Author Archive: Brian Peters

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

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Hold On! One More Hot Day!

| September 25, 2016 @ 6:43 am

Looks like one more round of hot weather before we see a change to cooler, drier weather. See the post below this one for a recap of the new record highs set yesterday.

The sky across Central Alabama showed some streaks of clouds this morning as compared to the completely clear sky we had yesterday morning. Still even with those clouds we should see a good supply of sunshine again with highs climbing to near record levels with readings in the range of 94 to 97. But perhaps this will be our last really hot day for a while, maybe even until next year!

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Beach weather looking good, too, with about 8 to 10 hours of sunshine daily on the coast from Dauphin Island to Panama City Beach through Wednesday with only widely scattered storms. Highs will be in the upper 80s on the immediate coast with low 90s inland through mid-week, but after that temperatures come down into the lower and mid 80s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

Severe weather appears to be at a minimum for the next several days. SPC has outlined a marginal risk around and just west of Chicago for Day 1. Day 2 sees that small area moves to the Central Appalachians covering West Virginia and western Pennsylvania. Day 3 is free of any areas of organized severe storms.

Tropics remain active. Lisa has dissipated. Karl is moving across the North Atlantic and will soon dissipate after it gains hurricane status for a brief time. The area of disturbed weather is the South Central Atlantic continued to chug steadily westward at 15 to 20 mph. Conditions in the atmosphere are expected to become favorable for development of this system as it approaches the Leeward Islands and the eastern Caribbean. The system could become a tropical depression about mid-week.

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The weak low pressure area in the atmosphere along the Gulf Coast will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms today mainly along the Gulf Coast and South Alabama. NWS Mobile issued a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings yesterday, and we may see the same thing today. Storms should be fairly isolated similar to what we saw on radar yesterday.

The cold front stretching from eastern Minnesota in an arc southwestward into West Texas is forecast to move steadily eastward. This motion should bring the front into Central Alabama during the early afternoon on Monday. Aloft, a strong trough will propel the surface system eastward as the trough breaks down the ridge in place over the eastern US today. Unfortunately, while we need to see a good rain event, it is unlikely that we’ll see that happening with this system. Precipitable water values are forecast to be in the range of 1.4 to 1.7 inches, so while showers and thunderstorms are likely to occur, not everyone will see rain and rainfall amounts are expected to be less than a quarter of an inch. Certainly not a drought buster.

The front slides well into the Gulf on Tuesday as the upper trough sets up for a couple of days over the eastern US. Wednesday is likely to be our coolest day with morning lows falling into the lower 50s area wide. Those typically cooler spots will probably see lows in the upper 40s. Highs will be much more seasonal with values in the lower 80s.

Beginning Thursday the ridge to our west slides eastward into the Southeast US keeping us dry for the end of the week and into the weekend. Lows should be in the 50s and highs mainly in the lower 80s – and that should feel really nice with dew points around 50 degrees.

Getting out into voodoo country, and the GFS is maintaining a forecast that includes a strong tropical system in the Caribbean. While the GFS has remained on track with the idea of a strong tropical system, the forecast path of the storm has not. Friday the forecast carried the system into the Central Gulf. Yesterday it was in the eastern Gulf. Today, the path of the storm is forecast to cross Cuba and travel northward right up the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. So while we have continuity for the development of a tropical storm or hurricane, we do not have continuity on where it will go, so we can only speculate on that for now. It is interesting to note that the European model also develops a storm in the eastern Caribbean, but the track on the European is way east of the GFS taking the storm across Hispaniola. There is lots of time before any of this will occur, and I expect to see additional changes before we are able to focus in on a reasonable forecast.

James Spann will have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video bright and early on Monday morning. You can always check back here for updates on how the weather is changing. Stay cool and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Weather Records Update

| September 24, 2016 @ 6:42 pm

Looks like we set some new records once again today. So here’s a recap of the highs across Central Alabama today.

