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Category: Alabama’s Weather

Midday Nowcast: Decent Rain Chances Today Through The Weekend

| 1:31 pm July 29, 2016

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Skies are partly cloudy for the northern parts of Central Alabama at this hour, with the southern part of the area enjoying a little more sunshine with partly to mostly clear skies. On the radar, we do have some scattered showers mainly across the northeastern parts of the area, especially east of I-65 and west of I-59. There are a few more spotty showers out there across the area, but a good bit of the state remains dry at this moment.

TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR: You can tell by the list below where the clouds are holding the temperatures back, and where the location is in sunshine. Here is a list of temperature observations from across the area:

Birmingham 86
Tuscaloosa 87
Gadsden 85
Anniston 90
Cullman 83
Hamilton 83
Clanton 89
Alexander City 88
Montgomery 92

WHAT TO EXPECT FOR TODAY: Once again, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy across Central Alabama, and with a weakness in the upper ridge across the deep south, we’ll have a better chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to just above 90 degrees. Not everyone will get rainfall, but the odds of any one spot getting rainfall will be around 50/50.

CODE YELLOW AIR QUALITY: The Air Quality Index for the Birmingham Metropolitan Area will be in the “Code Yellow” for ozone and particulate matter 2.5. Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.

TODAY’S CLIMATOLOGY FOR BIRMINGHAM: The normal high for July 28th is 91, while the normal low is 70. The record high for today was set back in 1930 at 107. The record low was set back in 1994 at 60.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Not much change for the weekend as the weakness in the upper ridge across the deep south will keep a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast throughout the weekend. Odds for any one place getting rainfall will be about 50/50. Otherwise, expect a mix of sun and clouds with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. Heat index values will reach the low 100s on both days, so please use common sense while outside.

HEADED TO THE BEACH: Expect scattered showers and storms along the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida. Rain chances will ratchet up just a bit by midweek next week. Highs will be around 89 with morning lows in the upper 70s. Waves will generally be running less than one foot, except around thunderstorms, so the rip current threat should be low. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

THE TROPICS: The tropical Atlantic has become a bit more active with two disturbances under the watchful eye of the National Hurricane Center. Both are a long way from threatening any land areas, and they will stay that way for several days to come.

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WEATHERBRAINS: This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists at ABC 33/40. You can listen anytime on the web, or on iTunes. You can find it here.

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Showers Numerous Today

| 7:08 am July 29, 2016

The early morning satellite image showed cloudy skies across about the northern half of Alabama, and radar was even picking up on areas of some sprinkles or very light rain. The upper air flow has been slow to change so the overall weakness in the 500 millibar pattern should help to keep us in more numerous showers once again today. Those more prevalent showers along with the widespread cloud cover should help to keep temperatures in check for one more day with highs in the upper 80s. The high in Birmingham yesterday was only 88 degrees, that’s 3 degrees below average. Very hard to call this a cold spell, but when we are in late July and the highs only reach the upper 80s, I’ll take it!

Beachgoers can expect scattered showers and storms along the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida. Rain chances will ratchet up just a bit by midweek next week. Highs will be around 89 with morning lows in the upper 70s. Waves will generally be running less than one foot, except around thunderstorms, so the rip current threat should be low. You can find a detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

The tropical Atlantic has become a bit more active with two disturbances under the watchful eye of the National Hurricane Center. Both are a long way from threatening any land areas, and they will stay that way for several days to come.

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Severe weather risk for the next several days remains low, too. SPC has an area in an arc through the Central Plains running from southern Indiana in an arc through Oklahoma and then north into Southwest South Dakota. Days 2 and 3 have only small areas of marginal risk.

The GFS model is going to hold the weakness in our area today, but for the weekend and into Monday it looks like it weakens and moves eastward. This should result in a drop in the number and coverage of showers as highs climb back into the lower 90s. By Tuesday the upper heat ridge to our west begins to push into the Lower Mississippi River Valley and by Wednesday it has arrived. This keeps us in those daily chances for showers with highs in the lower and middle 90s.

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Thursday and Friday an easterly wave appears in the 500 millibar flow, and that wave could help to push up shower chances some and knock a couple of degrees off the highs. It will still be fairly hot with highs in the lower 90s.

