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Category: Alabama’s Weather

Summer-like Weather in the Week Ahead

| 7:17 am May 29, 2016

Looks like Central Alabama will be in a summer-like weather pattern for the week ahead as we remain between active weather east and west of us.

Tropical Storm Bonnie was located right on the South Carolina coast this morning bringing heavy rain to parts of South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and North Carolina. Bonnie was still classified as a tropical storm, however, with about half of the circulation over land, it should continue to weaken and become a depression on Memorial Day as it drifts northeastward along the coast. To our west, active weather continued to plague West Texas with an upper trough over the Southwest US.

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Here in Central Alabama, we remained under a weakened upper ridge, but an upper ridge nevertheless. That along with the relatively high humidity will keep us in a summer-ish pattern where we’ll have to mention the possibility of isolated thunderstorms just about each day through the end of the week when our chances are likely to get boosted a bit with the approach of a weak frontal boundary. Radar was clear this morning, and the infrared satellite image indicated a few clouds passing across the Alabama sky. With less clouds today, we should see the highs rebound back into the upper 80s with some spots possibly pushing the 90-degree mark. Great weather for the SEC Championship game today at the Hoover Met where the Florida Gators will take on the Texas A & M Aggies. You can get your tickets here.

Great weather continues for the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida through the rest of the holiday weekend and for much of the week ahead. Expect mostly sunny days and fair nights. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the lower to mid 80s with upper 80s and lower 90s just inland. Rip currents are in the moderate range for most locations, so pay attention to the flags at the beaches. The water temperature at Perdido Pass at Orange Beach was 82 degrees. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here.

Weak ridging remains the primary pattern for us through much of the week ahead. This means morning lows in the upper 60s and afternoon highs in the 88 to 92 range. That pattern begins to change Wednesday and into the latter part of the week as a strong trough comes across the North Central US and finally breaks down the ridge pattern that has been with us for so many days. That trough will come across the Great Lakes on Thursday and Friday dragging the trough across the Mississippi River and bringing a surface frontal boundary into the Southeast US. The GFS is holding back a piece of that trough over the Northwest Gulf of Mexico, so rain chances should drop off Saturday but may not drop completely to zero as the front washes out south of Central Alabama. More clouds along with more numerous showers should see our highs drop back into the 80s.

The seven day periods ends next Sunday with a trough position over the eastern third of the US. The GFS keeps that pattern in place through June 8th and then gradually moves the upper ridge back into the eastern US while the traveling weather systems stay well north of Alabama along the US-Canadian border.

It is a holiday weekend, so while James Spann will be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video, he will probably produce only one video on Memorial Day. You can always check back for notes on what we expect the Alabama weather to do. Enjoy the day and take a moment to remember all of those people in the armed services that have sacrificed to keep our country strong and free. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Note: While I was preparing the video, NHC downgraded Bonnie to a tropical depression.

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Sun, Clouds, and A Few Showers

| 1:38 pm May 28, 2016

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We are seeing a few more clouds today and with those clouds, a few light showers are ongoing. These are mainly along or just east of the Interstate 65 corridor, but for the most part are very light.

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The clouds and rain are holding temperatures down a bit, with upper 70s, but outside these areas, where there is more sun, temperatures are in the 80s this afternoon.

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Tomorrow, we are not expecting as many clouds or showers, so temperatures will likely once again approach the 90s for Central Alabama. Rain chances are very low, but not zero, so don’t be surprised to see a few isolated showers across the Alabama landscape.

WAITING ON BONNIE: Still a tropical depression as of the 1100 AM EDT update. The center of Tropical Depression Two was estimated by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft to be near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 78.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph. This general motion, accompanied by a decrease in forward speed, is expected later today and on Sunday as the system nears the coast. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.

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Recent data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the tropical cyclone remains just below tropical storm strength. However, the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today as it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). No impact for Alabama, but weather along the Georgia and Carolina Coast is only going to deteriorate the next 24 hours as the system approaches the coast.

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MEMORIAL DAY: Not much change in the overall weather pattern. Monday, there could still be a few isolated showers possible, but many communities will remain dry with a partly sunny day. The high will be close to 90F Monday.

