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Summer-Like Weather Continues

| 6:18 am May 27, 2016

HOLIDAY WEEKEND: A rather stagnant weather pattern continues across Alabama, and our weather just won’t change much through the Memorial Day weekend. Partly to mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only isolated showers or storms. The chance of any one spot actually getting wet each day is only 10-20 percent; highest odds will be tomorrow, but most places stay dry. Afternoon highs will remain in the 87 to 90 degree range. We note Birmingham reached 90 degrees officially yesterday for the first time this year.

NEXT WEEK: The weather stays the same through the first half of the week, but the GFS continues to suggest we will see higher rain chances by Thursday and Friday with the approach of an upper trough. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WE NEED RAIN: Today will be the 6th consecutive day without rain for Birmingham, and the total over the last 15 days is only 0.14″.

TROPICS: A sub-tropical storm is expected to form off the South Atlantic coast of the U.S. today or tomorrow; it will head for the coast of the Carolinas where breezy and wet weather is likely.

two_atl_2d0

No direct impact on Alabama or the Gulf Coast.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores through early next week; showers will be very hard, if not impossible to find. Highs will be in the low 80s on the immediate coast, with upper 80s to near 90 degrees inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: Afternoon highs will remain in the 87-90 degree range in Hoover through Sunday… only a few isolated afternoon showers around. Otherwise, mostly sunny days and fair nights… a great weekend for baseball at the Hoover Met. Get information about the big event here.

ON THIS DATE IN 1973: A violent, long track F4 tornado touched down northeast of Demopolis and traveled northeastward. The tornado produced extensive damage that Sunday evening in Greensboro, Brent, Centreville, Montevallo, Columbiana, Wilsonville, Childersburg and many areas in between. The tornado lifted near Mount Cheaha. 72 people were injured and one person was killed in Greensboro. 90% of the town of Brent was destroyed killing 5 people and injuring 56. 216 buildings were destroyed, 570 buildings were damaged, 97 mobile homes were destroyed, and 45 businesses were damaged or destroyed. More than 12,000 acres of timber was destroyed.

The old National Weather Service WSR-57 radar site just west of Brent was destroyed; learn more and see pictures on this great site put together by John Brasher.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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Little Change Through The Weekend

| 3:27 pm May 26, 2016

FEELS LIKE SUMMER: This afternoon temperature has reached 90 degrees officially at Birmingham for the first time this year. Muscle Shoals reports 92….

Temperatures

Nothing on radar, and the sky is mostly sunny. And, like recent days, big storms have formed across the nation’s mid-section.

TOMORROW THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: An upper ridge will mean little change in our weather through Monday. A weakening trough could bring a slightly higher coverage of scattered showers Saturday, but otherwise we expect partly to mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only isolated showers or thunderstorms. Afternoon highs will remain in the 87-90 degree range for most communities.

NEXT WEEK: We will roll with a persistence forecast. The ridge will prevent widespread rain; just the risk of a few isolated afternoon showers or storms each day. Highs remain 87 to 90 degrees with a good supply of sunshine each day. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: NHC now gives a 60 percent chance of tropical storm formation off the South Atlantic coast of the U.S. in coming days. This will probably be more of a hybrid system, or a “sub-tropical” storm. Models bring the system into the coast of South Carolina over the weekend, where breezy and wet weather is likely.

two_atl_2d0

One way or another this system will not impact Alabama or the Gulf Coast directly.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights on the coast from Gulf Shores over to Panama City Beach through Memorial Day. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the low 80s, with upper 80s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: The weather won’t change much in Hoover through the end of the tournament Sunday. Mostly sunny hot afternoons, clear nights, and only isolated showers. Afternoon highs will remain in the 87-90 degree range. Get information about the big event here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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Holiday Thoughts from Satellite Sheldon

| 11:20 am May 26, 2016
Click image to enlarge

Click image to enlarge

In sharp contrast to your weather over the past month (over 7″ of rain for the month here in the DC area vs 1.38″ in Birmingham), we are now feeling the dry weather you have had and the heat (no, not from Congress) with temperatures reaching the 80’s.