The long range forecast – also known as voodoo country – had a bit of a surprise for us yesterday. Well, there’s another surprise today – and it’s not the same surprise. Yesterday the GFS was hinting at something tropical in the western Gulf. That feature is gone today – is that a real surprise to anyone? But in its place the GFS is developing a deep trough along the East Coast of the US and closing off a low that is forecast to migrate west. While not out of the question, this pattern looks a little suspicious.

Just a reminder that while James Spann is on vacation I’ll be maintaining a one-a-day Weather Xtreme Video. So I plan to have the next one posted here around 7 am or so on Saturday. Enjoy the day, and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Midday Nowcast: Scattered to Numerous Showers Out There Today

| 12:10 pm July 28, 2016

simuawips

At this hour, skies across Central Alabama are mostly cloudy to cloudy over the much of the area, with the extreme southern parts of the area with mostly clear skies. We have shower activity pushing into the state from Mississippi, giving some communities some much needed rainfall.

Radar

On the radar, we see showers in the northwestern part of the state, especially in Northern Marion, Southern Franklin, and Southern Lawrence counties. These are moving to the east at about 20 MPH. Another area of showers are located in Southern Bibb County, stretching back to the west through extreme Southern Tuscaloosa County, Northern Greene and Hale counties, and through Southern Sumter and Northern Choctaw Counties back into Mississippi. Otherwise, there are a few smaller scattered showers located throughout the area.

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We could definitely use what rain will fall, as much of the northern-half of the state is consistent with some level of drought condition.

TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR: Cloud cover over most of the area is holding back temperatures for where they would normally be at this hour. Here is a list of temperature observations from across the area:

Birmingham 82
Tuscaloosa 83
Gadsden 82
Anniston 82
Cullman 79
Hamilton 79
Clanton 85
Alexander City 85
Montgomery 89

WHAT TO EXPECT FOR TODAY: Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies over the area with an increased chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Not everyone will get rain today, but the odds for any one spot getting rain will be about 50/50. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to just over 90 for most spots in Central Alabama. Even though high temperatures will be down a little, the higher dew points will not make it feel any cooler. Overnight lows will be in the 70s.

CODE GREEN AIR QUALITY: The Air Quality Index for the Birmingham Metropolitan Area will be in the “Code Green” for ozone and particulate matter 2.5. No actions needed for today.

TODAY’S CLIMATOLOGY FOR BIRMINGHAM: The normal high for July 28th is 91, while the normal low is 70. The record high for today was set back in 1952 at 105. The record low was set back in 1911 at 60.

FRIDAY’S OUTLOOK: Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy across Central Alabama, and with a weakness in the upper ridge across the deep south, we’ll have a better chance of showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to just above 90 degrees. Not everyone will get rainfall, but the odds of any one spot getting rainfall will be around 50/50.

HEADED TO THE BEACH: Look for 7 to 9 hours of sunshine daily on the coast from Panama City Beach over to Dauphin Island through the weekend with the usual risk of a passing storm from time to time. Highs on the immediate coast 87 to 90 with low to mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

THE TROPICS: The Tropical Atlantic remains quiet with just the one one area of disturbed weather way out in the Atlantic south of the Cape Verde Islands. The GFS is not doing much with that system.

WEATHERBRAINS: This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists at ABC 33/40. You can listen anytime on the web, or on iTunes. You can find it here.

ADVERTISE WITH US: Deliver your message to a highly engaged audience by advertising on the AlabamaWX.com website. The site enjoyed 10.2 MILLION pageviews in the past 12 months. Don’t miss out! We can customize a creative, flexible and affordable package that will suit your organization’s needs. Contact Bill Murray at (205) 687-0782.

Break in the Heat Continues

| 7:08 am July 28, 2016

The break in the heat is going to stick with us for the day and into the start of the weekend. The high at the Birmingham Shuttlesworth International Airport yesterday was 89 degrees which is actually 2 degrees below the 30-year average for late July which is 91. Tuscaloosa recorded an 89, too, while Anniston-Oxford hit 90.

We have weak troughiness aloft which is going to stick around for the next couple of days, so I expect to see showers remain a bid more numerous along with more clouds helping to keep the afternoon highs in check. Most places will be dancing around the 90-degree mark.