Birmingham high of 98 just one degree below the record of 99 set in 1931

Anniston high of 97 breaks the old record of 96 set in 1931

Calera high of 98 (no record value established)

Tuscaloosa high of 99 breaks the old record of 97 set in 1961

Montgomery high of 98 ties the record of 98 set in 1931

Huntsville high of 97 breaks the old record of 96 set in 1961

Muscle Shoals high of 98 just two degrees below the record of 100 set in 1931

Pensacola high of 97 breaks the old record of 96 set in 1993

Mobile high of 95 breaks the old record of 94 set in 2010

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Not much reason to think that the highs tomorrow will be much different from today, but we will be dealing with a different set of records. But have patience, there is still good indications that we’ll see a cold front pass through Central Alabama during the day on Monday. Additional clouds and the presence of some showers should help to limit our highs on Monday to the range of the upper 80s to lower 90s across Central Alabama. Drier air along with some significant cooling should keep temperatures from Tuesday through next weekend in the lower 80s. That should feel very nice!

-Brian-

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Note: the Monday high on this graphic is probably too high.

Hot Weekend; Cooler Next Week

| September 24, 2016 @ 7:23 am

Let’s start with a quick recap of some new records yesterday established for Anniston, Tuscaloosa, Montgomery, Muscle Shoals, and Pensacola. At Anniston, the old record of 96 set in 1980 was broken with a high of 97. At Tuscaloosa, the old record of 97 set in 1980 was broken with a high of 98. Montgomery did nearly the same breaking the old record of 97 set in 1931 with a high of 98. And it was 94 in Pensacola tying the record high for yesterday set in 1998. The bad news is that there is little reason to expect our high temperatures today to be much different from yesterday. Record highs for today include Birmingham at 99 set in 1931, Tuscaloosa at 97 set in 1961, Anniston at 96 set in 1931, and Montgomery at 98 set in 1931, so we could see a couple of these records tumble today.

You know the pattern. We have a surface high along with an upper ridge in place across the Southeast US. The upper ridge bulges northward all the way to the Great Lakes area. But we are also eyeing a rather deep closed low and trough over the northern and central Rockies that will be making its way slowly eastward making an impact on our weather in the Monday-Tuesday time frame. For now satellite images shows clear skies across the state of Alabama with a few patches of clouds present over South Alabama. Look for highs today to once again reach the middle and upper 90s in the range of 94 to 98.

Football weather looks good albeit warm! Alabama hosts Kent State at Bryant-Denny Stadium with an 11:00 am CDT kickoff. The sky will be mostly sunny with temperatures rising from near 88 at kickoff to 95 degrees by the final whistle. It will be very, very hot in the east stands with direct sun while the west side will be more shaded. Sun screen a must for the game!

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Auburn will host LSU at Jordan-Hare Stadium with a 5:00 pm CDT kickoff. The sky should be mostly clear with temperatures falling through the 80s.

Headed to the beach? About 8 to 10 hours of sunshine is expected daily on the coast from Dauphin Island to Panama City Beach through the weekend with only widely scattered storms expected through the middle of the upcoming week. Highs will be in the upper 80s on the immediate coast with lower 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

Little in the way of severe storms forecast by SPC with only a marginal risk in a narrow strip arcing from West Texas northward across western Iowa into the western Dakotas. The marginal risk area slides to Chicago and southern Lake Michigan for Day 2. Day 3 has no risk areas.

And the tropics remain active as they have been since about the 10th of September. Karl and Lisa are still plodding away. Karl is very close to Bermuda this morning but will be moving rapidly into the North Atlantic. Lisa remained a depression this morning and is expected to fizzle by Sunday. An area of disturbed weather with a broad low pressure field was south of the Cabo Verde Islands. This area is expected to move steadily at 20 to 25 mph across the South Atlantic. By about Wednesday or so, the area will be approaching the Leeward Islands where environmental conditions are expected to become favorable for intensification. Should this area become better organized then it would be named Matthew.

Following the GFS 06Z model run, the strong trough over the northern Rockies this morning will push eastward through Tuesday when it is expected to reach the eastern Great Lakes area. A surface low associated with this upper trough over the Dakotas this morning will move eastward reaching Southeast Canada by Tuesday. This will bring a cold front down into the Southeast US during the day on Monday. This will bring our best chances for rain over the next week or so, but it’s looking more and more likely that the showers or thunderstorms that do occur will be scattered, so not everyone will see rain. Moisture values ahead of the front are limited with precipitable water values around 1.5 to 1.7 inches.

