Find us on Google+

Brian Peters

rss feed

Wet Weather Ahead

| 6:53 am May 24, 2015

After several days of great weather, moisture will be on the increase with showers and thunderstorms possible beginning this evening and continuing for much of the week ahead. This is in stark contrast to the relatively dry May we’ve seen in Central Alabama so far.

Special thanks to Joe Miller for the picture he posted via Twitter of a sample of the flooding in Oklahoma.

Joe Miller pic of elk city flooding

While our weather will be turning wetter, I do not expect to see the magnitude of flooding that Oklahoma has experienced over the last several days. But QPF forecasts suggest that we could see 1 to 3 inches of rainfall over the next 5 days as this weather system moves slowly by.

The upper trough over the southern Rockies will be ejecting northeastward over the next several days. This will increase our rain chances starting late today and continuing for much of the week ahead. The upper trough should move by us by Wednesday throwing us into a pattern of scattered showers as a relatively moist air mass remains in place across the Southeast US.

SPC has mentioned the potential for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday, Day 3, across a large section of the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys as this trough moves by. CAPE values soar to around 3,000 j/kg during the afternoon Tuesday, so it looks like all modes of severe weather will be possible.

Once the primary trough moves by at mid-week, the weather settles into a daily shower regime with highs staying mainly in the 80s and lows in the 60s, fairly typical for late May.

For beach goers, you will enjoy plenty of sunshine today, so be sure to pack the sunscreen. Scattered showers return today and for much of the week, but there will be 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day. Highs along the coast will be in the range from about 82 to 85 degrees. Water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab was 78 degrees. There is also a moderate risk of rip currents with the onshore flow for the next couple of days.

By the end of the week, weak ridging will occur across the Southeast US, but without an air mass change, scattered showers remain possible. The next trough begins to take shape on Saturday over the Central Plains which could spell another round of wet weather for the Southeast US for the latter half of next weekend.

Looking out into Week 2, or voodoo country, the GFS continues to suggest a relatively cool and start to June with general troughiness over the eastern half of the country.

James Spann will be back on Monday with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. You can always check back here for the latest updates on our ever changing weather. Enjoy the day, and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Warmer for the Weekend

| 7:02 am May 23, 2015

High pressure at the surface will keep the weather spectacular across Alabama today as we enjoy the first third of the Memorial Day weekend. An upper ridge will allow heights to climb, so with plenty of sunshine look for highs to climb back into the 80s after a couple of nice, cooler days. The morning actually started on a cool note for the area northeast of Birmingham where Skywatchers reported morning lows in the 40s once again.

The upper ridge builds in stronger on Sunday as a strong trough comes out of the Rockies. This will keep much of the focus for rain to our west where sections of Texas, Arkansas, and Oklahoma could see rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches over the next several days. While clouds will increase for Central Alabama, I think we should stay dry with showers remaining just to our west.

5-day expected rainfall

The upper trough comes out across the Upper Mississippi River Valley from Monday into Wednesday. With a good, moist southwesterly flow, we should see fairly widespread showers and storms across Central Alabama and the Southeast US. Temperatures will be cut back just a bit thanks to the presence of clouds and showers, but most places will see highs in the lower 80s.

After the trough passes late Wednesday, we come under weak ridging for the latter part of the week, but the weather is likely to remain somewhat unsettled since we don’t see an air mass change. This means daily chances for showers mainly driven by the heat of the day. The last weekend of May could be a little wetter with the approach of another upper trough as we remain in a moist air mass.

Beach goers will enjoy plenty of sunshine today, so be sure to pack the sunscreen. Scattered showers return Sunday and into much of next week, though there will be 4 to 6 hours of sunshine each day. Highs along the coast will be in the range from about 82 to 85 degrees.

HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS WEEK: The Atlantic hurricane season begins officially June 1st, so it is that time of year for coastal areas that can be impacted by the big storms to think about their seasonal preparedness activities. More here.

Looking out into voodoo country, the overall upper air pattern begins to shift northward as we head into June. Another trough traverses the Ohio Valley around June 1st and then weak ridging expands across the southern tier of the US with the traveling storms along the US-Canadian border.

I expect to post the next Weather Xtreme Video here on Sunday morning. Check back frequently for updates on our ever-changing weather.

