Category: Severe Weather
A post frontal band of showers is progressing across Alabama tonight, with a thin line of heavy showers just ahead of it along the actual cold front.
There is one heavy thunderstorm approaching Marion in Perry County with frequent lightning and heavy rain. It will make it into Chilton County around Maplesville before 7:15 and move to near Clanton just after 7:30. No a threat to become severe right now. In fact, the storm seems to have weakened a bit in the past few radar scans.
There could be a little lightning in the cell in Clay County as well, although it is not showing up on my lightning output right now.
The cold air is oozing southeastward. It is 36F in Columbus MS and 76F just down highway 82 in Montgomery last hour.
It”s 18F at Harrison in NW Arkansas and 3F at Denver. It is a bone chilling -17F at Glasgow, MT.
The I-59 corridor should get to the middle 30s overnight, with readings below freezing over Northwest Alabama. The rain is ending in Northwest Alabama but may not come to a complete end for everyone in the I-59 corridor overnight. Scattered showers will continue in the 59 corridor and points southeast Saturday morning, increasing areawide tomorrow afternoon.
Highs tomorrow will range from the lower 40s Northwest to upper 40s in the 59 corridor to lower 50s Southeast.
It is a tale of two airmasses across Central Alabama at this hour.
Our frontal system is basically stationary in the I-59 corridor.
It is 61F at the Birmingham Airport and 76F at Calera. 77F at Anniston, and 52F at Tuscaloosa. 78F at Alex City and 46F at Jasper.
It is 37F at Haleyville and 32F at Olive Branch MS, on US-78 just south of Memphis. It is 32F at Oxford as well.
Light showers are over parts of Cullman, Winston, Marion, Lamar and Fayette Counties.
Along and ahead of the front, heavier showers were occurring from Sumter and Greene Counties up into Bibb, Shelby and southern Jefferson Counties over to the Pell City and Anniston areas.
The airmass is becoming marginally unstable ahead of the front in the warm sector. Bu the strong wind shear is behind the frnot. Some of the showers ahead of the front will grow into storms over the next few hours. Can’t rule out one or two of them becoming strong, and there is a small chance of a storm becoming severe, but the chance is very, very small.
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO OUR NORTH, NORTHWEST AND WEST
A wintry mix is occurring this morning from southern Ohio through Indiana and Southern Illinois, much of western Kentucky, southeastern Missouri, much of Arkansas, western Tennessee and northwestern Mississippi.
North of a line from Little Rock to Louisville to Columbus it is mostly snow. South of it, up to 0.1 inches of freezing rain per hour is possible.
Roads are very hazardous over parts of Arkansas. Some decent snowfall accumulations have been reported over southern Missouri.
Ice was starting to accumulate at the Memphis Airport as of 10:30. Roads are becoming slick in parts of western Tennessee.
Ice storm and winter storm warnings are in effect for areas to the west and northwest of Alabama. If you are traveling to the west or northwest, check local weather conditions.
Here are the latest NWS advisories on a national map:
As a dynamic storm system moves closer to the state, the SPC has issued a slight risk for severe weather for much of north-central Alabama for today. This includes Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Huntsville, Gadsden, and Anniston. The risk area is outlined in green and includes portion of central Mississippi and northeastern Louisiana as well.
There is a threat for isolated damaging winds and tornadoes.
A very strong cold front moving into the state will be enhancing the uplift across the state. A very warm and moist air mass is in place across the state, and with these ingredients coming together there will be a threat of severe weather. The SPC is currently determining whether or not to issue a watch for portions of the state.
SUMMARY…A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLD DMGG WINDS AND A TORNADO OR
TWO APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING NEWD INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF AL.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE
DISCUSSION…LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEG DEWPOINTS SPREADING NWD EITHER SIDE OF THE LA/MS BORDER
WITH UPPER 60S /AS OF 16Z/ ADVECTING NEWD INTO NERN MS AND NWRN AL.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOWS THINNING
CLOUD COVER OVER CNTRL MS INTO W-CNTRL AL AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE
LOWER 70S AND THIS HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION. OF PARTICULAR NOTE…THE 12Z RUN OF THE RAP MODEL
UNDER-FORECASTED SURFACE DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING /ROUGHLY 2 DEG F/
AND MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /COMPARED TO THE 12Z JAN RAOB/.
DESPITE SOMEWHAT MEAGER LAPSE RATES…MODIFYING THE 12Z JAN RAOB FOR
MID 70S TEMP/70 DEWPOINT BOOSTS MLCAPE TO AROUND 800 J/KG AND
REDUCES SBCINH WITHIN A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. MORE THAN
ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES ALONG WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT
REGIME AHEAD OF THE SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LEND SUPPORT FOR
MAINLY DIURNALLY-PEAKING STORMS AND AN INCREASED PROPENSITY FOR
GRADUAL STORM INTENSIFICATION AND ISOLD LOW-LEVEL SUPERCELL
ROTATION–PERHAPS CAPABLE OF
An active day for severe weather will continue into the overnight hours as this power and dynamic system moves east. In its wake, widespread damage and destruction has occurred across Illinois and Indiana, where several large tornadoes ripped through communities. The system is moving rapidly and this is causing individual storms to race to the east as well. Illinois and Indiana are in the clear now as the worst of the weather is affecting eastern Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky and northern Tennessee.
The dynamics with this system will allow for convection to continue through the overnight hours. Back closer to us in Alabama, the front is diving into the region and we are seeing showers and storms develop along this boundary across western Tennessee. Over the next few hours, this line could continue to build towards the southwest along the boundary and perhaps cause storms to develop over northern Mississippi. That activity is then expected to head toward north-central Alabama during the overnight hours.
There could be a few strong storms overnight, but once again the dynamics are far to the north of Alabama. Severe weather is not expected for us in central Alabama.
Watching the radar this afternoon, it continues to show the scope of the severe weather outbreak ongoing across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valleys. Numerous tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings are in effect from Kentucky across Indiana and into Michigan. We are now beginning to see the severe weather push into western portions of Ohio.
SPC maintains a high risk for severe weather across the region. Severe storms will continue through the overnight hours even though daytime heating will be lost. The dynamics with this system will support the convection through the overnight hours as it pushes towards the Atlantic coast.
Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds have occurred and will occur through the overnight hours. Locations across Illinois and Indiana have been devastated by this ongoing severe weather outbreak. A steady stream of damage photos are pouring in and you can see them at the @spann twitter handle.