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Category: Alabama’s Weather

Moisture Levels Rising

| 6:45 am August 28, 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY: Temperatures are mostly in the 60s early this morning across the great state of Alabama, and we see nothing on radar. Today will be partly sunny, and the latest high resolution model data suggests a few widely scattered showers could break out this afternoon. The chance of any one spot getting wet is about one in five, and the high this afternoon will be in the 87 to 90 degree range.

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL WEATHER: Most of the stadiums will be dry tonight, although a few could see a brief shower during the first half. Temperatures will fall from near 80 degrees at kickoff, into the mid 70s by the final whistle.

OUR WEEKEND: Moisture levels will continue to rise, and we will have scattered showers and thunderstorms around tomorrow and Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds. While the best chance of a shower or storm will come during the afternoon and evening hours, we can’t totally rule out a late night or morning shower. Highs will be generally in the mid 80s.

NEXT WEEK: Our weather is looking relatively quiet; for now we will mention only widely scattered afternoon showers Monday through Wednesday, with highs in the 87 to 90 degree range along with partly sunny days and mostly fair nights. Tropical Storm Erika could bring some rain to far Southeast Alabama, but for now the impact on the northern half of the state seems to be insignificant.

EYES ON ERIKA: The tropical storm just south of Puerto Rico looks very disorganized this morning. The circulation center remains displaced from the convection due to wind shear, and today the system will have to move over the mountainous island of Hispaniola. There is a very real chance this thing could dissipate over the next 24 hours, much like Danny last week.

rb_lalo-animated

If the system survives, it seems to be headed for the Florida. With a weaker system, models continue to trend to the left, and now the official NHC track brings Erika through the Florida Peninsula as a tropical storm early next week. It doesn’t make much sense to really focus on the “center line”, since the convection could still be removed from the center. Hopefully this will bring some drought relief to Central and South Florida without many other problems.

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Understand there is still a good bit of uncertainty in this forecast… take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for all the maps and graphics associated with Erika, along with more thoughts on the ultimate destination.

GULF COAST WEATHER: We will forecast about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine through early next week from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores, with a few widely scattered storms. Highs will be in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, and sea water temperatures remain mostly in the mid 80s.

Still a little too early for a specific Labor Day weekend forecast on the Gulf Coast. A good chance Erika will have dissipated by then, and otherwise I don’t see any reason for serious rain problems for now. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the special we did last night on the 10th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.

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I will be traveling today, so just one Weather Xtreme video, but I will post some forecast notes later this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

One More Dry Day For Alabama

| 3:43 pm August 27, 2015

ANOTHER PLEASANT AUGUST DAY: With a good supply of sunshine, temperatures are mostly in the mid 80s across the great state of Alabama this afternoon, and again there is no rain on radar. Today is the 12th consecutive day with a high under 90 (at Birmingham), and fourth consecutive day with no rain.

We stay dry tomorrow… the sky will be partly to mostly sunny with a high close to 90 in most places.

THE WEEKEND: Moisture levels will rise, and we will mention the risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. Otherwise, expect a mix of sun and clouds with a high in the mid 80s. Chance of any one spot getting wet both days is about one in three; best chance of showers will come during the afternoon and evening hours, but we can’t rule out a late night or morning shower as well.

NEXT WEEK: While eyes will be on potential Hurricane Erika just off the South Atlantic Coast of the U.S., our weather looks relatively quiet, with partly sunny days, fair nights, and only widely scattered showers. Highs next week will be in the 88 to 91 degree range, about average for the end of August in Alabama.

CHALLENING TROPICAL FORECAST: We have more questions than answers with Tropical Storm Erika this afternoon. Convection is now displaced well to the east of the circulation center due to wind shear, and NHC estimates maximum sustained winds at 45 mph. Also, the center has reformed farther to the south, putting computer model data into question due to poor initialization.

vis_lalo-animated-5

Strengthening is not expected for the next three days due to shear, and interaction with Hispaniola. In fact, it is not totally out of the question that Erika dissipates like Danny last week. But, there is a pretty good chance it survives, and conditions will favor strengthening by Sunday and Monday. The official NHC track has been adjusted slightly to the left, putting Erika near the Florida Atlantic Coast Monday as a category one hurricane.