For beachgoers, look for 7 to 9 hours of sunshine daily on the coast from Panama City Beach over to Dauphin Island through the weekend with the usual risk of a passing storm from time to time. Highs on the immediate coast 87 to 90 with low to mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

Tropical Atlantic remains quiet with just the one one area of disturbed weather way out in the Atlantic south of the Cape Verde Islands. The GFS is not doing much with that system. Frank continues to whirl in the Eastern North Pacific away from land with a second area of disturbed weather being carefully watched. Completing the tropical parade is Tropical Storm Mirinae which is moving into Vietnam as it weakens.

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Showers and thunderstorms will remain a bit more numerous through Saturday especially across the northern third of Alabama. But by Sunday and Monday the upper troughiness we’ve seen over the eastern half of the country – and enjoyed for the break in the excessive heat – will be eased eastward as the upper ridge over the Southwest US pushes eastward. The upper ridge will be the most influential on our weather around midweek, though the 594 height contour will certainly not be as impressive as we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks.

By Thursday, the upper ridge begins to weaken slightly. But this will put our highs back into the 90s for the first half of next week. Showers and thunderstorms will be driven primarily by the heat of the afternoon, so look for them to be isolated most days with the majority of people remaining dry. Morning lows will be steady in the 70 to 75 degree range.

Looking out into voodoo country, the GFS is rather bullish on another fairly deep trough over the eastern US for much of the Week 2 period. This pattern keeps Alabama in the in-between area with the trough axis along the East Coast and the ridge axis from Texas to the western Great Lakes. This certainly favors a warm period without any evidence of any extreme heat. Watch the video for a little surprise from the GFS for the long range period.

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James Spann is on vacation for the next week, so we will be on a one-a-day Weather Xtreme Video schedule through the middle of next week. I plan to post the next Weather Xtreme Video by 7:30 or so on Friday morning. Enjoy your day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Showers/Storms Increasing Across Alabama

| 3:14 pm July 27, 2016

RADAR CHECK: A number of showers and thunderstorms have formed across North/Central Alabama this afternoon… Moving northeast…

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Heavier storms are producing heavy rain; they are moving northeast, and will diminish late tonight. On the positive side, heat levels are down as expected; most communities are in the upper 80s at mid-afternoon.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: A general weakness in the upper ridge will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the great state of Alabama. We can’t promise rain for everybody, but most communities will see one or two good downpours. Best chance of rain comes during the afternoon and evening hours, but we can’t rule out late night or morning showers. Highs will be in the upper 80s tomorrow, and close to 90 degrees Friday afternoon.

THE WEEKEND: Not much change; a mix of sun and clouds Saturday and Sunday with scattered showers and storms, most active from 1:00 until 9:00 p.m. Highs will be in the 90-93 degree range, right at seasonal levels for late July.

NEXT WEEK: The upper ridge should strengthen early in the week, so showers and storms could become a little fewer in number Monday and Tuesday; highs will stay in the low 90s. Then, some evidence showers and storms increase again late in the week. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: A tropical wave now emerging off the coast of Africa has some chance of development over the next five days as it moves west/northwest. Way too early to determine if this will impact U.S. or any land area; just something to keep an eye on…

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AT THE BEACH: About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine daily on the coast from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores through the weekend, with the usual risk of a passing storm from time to time. Highs on the immediate coast 87-90, with low to mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be taking a few days off… Brian Peters will have the next Weather Xtreme video here tomorrow morning…

Midday Nowcast: An Increase in Rain Coverage Possible Today

| 11:00 am July 27, 2016

radar

simuawips

With skies partly to mostly cloudy across the Central Alabama area at this hour, temperatures are really being held back from what we have seen this month. Unfortunately it will not seem all that cooler because of the higher dew point readings, and highs in the upper 80s will still feel like mid to upper 90s. There are a few spotty showers out there across the central parts of the area, and we should expect these to expand in coverage later today. I’m hoping that they do because my garden hose is a pain to pull across the yard to water our garden. Free water would be nice today.

TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR: Like I said earlier, temperatures for this part of the day are really being held back by the cloud cover and the shower activity that is out there. Here is a list of temperature observations from across the area:

Birmingham 81
Tuscaloosa 80
Gadsden 81
Anniston 78
Cullman 81
Hamilton 81
Clanton 81
Alexander City 79
Montgomery 84

WHAT TO EXPECT FOR TODAY: Expect mostly cloudy to cloudy skies over the area with an increased chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Not everyone will get rain today, but the odds for any one spot getting rain will be about 1 in 3. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to just over 90 for most spots in Central Alabama. Even though high temperatures will be down a little, the higher dew points will not make it feel any cooler.

CODE GREEN AIR QUALITY: The Air Quality Index for the Birmingham Metropolitan Area will be in the “Code Green” for ozone and particulate matter 2.5. No actions needed for today.

TODAY’S CLIMATOLOGY FOR BIRMINGHAM: The normal high for July 27th is 91, while the normal low is 70. The record high for today was set back in 1952 at 102. The record low was set back in 1911 at 59.

THURSDAY’S OUTLOOK: With a weakness in the upper ridge across the deep south, we’ll have a better chance of rain tomorrow and in to Friday. So expect a mix of sun and clouds, with a 50/50 chance of showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. Not everyone will get rainfall, but between today and Friday many communities should see at least one decent downpour.

HEADED TO THE BEACH: About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine on the coast through the weekend with a passing storm from time to time from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach; highs on the immediate coast 87-90, with low to mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

THE TROPICS: Still no sign of any tropical mischief across the Atlantic basin through the weekend.

WEATHERBRAINS: This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists at ABC 33/40. You can listen anytime on the web, or on iTunes. You can find it here.

ADVERTISE WITH US: Deliver your message to a highly engaged audience by advertising on the AlabamaWX.com website. The site enjoyed 10.2 MILLION pageviews in the past 12 months. Don’t miss out! We can customize a creative, flexible and affordable package that will suit your organization’s needs. Contact Bill Murray at (205) 687-0782.

Showers/Storms Slowly Increase In Number

| 5:24 am July 27, 2016

HEAT LEVELS DOWN; SHOWER COVERAGE UP: We expect this trend for the rest of the week as the upper ridge across the Deep South weakens a bit. Understand this still doesn’t mean it will rain everywhere, but the coverage of scattered showers and storms should be higher through Friday. The chance of any one spot getting wet today is in the 30-40 percent category, rising to 50-55 percent tomorrow and Friday. Best chance of showers and storms will come during the afternoon and evening hours, but we can’t totally rule out a late night or morning shower. I do think many communities will see at least one decent downpour over the next three days.

Afternoon highs will be generally in the 87-90 degree range through Friday, which is below average for late July in Alabama. Of course, dewpoints will remain sky high, so I am not sure “cooler” is the right word… Perhaps we should say “not as hot”.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Expect a mix of sun and clouds Saturday and Sunday with scattered showers and storms around both days, mostly during the 1:00 to 9:00 p.m. time frame. Highs 89-92 for most places.

NEXT WEEK: The upper ridge seems to strengthen a bit, meaning showers and storms should be a little more widely scattered for the first half of the week with highs up in the low 90s. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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TROPICS: Still no sign of any tropical mischief across the Atlantic basin through the weekend.

AT THE BEACH: About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine on the coast through the weekend with a passing storm from time to time from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach; highs on the immediate coast 87-90, with low to mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be speaking at a senior adult function this morning at Millerville in Clay County… Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Showers/Storms More Numerous Tomorrow

| 3:27 pm July 26, 2016

RADAR CHECK: The most active thunderstorms on radar this afternoon are over the Black Belt region of West Alabama… The storms are moving northwest, and are producing heavy rain and gusty winds…

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Additional showers and storms are possible through the evening hours in the tropical air over Alabama. Temperatures are mostly in the low to mid 90s.

TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY: The upper ridge over Alabama will weaken slightly, and the air aloft will be a little colder, making the air more unstable. Accordingly, we will expect to see an increase in the number of showers and storms each day. Most of them will come during the afternoon and evening hours, but we can’t rule out a late night or morning shower. And, due to the increase in the number of showers and storms, heat levels come down a bit. Many North Alabama communities won’t get out of the 80s; with 90s confined to the southern half of the state.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: An ocean of humidity will continue to cover the Deep South, and we will continue to deal with scattered showers and storms Saturday and Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds both days. Best chance of storms will come from 1:00 until 10:00 p.m., and highs will be at or just over 90 degrees.

