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Mostly Dry Through Memorial Day

| 3:30 pm May 24, 2016

FLIRTING WITH 90: An upper ridge will keep our weather pretty stagnant through the upcoming holiday weekend with little day to day change. Most of the big storms will remain well to the west of our state, across Texas, the Great Plains, and the Upper Midwest.

Expect the warmest weather so far this year, with afternoon highs in the 87 to 90 degree range on a daily basis. These values are about 5-8 degrees above average for late May in Alabama.

Humidity levels will slowly rise in coming days, and we could see a few isolated afternoon showers or storms by Friday and the weekend, but the chance of any one community seeing rain will be generally 20 percent or less.

And, even into early next week the pattern just doesn’t seem to change. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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TROPICS: A sub-tropical storm could form this weekend off the South Atlantic coast of the U.S… if this happens we expect no direct impact on Alabama.

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AT THE BEACH: This pattern will bring some perfect weather conditions to the Gulf Coast from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores through the Memorial Day weekend. Mostly sunny days, fair nights. Highs in the low 80s on the immediate coast, with upper 80s inland.

Sunrise photo below is from Orange beach this morning… taken by @cahabadave

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See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: It is starting this afternoon at the Hoover Metropolitan Stadium; the weather looks fantastic with mostly sunny days and fair nights through at least Friday. We will mention a small risk of an afternoon shower or storm Saturday and Sunday, but rain should pose no big issues. The weather will heat up with highs in the 87-90 degree range most afternoons. Get information about the big event here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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Tuesday Midday Nowcast for Central Alabama

| 11:47 am May 24, 2016

simuawips

Mostly sunny skies across Central Alabama at this hour, with no rain on radar. It will stay that way for the rest of today for the area. The main action in the lower 48 states right now is located in West/Central Missouri and extreme Northeastern Arkansas. These slow moving storm are currently below severe limits, but is a high output of lightning and heavy rain associated with these storms. They are pushing to the east, but will be no threat to Alabama’s weather today.

QUICK LOOK AT TEMPERATURES: Almost every reporting station in Central Alabama at this time are up into the 80s, with the warm spot in the state being Montgomery at 85. Here is a list of temperature readings from across the state at this time:

Birmingham 82
Tuscaloosa 82
Muscle Shoals 83
Huntsville 82
Anniston 80
Alexander City 78
Montgomery 85
Dothan 83
Mobile 81

REST OF TODAY: Mostly sunny skies with afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 80s for most communities in Central Alabama. A few clouds may move across the area later this afternoon and evening. Should still feel fairly comfortable with dew points in the 50s, and that will keep the humidity levels down.

AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR BIRMINGHAM AREA: Today’s Air Quality Index will be in the CODE ORANGE (unhealthy for sensitive groups) for ozone. The following groups should limit prolonged outdoor exertion:
• People with lung or heart disease
• Children and older adults
• People who are active outdoors

CLIMATOLOGY FOR BIRMINGHAM: The normal high temperature for May 24th in Birmingham is 83, while the normal low is 60. The record high of 96 was reached in 1996. The record low of 46 was set back in 1917.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny skies tomorrow, but it will not feel as pleasant as it has due to a rise in dewpoints/humidity levels. Afternoon highs will also be on the rise, as most communities will be close to, or slightly over, 90 degrees.

HEADED TO THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights through the Memorial Day weekend from Gulf Shores over to Panama City Beach. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the low 80s, with upper 80s inland. Sea water temperatures are generally between 77 and 81 degrees. See a very detailed beach forecast here.

TROPICAL MISCHIEF?: Global models are hinting at a hybrid low forming near the South Atlantic coast late this weekend. There is some chance it could be a “sub-tropical storm”. One way or another it won’t directly impact Alabama weather.

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: It begins today at the Hoover Metropolitan Stadium; the weather looks fantastic with mostly sunny days and fair nights through Friday. We will mention a small risk of an afternoon shower or storm Saturday and Sunday, but rain should pose no big issues. The weather will heat up with highs in the 87-90 degree range most afternoons. Get information about the big event here.

WEATHERBRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists at ABC 33/40. You can find it here.

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Summer Preview; Dry Weather Continues

| 6:22 am May 24, 2016

HEATING UP: With a mostly sunny sky today, we project a high between 86 and 89 degrees for most Alabama communities today; the average high for May 24 (for Birmingham) is 83. Dewpoints will hold in the 50s today, so the humidity won’t be too bad.

REST OF THE WEEK: We are forecasting highs pretty close to 90 degrees tomorrow through Friday with a good supply of sunshine each day. Humidity levels will creep up, so nights won’t be quite as pleasant. And, I guess we could mention a slight risk of a shower Friday afternoon as the air will be a tad more unstable, but the risk for any one spot seeing rain is so small I don’t think it is worth the mention for now.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: Not much change. An upper ridge will keep Alabama mostly dry with only isolated afternoon showers. The chance of any community seeing a shower is only in the 10-20 percent range, and daily highs will be in the 86-90 degree range.

