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Central Alabama 7 Day Forecast

Category: Tropical

Hanna Forms

| 8:53 am October 27, 2014

Hanna avn_lalo-animated

The remnant low from Tropical Depression #9, which formed over the southwestern Caribbean last week and moved across the Yucatan into the northwestern Caribbean has developed into Tropical Storm Hanna this morning.

Hanna 130316W5_NL_sm

It is very near the coast of Nicaragua and will move into that country today. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras.

Top winds are 40 mph. Heavy rains of 10-15 inches will be the main problem with life threatening landslides likely.

Hello Gonzo! Well, Actually Gonzalo…

| 1:07 pm October 12, 2014

We have experienced a little burst of activity in the tropical Atlantic as a cycle called the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is bringing favorable conditions to much of the basin.

Gonzalo avn-animated

Tropical Storm Fay scored a direct hit on the island of Bermuda overnight. Winds officially gusted to 82 mph as the 70 mph tropical storm passed just east of the island after midnight last night. Winds dropped to near calm as the center passed and the barometer was measured at 986 mb. It will continue to the east northeast over open ocean over the next few days.

Now comes Gonzalo…

Based on Air Force Reconnaissance reports from the disturbance east of the northern Leewards, the National Hurricane Center is now issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Storm Gonzalo. Gonzalo will produce tropical storm conditions across the northern Leewards, Virgin Islands and perhaps Puerto Rico. The system will recurve to the north.

Here is the latest info on Gonzalo:
SUMMARY OF 130 PM AST…1730 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.4N 58.4W
ABOUT 200 MI…320 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 230 MI…370 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES

Here is the summary of watches and warnings:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* GUADELOUPE
* DESIRADE
* LES SAINTES
* MARIE GALANTE
* ST.MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST.MAARTIN
* SABA
* ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS
* NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

Further east, Hanna is likely to form in coming days as well, but will recurve well to the east of the islands.

TD #6 Forms

| 10:19 am September 11, 2014

TD6 Adv 1 AVN

Tropical depression number six has formed in the eastern Atlantic this morning.

It should recurve harmless over the open Atlantic and poses no threat to land.

144123W5_NL_sm

It should become Tropical Storm Edouard later today.

Update on Cristobal

| 4:00 pm August 24, 2014

vis_lalo-animated

The latest data from the NHC has Cristobal moving north. The official track from the NHC now keeps Cristobal well off the East Coast of the U.S.

…CRISTOBAL MOVING NORTHWARD…
…HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…24.5N 73.0W
ABOUT 155 MI…250 KM ENE OF LONG ISLAND
ABOUT 185 MI…300 KM ENE OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES

8-24-2014 3-52-43 PM

Tropical Storm Cristobal

| 9:03 am August 24, 2014

Earlier this morning, tropical depression four was named Tropical Storm Cristobal. Over the next few days, Cristobal will continue to intensify and is expected to reach hurricane strength off the Southeast Coast. Looking at the satellite imagery, Cristobal is a healthy looking system, with decent inflow and outflow. Being in favorable environmental conditions, there should be no reason why Cristobal will not continue to get better organized through the afternoon and first part of the week.

rb_lalo-animated

Latest specifics on the storm.

…CRISTOBAL RE-FORMS A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST…
…STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…23.0N 73.0W
ABOUT 40 MI…60 KM N OF MAYAGUANA ISLAND
ABOUT 135 MI…215 KM ESE OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES

Now the most important question, where is Cristobal heading? Most of the computer models are pulling the system away from the U.S. mainland. No worries for the Gulf of Mexico, and it should stay far enough away from the East Coast to cause no major issues. It look as though the island of Bermuda will certainly need to be on guard as the models show Cristobal moving very close to the island.

8-24-2014 8-48-28 AM

Depression Forms in Southeast Bahamas

| 4:42 pm August 23, 2014

Tropical Depression 4 has formed in the Southeast Bahama Islands in the vicinity of Turks and Caicos. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a well-defined central circulation this afternoon. Since conditions are favorable for additional development including light to moderate shear and sea surface water temperatures near 30 degree Centigrade, the National Hurricane Center expects the system to become a tropical storm in the next 24 to 36 hours and will be named Cristobal. And since conditions appear to favor intensification, the system could become a hurricane by Tuesday.

TD 4 Track Forecast

The graphic above shows the official track published by NHC. This morning I noted that the GFS was a bit further west of many of the models and it continues to be that way. Looking at a plot of all the models shows that several of the models are now projecting more of a shift westward closer to Florida. If these are correct, and with the various discrepancies, confidence is not especially high right now, then the east coast of Florida could be facing the risk of tropical storm or hurricane conditions in 3 to 4 days. Hopefully the storm will stay at least a couple of hundred miles offshore before it begins to fully recurve to the northeast.

-Brian-

A Frightening Afternoon in 1969

| 3:00 pm August 17, 2014

THIS IS HISTORIC INFORMATION ABOUT 1969’s HURRICANE CAMILLE.  IT IS NOT CURRENT INFORMATION.

On the afternoon of August 17, 1969, an Air Force crew led by Marvin Little penetrated the eye of Camille. One way of estimating the surface winds was to visually observe the sea condition. Their report indicated that it was unlike anything they had ever seen in their training. Dr. Robert Simpson, the head of the National Hurricane Center knew that the training was based on 150 mph. His instinct told him that the winds were probably in the neighborhood of 180 knots (210 mph.)

g171815z

He would take the unprecedented step of listing the winds at 190 mph in a special advisory that would prompt action from many people along the coast who had planned to stay put.

And at 3 p.m., a historic advisory was written.  Here is the discussion…

tcd172100z

…And the text of the advisory…

pub172000z

Hurricane Hunters in Hawaii

| 11:14 am August 7, 2014

The Hurricane Hunters are in Hawaii, but they are not on vacation.

The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron (Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters) have deployed two lanes to Joint Base Pearl Harbor to monitor Hurricane Iselle as it makes landfall tonight and to monitor Hurricane Julio as it passes north of the islands this weekend.

8-7-2014 10-38-18 AM

I always love the Google Earth depictions of the Hurricane Hunter missions, especially since they look like a Lite Brite, a toy from some of our childhoods.

But these two storms mean business and the Hawaiian Islands are battening down.

If Iselle makes landfall as a hurricane on the Big Island tonight, it will be the first landfall of a hurricane since Iniki in 1992. Only three storms have made landfall as full hurricanes in Hawaii since 1950.

The big island has not had a direct landfall from a full hurricane since modern records began in 1950.

2014-08-07_10-58-57

Here is the forecast track for Iselle, showing landfall between 2-3 a.m. CDT, which is 9-10 p.m. Hawaiian time.

Hurricane warnings are in effect for the big island of Hawaii, with tropical storm warnings for the rest of the islands. Flash flood watches are in effect for all of the islands.

Iselle 30 avn_lalo-animated

The storm is unusual in that it has battled an environment full of dry air and decent shear to remain a hurricane. Here is an enhanced satellite image of Iselle.

In a bit, we will take a look at the impact being expected in the islands as Iselle approaches and what affects Julio will have over the weekend.