Brian Peters
WeatherBrains 382: Violent Tornado in Moore, OK
WeatherBrains Episode 382 is now online (May 20, 2013). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!
No WeatherBrains guest tonight as the show takes on a more somber note in light of the tragic news coming out of Moore, OK, where a tornado today was responsible for over 50 fatalities (at the time of the posting of the show notes). The discussion focuses on some of the issues that come out of events like this.
The winner of the contest for the bobblehead doll will be announced next week.
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
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From The Weather Center:
WeatherBrains 101 and This Week in Weather History will be back next week.
Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.
Web Sites from Episode 382:
Moore, OK, Tracks from 1999 and 2013
Picks of the Week:
With the major weather events of today in Central Oklahoma, the picks of the week will also return next week.
The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like JB Elliott, Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.
Moving Toward the 90s
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
Looks like we are headed for a real taste of summer as an upper ridge grabs hold of the weather pattern for the next several days. An upper trough positioned over eastern Kentucky is helping to generate showers from Atlanta back to the northwest to near Nashville. The presence of the upper level trough means that showers remain a possibility primarily over the eastern side of the state and up into the northeastern corner. But as the upper ridge takes a stronger foothold in the pattern, we should see shower free weather for Monday and Tuesday. But with that upper ridge I expect temperatures to climb to around 90s degrees for highs with lower 90s possible on Tuesday.
By Wednesday we will be watching the approach of the strong upper trough that will be responsible for the Day 1 and Day 2 moderate risk areas for severe weather back in the Central Plains states. That trough is forecast to move across the Mississippi River on Wednesday increasing our chances for rain and thunderstorms. For now, the risk of severe weather appears to be low, but we will keep a wary eye on this system. While not a clear cut severe weather setup just yet, the warm weather and the ultimate strength of the trough will dictate whether or not we will see severe storms.
The pattern becomes a little more complex on Thursday along with model differences between the GFS and the European. The European tends to phase the upper systems while the GFS does not. At this point, I’m not sure which of the solutions will be correct. Following the GFS, the main trough goes by us on Thursday but another short wave comes out of the northwest right behind the first one. This second short wave would keep us in shower chances into early Saturday, but we could see a reasonably good weekend as showers end early Saturday with the passage of that short wave and a nice Sunday.
Right now, the 5-day QPF forecast suggests less than a half inch of rain coming primarily in the Wednesday and Thursday time frame.
Looking into week two, the upper ridge is expected to build into the Southeast strongly bringing a warm end to May. But the GFS continues to hint at some tropical mischief around the first of June. Yesterday, the GFS showed a well defined surface system coming out of the Yucatan into the eastern Gulf just offshore from Tampa. As expected, the GFS 24 hours later has some changes. While it still shows a fairly well defined surface system coming out of the western Caribbean, it now comes across Cuba into the Bahamas on June 2nd. So you see why we dub the long range projections as voodoo country since it can be all over the place from one run to another. But it’s fun to watch how it all evolves.
And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…
| James Spann | Charles Daniel | Ashley Brand |
| J. B. Elliott | Bill Murray | Brian Peters |
| E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings) |
Be sure to watch the video to see the photo of the tornado my friend, John Huntington, caught in Kansas yesterday. Plus a big thanks to all the wonderful folks at the Fairfield facility of US Steel. I was invited to participate with them in their Family Safety Day, and I had a great time talking weather with folks. And the hamburgers and hot dog lunch was great! James Spann is expected back tomorrow morning with the latest edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. I hope your Sunday is a good one. Godspeed.
-Brian-
Unsettled Today
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
The weather across Central Alabama remains unsettled this morning as a result of a surface convergence zone and an upper level short wave that should slowly move eastward today allowing for improving weather from the west. But for today, heavy rains along with the training of storms will present a serious flash flood issue especially for the areas east and southeast of the Birmingham area. Flash flood warnings were in effect at this writing for portions of Clay, Calhoun, and Talladega counties. Additional development of scattered storms may result in additional flash flood warnings today as the area east and southeast of Birmingham received a good soaking with thunderstorms last night. There does not appear to be a significant threat for severe weather though we will have to watch for isolated storms to become marginally severe.
The upper trough will move slowly eastward toward which should shift the threat eastward out of Alabama tonight and Sunday. As the trough shifts eastward, we come under an upper ridge, so I expect to see the weather improve for us late Sunday and into Monday and Tuesday of the coming week. The upper ridge will also warm us up some perhaps presenting us with the warmest day of 2013 as highs edge toward 90 degrees on Tuesday.
The big storm system to our west responsible for the moderate risks for severe weather in the Central Plains today and Sunday will edge closer Wednesday as moisture values increase. This will bring showers back into the forecast. As the big upper low heads into the Great Lakes area on Thursday, we will see another wet day for the Southeast US. There may be some risk for severe weather on Thursday, but at the moment, it is not a clear cut situation that is going to depend more on mesoscale features, so we’ll need to keep an eye on it.
The front should be exiting on Friday taking the storm chances with it for Alabama which means a fairly nice Saturday for next weekend. The upper flow becomes northwesterly for us, so we will see a nice drop in the warm temperatures will highs dipping back into the upper 70s.