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: The final two days of the tournament continue at the Hoover Met. Today a few more clouds with temps a little lower, tomorrow for the championship game, more sun is expected with warmer temps. We will continue to mention a small risk of an afternoon shower or storm today and tomorrow, but rain should pose no big issues. Click Here For Event and Ticket information. .

AM Sprinkles along with Clouds

| 7:23 am May 28, 2016

Sometimes weather patterns get stuck and seem to remain in one pattern for a number of consecutive days. Chock our late May weather up to just that. But even though the overall pattern is not changing and hasn’t changed much this week, Alabama is waking up to cloudy skies along with some light echoes on radar. So look for clouds together with a few sprinkles this morning. Enough rain that you’ll probably need your windshield wipers a little, but rainfall amounts will be very light with rain gauges posting amounts less than a tenth of an inch only in scattered spots.

Clouds are likely to remain with us this afternoon, but because of the clouds, it looks likely that the afternoon high will be held down a good deal with highs mainly in the lower 80s. While I expect nearly all of us to stay dry, there is still the outside chance of an isolated shower this afternoon. If you find yourself headed to the Hoover Met for the SEC Baseball Tournament, be sure to take your sunscreen. Even though we’ll have cloudy skies, the ultraviolet radiation can still create a nasty sunburn. You can get your tickets by clicking right here.

Heading to the beach, the weather is going to be great. Expect mostly sunny days, fair nights through Memorial Day from Dauphin Island across Gulf Shores and east to Panama City Beach. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the lower 80s while inland locations will see upper 80s. Sea water temperature at Perdido Pass in Orange Beach was 80 degrees. Get your detailed beach forecast here.

While the weather pattern for Alabama is not showing much change, that is not the case for the Southwest Atlantic. Tropical depression Two formed late yesterday afternoon and is likely to cause some soaking rain along with strong breezes along the Southeast US coast especially for the Carolinas. There is a possibility that this depression will gain enough strength to be named. If it does, it will be Bonnie, the second named storm for the 2016 season which does not officially begin until June 1st!

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Depression or tropical storm, it is not likely to have much effect on Alabama weather as we stay on the dry side of the system.

Looking at the model projections for Central Alabama, there is not much change all week for us until late in the week. It will continue to be warm with an upper ridge that weakens but stays in place keeping the main traveling weather systems well to our northwest. This means we should see highs in the lower 90s for much of the week ahead. The heat and moisture combination make it imperative that we mention the potential for isolated thunderstorms each day. But the chances remain low and most of us will remain dry.

But that pattern is expected to undergo a change late next week and into the weekend. By Thursday and Friday, a strong upper low will move across the western Great Lakes dragging an upper trough across the Southeast US as the upper ridge is pushed well out into the Atlantic. This pattern change will do two things for us. First, the chances for showers and thunderstorms should go up a good deal for Friday and Saturday. Second, the upper pattern shifts to a northwesterly flow as the trough moves by, so we should see a significant drop in our temperatures with the afternoon highs around 80 on Friday and Saturday.

Looking out into voodoo country, the GFS keeps the trough over the eastern US through Monday, June 6th, and then begins a gradual shift to an upper ridge by Thursday, June 9th. This means that we should see our highs return to the lower 90s with only limited chances for showers mainly during the heat of the afternoon. But the GFS suggests that by June 12th we may see another strong trough coming across the Central Plains that will bring us another break in the heat.

Thanks so much for remaining a blog viewer. I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted here by 8 am or so on Sunday. Enjoy the day whatever you plan to do. I’m hoping to see a little of the action at the SEC Baseball Tournament this afternoon. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Hot Afternoons; Only Isolated Showers

| 3:15 pm May 27, 2016

RADAR CHECK: A glance of the radar at 3:00 this afternoon showers only one shower in the entire state, near Cullman. Otherwise, we have a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures mostly in the upper 80s. A isolated showers will remain possible through the evening hours.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: Not much change. While a few isolated showers are possible, many communities will remain dry through Monday with partly sunny days and fair nights. The high tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 80s, and very close to 90 Sunday and Monday.

NEXT WEEK: Guidance is trending hotter for Tuesday and Wednesday, with low 90s likely thanks to the upper ridge. But, the chance of rain should increase toward the end of the week and the following weekend (June 4-5) as a fairly deep upper trough forms west of the state. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICAL UPDATE: The disturbance northeast of the Bahamas is now Tropical Depression Two… it will bring showery and breezy weather to the Carolinas this weekend along with rip tides. This system will have no impact on Alabama or the Gulf Coast. If it gets a name, it will be “Bonnie”.