Before all of that comes about, it is worth mentioning that there is a weak area of low pressure in the upper air flow over the Gulf Coast area of the florida Panhandle. This weakness is moving westward and is not expected to have much impact other than the potential for isolated showers along the Gulf Coast and into southern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

The front pushes further south into the Gulf on Tuesday bringing us under high pressure from over Texas. The upper flow goes northwesterly behind the upper trough, so we should be able to say goodbye to highs in the 90s with our highs finally dipping back into the 80s, much closer to our seasonal averages for late September and early October.

The upper ridge to our west on Wednesday will slowly slide east through the end of the week and into the weekend keeping us dry. Highs can be expected to stay in the lower and middle 80s – a nice change – and with lower humidity as dew points fall into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Wednesday appears likely to be our coolest morning with lows in the lower 50s, but those typically cooler locations could see morning lows reach the upper 40s. Won’t that feel nice?

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Looking out into voodoo country, another strong trough moves into the western Great Lakes around October 4th followed by another, much deep trough around October 6th. And when you look at the maps, you cannot ignore the GFS projections of a strong tropical system coming into the Gulf of Mexico. Following the maps, this tracks back to that broad area of low pressure that is currently south of Cabo Verde Islands. That deep approaching trough on the 6th seems likely to force the tropical system in the Gulf to recurve into the Northeast Gulf Coast. Remember, we’re dealing with voodoo country here. But it is worth noting that the scenario the GFS is currently painting has some validity. We’ve seen numerous systems come across the South Atlantic this season without any development just as the GFS is suggesting with this system. Conditions in the Caribbean and Gulf as well as the immediate East Coast of the US is where we’ve seen development as we saw with Hermine and even with Julia. I’m certainly not waving hurricane flags just yet, but I think we’ll need to keep a close eye on future runs of the GFS to see what we might expect.

Thanks for tuning into the blog. I expect to post the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video here by 7:30 am or so on Sunday morning. Wishing all the teams success in their games today, and certainly hoping the Florida State Seminoles can bounce back from the devastating loss last week. Stay cool and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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WeatherBrains 557: Looking at a Big Outbreak in Indiana

| September 20, 2016 @ 5:15 am

WeatherBrains Episode 557 is now online (September 19, 2016). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

On August 24th of this year, an outbreak of about 23 tornadoes touched down across Central Indiana, northwestern Ohio, and into Ontario, Canada. The event was well warned, but created a controversy because the event was unusual in that it was unforecast by them.

Listener Jay Farlow, ham radio call of W9LW (Whiskey Niner Lima Whiskey), suggested we talk about the outbreak on tonight’s show. Fortunately there were no deaths or serious injuries in the event.

Our Guest WeatherBrains with insight into this event include Dan McCarty, Danielle Dozier, and Dr. Jeff Frame.

Our first Guest WeatherBrain is Dan McCarthy, the Meteorologist in Charge (MIC) of the National Weather Service in Indianapolis, IN. Dan is a veteran of WeatherBrains.

Our second Guest WeatherBrain is a meteorologist with Fox 59 in Indianapolis, IN. Danielle Dozier, welcome to the show.

And our final Guest WeatherBrain is a clinical assistant professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Dr. Frame teaches courses on introductory meteorology, synoptic-scale weather systems, weather forecasting, and severe thunderstorm dynamics. Dr. Jeff Frame, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 110 at Death Valley, CA, and 24 at Crested Butte, CO
  • TD 13 in far eastern Atlantic
  • TS Karl in Central Atlantic
  • Hurricane Paine in the eastern Pacific
  • Discussion of weather response at OU
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

Our email bag officer was fighting weather computer issues, so the email bag gets pushed off.

From The Weather Center:

WeatherBrains 101: With this episode the 101 segment will end the three-part series on air pressure with some notes from the 1800s about the meaning of pressure changes.

