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Central Alabama 7 Day Forecast

Category: Severe Weather

Heavy Showers Developing, Strong to Severe Storms Tomorrow

| 12:54 pm December 22, 2014

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Heavy showers have developed early this afternoon across North and Central Alabama in a moistening atmosphere to the southeast of a disturbance over the Missouri Bootheel.

The moisture increase is in response to an increasing southeasterly flow between a surface high near Washington DC and a surface low near Dallas.

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One of the showers over northeastern Jefferson County dumped some quick heavy rainfall that was of short duration. Only 0.09″ fell at the airport, but he heaviest rain fell between Clay and Springville. That shower is west of Springville now.

Other heavy showers were over parts of Fayette, Walker and Winston Counties. Some of these showers may manage to grow into storms over the next couple of hours and they could produce small hail. But severe weather is not expected across North Central Alabama this afternoon or tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center has a “marginal Risk”, just below their standard “slight risk” forecast in effect for today and tonight for areas south of a line from Demopolis to Greenville to Dothan.

A complex storm system will bring heavy showers and storms to Central Alabama tomorrow starting by late morning as a warm front lifts northward from the Gulf. Those storms will continue into the overnight hours and until after midnight ahead of a cold front. That front will arrive early Wednesday morning, putting an end to the rain and storms.

Tomorrow’s Day Two Outlook from the SPC now has a slight risk as far north as Tuscaloosa and Shelby Counties.

Warnings Count

| 4:11 pm December 19, 2014

Here’s something a little different. Daryl Herzmann, with the Iowa Mesonet, has created a page where you can plot the total number of tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings for a particular WFO (Weather Forecast Office), or for all WFOs in the continental US. I think we all know that the amount of severe weather this year is down, way down – and I count that as a blessing. So how does the warning count look? Well take a gander at the graph below which shows that the warning count, both tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings, was down similar to 2013.

This is indicative of two things. First, and the most important, WFO Birmingham has made a very serious effort to reduce the false alarms (FAR or False Alarm Ratio) by undertaking more local studies, putting more meteorological reasoning into warning decisions, and not being too quick to issue a warning for storms. It’s important that everyone understand that by doing this, the meteorologists at the NWS risk missing a few events, but most likely the ones they might miss, whether severe thunderstorm or tornado, will probably be on the low end of intensity. But I believe that is a risk that should be taken in order to reduce the number of warnings that are issued where no significant severe weather occurs. And I applaud this genuine effort to keep people safe but not cry wolf too much.

Second, it also shows that the occurrences of severe weather has been down. I, for one, am thankful for that.

-Brian-

Warning Count for WFO Birmingham, AL

Warning Count for WFO Birmingham, AL

Severe Weather Threat Winding Down

| 2:38 pm November 23, 2014
Click image to enlarge..

Click image to enlarge..

The rain has ended at the Birmingham Airport and it appears that we will fall just short of one inch of rain today. 0.89 inches had fallen through 2:12 p.m Still, we are grateful for the beneficial rains and even more grateful that severe weather has not been widespread across the state.

It does appear that a tornado may have touched down in eastern Barbour County. A Tornado Debris Signature was evident on radar as the storm prepared to move into Georgia. Trees were reported down at Lakepoint Resort near Eufaula.

A tornado watch remains in effect for Southeast Alabama, but it will be cancelled for the Alabama counties shortly since the activity is now mostly into Georgia.

To the north, just a steady rain as the line passes. Not even any lightning over Northeast Alabama, as the airmass is more stable thanks to the persistent easterly wedge that prevailed yesterday.

As predicted, some clearing is evident on visible satellite imagery now over West Central Alabama. You will see some breaks in the clouds in the Birmingham Metro before sunset.

Tornado Warning Barbour County (Possible TDS at 2:10)

| 2:00 pm November 23, 2014

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This storm likely produced a tornado as it crossed the Chattahoochee River into Georgia around 2:10. Check out the Tornado Debris Signature from the Fort Rucker Radar.

