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Category: Alabama’s Weather

Warmer Before Turning Wet

| 7:25 am February 14, 2016

Most of Alabama is waking up chilly Valentine’s Day morning with temperatures across North and Central Alabama in the 20s. It looks like we can say good bye to these chilly temperatures for at least a week as the overall weather pattern moderates for the Southeast US for awhile.

A surface low is slowly taking shape to our west over Texas. Clouds will invade the Alabama sky later today and into tonight as the surface low moves into northern Mississippi by Monday afternoon. Rain will spread into Central Alabama Monday morning providing us with our first rain in 11 days. A warm sector is likely to develop in the Central Gulf States area including Southeast Louisiana, Southeast Mississippi, and Southwest Alabama where we may see the risk of severe weather including the potential for damaging wind, some hail, and an isolated tornado. Dew points along the coast should surge to near 60 degrees while the air aloft remains fairly cold. The Storm Prediction Center has this area outlined for the standard slight risk of severe storms.

Rainfall for Central Alabama is expected to be around one inch with the heaviest band of 2 to 3 inches from Northwest Mississippi to eastern Kentucky.

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For anyone who may be traveling northward from Central Alabama, a band of winter weather advisories and warnings extended from Virginia eastward to Missouri and then northwestward to the Dakotas. These advisories and warnings cover today into the first half of Monday before the precipitation ends. Western and Central Kentucky into Virginia expects 3 to 5 inches of snow while west and northwest snowfall amounts are expected to be less with around 1 to 3 inches possible.

Rain will end in Central Alabama Monday night or very early Tuesday morning. The upper short wave moves quickly into New York with the surface on Tuesday, so we should dry out. While there will be a trough over the East Coast, it will not have the amplitude of the troughs we’ve seen recently, so while our temperatures will cool slightly, values will actually be very close to our seasonal averages with highs in the upper 50s and lows in the middle and upper 30s.

Thursday the upper air pattern becomes dominated by a ridge allowing us to warm into the lower 60s for highs. Another short wave trough comes into the Upper Mississippi River Valley on Friday with a surface low over the western Great Lakes. With a good southerly flow across the Southeast US with a high situated along the East Coast, we should see afternoon temperatures warm well into the 60s.

That trough moves to the Mid-Atlantic States on Saturday while a weak cold front drags into the Southeast US but begins to washout. As I noted yesterday, the GFS wants to produce a few showers for North and Central Alabama, but with precipitable water values fairly low, the chance for any showers seems pretty small. Temperatures for the end of the week and the weekend look pretty nice with lows in the 40s to mid 50s and highs in the 60s with 70s possible across South Alabama.

But don’t get used to those mild to warm temperatures. The GFS promises another shot of cold air with a fairly deep trough over the eastern half of the country around the 24th of February. Once that trough gets established, it remains in place through the end of February so it looks like the month will go out on a somewhat cold note.

I had a great time visiting with folks at the World of Wheels yesterday afternoon. The event continues today, so be sure to drop by the ABC 3340 booth if you can. James Spann will have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Monday morning, but you can always check by here for notes about Alabama weather. Have a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Cold Today, Warmer Sunday, Wet Monday

| 7:15 am February 13, 2016

The expected weather for Central Alabama runs the gamut from cold to wet over the next several days. Alabama is waking up to a clear sky with temperatures in the vicinity of freezing while the Tennessee River Valley counties are in the 20s. A surface high was centered Minnesota and Iowa while aloft we have yet another fairly deep trough over the eastern US with ridging along the Rockies. This pattern was allowing bitterly cold air to invade the northern portions of the US from the Dakotas to New England with lots of single digit temperature readings. The watch/warning map included a band of winter weather advisories from the Dakotas southeastward to Central Illinois. Wind chill advisories and warnings covered much of the Great Lakes area, all of New England, and much of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia and West Virginia.

The upper air pattern will change fairly quickly as the upper trough moves quickly out into the Atlantic and the upper flow flattens over the Southeast US. This will allow us to warm up nicely for Sunday as temperatures climb nicely into the 50s after a very brisk morning with lows well down in the 20s. Clouds will return Sunday with the sky expected to become cloudy by late afternoon and evening. Then the wet weather arrives.

A fast moving upper trough will move from the Missouri/Kansas border on Monday into the Atlantic by Tuesday. This will bring a weak surface low from northern Louisiana to the Mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday. This opens the way for some thunderstorms on Day 3, Monday, mainly along the Central Gulf Coast from Southeast Louisiana to the western Florida Peninsula. SPC has this area outlooked with a marginal risk for severe storms. Given that the main dynamics are further north and the warm sector won’t have much time to develop, the threat for severe weather should be low, but not zero. Temperatures will recover nicely despite the clouds and rain with highs Monday in the middle to upper 50s.

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A stronger trough come into the western Great Lakes area on Tuesday with a strong surface low over Illinois. This sets up yet another snow storm for the Northeast US for Wednesday, but with moisture very limited, the from coming through the Southeast should be dry. Tuesday should be a fairly warm day for Central Alabama with highs around the 60-degree mark. That dry front is going to knock temperatures back again for Wednesday but only a little with highs in the middle 50s.

Ridging aloft becomes the main story for our weather pattern for Thursday and Friday. Another trough that remains well to our north on Friday and Saturday will bring another cold front into the area on Saturday. At least for now, it looks like only small chances for some showers on Saturday with highs in the lower 60s.