Listener SurveyListener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

Web Sites from Episode 557:

U.S. Tornadoes post on August 24, 2016

Fox 59 Weather

Video of Starbucks collapse

To subscribe to the brand new SkyWritings, an email newsletter from the WeatherBrains gang, click HERE.

Picks of the Week:

Jeff Frame – Department of Atmospheric Science U of I

Nate Johnson – Atlantic article on use of drones in place of Hurricane Hunters

Dan McCarthy – talks about Twitter

Brian Peters – Himawari satellite animation of Typhoon Malakas (large file)

Rick Smith – Article on Fighting Fatigue in the weather enterprise

James Spann – NWS overview of August 24, 2016, tornado outbreak

Aubrey Urbanowicz – Layoffs end flag reports in West Virginia

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

Audible.com graphic

Tropical Depression Thirteen Forms

| September 19, 2016 @ 4:21 pm

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has begun issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen. Satellite imagery, scatterometer data, and ship observations this afternoon indicated that the large low pressure system located southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has maintained a well-defined circulation and has developed enough organization to be considered a tropical depression.

The initial intensity of the depression was set at 30 knots based on scatterometer wind data of near 30 knots. The central pressure is based on reports from a ship observation during its traversal through the center of the cyclone over the past 12 hours. This depression is a large tropical cyclone with a
wind field that is more than 400 nautical miles in diameter.

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The initial motion estimate was an uncertain 280/10 kt, based primarily on satellite data. The depression was located along the southern edge of a large deep-layer ridge that is forecast to steer the cyclone westward for the next 24 hours or so. After that, the cyclone should follow a west-northwestward motion through 120 hours. The official NHC forecast track lies close to the consensus model TVCN through 96 hours, and then leans toward a blend of the ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC models since the GFS dissipates the cyclone by 120 hours, a scenario that seems premature given the current large size of the cyclone.

Vertical wind shear was forecast to remain low at less than 10 knots over the cyclone for the next 48 hours. This favors steady intensification. However, mid-level moisture is only expected to be marginal during this time with humidity values around 60 percent or less. The drier air along with the large size of the cyclone are expected to temper the development process, and this was reflected by the slower-than-average intensification rate.

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All in all, while the storm may become the next named tropical system Lisa, it appears likely to remain well out in the open Atlantic.

-Brian-

Showers Today, Drier Monday

| September 18, 2016 @ 6:37 am

Clouds and fairly numerous showers helped to keep temperatures down across Central Alabama yesterday with 84 the official high in Birmingham. I’m looking for a similar day today as a cold front was poised to enter the northwest corner of the state this morning and should move steadily albeit slowly through the state today. Showers were seen on radar this morning mainly in Jefferson County, but showers will be likely today. Much like yesterday, deeper moisture to the south will keep South Alabama wetter than North and Central Alabama. Highs should again be in the middle 80s, just about on the money with the 30-year average high for the middle of September.

Thunderstorms will be likely for the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida today dropping off to only a slight chance by Monday. Full sunshine returns by Tuesday and for the week ahead. Highs along the beach will be in the middle and upper 80s for the next week.

SPC has only a marginal risk for severe storms in pockets across the US through Day 3. See the video for the specific graphics. The tropics remain active as Julia keeps kicking off the Southeast US Coast, Karl was expected to slowly gain strength as it roams the Central Atlantic, and an active area of disturbed weather just off the African Coast was moving into an area where conditions favor slow development.

The upper trough over the Mississippi River Valley this morning will move eastward today pushing the front steadily but slowly through Alabama. By midday Monday, the front should be east of the state as drier air pushes in from the north. With clearing sky, highs will rebound from the weekend with highs around 90 on Monday. Then we come back under the upper ridge which will be the prime feature for us for the week ahead. While moisture levels will be down with dew points falling to near 60, temperatures won’t be cool at all. Look for the highs to be in the lower 90s through Thursday.

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Friday we have that weak upper low moving into Georgia from the Atlantic along with an increase of southerly or southeasterly flow at the surface. We’ll see some clouds and there will be a small risk for showers mainly driven by the heating of the afternoon. That weak upper low was not projected to move as far west as we saw yesterday, so most of us will stay dry. A big upper trough coming out of the Rockies on Saturday and Sunday will push a front across the Mississippi River Valley on Sunday. This should increase our chances for rain for Sunday and Monday as the front moves across the Southeast US.