And weather systems far far away in an Ocean or two will have a big impact in keep it mostly rain free in Alabama through the holiday weekend and maybe for the next seven days!

The potential bad thing/downside for a pattern like this is we may have to start talking about increased drought conditions and fire potential for for parts of the state if this were to continue through next week.

Hope your holiday weekend is great!

-Sheldon

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Thursday Midday Nowcast for Central Alabama

| 11:13 am May 26, 2016

simuawips

Skies are sunny across much of Central Alabama at this hour, and temperatures are already on their way up to the upper 80s to near 90. No rain on the radar for the state, but plenty of action is happening back to our west. Much of Eastern Texas and up to Central Oklahoma is being affected by more showers and strong thunderstorms. Fortunately at this point, there are no warnings in effect for these storms.

However, that is not the case for extreme Northeastern Kansas and Northwestern Missouri. Several severe thunderstorm warnings are in effect for multiple cells in a line that is slowly pushing to the northeast at 10 MPH. Ping pong ball size hail and winds in excess of 60 MPH are the main threats associated with these cells. Flash flood warnings may be needed with these due to the torrential rainfalls and slow movement.

Another line of strong thunderstorms is pushing across Central Indiana, back to the southwest through the southern tip of Illinois, and the line ends in South/Central Missouri. Dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning and gusty winds are associated with this line. Qualifying for the Freedom 100 Indy Lights Race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway was stopped halfway through due to the approaching line of storms. This line is mainly moving to the east, with the southern sections of the line moving slightly to the southeast.

QUICK LOOK AT TEMPERATURES: Temperatures at this time are already well up in the upper 70s to low 80s. The warm spots in the state are Huntsville and Montgomery both at 83. Here is a list of temperature readings from across the state at this time:

Birmingham 82
Tuscaloosa 80
Muscle Shoals 80
Huntsville 83
Anniston 81
Alexander City 78
Montgomery 83
Dothan 82
Mobile 79

REST OF TODAY: Skies will remain mostly sunny for the remainder of the afternoon hours, with just a very small risk of showers and storms moving through the extreme northern counties of the state. Afternoon highs will be at or near 90.

AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR BIRMINGHAM AREA: Today’s Air Quality Index will be in the CODE YELLOW (moderate) for ozone and particulate matter. Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.

CLIMATOLOGY FOR BIRMINGHAM: The normal high temperature for May 26th in Birmingham is 83, while the normal low is 61. The record high of 97 was reached in 1962. The record low of 41 was set back in 1979.

FRIDAY: Sunny but hazy skies are to be expected tomorrow. An afternoon/evening shower is possible with the rising moisture levels, but any that develop will be widely scattered, and most places will stay dry. Afternoon highs will once again will be at or near 90.

HEADED TO THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only isolated showers from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores through the holiday weekend. Highs in the low 80s on the immediate coast, with upper 80s inland. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab early this morning is 79 degrees. See a very detailed beach forecast here.

THE TROPICS: A disturbance east of the Bahamas has a chance of becoming a hybrid sub-tropical storm over the Memorial Day weekend with potential for some impact on the coast of the Carolinas. If by chance this gets a name, it will be called “Bonnie”. No direct impact one way or another on Alabama or the Gulf Coast.

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: The weather continues to look good for the event going on through Sunday at the Hoover Metropolitan Stadium. Mostly sunny, hot, hazy days and fair nights with only isolated afternoon/evening showers. Highs will remain in the 87 to 90 degree range. Get information about the big event here.

WEATHERBRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists at ABC 33/40. You can find it here.

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Summer Pattern Remains In Place

| 5:15 am May 26, 2016

HOT AFTERNOONS: Official highs across Alabama yesterday included 90 at Huntsville, 89 at Birmingham and Calera, and 88 at Tuscaloosa and Anniston.

