Category: Tropical

TD 4 Becomes Danielle

| June 20, 2016 @ 6:47 am

In the process of putting together the Weather Xtreme Video, NHC has upgraded TD 4 to Tropical Storm Danielle. Danielle will be moving slowly into the east coast of Mexico during the day today producing heavy rainfall in the 6 to 10 inch range along with gusty wind. The advisory on Danielle is produced below.

-Brian-

114022W5_NL_sm


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042016
700 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...
...DANIELLE SPREADING RAINS ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 96.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 96.0 West.  Danielle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next day or so.  On
the forecast track, the center of Danielle is expected to move
inland over eastern Mexico later today or tonight.

Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening
is forecast before Danielle makes landfall in Mexico later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Danielle is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of
Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and
northern Puebla.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within portions of the warning area later this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

TD 4 Comes Alive

| June 19, 2016 @ 4:04 pm

The National Hurricane Cetner (NHC) has issued the first advisory on the newly formed Tropical Depression 4 in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico. Here is the text of that advisory and the latest track of the system. NHC forecasters do expect it to become a tropical storm tonight or early Monday. If it does, it will have the name Danielle.

-Brian-

205659W_sm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042016
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE STATE OF
VERACRUZ MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 94.7W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 94.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and
this motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next day or two.  On the forecast track, the center of
the depression is expected to move inland over eastern Mexico on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is expected, and the depression is
forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or early Monday.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of
Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and
northern Puebla.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area Monday morning, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown

TD4 Soon?

| June 19, 2016 @ 10:08 am

Invest 94L over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico may well already be a tropical depression.

94L vis-animated

Air Force Reconnaissance will investigate the system this afternoon.

Wind shear is fairly light over the system and thunderstorms continue to concentrate near the center.

It will continue moving west northwest and will reach the Mexican Coast late tonight or tomorrow morning.

There is a small chance it could become a tropical storm before landfall. It is does, it will be named Danielle.

2016-06-19_10-07-32

TROPICAL MISCHIEF TO BEGIN JULY?
An interesting feature has appeared on recent GFS output. A tropical depression forms north of the Yucatan on July 1 and moves slowly north northwest, arriving on the northern Gulf Coast somewhere between Louisiana and Northwest Florida as a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane on July 3rd. It will be something to watch.

We Have Tropical Storm Colin

| June 5, 2016 @ 5:33 pm

2016-06-05_17-32-53

Reports from the Air Force plan have found surface winds of tropical storm force (34 knots) and Tropical Depression three has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Colin.

The highest winds are well to the northeast of the center in our still disorganized system.

TROPICAL STORM COLIN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

…DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM…

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Tropical Depression Three is now a tropical storm
with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 430 PM CDT…2130 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…23.3N 87.9W
ABOUT 465 MI…750 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 475 MI…765 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

TD#3 Remains Disorganized

| June 5, 2016 @ 4:02 pm

td 3205438W5_NL_sm

An Air Force Reserve WX-130 is flying a reconnaissance mission in Tropical Depression Number 3 over the southern Gulf of Mexico. They are not finding a very organized system at this time. It appears to have an elongated center north of the Yucatan Peninsula. The plane found maximum flight level winds of around 30-35 knots in its northwest semicircle. The plane is currently flying northward through the eastern semicircle. We will continue to monitor the reports from the crew.

The GFDL model organizes the storm slowly overnight before significant intensification occurs tomorrow afternoon as the center nears the coast of the Florida Big Bend. It projects a central pressure of 999 mb and top winds of about 60 mph at landfall near Cross City FL.

The HRWF is much weaker with the system.

The European brings it ashore near midnight tomorrow night just west of Cross City with a small area of tropical storm force winds from Tampa up to the Florida Big Bend area.

3-4 inches of rainfall will be common along with winds of 50 mph. Tornadoes will also be a threat.

The system will cross northern Florida and southeastern Georgia before emerging back over the Atlantic. It will intensify briefly again before becoming a post tropical storm.

ALABAMA UPDATE 4 PM
The cold front extends from near the Northwest Corner of Alabama southwestern across north Central Mississippi back to near Natchez this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms continue across North and North Central Alabama at this hour. The strongest storms are in the Huntsville and Decatur area with others across parts of Marshall, Cullman back into northern Walker County. In Mississippi, strong storms are near I-55 north of Jackson.