Looking further out, a broad upper trough is forecast to remain in place across the eastern half of the country as we end September, but the upper air pattern slowly changes as we go into October with an upper ridge in place over the Mississippi River Valley by the 3rd of October.

Thanks for staying tuned to the blog. I’m excited to be emceeing the Ride For Kids once again this year at Barber Motorsports Park later this morning. Busy day since I will be filling in for Meaghan Thomas on ABC 3340 with the news at 5 and 10 pm. James Spann will be up next with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing Monday morning. Have a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Wet Weekend, Dry Again Next Week

| September 17, 2016 @ 7:01 am

Alabamians waking up to some clouds this morning. Dew points already in the upper 60s will climb into the range of 70 to 72 for much of the weekend as a cold front slowly approaches Central Alabama. There is also an upper trough that will be approaching, and that combination will spell about our best chances for some widespread rain in a long time. The Birmingham high yesterday was a warm 93 degrees, but it looks like the clouds and showers will help to keep the high temperatures today in the 80s – mainly about 84 to 87 range.

Alabama travels to Oxford to play Ole Miss with a 2:30p CT kickoff. The sky will be partly sunny, and a passing shower or storm is possible during the game. The high temperature will be in the lower 80s falling into the mid 70s by the final whistle, and humidity levels will be high.

Auburn hosts Texas A&M this evening at Jordan-Hare Stadium with a 6:30p CDT kickoff. A shower or thunderstorm is possible during the game, but not especially likely. Temperatures will fall from near 80 degrees at kickoff into the lower 70s by the final whistle.

Headed to the beach? There will be mostly cloudy skies with only 3 to 4 hours of sunshine today and Sunday along the coast from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach with scattered storms around. Highs will be in the middle 80s on the immediate coast, with low 90s inland. Sunshine returns and the weather warms up as we head into next week. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

SPC has little in the way of severe weather potential across the Nation. Day 1 we see the standard slight risk over the Texas Panhandle and West Texas with a marginal risk area from eastern Ohio into western New York. Day 2 there are no risk areas. Day 3 has a marginal risk area from Southeast Iowa to southern Lake Michigan. And the tropics stay active. Julia is a depression and meandering in the Southwest Atlantic where she should finally dissipate. Karl is struggling right now, but with warm water and less shear forecast in the ocean along the anticipated track of Karl, Karl should slowly strengthen with time possibly reaching hurricane force by Wednesday or Thursday while it remains at sea. And an area of disturbed weather just coming off the African coast is not expected to develop right away, however, conditions do appear favorable for slow development into the middle of next week.

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The upper trough helping to support showers and thunderstorms today and Sunday will move by on Monday as the front moves to North Florida. Dew points should be noticeably lower as dry air comes into Central Alabama on Monday. While the air will be noticeably drier Monday through Thursday, temperatures will continue to dance around the 90-degree mark through the middle of the week.

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Thursday we begin to have confidence issues with the forecast. The lack of confidence comes as a result of a weak upper level low over South Georgia. These features are weak and this one is forecast to move west into Alabama on Friday. The GFS seems to be underplaying the potential for rain with only small chances. My forecast will reflect that for now, but upper lows can be treacherous to forecast. Remember it was an upper low that produced the devastating flooding in Louisiana just weeks ago. So we’ll keep a chance for showers in the forecast, but we’ll also watch to see how the GFS handles this feature and try to focus on what the impact may be. With a surface high to the northeast of us, we could see this upper low bring some Atlantic moisture with it as it meanders slowly westward.

The long range forecast brings another trough with a strong cold front across the Southeast US on the 28th of September. The oh too familiar ridge closes out September on the 30th. Looks like we start October on a warm note, however, a big trough in the west could bring some wet weather our way during the first few days of October.