Looking out into voodoo country, the cool pattern is in place Sunday, but begins to change with a strong upper ridge becoming established toward the end of May. But the GFS is always ready to throw a surprise our way, and it does here, too. The GFS shows a strong surface low over the Yucatan Peninsula on May 30th which moves northeastward to near Tampa, FL, on the 31st. I really suspect that the next run will probably show something different, however, should the GFS be correct in this solution, the 2013 hurricane season could get off to an early start and this low would get the name Andrea. I’m not stepping out onto this limb just yet, but it is an interesting develop and one that will be carefully watched in future runs.
And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…
| James Spann | Charles Daniel | Ashley Brand |
| J. B. Elliott | Bill Murray | Brian Peters |
| E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings) |
I had a great time emceeing the Relay for Life event at Thompson High School last night. The rain put a damper on things, but the spirit of the people there was great as the North Shelby group raised money for cancer research. I believe this was my third time to emcee their event, and I appreciate their invitation. The next Weather Xtreme Video will be posted by 7:30 or so on Sunday morning. Stay dry and Godspeed.
-Brian-
WeatherBrains 381: Hanging out with Babes
WeatherBrains Episode 381 is now online (May 13, 2013). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!
We might have found a guest WeatherBrain who does more in less time than James Spann!
Dr. Kim Elmore is a research scientist with CIMMS, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, and adjunct associate professor of Meteorology at OU. He was part of the VORTEX2 project on the SR2 mobile radar team. Prior to that, he was an associate scientist with the RAP at NCAR. His current project is known by its very onomatopoeic name, “mPING” – the mobile Precipitation Identification Near the Ground project. They’ve just released a new mobile app. When he’s not at work, he’s a husband, father, runner, a single/multiple-engine and glider-rated pilot, an extra-class amateur radio operator, and – as if that wasn’t enough – violinist with the National Weather Center’s new performing ensemble, “Helical Flow.”
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
Our email bag officer is continuing to handle the incoming messages from our listeners.
From The Weather Center:
WeatherBrains 101: As we approach the summer season which includes an uptick in lightning occurrences, the 101 segment takes a look at a little of the history of lightning research. Did you know that lightning research actually netted one person a Nobel prize? All the details in this episode.
TWIWH: Bill Murray looks back at the week of May 13th.
Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.
Web Sites from Episode 381:
Contest: Send your home screen capture to myapps at weatherbrains dot com. The prize is a James Spann Bobblehead Doll 2.0.
The Drink of Nate Johnson, Cheerwine!
Picks of the Week:
JB Elliott – Lightning pic from the rim of the Grand Canyon
Nate Johnson – Time Lapse of World Change
Bill Murray – Rarity: Tornado Drought or Tornado Surplus
Brian Peters – Gets the Fog Horn!!
Kevin Selle – Mount Washington Observatory
James Spann – Forecast for the Future
The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like JB Elliott, Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.
The Return of Cooler Weather
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
Cooler weather is returning once again as May shapes up as a fairly cool month. This cool spell appears likely to be rather short lived with just a couple of cool days to enjoy.
A surface high pressure system will be settling into the Southeast US over the next couple of days as the center of the surface high migrate from Iowa today to Central Mississippi by midday on Monday. A fairly deep upper trough will move off the East Coast by Tuesday, but as it does a strong northwesterly flow will usher in some very cool air. Monday morning appears likely to be the coolest with morning lows dipping pretty close to 40 degrees. This means that some of those typically cooler locations are likely to drop into the 30s. While I do not expect to see any freezing values, it is possible those colder and sheltered locations may see some light frost. Yes, it is nearly a third of the way through May.
An upper ridge moves over us Tuesday and Wednesday so we should see a nice warming trend as we see highs climb back into the lower 80s by Wednesday. The approach of a weak upper trough on Thursday as the surface high settles over North Florida will signal a return of moisture and the possibility of daily scattered showers through the weekend. By Sunday we see a strong upper trough coming out of the northern Rockies into the Central Plains which should bring a surface low into southern Minnesota with a cold front trailing southwestward into Texas. But we should remain in a summer-ish like pattern with small chances for mainly afternoon showers.
Nice to see very little severe weather potential as defined by SPC. We have been fortunate to have a somewhat uneventful spring severe weather season, and I hope this pattern continues as the severe weather season/potential swings out of the Southeast and into the Central Plains.
Almost no rain for the next five days until we see scattered showers possibly on Thursday, and even then the rainfall amounts will be light.
The GFS long range projections are holding onto the idea of another shot at some chilly air around the 22nd of May. This should present us with some rain chances on the 20th and 21st and perhaps a severe weather threat, too. The idea of a rather huge upper ridge over the Central US May 26th and 27th is a little watered down. We are still likely to be under weak ridging, but this run of the GFS puts the big upper ridge much further west with a complex pattern with an upper low undercutting that ridge. But we expect changes this far out!
And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…
| James Spann | Charles Daniel | Ashley Brand |
| J. B. Elliott | Bill Murray | Brian Peters |
| E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings) |
I had a wonderful time working at the Buck Creek Festival yesterday and Friday. Our festival committee did a great job of putting together another fabulous festival, our 12th. Lots of great food, crafts, kids activities, and tremendous music. Two small lines of showers even helped out by dropping the temperature about 10 degrees with dumping more than a little light rain which dampened the dust! Tired from this event, but already looking forward to the 13th festival in 2014! James Spann will have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video by 7 am Monday. Enjoy this wonderfully cool Mothers Day. Godspeed.
-Brian-