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Odds are still high this won’t be a Gulf of Mexico storm, but the chance is not zero. Overall forecast confidence is low, and expect changes in coming days. Everyone from the Florida Peninsula up to the North Carolina Outer Banks will need to keep an eye on this one.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Mostly sunny weather continues tomorrow from Gulf Shores west to Panama City Beach; then for the weekend expect about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine both days with potential for a few scattered thunderstorms. A little too early for a specific Labor Day weekend forecast, but at the moment we don’t see anything that would suggest significant problems.

See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will have a special Hurricane Katrina 10th Anniversary special tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7” on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Slow Warming Trend Ahead

| 6:19 am August 27, 2015

SLOW WARM-UP: Another delightful morning; Vic Bell up at Black Creek reports 54 degrees, many of the cooler pockets across North Alabama are between 53 and 58 for another nice taste of fall. Expect another sunny day today with a high in the mid 80s; the humidity will stay low. We stay dry tomorrow with a high in the upper 80s, and a few spots could touch 90. Keep in mind today is the 12th consecutive day with a high below 90 degrees in Birmingham.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Moisture levels rise, and we will need to mention a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms both days. Not a wash-out, but keep in mind you will have to dodge an occasional passing shower or storm Saturday and Sunday. Otherwise, days will feature a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the mid 80s.

NEXT WEEK: A decent chance we get into the subsidence ring surrounding what should be Hurricane Erika, meaning showers will be few and far between. Partly sunny days, fair nights, and highs in the 87 to 90 degree range most afternoons.

ERIKA: The tropical storm near the Leeward Islands is getting stronger and better organized this morning; maximum sustained winds are now estimated to be 50 mph.

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The system is expected to move through the Bahamas over the weekend, then reaching hurricane strength just off the Florida Atlantic Coast Monday.

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It is important to note that this forecast track can, and probably will change, so all interests in the Florida Peninsula up through the coast of the Carolinas need to keep a close eye on this. We are very confident this will not be a Gulf of Mexico storm, and there will be no direct impact on Alabama (we stay on the dry side). See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny weather continues today and tomorrow along the coast from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores with only a slight risk of a shower. Then, for the weekend, about 6 to 8 hours of sun Saturday and Sunday with a passing storm possible from time to time. Highs on the coast will stay in the 80s, and sea water temperatures remain mostly in the mid 80s.

Erika will have no impact on the Central Gulf Coast. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce a special on the 10th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7” on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be the emcee of a fundraiser today for the Leukemia & Lymphoma Society in Birmingham… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Humidity Levels Rise Late This Week

| 3:32 pm August 26, 2015

AS NICE AS IT GETS: Feels more like early October across Alabama today; a sunny sky, low humidity, and temperatures about 10 degrees below average. Some spots, like Cullman and Haleyville, didn’t get out of the 70s today, with low 80s for Birmingham.

Tonight will be very pleasant with a clear sky; we will forecast a low near 60 early tomorrow, but cooler pockets will easily visit the 50s again.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: Mostly sunny weather continues with a slow warming trend; we expect a high in the mid 80s tomorrow, and upper 80s Friday. Humidity levels will begin to rise Friday making it feel more like August again.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Moisture will continue to increase from the east, and we will forecast a mix of sun and clouds Saturday and Sunday with some risk of scattered showers and storms. The best chance of showers will come during the afternoon and evening hours, and the highest coverage should be on the eastern side of the state. Afternoon highs over the weekend will be mostly in the upper 80s.

NEXT WEEK: Looks fairly quiet; just a few widely scattered showers each afternoon, with partly sunny days and highs close to 90 degrees. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

EYES ON ERIKA: Tropical Storm Erika is packing sustained winds of 45 mph this afternoon as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands. It will move over Puerto Rico tomorrow with potential for beneficial rain, and then on to the Bahamas Friday and Saturday. The system is expected to remain a tropical storm through Sunday, but a number of computer models indicate the chance of strengthening after passing longitude 75W.

The official forecast from NHC brings Erika into Southeast Florida, not too far from Miami, Monday morning as a category one hurricane.

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We do note the 18Z models have shifted a bit to the right, and there is a real chance that Erika could turn northward before making landfall in Florida.

AL05_current

There remains a good bit of uncertainty in the forecast, but those that live in the Florida Peninsula need to keep up with the latest forecasts. It is unlikely that Erika gets into the Gulf of Mexico, but we can’t totally rule that out. Again, see the Weather Xtreme video for maps and graphics.