Birmingham has measured only 0.12″ of rain since May 13, and soil moisture will continue to decrease as we get into early June. Unfortunately there is nothing now to suggest a big, widespread rain event over the next 10 days.

HURRICANE SEASON: It kicks off next Wednesday, June 1. Keep in mind we had a rare January tropical system earlier this year, Hurricane Alex, so the first named storm this summer will be “Bonnie”. When Alex became a hurricane January 14, it marked only the second recorded hurricane formation in January, with the other being Hurricane One in 1938.

We note global models continue to hint at a hybrid low forming near the South Atlantic coast late this weekend; some chance it could be a “sub-tropical storm”. One way or another it won’t directly impact Alabama weather. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights through the Memorial Day weekend from Gulf Shores over to Panama City Beach. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the low 80s, with upper 80s inland. Sea water temperatures are generally between 77 and 81 degrees. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: It begins today at the Hoover Metropolitan Stadium; the weather looks fantastic with mostly sunny days and fair nights through Friday. We will mention a small risk of an afternoon shower or storm Saturday and Sunday, but rain should pose no big issues. The weather will heat up with highs in the 87-90 degree range most afternoons. Get information about the big event here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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WeatherBrains 540: Your Pop Filter is the Same Size as Mine

| 5:15 am May 24, 2016

WeatherBrains Episode 540 is now online (May 23, 2016). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain #1 is Jane Cage, the former Chairman of the Joplin Citizens Advisory Recovery Team and head of the Joplin Proud Committee. Jane Cage, welcome to WeatherBrains.

And tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain #2 is a broadcast journalist who is writing a book on the Joplin tornado and how it relates to the larger picture of disaster recovery. Likes loitering, trading insults with his girlfriend, and frozen yogurt. Steve Holmes, welcome to WeatherBrains.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 102 at Persimmon Gap, TX, and 21 at Walden, CO, & Bondurant, WY
  • Nearly a week of severe weather for central US
  • Warm across much of the country
  • Active weather keeps Rick Smith busy in Oklahoma
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

Our email bag officer is continuing to handle the incoming messages from our listeners.

From The Weather Center:

WeatherBrains 101: It’s only a little more than a week to the start of the 2016 hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin. So many weather enthusiasts will be watching the official National Hurricane Center forecasts for any storms that form. And that forecast has a cone that widens in time. So what is that cone and what does it mean?

Listener SurveyListener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

Web Sites from Episode 540:

Joplin Proud

Telestar by the Tornados (found by WeatherBrains listener Scott)

Apical Ballooning Syndrome

To subscribe to the new SkyWritings, an email newsletter from the WeatherBrains gang, click HERE.

Picks of the Week:

Jane Cage – Tuscaloosa, AL, Recovery

Steve Holmes – Fatal tornado in India

Nate Johnson – Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic

Bill Murray – Center for Satellite Application and Research

Brian Peters – new Joint Typhoon Warning Center page

Kevin Selle – No Pick

James Spann – Tornado warning for Val Verde

Aubrey Urbanowicz – Close and far Martian oppositions

SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

Audible.com graphic

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Summer Preview This Week

| 3:19 pm May 23, 2016

HEATING UP: Temperatures are mostly in the mid 80s across Alabama this afternoon, but dewpoints are in the 40s, so the warmth is pretty comfortable. The sky is sunny.

REST OF THE WEEK: Active weather stays well to the west of Alabama; around here we expect mostly sunny days and fair nights with rising afternoon temperatures and humidity levels. We reach the upper 80s tomorrow, and the high will be very close to 90 degrees Wednesday through Friday. There could be sufficient moisture and instability for a few isolated afternoon showers Thursday and Friday, but the chance of any one spot seeing rain is very low.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: Not much change. Partly sunny days, fair nights, highs between 87 and 90. A afternoon shower or storm is possible, but they will be very widely separated and most communities will stay dry Saturday through Monday.

We do note global models show some type of hybrid low just off the South Atlantic coast this weekend; some chance it becomes a “sub-tropical storm”. But, no impact on Alabama is expected one way or another. Hurricane season (for the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico) begins next Wednesday, June 1.

See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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AT THE BEACH: Sunny days, clear nights through the Memorial Day weekend from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores. Highs in the low 80s on the immediate coast; 87-90 degrees inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: It begins tomorrow at the Hoover Metropolitan Stadium; the weather looks fantastic with mostly sunny days and fair nights through at least Friday. We will mention a small risk of an afternoon shower or storm Saturday and Sunday, but rain should pose no big issues. The weather will heat up with highs in the 87-90 degree range most afternoons. Get information about the big event here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I had a great time today visiting with the 3rd graders at Riverchase Elementary… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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Monday Midday Nowcast for Central Alabama

| 11:47 am May 23, 2016

simuawips

After a nice cool morning today in Central Alabama, a great day is in store. Temperatures started off in the low 50s for most spots in the area, but a few upper 40s were reported. Its probably going to be a while, maybe late September, before we will see temperatures this low again. Get ready, as summer is quickly approaching, and we’ll get an early taste of it this week as temperatures will be above normal for this time of year.

