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Category: Tropical

Update on Cristobal

| 4:00 pm August 24, 2014

vis_lalo-animated

The latest data from the NHC has Cristobal moving north. The official track from the NHC now keeps Cristobal well off the East Coast of the U.S.

…CRISTOBAL MOVING NORTHWARD…
…HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…24.5N 73.0W
ABOUT 155 MI…250 KM ENE OF LONG ISLAND
ABOUT 185 MI…300 KM ENE OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES

8-24-2014 3-52-43 PM

Tropical Storm Cristobal

| 9:03 am August 24, 2014

Earlier this morning, tropical depression four was named Tropical Storm Cristobal. Over the next few days, Cristobal will continue to intensify and is expected to reach hurricane strength off the Southeast Coast. Looking at the satellite imagery, Cristobal is a healthy looking system, with decent inflow and outflow. Being in favorable environmental conditions, there should be no reason why Cristobal will not continue to get better organized through the afternoon and first part of the week.

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Latest specifics on the storm.

…CRISTOBAL RE-FORMS A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST…
…STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…23.0N 73.0W
ABOUT 40 MI…60 KM N OF MAYAGUANA ISLAND
ABOUT 135 MI…215 KM ESE OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES

Now the most important question, where is Cristobal heading? Most of the computer models are pulling the system away from the U.S. mainland. No worries for the Gulf of Mexico, and it should stay far enough away from the East Coast to cause no major issues. It look as though the island of Bermuda will certainly need to be on guard as the models show Cristobal moving very close to the island.

8-24-2014 8-48-28 AM

Depression Forms in Southeast Bahamas

| 4:42 pm August 23, 2014

Tropical Depression 4 has formed in the Southeast Bahama Islands in the vicinity of Turks and Caicos. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a well-defined central circulation this afternoon. Since conditions are favorable for additional development including light to moderate shear and sea surface water temperatures near 30 degree Centigrade, the National Hurricane Center expects the system to become a tropical storm in the next 24 to 36 hours and will be named Cristobal. And since conditions appear to favor intensification, the system could become a hurricane by Tuesday.

TD 4 Track Forecast

The graphic above shows the official track published by NHC. This morning I noted that the GFS was a bit further west of many of the models and it continues to be that way. Looking at a plot of all the models shows that several of the models are now projecting more of a shift westward closer to Florida. If these are correct, and with the various discrepancies, confidence is not especially high right now, then the east coast of Florida could be facing the risk of tropical storm or hurricane conditions in 3 to 4 days. Hopefully the storm will stay at least a couple of hundred miles offshore before it begins to fully recurve to the northeast.

-Brian-

A Frightening Afternoon in 1969

| 3:00 pm August 17, 2014

THIS IS HISTORIC INFORMATION ABOUT 1969′s HURRICANE CAMILLE.  IT IS NOT CURRENT INFORMATION.

On the afternoon of August 17, 1969, an Air Force crew led by Marvin Little penetrated the eye of Camille. One way of estimating the surface winds was to visually observe the sea condition. Their report indicated that it was unlike anything they had ever seen in their training. Dr. Robert Simpson, the head of the National Hurricane Center knew that the training was based on 150 mph. His instinct told him that the winds were probably in the neighborhood of 180 knots (210 mph.)

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He would take the unprecedented step of listing the winds at 190 mph in a special advisory that would prompt action from many people along the coast who had planned to stay put.

And at 3 p.m., a historic advisory was written.  Here is the discussion…

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…And the text of the advisory…

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Hurricane Hunters in Hawaii

| 11:14 am August 7, 2014

The Hurricane Hunters are in Hawaii, but they are not on vacation.

The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron (Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters) have deployed two lanes to Joint Base Pearl Harbor to monitor Hurricane Iselle as it makes landfall tonight and to monitor Hurricane Julio as it passes north of the islands this weekend.

8-7-2014 10-38-18 AM

I always love the Google Earth depictions of the Hurricane Hunter missions, especially since they look like a Lite Brite, a toy from some of our childhoods.

But these two storms mean business and the Hawaiian Islands are battening down.

If Iselle makes landfall as a hurricane on the Big Island tonight, it will be the first landfall of a hurricane since Iniki in 1992. Only three storms have made landfall as full hurricanes in Hawaii since 1950.

The big island has not had a direct landfall from a full hurricane since modern records began in 1950.

2014-08-07_10-58-57

Here is the forecast track for Iselle, showing landfall between 2-3 a.m. CDT, which is 9-10 p.m. Hawaiian time.

Hurricane warnings are in effect for the big island of Hawaii, with tropical storm warnings for the rest of the islands. Flash flood watches are in effect for all of the islands.

Iselle 30 avn_lalo-animated

The storm is unusual in that it has battled an environment full of dry air and decent shear to remain a hurricane. Here is an enhanced satellite image of Iselle.

In a bit, we will take a look at the impact being expected in the islands as Iselle approaches and what affects Julio will have over the weekend.

A Quick Check on the Tropics

| 12:15 pm August 3, 2014

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Tropical Storm Bertha is pulling through the southeastern Bahamas late this morning.

It is beginning to make the expected turn to the north that will eventually presage its recurvature away from the United States. The storm is expected to miss Bermuda as well.

It has top winds of 45 mph but is expected to strengthen some later today as it moves over warm water and encounters upper level winds that are a little more favorable for development. It should not reach hurricane intensity (74 mph or higher) though.

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It will pass about 200 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras Tuesday morning as it accelerates northeastward. It will pass a couple of hundred miles southeast of Newfoundland Thursday morning then start the trek across the North Atlantic.

ELSEWHERE
A trough of low pressure over the Bahamas (not associated with Bertha) is disorganized and does not appear to be a candidate for development.

Update on Bertha

| 11:17 am August 2, 2014

Tropical Storm Bertha continues to move rapidly across the northeastern Caribbean today. Bertha remains rather unorganized, but still has sustained winds of 50 mph. Over the next 24-48 hours, Bertha could intensify some, and she will begin to take a more northerly turn. Heavy rain and gusty winds will be impacting Puerto Rico, the Virgina Islands, and the Dominican Republic today through tonight as Bertha passes nearby.

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Here are the latest specifics on Berta.

…CENTER OF BERTHA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO…
…TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…17.2N 66.7W
ABOUT 90 MI…150 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 230 MI…370 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES

Now the important question, where is Bertha heading? As she begins to take a more northerly turn, she will affect the Turks and Caicos Islands, as well as the southeastern Bahamas. Bertha will then begin to take the northeasterly turn and accelerate. She should stay west of Bermuda, and well to the east of the Atlantic Coast of the U.S. mainland. Bertha should remain a tropical storm, but there is a chance for her to reach hurricane strength briefly over the open waters of the Atlantic.

8-2-2014 10-56-51 AM

Bertha Is Born

| 10:09 pm July 31, 2014

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The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Tropical Storm Bertha since showers and storms are building rapidly around the center and the plane encountered tropical storm force winds.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…12.3N 55.5W
ABOUT 275 MI…445 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 385 MI…620 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES

Tropical storm warnings and watches have been issued for parts of the Lesser Antilles.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

Here is the forecast track and cone of uncertainty:

Bertha 030122W_sm