We project afternoon highs back in the 87 to 90 degree range today and tomorrow with hazy sunshine. And, with rising moisture levels, we can’t rule out an afternoon/evening shower, but they will be widely scattered, and most places will stay dry. The big storms will remain across the nation’s heartland from Texas up through the Great Plains.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: The overall weather just won’t change much. If anything, there could be a slight increase in the coverage of showers and storms Saturday with a weakening trough approaching from the west, but still no expectation of widespread rain. A few isolated showers or storms are possible Sunday and Monday, but most places will be dry. Afternoon highs will hold in the 85-90 degree range with a decent amount of sunshine daily.

NEXT WEEK: No real change through the week; very warm, humid days with just isolated showers. We could see an increase in the number of showers and storms by Friday and Saturday (June 3-4) with an upper trough setting up to the west; see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: A disturbance east of the Bahamas has a chance of becoming a hybrid sub-tropical storm over the Memorial Day weekend with potential for some impact on the coast of the Carolinas.

aal91_2016052600_track_early

If by chance this gets a name, it will be called “Bonnie”. No direct impact one way or another on Alabama or the Gulf Coast.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only isolated showers from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores through the holiday weekend. Highs in the low 80s on the immediate coast, with upper 80s inland. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab early this morning is 79 degrees. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: The weather continues to look good for the event going on through Sunday at the Hoover Metropolitan Stadium. Mostly sunny, hot, hazy days and fair nights with only isolated afternoon/evening showers. Highs will remain in the 87 to 90 degree range. Get information about the big event here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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Summer Preview Continues Through The Weekend

| 3:19 pm May 25, 2016

RADAR CHECK: At mid-afternoon we note strong storms near Memphis, and about 40 miles west of the northwest corner of Alabama…

Screen Shot 2016-05-25 at 3.10.56 PM

No rain is in progress across Alabama, and those showers and storms over Tennessee aren’t expected to impact our state. Temperatures are mostly in the upper 80s this afternoon with hazy sunshine.

REST OF THE WEEK: Not much change tomorrow and Friday; partly to mostly sunny days, fair nights, with only a very small risk of an afternoon shower over the far northern counties. Highs 87 to 90 degrees, about five to eight degrees above average for late May.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: It’s pretty much a persistence forecast. Partly sunny, muggy days with only isolated afternoon showers, and highs in that 87 to 90 degree range. All of the organized rain/storms areas will remain to the north and west of Alabama thanks to an upper ridge overhead.

Some chance we could see a little higher coverage of showers toward the end of next week…see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: A disturbance east of the Bahamas has a chance of becoming a hybrid, sub-tropical storm in a few days. It will drift northwest toward the South Carolina coast; if by chance this does develop it won’t impact Alabama or the Gulf Coast directly.

aal91_2016052512_track_gfs

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights on the Gulf Coast from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores through Memorial Day. Highs on the immediate coast in the low 80s, with upper 80s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: It continues through Sunday at the Hoover Metropolitan Stadium; the weather looks fantastic with mostly sunny days and fair nights. We will mention a small risk of an afternoon shower or storm Saturday and Sunday, but rain should pose no big issues. Highs stay in the 87-90 degree range. Get information about the big event here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
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I enjoyed speaking to the Calhoun County master gardeners today in Anniston… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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Wednesday Midday Nowcast for Central Alabama

| 11:27 am May 25, 2016

simuawips

Most of Central Alabama at this hour is under mostly clear skies, but a few sections in the area have some clouds. Good news with the clouds that are currently over parts of the area, there is no rain involved with these. We note back to our northwest over Northwestern and Northeastern parts of Arkansas that a line of storms is moving southeastward. No warnings are associated with these at this time, but there is a possibility that the southern end of this feature could clip parts of North Alabama later today.

QUICK LOOK AT TEMPERATURES: A mix of 70s and 80s are being reported across Central Alabama at this time. The warm spot in the state being Montgomery at 83. Here is a list of temperature readings from across the state at this time:

Birmingham 81
Tuscaloosa 79
Muscle Shoals 82
Huntsville 79
Anniston 78
Alexander City 78
Montgomery 83
Dothan 80
Mobile 79

HRRR Model Run valid until midnight tonight.