-Brian-

WeatherBrains 486: Pickles All Over It

| 5:20 am May 19, 2015

WeatherBrains Episode 486 is now online (May 18, 2015). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

David DrobnyTonight’s Guest Panelist is a show alum, having appeared on episode 395 in August, 2013. He is responsible for suggesting tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain, which we will punish by making him appear as the Guest Panelist. Indeed, no good deed goes unpunished. David Drobny, welcome back.

Kelton HalbertTonight’s Guest WeatherBrain was born in Nashville. He comes from a traveling musical family. He plays the guitar, banjo, and bass guitar, but his first love is meteorology. He is currently a junior at the University of Oklahoma School of Meteorology in Norman, where he is a research assistant with the Arctic and Antarctic Atmospheric Research Group. He is currently the Director of Development at the Oklahoma Weather Lab. Kelton Halbert, welcome to WeatherBrains.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 96 at Presidio, TX, and 22 at Scobey, MT
  • Trio of WeatherBrains gang in Norman, OK
  • Severe weather somewhat limited
  • Cold in North Central US
  • Drought busting rain in parts of Texas and Oklahoma
  • And more rain possible for those areas
  • and more!
  • Our email bag officer is out once again.

    From The Weather Center:

    WeatherBrains 101: Last week there was a mention of cloud iridescence, so for this weekly episode we’ll take a look at what that is and why it is sometimes hard to see.

    Listener SurveyListener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

    Web Sites from Episode 486:

    To subscribe to the brand new SkyWritings, an email newsletter from the WeatherBrains gang, click HERE.

    SHARPpy software

    Oklahoma Weather Lab

    AARG at OU

    Link to Windows version of SHARPpy

    Link to Mac OS X version of SHARPpy

    Tempest Storm Chasing

    Picks of the Week:

    David Drobny – Tornado Forecasting Workshop with Rich Thompson

    Kelton Halbert – WRF Model

    Nate Johnson – Early May, 2015, Storms Time-lapse

    Bill Murray – Experimental sounding page at SPC

    Brian Peters – Gets the fog horn!

    John Scala – FACETS at NSSL

    Kevin Selle – Elmer, OK, Tornado time lapse

    Rick Smith – Online Damage Report, May 6, 2015, Great Plains Event

    James Spann – Sea surface Temperature Contours

    SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

    The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

    Audible.com graphic

    Passing Showers Remain Likely

    | 6:36 am May 17, 2015

    Central Alabama and the Southeast US remains in a moisture rich air mass as we see no big changes to the overall weather pattern today or into the week ahead. A quick check of radar this morning showed some light scattered showers across the state producing generally light rainfall amounts. Thunderstorms were fairly numerous along the Gulf Coast yesterday including a couple of flash flood warnings in the Mobile area.

    BMX

    Passing showers will also be the going weather for the beach area today with only a few peeks at the sun. Activities at The Hangout in Gulf Shores will remain in full swing with the possibility of some delays due to showers. The onshore flow is also creating a high risk for rip currents, so if you plan to be at the beach, be especially cautious if venturing into the water. The threat of a passing shower reduces into early next week, but there will still be a good amount of clouds with highs in the middle 80s with the daily threat of a scattered shower or thunderstorm.

    The closed upper low over the Southwest US ejected northeastward yesterday and was the focus for a round of severe weather in the Central Plains states. That closed low will be opening up and moving north to northeast today and will be the focus for a severe weather into the Great Lakes area trailing back into the Mid Mississippi River Valley.

    The upper ridge will be holding in place as the upper closed low opens up and moves into the Great Lakes. While this will help to dampen the upper ridge somewhat, the overall meandering of the upper ridge should keep our heights fairly stable so not much change in temperatures with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. And with a slight west to southwest flow aloft, clouds will be remaining with us. Passing showers will mean that not everyone gets rain, however, with the heavier showers some spots could see some locally heavy rain with amounts of one half to one inch possible.

    With the upper ridge dampened somewhat at midweek, we should see a brief break in the chances for showers. The chance of rain will not drop to zero, but it does look like Wednesday should be a dry day for most of us. The upper ridge remains along and just west of the Mississippi River for the latter part of the week, so the forecast will have to show small daily chances for showers driven primarily by the heat of the day. It won’t be especially hot, however, with highs holding in the 80s and lows in the 60s for Central Alabama.

    As we edge out into voodoo country, not much change in the overall upper air pattern, so the summer-like pattern with showers appears likely to stick with us into the latter part of May.