NEXT WEEK: We begin August with some pretty routine mid-summer weather. Hot humid days, scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms. Highs in the low 90s… See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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TROPICS: Dry air continues to cover the Atlantic basin, and tropical storm formation is not expected through the weekend.

AT THE BEACH: About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine daily on the coast from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores through the weekend, and you will deal with an occasional passing shower or thunderstorm. Highs on the immediate coast 87-90, with low to mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

Rainbow photo below was this morning at Panama City Beach… Photo from Ashlie Halbrook…

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We have a Tuesday night special tonight at 8:30 CT… You can watch it live here

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today seeing the kids in the summer program at Lake View Elementary… Be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. Tomorrow…

Midday Nowcast: Rinse and Repeat Forecast

| 12:02 pm July 26, 2016

Pretty easy forecasting this time of year, as temperatures are very similar each day, and there is nearly always a threat for rain. For today, temperature are heading towards the 90s this afternoon, and overall it is just a hot and humid Tuesday.

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We are seeing plenty of sunshine this afternoon, but we are also seeing clouds on the increase as well.

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At the writing of this forecast, most of Central Alabama is dry, but we note several showers/storms across South Alabama. Through the afternoon and evening hours, we are going to see isolated to scattered showers/storms develop and move southeast to northwest across the state, due to the main area of high pressure to the east of us.

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Much like Monday, nothing too widespread, but there will be a few storms that will produce a lot lightning and intense rainfall and then gradually wind down after daytime heating is loss.

REST OF WORK WEEK: The hot, humid summer weather continues with the daily round of isolated to perhaps scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s degree range each afternoon, while nights will be muggy, with lows in the 70s. To end the work week, the upper ridge weakens and will allow for some troughing over the Southeast. This will allow us to see a gradual increase in the coverage of scattered showers and storms each day, and heat levels a bit lower. Highs should be around the 90 degree mark and we may even see some spots remain in the upper 80s for highs.

AT THE BEACH: A standard summer forecast for the beaches of the Northern Gulf Coast from Dauphin Island east to Panama City. Plenty of sunshine each day, with passing scattered storms from time to time. Highs are in the upper 80s and lower 90s on the beaches, while just inland you can expect low to mid 90s. The sea water temperature early this afternoon at Perdido Pass at Orange Beach is 87.3 degrees. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here .

Have a terrific Tuesday!

Muggy Days, Scattered Showers And Storms

| 6:31 am July 26, 2016

TROPICAL MOISTURE: Not much overall change in Alabama’s weather today. Partly sunny, hot, humid weather continues with scattered showers and storms around this afternoon and early tonight. The high will be in the 92-95 degree range, and the chance of any one spot getting wet today is about one in four. Just what you expect in late July.

REST OF THE WEEK: The upper ridge weakens a bit, and with instability values increasing we expect general increase in the number of scattered showers and storms tomorrow through Friday. We still can’t promise rain for everyone, but most communities should see a decent downpour on one or more of these days. And, with the increase in clouds and showers, temperatures will back off a bit. In fact, some places won’t get out of the 80s. The NAM model is printing a high of only 86 for Birmingham tomorrow and Thursday. We will keep it close to 90 in the forecast.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: No real change. Mixed sun and clouds, scattered showers and thunderstorms, highs around 90 Saturday and Sunday. Of course, in summer, there is no way of knowing in advance when and where storms pop up since they are random and scattered, but the best chance of one will come during the afternoon and evening hours. But, with a weaker ridge and potential for a few small scale boundaries around, we can’t rule out a late night or morning shower.

NEXT WEEK: The persistence forecast is the best idea. Partly sunny days, scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms with highs in the low 90s. No sign of any triple digit heat issues for the next 10-15 days. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains quiet and tropical storm formation is not expected this week.

AT THE BEACH: About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine daily on the coast from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach through the weekend… with an occasional passing thunderstorm just to make it interesting. Highs 87-90 on the immediate coast, with low to mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

Here is a nice look at an early morning offshore storm at Fort Morgan… photo from @seshau

Seshau_2016-Jul-26

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have a weather program this morning at Lake View Elementary in Tuscaloosa County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!