal boundary will continue to wash out and just a slight amount of drying in the atmosphere should reduce our chances for showers as we head into the upcoming work week. But for today look for scattered showers once again with our afternoon highs reaching close to 90.

    There is not much change occurring in the upper atmosphere over the next few days. A weak trough passing today will assist with some shower production keeping the showers primarily scattered as moisture settles south of the Birmingham area. Following the moisture, the better chances for scattered showers will move into South Alabama while North and Central Alabama experience just enough of a drop in precipitable water for showers to become isolated, so that most of us stay dry. Morning lows will continue in the 68 to 72 range while afternoon highs will dance with 90 degrees on most days.

    While the main westerlies continue to hug the Canadian border for much of the week, there is a strong trough passing well to the north of us at the end of the week which will drag a front toward Alabama by Thursday. Because the main dynamics continue to stay very far north, the front is likely to stall in our vicinity. This could impact our weather for Friday with better chances for showers and storms. While the main dynamics remain well north the GFS and ECMWF seem to be in fairly good agreement on bringing drier and cooler air into our area with a large surface high to our north and northeast. This is verging on voodoo, and I would like to see the upper flow become less zonal to support the idea of the front pushing through our area.

    The tropics are ramping up a little. Three areas are being watched, but the newest area just coming off the African continent has the greatest potential for developing into a full blown tropical system in the next five days. In the eastern Pacific, Norbert is weakening as it remains offshore of the Baja Peninsula and is likely to come ashore as a depression in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame.

    For beach enthusiasts, it will be warm and humid with a mix of sun and clouds each day. Sunshine should still be fairly good with 4 to 7 hours each day. Rain chances will be a little above average each day with the best chance for rain during the afternoon and into the evening hours. Highs will be in the upper 80s each afternoon while lows will be in the upper 70s. Water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab was 86 degrees.

    As we saw yesterday with the GFS, the pattern is likely to become active in week two with a fairly strong trough developing again over the eastern US around the 16th. And the GFS keeps this idea of the troughiness in place out through the 22nd. This could certainly spell some much cooler days if this verifies correctly.

    And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

    James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray
    Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

    I expect James Spann to be have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Monday morning. Glad to see Alabama and Auburn top their opponents yesterday as well as the Florida State Seminoles. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

    -Brian-

    Mix of Sun, Clouds, and Showers

    | 6:48 am September 6, 2014

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    Summer continues to roll along with another day forecast to include scattered showers. And Sunday is likely to be a close copy to today. A weak front sagging into Alabama will give us a bit better chance for showers today and again Sunday as the front washes out. Slightly drier air will lower our chances for showers as we head into next week.

    By Tuesday and Wednesday, a weak ridge aloft will help to keep us warm with highs in the upper 80s. While moisture will be somewhat limited we’ll still have to include a small chance of showers – in the 20 to 30 percent range – until the end of the week. At the end of the week, a fairly strong trough but traveling across the Great Lakes promises to bring a front into the Southeast US. There are some timing differences between the GFS and the ECMWF with the GFS latest run coming in slightly faster with the front. We’ll have to keep an eye on this timing since it could impact the weather for high school football games next Friday.

    FOOTBALL WEATHER: Alabama hosts Florida Atlantic University (FAU) at Bryant-Denny Stadium for an 11:00a kickoff. Expect a mix of sun and clouds with the risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm during the game. The temperature will rise from near 86 at kickoff, to near 92 by the final whistle. Auburn will host San Jose State at Jordan-Hare Stadium this evening (6:00p kickoff)… it will be warm and humid with a kickoff temperature in the mid 80s; the chance of a shower or storm is about one in three, mainly during the first half of the game. Temperatures will fall into the upper 70s by the fourth quarter. UAB is on the road, playing Mississippi State at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville (2:00p kickoff). Hot and muggy conditions are likely during the game, with a kickoff temperature near 89 degrees. A shower or storm is possible during the game, but the rain won’t be continuous, and the sun will be out at times.

    Heading to the beach? Look for 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day of the weekend with a passing shower possible. Rain chances should run about 30 percent. Highs will be in the upper 80s. Sea water temperature along the Alabama and Northwest Florida coastal area was running in the middle to upper 80s.

    Tropics remain relatively quiet considering that we are at the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season. An area of disturbed weather along the Southeast US coast will bring rain to the coastal area but any development of this area will be slow to occur as it drifts slowly northeastward. An elongated area of lower pressure was situated southeast of the Cape Verde Islands, however, dry air over the tropical Atlantic is expected to limit any development of this system.

    Looking out into Week 2 or voodoo country, the GFS is painting a long wave trough position over the eastern half of the country. This could include the passage of a front or two during that time frame. Days are getting shorter as we head toward the autumnal equinox on September 22nd.

    And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

    James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray
    Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

    The next Weather Xtreme Video should be posted on Sunday morning by 8 am or so. Enjoy the day and good luck to everyone’s favorite football teams. Godspeed.

    -Brian-