    Watch for additional posts here for updates on the anticipated weather. James Spann will have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video here on Monday morning. Enjoy your day and Godspeed.

    -Brian-

    Passing Showers Through Weekend

    | 6:53 am May 16, 2015

    Quick radar check shows an area of showers in the Tennessee River Valley moving northward. Other scattered showers were occurring in the vicinity of Selma. Our moist air mass will lend itself to passing showers through the weekend, however, with the clouds in place our highs will be held into the lower half of the 80s.

    BMX

    Passing showers will also be the going weather for the beach area today with only a few peeks at the sun. The onshore flow is also creating a high risk for rip currents, so if you plan to be at the beach, be especially cautious if venturing into the water. The threat of a passing shower reduces on Sunday and into early next week, but there will still be a good amount of clouds with highs in the middle 80s with the daily threat of a scattered shower or thunderstorm.

    The upper air pattern remained somewhat stagnate for the time being with a closed low over the western US. That closed low will be opening up and moving north to northeast today and will be the focus for a significant round of severe weather in the Central Plains where SPC has a moderate risk of severe weather in portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, and South Central Nebraska. The risk of severe storms diminishes to the standard slight risk on Sunday as the upper low moves into the Great Lakes.

    For us, the upper ridge will be holding in place as the upper closed low opens up and moves into the Great Lakes. While this will help to dampen the upper ridge somewhat, the overall meandering of the upper ridge should keep our heights fairly stable so no real change in temperatures with highs in the 80s. And with a slight west to southwest flow aloft, clouds will be remaining with us until midweek. Passing showers will mean that not everyone gets rain, however, with the heavier showers some spots could see some locally heavy rain with amounts of one inch or slightly more possible.

    With the upper ridge dampened somewhat at midweek, we should see a brief break in the chances for showers. Not sure the chance of rain will drop to zero, but it does look like Wednesday should be a dry day for most of us. The upper ridge remains along and just west of the Mississippi River for the latter part of the week, so the forecast will have to show some small daily chances for showers driven primarily by the heat of the day. It won’t be especially hot, however, with highs holding in the 80s and lows in the 60s for Central Alabama. These values should be pretty close to our 30-year averages of 81 for highs and 60 for lows.

    As we edge out into voodoo country, not much change in the overall upper air pattern, so the summer-like pattern with showers appears likely to stick with us into the latter part of May.

    I expect to post the next Weather Xtreme Video here on Sunday morning. You can always check back here for later updates on Central Alabama weather.

    -Brian-

    WeatherBrains 485: Tornado Stories

    | 5:15 am May 12, 2015

    WeatherBrains Episode 485 is now online (May 11, 2015). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

    Holly BaileyTonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a National Correspondent for Yahoo and former reporter for Newsweek. She is an Oklahoma native who currently lives in Brooklyn. She has a new book being released tomorrow that is an account from several different perspectives focusing on OKC media, victims and NWS of the May, 2013, tornadoes. Author of The Mercy of the Sky, Holly Bailey, welcome to WeatherBrains!

    Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 100 at Death Valley, CA, and 16 at West Yellowstone, MT
  • Weather lost a legend today in the passing of JB Elliott
  • Long lasting severe weather for North Central Texas and Oklahoma
  • Good rains for a parched area
  • Severe weather dampening out for next several days
  • and more!
  • Our email bag officer is out tonight, so she’ll have a long mail bag next week.

    From The Weather Center:

    WeatherBrains 101: Clouds have got to be one of the biggest and most interesting visual element that attracts people to weather. So for this episode of 101 we take a look at an interesting cloud called the pileus cloud.

    Listener SurveyListener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

    Web Sites from Episode 485:

    To subscribe to the brand new SkyWritings, an email newsletter from the WeatherBrains gang, click HERE.

    Spann’s Tribute to JB Elliott

    Mercy of the Sky book (one of many)

    Picks of the Week:

    Nate Johnson – On-air meteorologists bridge gap

    Bill Murray – Gets fog horn!