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AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights on the coast from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores through early next week with only very isolated showers. Highs in the low 80s on the immediate coast, with upper 80s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: Most of the weekend will be dry; just a chance of isolated showers in Hoover. Partly sunny days, fair nights, highs 87-90 degrees. Get information about the big event here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for my next Weather Xtreme video here Monday morning by 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the long weekend!

Friday Midday Nowcast for Central Alabama

| 11:42 am May 27, 2016

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The latest visible satellite image for the state shows that most of the eastern half of the state is mostly sunny, with the western part of the state with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Currently there are no showers showing up on radar for any part of the state, and for most of us, it should remain that way throughout the rest of the day.

Once again, the active weather in the United States is located back over from Eastern Texas through Eastern Arkansas and Louisiana, and up in the central and northern plains states, up through Eastern Minnesota, Eastern Wisconsin, and some activity in Southern Illinois. As of right now, there are no severe weather watches or warnings in effect for the Contiguous U.S. We do note that the SPC has much of central Kansas and Oklahoma outlined in the standard “Slight Risk” for severe storms, with the main risks being from sporadic large hail and damaging wind gusts. Good news is that it appears to be a day where the risk for tornadoes will be lower than the previous.

QUICK LOOK AT TEMPERATURES: Temperatures at this time are already up in the 80s. The warm spot in the state is Montgomery at 86. Here is a list of temperature readings from across the state at this time:

Birmingham 85
Tuscaloosa 82
Muscle Shoals 82
Huntsville 85
Anniston 83
Alexander City 80
Montgomery 86
Dothan 82
Mobile 82

HRRR Simulated Radar valid through midnight tonight.

HRRR Simulated Radar valid through midnight tonight.

REST OF TODAY: A mix of sun and clouds throughout the remainder the day with just a very small risk of an isolated afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm. The odds for any one place receiving any rainfall is small, and most places will remain dry. Afternoon highs for the Central Alabama area will be in the 87-92 range, and with the dewpoints around 60 today, it will feel a little less comfortable.

AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR BIRMINGHAM AREA: Today’s Air Quality Index will be in the CODE YELLOW (moderate) for ozone and particulate matter. Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.

CLIMATOLOGY FOR BIRMINGHAM: The normal high temperature for May 27th in Birmingham is 84, while the normal low is 61. The record high of 98 was reached in 1962. The record low of 42 was set back in 1961.

THE WEEKEND: A hot and humid weekend in store for Central Alabama, with partly to mostly sunny skies during the day, and fair nights. Only a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the weekend, with the highest risk being tomorrow. Afternoon highs will be in the 87-92 degree range.

HEADED TO THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores through early next week; showers will be very hard, if not impossible to find. Highs will be in the low 80s on the immediate coast, with upper 80s to near 90 degrees inland. See a very detailed beach forecast here.

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THE TROPICS: A sub-tropical storm is expected to form off the South Atlantic coast of the U.S. today or tomorrow; it will head for the coast of the Carolinas where breezy and wet weather is likely. No direct impact one way or another on Alabama or the Gulf Coast.

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: Afternoon highs will remain in the 87-90 degree range in Hoover through Sunday… only a few isolated afternoon showers around. Otherwise, mostly sunny days and fair nights… a great weekend for baseball at the Hoover Met. Get information about the big event here.

WEATHERBRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists at ABC 33/40. You can find it here.

Summer-Like Weather Continues

| 6:18 am May 27, 2016

HOLIDAY WEEKEND: A rather stagnant weather pattern continues across Alabama, and our weather just won’t change much through the Memorial Day weekend. Partly to mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only isolated showers or storms. The chance of any one spot actually getting wet each day is only 10-20 percent; highest odds will be tomorrow, but most places stay dry. Afternoon highs will remain in the 87 to 90 degree range. We note Birmingham reached 90 degrees officially yesterday for the first time this year.

NEXT WEEK: The weather stays the same through the first half of the week, but the GFS continues to suggest we will see higher rain chances by Thursday and Friday with the approach of an upper trough. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WE NEED RAIN: Today will be the 6th consecutive day without rain for Birmingham, and the total over the last 15 days is only 0.14″.