HRRR Model Run valid until midnight tonight.

REST OF TODAY: Skies should remain mostly clear for most of the area, but some clouds will build during the afternoon hours. According to the latest HRRR model run, there is a chance that the southern end of a MCS that will be moving through Tennessee this afternoon could move through the northwestern counties of the state from the 4PM to 8PM time frame, but totally dissipates by the time it reaches the I-65 corridor. We’ll note that the NAM4k is not even showing it. I’ll mention a small risk of showers and storms for those counties. There is no severe threat with these, and there is no risk outlined by the SPC. Other than that, the rest of Central Alabama will remain dry. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 80s to right at 90. Some places might actually reach 91 or 92 today.

AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR BIRMINGHAM AREA: Today’s Air Quality Index will be in the CODE YELLOW (moderate) for ozone and particulate matter. Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.

CLIMATOLOGY FOR BIRMINGHAM: The normal high temperature for May 25th in Birmingham is 83, while the normal low is 60. The record high of 95 was reached in 1962. The record low of 45 was set back in 1979.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny skies tomorrow, and the dewpoints and humidity levels are on the rise. Afternoon highs for most communities will be at close to 90 degrees.

HEADED TO THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights through Memorial Day from Gulf Shores east to Panama City Beach. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the low 80s, with upper 80s inland. See a very detailed beach forecast here.

TROPICAL MISCHIEF?: Hurricane season in the Atlantic basin officially begins one week from today (also the beginning of meteorological summer), but we are watching a disturbance east of the Bahamas. There is a chance this could become a hybrid type tropical low in coming days as it drifts toward the South Atlantic coast of the U.S. If this happens to develop, it should have no direct impact on Alabama or the Gulf Coast.

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: It continues through Sunday at the Hoover Metropolitan Stadium; the weather looks fantastic with mostly sunny days and fair nights. We will mention a small risk of an afternoon shower or storm Saturday and Sunday, but rain should pose no big issue. The weather will heat up with highs in the 87-90 degree range most afternoons. Get information about the big event here.

WEATHERBRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists at ABC 33/40. You can find it here.

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Summer-Like Weather Through Memorial Day

| 6:20 am May 25, 2016

DRY PATTERN CONTINUES: The overall weather pattern won’t change much; most of the big rain/storm action will remain in the zone from Texas up through the Great Plains and into the Upper Midwest in coming days. Around here, today will be another sunny and warm day with a high between 87 and 90 degrees this afternoon…. about five to eight degrees above average for late May in Alabama.

TOMORROW THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND: Humidity levels will slowly rise, and we could see a few afternoon showers or storms by Friday and the weekend, but they will be few and far between, and most communities will stay dry. Temperatures will remain above average with highs in the 87 to 90 degree range. Pretty much a persistence forecast thanks to upper ridging across the region.

TROPICS: Hurricane season in the Atlantic basin officially begins one week from today (also the beginning of meteorological summer), but we are watching a disturbance east of the Bahamas. There is a chance this could become a hybrid type tropical low in coming days as it drifts toward the South Atlantic coast of the U.S. If this happens to develop, it should have no direct impact on Alabama or the Gulf Coast.

two_atl_5d0

NEXT WEEK: Global models hint there could be a gradual increase in the chance of showers toward the end of next week; see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights through Memorial Day from Gulf Shores east to Panama City Beach. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the low 80s, with upper 80s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: It continues through Sunday at the Hoover Metropolitan Stadium; the weather looks fantastic with mostly sunny days and fair nights. We will mention a small risk of an afternoon shower or storm Saturday and Sunday, but rain should pose no big issue. The weather will heat up with highs in the 87-90 degree range most afternoons. Get information about the big event here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
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I am speaking to Calhoun County Master Gardners today in Anniston… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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Mostly Dry Through Memorial Day

| 3:30 pm May 24, 2016

FLIRTING WITH 90: An upper ridge will keep our weather pretty stagnant through the upcoming holiday weekend with little day to day change. Most of the big storms will remain well to the west of our state, across Texas, the Great Plains, and the Upper Midwest.