Storms across Alabama will produce heavy rain, gusty winds and dangerous lightning into this evening. They should weaken after sunset, but here will remain a chance of showers through the overnight and into tomorrow morning.

TD #3 Has Formed

| June 5, 2016 @ 10:23 am
This graphic shows the forecast track and expected swath of tropical storm force winds from TD#3 (Colin)

This graphic shows the forecast track and expected swath of tropical storm force winds from TD#3 (Colin)

The system in the Gulf of Mexico has developed enough to be designated tropical depression number three with top winds of 35 mph.

It is located on the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and is moving north at 8 mph.

It should become Tropical Storm Colin later today. It won’t become a hurricane, and should max out with top winds of 50 mph late tomorrow. It will make landfall in the Florida Big Bend area, somewhere between Port St. Joe and Cross City, Florida late tomorrow night.

Areas from Apalachicola to Tampa could experience tropical storm force wind conditions (39 mph or greater). The gradient will tighten across the northern Gulf of Mexico, and winds will pick up along the beaches tomorrow into early Tuesday. Waves will increase to 4-6 feet along the coast and the rip current threat is expected to be high along the beautiful beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida.

Rain and storms will be a common feature along the beach of Alabama and Northwest Florida today through tomorrow night, with improving weather by late Tuesday.

The system will cross northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and southern South Carolina, passing back out to sea near Charleston and then racing off to the northeast as a post tropical storm.

James has more thoughts in an excellent post he made this morning. Scroll down to read that.

Concerning The Gulf Tropical Low

| June 5, 2016 @ 7:12 am

A few quick notes to answer your questions about the tropical system that will develop in the Gulf of Mexico tonight/tomorrow…

LATE UPDATE: This system is now Tropical Depression Three.

*The rain across Alabama today doesn’t have anything to do with it; it is related to an upper trough/cold front combination. Additional rain amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch are likely today.

*The tropical low in the Gulf of Mexico will move into the northern part of the Florida Peninsula late tomorrow night. Confidence is high.

aal93_2016060506_track_early

gfs_ptype_slp_florida_9

*This won’t become a dangerous hurricane. It will be a tropical depression, or perhaps a tropical storm (it would get the name Colin). But, one way or another, the main impact is the same… potential for heavy rain across the Florida Peninsula. An isolated tornado is possible as well over North Florida tomorrow and tomorrow night, where a “marginal risk” of severe weather is defined.

FL_swody2

*Some of the outer bands will bring lots of rain to the far southeast tip of Alabama around Dothan, but most of our state won’t be directly impacted. In fact, dry air works into North Alabama tomorrow from the north.

*The tropical system won’t directly impact Gulf Shores or the Alabama coast, but dangerous rip tides are likely tomorrow and Tuesday. Some rain is possible tomorrow and tomorrow night for Fort Walton Beach, Destin, and Panama City, but the heaviest rain from the tropical low will be east of there.

hires_ref_florida_36

wpc_total_precip_florida_20-2

*The tropical low will move east of Florida during the day Tuesday, and the rest of the week looks great for the Southeast U.S. with lots of sun and only isolated showers or storms.

National media hype will probably tell you there are “millions in the path” of a “monster storm” that is “unprecedented”. The truth is that early season systems like this are common, and while the heavy rain and rip tide potential is very real and something that needs to be understood, it isn’t a “monster storm”.

See detailed beach forecasts for the Central Gulf anytime right here.

Update on Potential in Tropics

| June 4, 2016 @ 12:14 pm

Here is a quick check on the western Caribbean Sea. The satellite image late this morning continued to show an are of lower pressure with numerous showers and thunderstorms in a fairly large area approaching the Yucatan Peninsula.

vis0-lalo-4

The latest computer model runs show similar patterns for the developing storm system, but there are some slightly larger differences in this latest run.

