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Central Alabama 7 Day Forecast

Category: Severe Weather

Storms Lifting into Birmingham Metro

| 10:36 am November 23, 2014

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Thunderstorms over Bibb and western Chilton County are lifting north northeastward toward the Birmingham Metro at this hour. They will affect Shelby County between 10:40 – 11 a.m. and then move across Jefferson County between 11 – 11:45 a.m.

These storms are elevated, meaning their instability source is above the surface. That makes it hard for these storms to produce severe weather. But they will produce loud booming thunder that will shake the windows and very heavy rain as well as gusty winds.

Other storms are over Fayette County and over East Alabama over parts of Randolph, Tallapoosa, Lee and Chambers Counties.

There is a tremendous amount of wind shear over the area, but no surface based instability. The warm front, marking the edge of that instability is pushing northward through South Alabama It is north of Evergreen now, as evidenced by the 71F degree dewpoint there.

The new SPC Day One Outlook is out. It is basically unchanged with the slight risk in Alabama trimmed down slightly on its northern and western borders.

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Quick Look at Alabama Weather Situation – 9:45 a.m.

| 9:45 am November 23, 2014

Here is a quick look at the Alabama Weather Situation on this Sunday morning.

A dynamic weather system is affecting the Deep South and will bring widespread rain and thunderstorms to Alabama today, including a severe weather threat for parts of the area.

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The upper level disturbance responsible for the active weather is west of Vicksburg MS this morning. You can clearly see it in the water vapor image in the lower left corner of the graphic. Click the graphic to enlarge it. I have shown the winds at 18,000 feet on that smaller panel as well. They are screaming at 70-90 knots over southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana.

The top left panel shows the surface low over western Louisiana with a warm front stretched along the Gulf Coast. It is onshore in South Alabama now, a little further north than the graphic indicates. It will continue to push north all day. The low will track northeast along with the upper level disturbance.

Showers and storms were continuing over southern Mississippi and were breaking out over South Alabama. These storms will spread north through the day. They will have lots of heavy rain and lightning and gusty winds. A few of them could become severe with damaging winds the main threat.

Here is the radar at 9:45. You can see lots of lightning already with these storms that are ahead of the warm front.

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There is a small chance of a tornado south of a line from Jackson AL to Camden to Wetumpka to Lafayette. This line is the northward extent of the SPC Day One Severe Weather Outlook “slight” risk area, their standard severe weather forecast category. The best chance of a tornado is further southeast over Southeast Alabama, southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Dothan is in this “enhanced” risk category, which is between slight and moderate in the SPC nomenclature.

Further north, for places like Demopolis, Tuscaloosa, Jasper, Birmingham, Clanton, Cullman, Talladega, Anniston and Gadsden, the storms will be loud with lots of lightning and thunder, heavy rain and gusty winds and there is chance a few of them could become severe with damaging winds being the main threat, but that chance is small. Can’t rule out a rogue tornado warning during the day in these areas though since helicity values showing low level spin in the atmosphere will be high by early afternoon across much of Central Alabama. But the storms don’t look like they will have much to work with in the way of instability, which makes severe weather way less likely.

We will track the warm front all day to see it’s progress. Storms along the warm front and any that develop behind it will have the best chances to become severe.

PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER TODAY: Have a reliable source for receiving warnings, like a Weatheradio or Smartphone app like MyWARN. Review your personal severe weather safety rules. There is a link at the top of the blog to a compendium of safety rules. Know where you will go quickly in case a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning is issued.

We will have frequent updates throughout the day on the blog.

An Update on the Severe Weather Situation for Tomorrow

| 9:05 pm November 22, 2014

After a very nice late fall Saturday across Central Alabama today with highs in the upper 60s to near 70F and lots of sunshine, thin high clouds are overspreading the area this evening. The clouds are patchy, so you can still see some stars through them. Temperatures are still mild, running around 60F. But the air has a crisp feel to it with dewpoints still in the 40s.

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

In fact, the dewpoint at Anniston is only 40F, while amazingly, the dewpoint at Atlanta is an incredible 28F. That’s really dry. The dewpoints are shown in the large graphic on the right side above.

The reason is that Alabama is still under the influence of an easterly wedge of drier air invading the state from the east thanks to high pressure off the Atlantic Coast, reinforcing the drier air. You can see the surface weatehr map in the bottom left of panel of the graphic.

The wedge will be a limiting factor in our unfolding severe weather threat for tomorrow, at least for Central Alabama.

First, let me say there is no threat for severe weather tonight across Central Alabama. The main threat will come between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. on Sunday.

A very strong upper level disturbance is approaching Dallas tonight. That will be our primary weathermaker over the next 36 hours.

Can’t rule out patches of light rain or showers after midnight tonight through the morning hours across Central Alabama. There could be an isolated heavy shower or even a storm during the morning hours ahead of the main area of rain and storms, but this activity will be isolated.