TROPICS: A sub-tropical storm is expected to form off the South Atlantic coast of the U.S. today or tomorrow; it will head for the coast of the Carolinas where breezy and wet weather is likely.

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No direct impact on Alabama or the Gulf Coast.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores through early next week; showers will be very hard, if not impossible to find. Highs will be in the low 80s on the immediate coast, with upper 80s to near 90 degrees inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: Afternoon highs will remain in the 87-90 degree range in Hoover through Sunday… only a few isolated afternoon showers around. Otherwise, mostly sunny days and fair nights… a great weekend for baseball at the Hoover Met. Get information about the big event here.

ON THIS DATE IN 1973: A violent, long track F4 tornado touched down northeast of Demopolis and traveled northeastward. The tornado produced extensive damage that Sunday evening in Greensboro, Brent, Centreville, Montevallo, Columbiana, Wilsonville, Childersburg and many areas in between. The tornado lifted near Mount Cheaha. 72 people were injured and one person was killed in Greensboro. 90% of the town of Brent was destroyed killing 5 people and injuring 56. 216 buildings were destroyed, 570 buildings were damaged, 97 mobile homes were destroyed, and 45 businesses were damaged or destroyed. More than 12,000 acres of timber was destroyed.

The old National Weather Service WSR-57 radar site just west of Brent was destroyed; learn more and see pictures on this great site put together by John Brasher.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Little Change Through The Weekend

| 3:27 pm May 26, 2016

FEELS LIKE SUMMER: This afternoon temperature has reached 90 degrees officially at Birmingham for the first time this year. Muscle Shoals reports 92….

Temperatures

Nothing on radar, and the sky is mostly sunny. And, like recent days, big storms have formed across the nation’s mid-section.

TOMORROW THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: An upper ridge will mean little change in our weather through Monday. A weakening trough could bring a slightly higher coverage of scattered showers Saturday, but otherwise we expect partly to mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only isolated showers or thunderstorms. Afternoon highs will remain in the 87-90 degree range for most communities.

NEXT WEEK: We will roll with a persistence forecast. The ridge will prevent widespread rain; just the risk of a few isolated afternoon showers or storms each day. Highs remain 87 to 90 degrees with a good supply of sunshine each day. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: NHC now gives a 60 percent chance of tropical storm formation off the South Atlantic coast of the U.S. in coming days. This will probably be more of a hybrid system, or a “sub-tropical” storm. Models bring the system into the coast of South Carolina over the weekend, where breezy and wet weather is likely.

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One way or another this system will not impact Alabama or the Gulf Coast directly.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights on the coast from Gulf Shores over to Panama City Beach through Memorial Day. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the low 80s, with upper 80s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: The weather won’t change much in Hoover through the end of the tournament Sunday. Mostly sunny hot afternoons, clear nights, and only isolated showers. Afternoon highs will remain in the 87-90 degree range. Get information about the big event here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Holiday Thoughts from Satellite Sheldon

| 11:20 am May 26, 2016
Click image to enlarge

Click image to enlarge

In sharp contrast to your weather over the past month (over 7″ of rain for the month here in the DC area vs 1.38″ in Birmingham), we are now feeling the dry weather you have had and the heat (no, not from Congress) with temperatures reaching the 80’s.

And weather systems far far away in an Ocean or two will have a big impact in keep it mostly rain free in Alabama through the holiday weekend and maybe for the next seven days!

The potential bad thing/downside for a pattern like this is we may have to start talking about increased drought conditions and fire potential for for parts of the state if this were to continue through next week.

Hope your holiday weekend is great!

-Sheldon

Thursday Midday Nowcast for Central Alabama

| 11:13 am May 26, 2016

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Skies are sunny across much of Central Alabama at this hour, and temperatures are already on their way up to the upper 80s to near 90. No rain on the radar for the state, but plenty of action is happening back to our west. Much of Eastern Texas and up to Central Oklahoma is being affected by more showers and strong thunderstorms. Fortunately at this point, there are no warnings in effect for these storms.

However, that is not the case for extreme Northeastern Kansas and Northwestern Missouri. Several severe thunderstorm warnings are in effect for multiple cells in a line that is slowly pushing to the northeast at 10 MPH. Ping pong ball size hail and winds in excess of 60 MPH are the main threats associated with these cells. Flash flood warnings may be needed with these due to the torrential rainfalls and slow movement.