AT THE BEACH: Very nice weather continues with mostly sunny days and fair nights on the Gulf Coast from Gulf Shores west to Panama City Beach through the weekend… just a few isolated storms around. Highs will be in the upper 80s, and sea water temperatures are mostly in the mid 80s. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Feels Like October

| 6:30 am August 26, 2015

REFRESHING MORNING: Here are some temperatures across the great state of Alabama at daybreak…

Fort Payne 50
Valley Head 50
Black Creek 51
Cullman 52
Sycamore 53
Concord 54
Anniston 56
Fayette 56
Center Point & Helena 57
Birmingham 59
Tuscaloosa 61

Tuscaloosa’s official low was 59 this morning, which ties the record low for August 26, set in 1966.

Expect another delightful day, with a sunny sky, low humidity, and below average temperatures. The high today will be in the low to mid 80s.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: We stay dry with ample sunshine both days and a slow warming trend; we will see a high by Friday in the 87 to 90 degree range.

THE WEEKEND: Moisture will slowly increase from the east, and we will mention some risk of scattered showers Saturday and Sunday. Best chance of a shower will come over the eastern half of the state, and highs will remain in the 87 to 90 degree range. Not rainy weekend at all, but just understand a passing shower is possible from time to time, especially east of I-65.

NEXT WEEK: The weather looks relatively quiet; any showers during the week should be widely scattered, and afternoons will be hotter with highs close to 90 degrees as we begin meteorological fall Tuesday. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

ERIKA: The tropical storm in the Atlantic will move over the northern Leeward Islands tonight, and should bring beneficial rain to Puerto Rico tomorrow. The system is weak and not well organized; maximum sustained winds are only 40 mph this morning.

Erika is fighting the same environmental setup Danny dealt with last week; dry air and shear. If the system survives, conditions will be much more favorable for strengthening late this weekend as Erika moves through the Bahamas, and NHC brings it up to hurricane strength Sunday night as it nears Southeast Florida…

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It is important note that steering currents will be weak in five days, and this forecast could change easily in coming days. Here is a look at the GEFS ensemble guidance. The mean is the line with the black boxes…

gefs_AL05_current

Note some members take Erika in to the far eastern Gulf of Mexico, while others recurve the system before reaching the U.S. It is simply too early to make a call on the final destination, and the potential impact on Florida and the U.S. mainland. But, those that live in the Florida Peninsula will need to keep a very close eye on Erika in coming days, and keep up with the latest forecasts.

The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.

AT THE BEACH: The Central Gulf Coast looks good through the weekend, with mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only isolated showers or storms. Highs on the coast will be in the upper 80s, and the sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 82 degrees. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

I will be doing a safety program for ALAGASCO employees in Anniston today… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Cool Summer Night Ahead

| 3:42 pm August 25, 2015

FALL PREVIEW: What a delightful day; this is as nice as it gets in August in Alabama. Blue sky, sunshine, low humidity, and excellent visibility. Temperatures are in the low to mid 80s, and not a single shower in the entire state.

Photo below is from @objectivityrach, taken this afternoon in downtown Birmingham.

ObjectivityRach_2015-Aug-25

Many communities will drop into the 50s early tomorrow for a very nice taste of fall; Birmingham’s record low for August 26 is 55 set in 1966… we will probably miss it be a couple of degrees.

REST OF THE WEEK: We stay dry through Friday, with sunny days and clear pleasant nights. Highs hold in the mid 80s tomorrow and Thursday, followed by upper 80s Friday. Humidity levels will also begin to creep up by the end of the week; we all know that “sticky” feeling will be back.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Most of the state should stay dry Saturday, although a few showers could show up near the Georgia border, over the far eastern side of the state, where moisture levels will rise. Then, there will be risk of scattered showers statewide Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs over the weekend will be in the 87 to 90 degree range.

Today is the 10th consecutive day with a high under 90 degrees for Birmingham… will be interesting to see if we can finally rise back to 90 at some point over the weekend.

NEXT WEEK: Some risk of widely scattered showers during the first half of the week, otherwise partly sunny days with a high close to 90; see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days and fair nights with only isolated showers from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores through the weekend. Highs in the upper 80s on the coast, with sea water temperatures in the mid 80s. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

TOPIC: TROPICS: Tropical Storm Erika is packing sustained winds of 45 mph, and will be near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday. A decent chance this becomes a hurricane over the Bahamas early next week; it remains to be seen if this will impact the U.S. Atlantic Coast. Just too early to call for now.

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gefs_AL05_current

For now odds are low that this will be a Gulf of Mexico storm.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave will emerge off the coast of Africa tomorrow, and some slow development is possible over the next few days.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…