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It is evidenced by the low values (blues) on the correltaion coefficient panel (lower right panel on graphic).

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
EAST CENTRAL BARBOUR COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 215 PM CST

* AT 157 PM CST…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR EUFAULA…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
LAKEPOINT RESORT STATE PARK AND TWIN SPRINGS.

Tornado Warning Russell County

| 1:48 pm November 23, 2014

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Radar indicated rotation approaching Seale in Russell County is the trigger for this tornado warning. It is moving in the direction of Phenix City.

This for panel radar image shows (from top left) 1. an inflow notch on the reflectivity display, 2. rotation on the strom relative velocity, 3. nothing on the correlation coefficient panel (where we would look for signs of tornadic debris) which would be confirmed by low values on 4. the differential reflectivity (indicative of tumbling debris).

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
CENTRAL RUSSELL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 215 PM CST

* AT 146 PM CST…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM
WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SEALE…OR 11 MILES EAST OF
HURTSBORO…AND MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
PHENIX CITY…SEALE…RUSSELL COUNTY SPORTS COMPLEX…LADONIA…
PARKMANVILLE…PHENIX DRAG STRIP…CRAWFORD AND LADONIA SPORTS
COMPLEX.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR
THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER…
CALL 1-800-856-0758 OR TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG ALWX

LAT…LON 3214 8523 3216 8530 3247 8522 3247 8506
3249 8506 3249 8499 3245 8499
TIME…MOT…LOC 1947Z 200DEG 40KT 3221 8523

$$

61

Rain/Storms Moving Northeastward

| 1:19 pm November 23, 2014

Well, as advertised rain and thunderstorms are pushing northeastward across much of Alabama on this Saturday afternoon.

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Rain is overspreading the Birmingham Metro at this hour. But the storms are not severe.

So far there have been a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings in South Alabama and the NWS in Birmingham had to issue a tornado warning based on radar rotation for Barbour, Bullock and Pike Counties. No touchdown was reported and no tornado debris signature appeared on radar.

There is a tornado watch over Southeast Alabama where the best combination of instability and wind shear is present producing a threat for tornadoes.

Over Central Alabama, it is mainly just rain now with very little thunder. The support for the widespread rain (an upper level disturbance) is moving quickly northeast and is outrunning the instability that is lagging behind a bit. That’s good news, cause it means we may get out of this without any severe weather across Central Alabama.

To the south, the risk continues for areas south of a line from Atmore to Thomaston to Phenix City.

Tornado Watch for Southeast Alabama

| 12:35 pm November 23, 2014

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The NWS has issued a tornado watch for areas south of I-85. It goes until 7 p.m. but the activity should be out of Alabama by 5 p.m.

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Counties included are: Barbour, Bullock, Lee, Macon, Montgomery, Pike, Russell [AL] till 7:00 PM CST.

Cities included are Auburn, Eufaula, Montgomery, Opelika, Phenix City, Troy, Tuskegee and Union Springs.

The warm front is now as far north as Troy as evidenced by the jump in dewpoint in the last few minutes to 69F.

Tornado Warning Barbour, Bullock and Pike in SE Alabama

| 12:20 pm November 23, 2014

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Storms are starting to intensify over South Alabama and the Florida Panhandle early this afternoon.

This tornado warning is for radar indicated rotation along the Pike/Bullock/Barbour County line.

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The NWS in Mobile has a severe thunderstorm warning in effect for Butler County around Greenville.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
WEST CENTRAL BARBOUR COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…
CENTRAL BULLOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…
EAST CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 1245 PM CST

* AT 1216 PM CST…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM
WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF BANKS…OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BRUNDIDGE…AND MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
MIDWAY…BOOT HILL…PICKETT…ABERFOIL…JOSIE…TANYARD…PEROTE
AND THREE NOTCH.