    Brian Peters – Tropical cyclone climatology

    John Scala – Hurricane drought due to luck

    Kevin Selle – Sam Barricklow photos of Electra, TX, storm

    Rick Smith – Video of tornado in Norman, OK, on May 6, 2015

    James Spann – Farewell to Birmingham Weather Legend

    SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

    The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

    Audible.com graphic

    Another Summer-like Day

    | 7:01 am May 10, 2015

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player above. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    Alabama remained essentially between systems. To our east, Tropical Storm Ana made landfall early this morning in the vicinity and slightly north of Myrtle Beach, SC. The first tropical storm of the 2015 season should gradually dissipate into a depression as it turns north and northeastward today and tonight. Weather conditions over the Carolinas will gradually improve as the remnants of Ana move away from the area tonight and Monday.

    To our west, the closed low that has been spinning in the vicinity of the Four Corners area of the Southwest US is beginning to lift north and northeast with the system opening up as it does. By late Monday and into Tuesday, that system should be located over the Great Lakes with a front trailing down and across the Southeast US. This front should bring the best chances for scattered thunderstorms to the area Monday and early Tuesday. The SPC has the standard risk of severe storms entering the northwest corner of Alabama late in Day 2, Monday into early Tuesday. With the best dynamics to this system well north of Alabama along with the overall general weakening trend, the severe weather threat for Central Alabama appears to be low at this time. But it is May, so this will continue to bear watching.

    The front will move south of us Tuesday and that paves the way for cooler and drier air to bring a very nice day to Central Alabama on Wednesday. With the front to our south and moving back this way along with general ridging in the upper atmosphere, the atmosphere will moisten up for the end of the week and into next weekend with the need to mention the possibility of showers each day as we go into the weekend with a summer-like pattern with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

    For those headed to the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida, expect mostly sunny days and fair nights into Monday. Highs will be in the upper 70s on the immediate coast, with upper 80s inland. The rest of next week, expect only widely scattered showers and storms, and a decent amount of sun each day. Water temps are climbing, and the water temperature at Perdido Pass at Orange Beach, was close to 80 degrees.

    Looking out into voodoo country, the overall pattern of ridging across the southern tier of the US with the westerlies fairly far north should bring a summer-isn pattern with daily chances of showers along with warm weather with highs mainly in the 80s as we push 90 degree highs once again.

    And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

    James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray
    Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

    Great time emceeing the Buck Creek Festival in Helena over the weekend with great weather, fabulous music, and some really great crowds in the park. Happy Mothers Day. James Spann will have the next Weather Xtreme Video on Monday morning. Enjoy your Sunday, and Godspeed.

    -Brian-

    Summer-like Weather for Your Weekend

    | 7:05 am May 9, 2015

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player above. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    Look for a summer-like weekend across Central Alabama as we remain between two weather systems. Some high cirrus clouds from the convection to our west was traversing the Central Alabama sky this morning, but we should see a mostly sunny day with highs once again coming in near 90.

    Showers may edge a little closer especially for extreme North Alabama on Sunday, but much of the area will remain dry and warm with highs again close to 90.

    Little bit of a change coming late Monday and Tuesday as a cold front moves into and across Central Alabama. The combination of more clouds along with scattered showers should help to bring temperatures down a tad. It looks like the front will come through the area by Wednesday giving us a bit of a cooler day. But the front will be wavering in the area, so it looks like a pattern with some small daily chances for showers will set up for the latter part of the upcoming week. Highs will be mainly in the 80s after Wednesday.

    SPC does outlook the standard slight risk for severe storms to our west and northwest on Day 3, Monday into Tuesday. But with the upper level dynamics well to our north it looks like the threat for severe weather in Central Alabama will be decreasing, but it will bear watching.

    To our east, Ana is slowly moving toward the Carolina coastal area where North and South Carolina meet. NHC notes that Ana has probably made the transition to a tropical storm with a warm core and maximum sustained wind estimated at 60 mph. Tropical Storm warnings were posted along that portion of the coast from South Santee, SC, to Cape Lookout, NC. Ana is expected to come ashore Sunday morning and gradually dissipate into a depression with rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches along the coast.

    Looking out into voodoo country, the GFS for week 2 shows a ridge over much of the eastern half of the country with a summer-like look which suggests warm weather with some daily chances for scattered showers.

    And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

    James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray
    Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

    Busy day emceeing the music at the Buck Creek Festival in Helena at the Amphitheater Park. Be sure to come out to enjoy the food, music, and crafts under the trees along the banks of Buck Creek. I plan to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted Sunday morning, perhaps a little later than usual due to the festival events today. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

    -Brian-