Expect the warmest weather so far this year, with afternoon highs in the 87 to 90 degree range on a daily basis. These values are about 5-8 degrees above average for late May in Alabama.

Humidity levels will slowly rise in coming days, and we could see a few isolated afternoon showers or storms by Friday and the weekend, but the chance of any one community seeing rain will be generally 20 percent or less.

And, even into early next week the pattern just doesn’t seem to change. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

KBHM_2016052412_min_max_16

TROPICS: A sub-tropical storm could form this weekend off the South Atlantic coast of the U.S… if this happens we expect no direct impact on Alabama.

wjxtBlake_2016-May-24

AT THE BEACH: This pattern will bring some perfect weather conditions to the Gulf Coast from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores through the Memorial Day weekend. Mostly sunny days, fair nights. Highs in the low 80s on the immediate coast, with upper 80s inland.

Sunrise photo below is from Orange beach this morning… taken by @cahabadave

CahabaDave_2016-May-24 1

See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: It is starting this afternoon at the Hoover Metropolitan Stadium; the weather looks fantastic with mostly sunny days and fair nights through at least Friday. We will mention a small risk of an afternoon shower or storm Saturday and Sunday, but rain should pose no big issues. The weather will heat up with highs in the 87-90 degree range most afternoons. Get information about the big event here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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Tuesday Midday Nowcast for Central Alabama

| 11:47 am May 24, 2016

simuawips

Mostly sunny skies across Central Alabama at this hour, with no rain on radar. It will stay that way for the rest of today for the area. The main action in the lower 48 states right now is located in West/Central Missouri and extreme Northeastern Arkansas. These slow moving storm are currently below severe limits, but is a high output of lightning and heavy rain associated with these storms. They are pushing to the east, but will be no threat to Alabama’s weather today.

QUICK LOOK AT TEMPERATURES: Almost every reporting station in Central Alabama at this time are up into the 80s, with the warm spot in the state being Montgomery at 85. Here is a list of temperature readings from across the state at this time:

Birmingham 82
Tuscaloosa 82
Muscle Shoals 83
Huntsville 82
Anniston 80
Alexander City 78
Montgomery 85
Dothan 83
Mobile 81

REST OF TODAY: Mostly sunny skies with afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 80s for most communities in Central Alabama. A few clouds may move across the area later this afternoon and evening. Should still feel fairly comfortable with dew points in the 50s, and that will keep the humidity levels down.

AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR BIRMINGHAM AREA: Today’s Air Quality Index will be in the CODE ORANGE (unhealthy for sensitive groups) for ozone. The following groups should limit prolonged outdoor exertion:
• People with lung or heart disease
• Children and older adults
• People who are active outdoors

CLIMATOLOGY FOR BIRMINGHAM: The normal high temperature for May 24th in Birmingham is 83, while the normal low is 60. The record high of 96 was reached in 1996. The record low of 46 was set back in 1917.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny skies tomorrow, but it will not feel as pleasant as it has due to a rise in dewpoints/humidity levels. Afternoon highs will also be on the rise, as most communities will be close to, or slightly over, 90 degrees.

HEADED TO THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights through the Memorial Day weekend from Gulf Shores over to Panama City Beach. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the low 80s, with upper 80s inland. Sea water temperatures are generally between 77 and 81 degrees. See a very detailed beach forecast here.

TROPICAL MISCHIEF?: Global models are hinting at a hybrid low forming near the South Atlantic coast late this weekend. There is some chance it could be a “sub-tropical storm”. One way or another it won’t directly impact Alabama weather.

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: It begins today at the Hoover Metropolitan Stadium; the weather looks fantastic with mostly sunny days and fair nights through Friday. We will mention a small risk of an afternoon shower or storm Saturday and Sunday, but rain should pose no big issues. The weather will heat up with highs in the 87-90 degree range most afternoons. Get information about the big event here.

WEATHERBRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists at ABC 33/40. You can find it here.

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