Another line of strong thunderstorms is pushing across Central Indiana, back to the southwest through the southern tip of Illinois, and the line ends in South/Central Missouri. Dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning and gusty winds are associated with this line. Qualifying for the Freedom 100 Indy Lights Race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway was stopped halfway through due to the approaching line of storms. This line is mainly moving to the east, with the southern sections of the line moving slightly to the southeast.

QUICK LOOK AT TEMPERATURES: Temperatures at this time are already well up in the upper 70s to low 80s. The warm spots in the state are Huntsville and Montgomery both at 83. Here is a list of temperature readings from across the state at this time:

Birmingham 82
Tuscaloosa 80
Muscle Shoals 80
Huntsville 83
Anniston 81
Alexander City 78
Montgomery 83
Dothan 82
Mobile 79

REST OF TODAY: Skies will remain mostly sunny for the remainder of the afternoon hours, with just a very small risk of showers and storms moving through the extreme northern counties of the state. Afternoon highs will be at or near 90.

AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR BIRMINGHAM AREA: Today’s Air Quality Index will be in the CODE YELLOW (moderate) for ozone and particulate matter. Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.

CLIMATOLOGY FOR BIRMINGHAM: The normal high temperature for May 26th in Birmingham is 83, while the normal low is 61. The record high of 97 was reached in 1962. The record low of 41 was set back in 1979.

FRIDAY: Sunny but hazy skies are to be expected tomorrow. An afternoon/evening shower is possible with the rising moisture levels, but any that develop will be widely scattered, and most places will stay dry. Afternoon highs will once again will be at or near 90.

HEADED TO THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only isolated showers from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores through the holiday weekend. Highs in the low 80s on the immediate coast, with upper 80s inland. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab early this morning is 79 degrees. See a very detailed beach forecast here.

THE TROPICS: A disturbance east of the Bahamas has a chance of becoming a hybrid sub-tropical storm over the Memorial Day weekend with potential for some impact on the coast of the Carolinas. If by chance this gets a name, it will be called “Bonnie”. No direct impact one way or another on Alabama or the Gulf Coast.

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: The weather continues to look good for the event going on through Sunday at the Hoover Metropolitan Stadium. Mostly sunny, hot, hazy days and fair nights with only isolated afternoon/evening showers. Highs will remain in the 87 to 90 degree range. Get information about the big event here.

WEATHERBRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists at ABC 33/40. You can find it here.

Summer Pattern Remains In Place

| 5:15 am May 26, 2016

HOT AFTERNOONS: Official highs across Alabama yesterday included 90 at Huntsville, 89 at Birmingham and Calera, and 88 at Tuscaloosa and Anniston.

We project afternoon highs back in the 87 to 90 degree range today and tomorrow with hazy sunshine. And, with rising moisture levels, we can’t rule out an afternoon/evening shower, but they will be widely scattered, and most places will stay dry. The big storms will remain across the nation’s heartland from Texas up through the Great Plains.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: The overall weather just won’t change much. If anything, there could be a slight increase in the coverage of showers and storms Saturday with a weakening trough approaching from the west, but still no expectation of widespread rain. A few isolated showers or storms are possible Sunday and Monday, but most places will be dry. Afternoon highs will hold in the 85-90 degree range with a decent amount of sunshine daily.

NEXT WEEK: No real change through the week; very warm, humid days with just isolated showers. We could see an increase in the number of showers and storms by Friday and Saturday (June 3-4) with an upper trough setting up to the west; see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: A disturbance east of the Bahamas has a chance of becoming a hybrid sub-tropical storm over the Memorial Day weekend with potential for some impact on the coast of the Carolinas.

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If by chance this gets a name, it will be called “Bonnie”. No direct impact one way or another on Alabama or the Gulf Coast.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only isolated showers from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores through the holiday weekend. Highs in the low 80s on the immediate coast, with upper 80s inland. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab early this morning is 79 degrees. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: The weather continues to look good for the event going on through Sunday at the Hoover Metropolitan Stadium. Mostly sunny, hot, hazy days and fair nights with only isolated afternoon/evening showers. Highs will remain in the 87 to 90 degree range. Get information about the big event here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Twitter
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!