Thanks for tuning into the blog. I expect to post the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video here by 7 am or so on Sunday. Have a great day, keep an umbrella handy, and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Continued Warm with Isolated Showers

| September 11, 2016 @ 6:40 am

Central Alabama waking up to a few clouds this morning, but the radar is clear. A line of storms with some intense lightning moved into the northern sections of Alabama last night ahead of the cold front which was draped across Central Alabama this morning. Tennessee Valley locations saw a little rainfall with a third of an inch or less, but Central Alabama spots remained dry as the storms dissipated. There is a small chance for showers today in Central Alabama while there are slightly better chances for showers across South Alabama. Highs will drop back a little into the upper 80s with the presence of some extra clouds.

We’re still watching three areas of unsettled weather in the tropics. Feature one is an area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and was moving slowly northwestward. Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation has become better defined, but the associated thunderstorms had not become any better organized in the past few hours. Conditions are still favorable for a tropical depression to form during the next day or two while this disturbance moves toward the northwest over the central Atlantic. Feature two is a weak area of low pressure located over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico which remained devoid of thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are not favorable for development, and the low is forecast to weaken while it moves westward to west-southwestward at 5 to 10 mph across the central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. Feature three is an area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located north of Hispaniola that remained disorganized. There are no signs of a surface circulation, and conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant development of this system while it moves generally west-northwestward at around 15 mph.

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Headed for the beach? Mostly sunny days and fair nights are expected with only isolated storms heading into the week ahead. Highs will be in the upper 80s along the immediate coast, with lower 90s inland. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab was a very warm 85 degrees. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here.

The trough moving through the 500 millibar flow the morning will move quickly to New England later today. So support for the front will wane and the front is expected to wash out today and Monday. Unfortunately, even with a weak front present, the really drier air remained well north of Alabama, so we are not expecting to see any real air mass change. Clouds today will help hold our highs down a bit, but the should recover in the week ahead moving back into the lower 90s.

It is going to remain warm as an upper level ridge builds across the Southeast US into the end of the week. The GFS was weaker with the strength of the ridge in the latest run than we saw yesterday so we probably won’t see temperatures higher than the lower 90s. Moisture remains in place, so it’s going to be hard not to mention the possibility of an isolated shower or storm most days in the week ahead. These should be just diurnal showers driven by the heat of the day since there is really no significant weather feature to produce any real lift.

Showers may become more numerous toward the end of the week as the surface high shifts east and brings our surface flow around to the south. The increased moisture along with an approaching cold front on Sunday could bring up our chances for rain, and we really need some rain. The drought index continued to climb for the northern two-thirds of Alabama.

Looking out into voodoo country, the pattern has it’s ups and downs but no real sign of a significant cold front yet.

The NWA 2016 Conference gets underway today in Norfolk, VA. WeatherFest yesterday was a huge success with over 2,500 people coming through the doors. I had a great time handling the duties for the speaker session with some great speakers like Dr. Marshall Shepherd, Bill Read, and Tony Rice. I expect James Spann to have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Monday morning. Have a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Warm; Isolated Showers Sunday

| September 10, 2016 @ 6:19 am

Starting the day off with mostly clear skies and temperatures generally in the 60s. We should see a mostly sunny day as we watch a weakening cold front approach the area from the northwest. Highs will be warm once again as highs reach the lower 90s.

Looking at college football weather, Alabama hosts Western Kentucky this afternoon at Bryant-Denny Stadium for the 2016 home opener with a kickoff at 2:30 pm CDT. The sky will be mainly sunny with 92 degrees at kickoff dropping back into the upper 80s by the end of the game. Auburn will host Arkansas State at Jordan Hare Stadium this evening with a 6:30 pm CDT kickoff. The sky will be fair with temperatures falling from 86 degrees at kickoff into the upper 70s by the fourth quarter.

Weather at the beach looks fairly nice with mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only isolated storms on the coast through the weekend. There could be a passing storm, but overall fairly dry conditions. Highs will be in the upper 80s along the immediate coast with low 90s inland. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab was a warm 84.8 degrees. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here.

SPC has outlooked an area of slight risk for severe weather along and just ahead of the front from Central Kentucky northeast into the eastern Great Lakes area. No slight risk areas are forecast for Days 2 and 3.