Looking out into voodoo country, a strong trough dives into the eastern US on Tuesday and Wednesday, dropping out temperatures back again. Ridging will again moderate our temperatures before another trough dives through the Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic States by the 28th of February.

Thanks for tuning into the Alabama Weather Xtreme Video. I plan to have the next edition posted here by 8 am or so on Sunday. I’m looking forward to some meet-and-greet time today as ABC 3340 participates in the World of Wheels at the BJCC. If you plan to be there, be sure to look up our booth. Enjoy your day and stay warm. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Cold Air Returns Tonight

| 3:01 pm February 12, 2016

MILD FEBRUARY AFTERNOON: Temperatures have soared into the mid 60s across much of North/Central Alabama this afternoon with a good supply of sunshine. But, don’t get used to this since a new surge of very cold air will roll into the state tonight.

BIG DROP: Tomorrow will be about 25 degrees colder; the high will be close to 40 degrees, and most communities north of Birmingham won’t make it out of the 30s despite a sunny sky. We are forecasting a low in the lower 20s early Sunday, but colder valleys and protected areas could reach the upper teens. Then, Sunday will be dry with a partly sunny sky and a high at or just over 50 degrees.

Clouds thicken quickly Sunday night ahead of an approaching wave that will bring a soaking rain to the state Monday.

NEXT WEEK: Rain should arrive after midnight Sunday night into early Monday morning, and we might hear of some reports of sleet as the precipitation begins, but temperatures should be above freezing, and no impact from winter weather is expected in Alabama. It just looks like a soaking rain for the state Monday and Monday night as a surface low tracks right on top of us; rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely, and some down in South Alabama could hear some thunder.

The weather will be dry for the rest of the week; we are forecasting a high in the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by 60s Thursday and Friday. Some places might touch 70 degrees Friday February 19. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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JUST A REMINDER: Although the latter half of February looks pretty mild, we always have sharp cold snaps in March and April, and some of the biggest snows have happened late in the season as well. Winter isn’t over.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I had a great time today speaking to the students at Helena Middle School… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here Monday morning by 7:00 a.m… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Cold Air Rolls Into Alabama Tonight

| 6:04 am February 12, 2016

ONE MORE MILD AFTERNOON: For a change, temperatures are generally above freezing this morning across Alabama, and we project a high in the low 60s this afternoon with a mix of sun and clouds. A dry cold front will arrive late today, and will bring a sharp weather change for the weekend.

COLD AIR RETURNS: On the positive side, tomorrow should be a bright, sunny day, but the day will be much colder. The high will be around 40 degrees, and many places north of Birmingham won’t get out of the 30s. Then, we drop down into the low 20s early Sunday, and some of the colder valleys and protected areas could reach the upper teens.

Sunday will stay dry; the high Sunday afternoon will be at or just over 50 degrees in most spots.

RAIN RETURNS: Clouds thicken quickly Sunday night, and some rain will begin after midnight. I fully expect to hear of some reports of sleet as the precipitation begins, but temperatures will be above freezing, and icy travel looks very unlikely across North Alabama.

Rain continues through Monday and Monday night as a surface low tracks right over North Alabama; rain amounts should exceed one inch for most communities. Some thunder is possible over the southern half of the state in the warm sector of the storm system.

REST OF NEXT WEEK: The weather will be dry. Afternoon highs will be in the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday, and then we will enjoy 60s Thursday and Friday as a pattern changes sets up mild temperatures for the southern U.S. This will likely continue for the rest of the month… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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TWO YEARS AGO TODAY: A winter storm dropped over 6 inches of snow on parts of Alabama, and also was responsible for a significant ice event over far East Alabama; many trees and power lines were downed atop Mount Cheaha due to ice accumulation.

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have a weather program today at Helena Middle School… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Mild Tomorrow; Much Colder Saturday

| 3:16 pm February 11, 2016

FINE WINTER AFTERNOON: Temperatures are not too far from 60 degrees this afternoon across North/Central Alabama with a good supply of sunshine, and tomorrow will stay dry and pleasant with a high close to 60.

WEEKEND COLD SNAP: A cold front will pass through the state in dry fashion tomorrow night, and will pull down much colder air for the weekend. Despite sunshine in full supply, the high Saturday will be only around 40 degrees, and we drop down into the low 20s early Sunday (teens are very possible for the colder valleys and protected areas).

Sunday will feature a decent amount of sunshine with a high between 47 and 50 degrees. Clouds thicken quickly Sunday night.

WET WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK: A wave will bring a soaking rain to Alabama Monday and Monday night; still some risk of a light “wintry mix” of sleet or freezing rain as the precipitation begins late Sunday night across far North Alabama, but models continue to trend warmer, and it looks just like a cold rain for most places. If we have any risk of icy travel early Monday, it will be over the far northeast corner of the state. And, even there the risk looks very marginal for now.

Rain amounts could exceed one inch across North Alabama by late Monday night, thanks to a surface low that will track right on top of us. I guess some thunder is possible, but there is no risk of severe weather. And, the rain will end from west to east after midnight Monday night/early Tuesday morning.

The sky becomes mostly sunny Tuesday with a high in the 50s.

WARMER DAYS: A pattern change will bring mild temperatures to the state over the latter part of next week; looks like we will enjoy highs in the 60s Wednesday through at least Friday. The mild pattern should hold through the rest of February. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
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I had a great time today as the “mystery server” at Oak Mountain Intermediate School… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…