The ECMWF continued to be deeper with the developing storm taking it down to 1001 millibars at 00Z on June 7th. The European was also further north than it has been in some of the recent runs taking the center of the storm very close to Apalachicola, FL, before moving it across North Florida.

ecmwf_slp_precip_gulf_13-2

The GFS has continued to be consistent on its solution with a track a little south of the European model with a likely track across the northern portion of the Florida Peninsula roughly from north of Tampa to Jacksonville. The GFS was also lower on the forecast pressure by about 3 millibars at 00Z on June 7th.

gfs_ptype_slp_gulf_11-2

There will be more to come on the development of this tropical system as we continue to monitor how it evolves.

-Brian-

PS I noted that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a Tropical Weather Outlook just shortly after I made this post in which they put the chances of formation through 48 hours at 70 percent and chances of formation through 5 days at 80 percent.

Tropical Mischief Coming?

| June 3, 2016 @ 1:23 pm

As James has been noting in the Weather Xtreme Video, there is some tropical mischief brewing in the western sections of the Caribbean Sea that may become our next tropical system. Understand that this is early, but the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is talking about it, and the major global models have been suggesting this for the last couple of days. So I thought it might be worth a little analysis here.

First, let’s start with the actual situation. NHC has noted a large area of showers and thunderstorms continued over the western Caribbean Sea. This system was moving west-northwestward toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and a low pressure area is expected to form over the Yucatan or the adjacent waters over the weekend. After that, this low could develop into a tropical cyclone as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula early next week (Monday-Tuesday time frame). Regardless of storm development, locally heavy rains and flooding are going to be possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, and the Florida Peninsula during the next several days. NHC puts the chance of formation through the next 5 days at 60 percent. Here is the latest satellite image of the disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms in the western Caribbean.

vis-l-3

Looking at the latest model runs, that means the 00Z run from the ECMWF and the 12Z run from the GFS, the two models are actually in fairly close agreement on what the future holds. If both of these models are right, then we can expect to see a tropical storm form over the weekend and move fairly rapidly across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Monday and across the northern half of the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday. Here is a comparison of the two models at the same time, 00Z June 6th in the first panel, and 12Z June 7th in the second panel.

20160606-00Z-Gulf

20160607-12Z-Gulf

You can click on either of these panels for larger graphics.

As you can see upon close examination, they are very close. Sure, there are some minor differences, but they are minor. For example, the GFS is slightly larger with the 1004 millibar circle than the ECMWF in the first set of panels. In the second set of panels, the ECMWF has kept a slightly stronger system, but again relatively minor at only 2 millibars difference. Using an approximately center of the low pressure area reveals a track that is good agreement.

If this system behaves as the models are suggesting, it would be named Colin since we’ve already had Alex (in January) and Bonnie (in late May and early June).

For those that may have vacation plans toward the Gulf Coast or perhaps into the Florida peninsula, there is no reason to consider cancelling your plans. There is every reason to believe that this future system will have little inclement weather impact on the Gulf beaches from Mississippi to Apalachicola. For North Florida all the way south to the Keys, there is likely to be some wind along with heavy rain. But the forward speed of the system should result in only a limited period of really inclement weather for most locations.

Stay with the blog for later updates and information on what this system eventually does. We’ll be keeping our eyes on it.

-Brian-

TD 2 Becomes Bonnie

| May 28, 2016 @ 3:45 pm

The National Hurricane Center has issued an advisory to upgrade Tropical Depression 2 to Tropical Storm Bonnie.

The center of Bonnie was located about 120 miles southeast of Beaufort, SC, with maximum sustained wind of 40 mph. Heavy rain from Bonnie was spreading across the coastal sections of South Carolina. The image below is from the radar at Charleston, SC.

CHS-Bonnie

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the area from Savannah River to Little River Inlet, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located by satellite and NOAA Doppler radars near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 79.4 West. Bonnie was moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion, accompanied by a decrease in forward speed, is expected through this evening and on Sunday as the system nears the coast within the warning area.

Tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, mainly to the northwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure was 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area later tonight or early Sunday.

Bonnie is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with maximum totals of 5 inches from eastern
South Carolina through southeastern North Carolina.

Storm surge inundation of 1 to 2 feet above ground level is possible within the tropical storm warning area during the
next high tide on Sunday morning.

Bonnie is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the southeastern United
States coast through the weekend.

An isolated tornado or two will be possible late tonight and early Sunday over the immediate coastal region from central
South Carolina through southern North Carolina.

-Brian-

203139W_sm