Widespread showers and storms will enter Southwest Alabama Sunday morning and push northeast. Should reach the Birmingham area by early afternoon. These storms should be elevated, and not surface based, so their main impact will be very heavy rain and loud thunder. But, with a strong mid level wind maximum passing overhead, there could be some damaging wind reports. This will all be between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. from southwest to northeast.

The low level helicity will be maximized during the early afternoon, so it is good that there should not be much surface based instability.

The storms should weaken as they push deeper into the more stable air.

BOTTOM LINE: There is a severe weather threat generally south of a line from Reform to Tuscaloosa to Montevallo to Goodwater. The Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook for Sunday is shown in the top left panel of the graphic above. The main threat will be damaging winds. To the north of the slight risk area defined by the SPC, the threat lessens the further north you go. But isolated storms are still possible during the afternoon hours in places like Jasper, Cullman, Birmingham, Pell City, Gadsden and Anniston.

There is a tornado threat closer to the coast and we can’t rule out an isolated tornado with the activity lifting north, so we will be watching.

LATE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY: Some sunshine will break out during the late afternoon as sinking air behind the disturbance clear the sky. The air will actually become more unstable, but there shouldn’t be enough lift for storms to form. There could be a few late afternoon showers though. Sunday evening should be mainly dry. The main cold front will arrive early Monday morning, quickly pushing temperatures into the 50s for the day.

Flash Flood Watch Extended to More of Central Alabama

| 10:43 pm October 13, 2014

A flash flood watch went into effect at 7 p.m. tonight for much oft he northwestern part of Central Alabama, including Blount, Fayette, Lamar, Marion, Walker and Winston Counties.

The NWS has extended the area of Flash Flood Watch to include Autauga, Bibb, Chilton, Coosa, Dallas, Elmore, Greene, Hale, Jefferson, Lowndes, Marengo, Montgomery, Perry, Pickens, Shelby, St. Clair, Sumter, Talladega and Tuscaloosa Counties until 1 p.m. tomorrow.

Rainfall amounts approaching 2-4 inches have fallen from Winston down through Walker, southeastern Fayette and into Tuscaloosa Counties according to Doppler Radar.

As the storms continue east at about 30 mph, they will continue to dump torrential rains over the rest of Central Alabama tonight. It will only take about 2.5 inches of rain to cause flash flooding.

Intense Storms About to Move into Birmingham

| 9:54 pm October 13, 2014

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Strong thunderstorms are moving into the Birmingham Metro area now. There is no warning for Jefferson County at this time but a tornado watch remains in effect until midnight and the storms could become severe at any time.

In any case, they will produce winds of 50 mph or greater, torrential rain and lots of dangerous lightning.

They are now over western Jefferson County west of Bessemer and Birminghamport.

They will be in Bessemer a little after 10 p.m. and in downtown Birmingham, Homewood and Hoover between 10:15-10:30. Eastern and northern parts of Jefferson County will see them after 10:30.

Some counties are being trimmed from the tornado watch now:
The watch has been canceled for Greene, Sumter, Walker and Winston.
It continues for Autauga, Bibb, Blount, Chilton, Dallas, Etowah, Hale, Jefferson, Lowndes, Marengo, Perry, Shelby, St. Clair and Tuscaloosa.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Hale County

| 9:06 pm October 13, 2014

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
HALE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

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* AT 904 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
AKRON TO SAWYERVILLE TO DUFFYS BEND…AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
GREENSBORO…MOUNDVILLE…NEWBERN…CEDARVILLE…MOUNDVILLE
AIRPORT…HARPER HILL…HAVANA AND ELLIOTS CREEK.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning Tuscaloosa County

| 8:57 pm October 13, 2014

Aliant Bank is a proud sponsor of AlabamaWX.com!

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
EASTERN TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT

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* AT 854 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6
MILES WEST OF BANKHEAD LOCK AND DAM TO MOUNDVILLE…AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
MCFARLAND MALL…BANKHEAD LOCK AND DAM…DEERLICK CREEK
CAMPGROUNDS…LAKE WILDWOOD…COALING…BULL CITY…BROOKWOOD AND
VANCE.

Storms Developing in the Birmingham Metro Ahead of Main Line

| 8:14 pm October 13, 2014

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Our line of thunderstorms is approaching Jasper, Tuscaloosa and Livingston tonight. It is packing lots of lightning, strong gusty winds and torrential rains. The storms are not severe at this time but the potential is still there for them to produce damaging winds and even brief spin up tornadoes.

Additional storms are forming ahead of the main line over Tuscaloosa County as well as Jefferson and Shelby Counties. These are not severe at this time but could also become severe.

A tornado watch remains in effect for almost all of Central Alabama until midnight.