Tropics are once again active with three areas under the watchful eye of hurricane forecasters. The first one in the Central Atlantic appears to have the best chance to develop, and it is forecast to recurve and remain in the Central Atlantic. The second area is just north of Puerto Rico and should continue northwesterly with little likelihood for development. The third area is in the Florida Straits and will be moving into the Gulf. Upper level winds remain unfavorable for this system to do much as it traverses the Gulf on a course toward extreme South Texas.

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Because I’m i the eastern time zone, I’m using the 00Z GFS run this morning for the discussion. The upper trough approaching the eastern US today will zip across the Great Lakes tonight and be located over New England on Sunday afternoon. The cold front will drag into the Southeast US and weaken or wash out on Sunday. The presence of the frontal boundary a potential for an isolated storm or two.

The front washes out late Sunday and into Monday leaving a small chance for an isolated storm or two. We won’t see a big change in our highs they remain around 90.

The ridge builds back into the Southeast US on Tuesday and becomes the main player in our weather pattern through the end of the week. The GFS is suggesting the ridge could be the strongest on Thursday and Friday with the potential for highs to be in the 93 to 95 range as the heat sticks with us.

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A strong trough coming out of the Rockies on Saturday will bring the approach of another cold front. Moisture also increases as the surface flow comes around to the south. Additional clouds along with a bit better chance for showers will help to keep highs in the upper 80s.

With the use of the 00Z GFS, I don’t have much to look at into voodoo country.

I’m in Norfolk, VA, this morning getting ready to work as a volunteer at the WeatherFest event that is a part of the National Weather Associations annual weather conference. We’re featuring meteorology at the Nauticus today. The free event is expected to draw over 3,000 people. I will have the next Weather Xtreme Video on Sunday morning, but it may not get posted until a little bit later in the morning.

-Brian-

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WeatherBrains 555: Playing with Nick’s Dongle

| September 7, 2016 @ 5:15 am

WeatherBrains Episode 555 is now online (September 6, 2016). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Our Guest WeatherBrain for this episode is Nick Walker of the Weather Channel. His hometown is Fort Worth, TX. He has a B.A. in Communications from the University of North Texas and a Certificate in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University.

Nick Walker, Weather ChannelWhen he’s not on the air talking weather, he enjoys educating young people about weather through school and community appearances. He is the author of “Sing Along with the Weather Dude,” a book and musical recording for children. As a singer and songwriter, he has produced several recordings of original music, including “Don’t Get Scared, Just Get Prepared,” a CD of severe weather preparedness songs for young people.

Nick also likes to write, and he has had articles and stories appear in local and national publications, including several “Chicken Soup for the Soul” books. Other interests include reading, traveling, and hiking.

Nick actually stumbled into weather when he was a news reporter in Seattle. One of the meteorologists left suddenly and his boss threw him on the air after a 4-day crash course. But he quickly became hooked and never looked back and it’s what he’se wanted to do ever since.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 106 at Death Valley, CA, and 20 at Bodie State Park, CA
  • Hermine has become a post tropical storm
  • Hermine still causing problems for New England coastline
  • Hurricane Newton in Eastern Pacific heading into Baja California
  • Some risk of severe weather Upper Midwest
  • Not cooler in Southeast US but drier air
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

Our email bag officer is continuing to handle the incoming messages from our listeners.

From The Weather Center:

WeatherBrains 101: It’s all around us all the time but we can’t see it but we can feel it. That’s air and while we can’t see it, it does exert a force on us. This week we begin a three-part series about air pressure.

Listener SurveyListener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

Web Sites from Episode 555:

The Weather Channel

Weather Dude web site

Article on Sinclair Broadcast Group interest in Weather Channel

To subscribe to the brand new SkyWritings, an email newsletter from the WeatherBrains gang, click HERE.

Picks of the Week:

Bill Murray – Meteorology Lab with Tim Vasquez

Brian Peters – Radar catches birds before earthquake

Kevin Selle – Hurricane Vortex Data Message Decoder

James Spann – TV alert goes awry

Aubrey Urbanowicz – Historical Hurricane Tracks

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

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