QUICK LOOK AT TEMPERATURES: Most communities are into the upper 70s and low 80s, with the warm spot in the state being Huntsville at 82. Here is a list of temperature readings from across the state at this time:

Birmingham 78
Tuscaloosa 80
Muscle Shoals 79
Huntsville 82
Anniston 78
Alexander City 77
Montgomery 81
Dothan 81
Mobile 80

Latest Model Run With Today's Maximum Temperatures

Latest Model Run With Today’s Maximum Temperatures

REST OF TODAY: A beautiful and dry day is expected for the remainder of today. A few clouds may move across the area later this afternoon and evening. Lower dewpoint/humidity will make it feel pretty comfortable, and with a nice northwesterly wind averaging 5 to 10 MPH. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s for most communities in Central Alabama.

CLIMATOLOGY FOR BIRMINGHAM: The normal high temperature for May 23rd in Birmingham is 83, while the normal low is 60. The record high of 95 was reached in 1996. The record low of 47 was set back in 1954.

TUESDAY: Tomorrow will still feel fairly comfortable, as dewpoints and humidity levels will remain lower. Skies will be mostly sunny, and afternoon temperatures will reach the upper 80s. Early morning lows will be in the mid to upper 50s.

HEADED TO THE BEACH: Sunny days, clear nights through the Memorial Day weekend from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores. Highs in the low 80s on the immediate coast; 87-90 degrees inland. Sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 78 degrees. See a very detailed beach forecast here.

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: It begins tomorrow at the Hoover Metropolitan Stadium; the weather looks fantastic with mostly sunny days and fair nights through at least Friday. We will mention a small risk of an afternoon shower or storm Saturday and Sunday, but rain should pose no big issues. The weather will heat up with highs in the 87-90 degree range most afternoons. Get information about the big event here.

WEATHERBRAINS: This week, we were talking rip currents with Jeff Medlen from the NWS in Mobile. Did you know that rip currents are typically the deadliest weather phenomenon in their County Warning Area? Learn more about the science behind rip currents on the weekly netcast that’s all about weather at www.WeatherBrains.com. You can also subscribe on iTunes. You can watch the show live at http://live.bigbrainsmedia.com/. You can also see the show on the James Spann 24×7 weather channel on cable or satellite or directly over the air on the dot 2 feed.

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Warmest Weather So Far This Year Ahead

| 6:21 am May 23, 2016

COOL MORNING: Feels good across the great state of Alabama early this morning… come of the coolest temperatures include 46 at Fort Payne, 47 at Cullman and Black Creek (just northeast of Gadsden), 48 at Haleyville, and 49 at Concord. For many places, next time we see 40s could be in late September.

DRY DAYS: Today will be sunny with a big warm-up; we wind up in the mid 80s this afternoon. Sunny weather continues tomorrow with a high in the upper 80s. Dewpoints/humidity values will remain fairly low both days.

Then, later in the week, heat and humidity levels will rise. We project a high very close to 90 degrees each afternoon Wednesday through Friday, and the higher dewpoints will sure make it feel like summer. An upper ridge will keep it dry.

Birmingham’s rain total for the month of May is only 1.38″, so we could use a good rain event, but it won’t happen this week.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: Not much change; mostly dry and hot weather is the story Saturday through Monday, with partly sunny days and fair nights. We will mention the risk of “widely scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms” Sunday and Monday, but the chance of any one spot getting wet remains pretty small.

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AT THE BEACH: Sunny days, clear nights through the Memorial Day weekend from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores. Highs in the low 80s on the immediate coast; 87-90 degrees inland. Sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 78 degrees. Photo below was taken late yesterday at Panama City Beach from Trent Penny.

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See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: It begins tomorrow at the Hoover Metropolitan Stadium; the weather looks fantastic with mostly sunny days and fair nights through at least Friday. We will mention a small risk of an afternoon shower or storm Saturday and Sunday, but rain should pose no big issues. The weather will heat up with highs in the 87-90 degree range most afternoons. Get information about the big event here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I will do my last weather program for the 2015-16 school year today at Riverchase Elementary School… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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A Border to Border Bridge of Watches

| 8:32 pm May 22, 2016

An unusual sight this evening across the middle of the country tonight.

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You could literally walk from Terrell County, Texas, on the Mexican border, all the way to the Canadian border, and be in a severe weather watch the entire way.

Tornado warnings are in effect in Kansas and Texas as well. There have been 28 tornado reports so far, all the way from South Dakota to Texas.

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A large and extremely dangerous tornado is on the ground northwest of Garden City, Kansas right now. It is reported to be nearly stationary.

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Warmest Week of the Year Ahead

| 12:15 pm May 22, 2016

Central Alabama will get a preview of summer in the week ahead as high pressure builds over the Southeast, allowing things to heat up.

Today’s highs in the upper 70s to near 80F will be a distant memory by Tuesday, when we are more likely to see readings that begin with 9 than 7.

Wednesday expected high temperatures

Wednesday expected high temperatures

But for today: perfection, with highs just shy of 80F in most spots under a mostly cloudless sky. Humidities will be low, with dewpoints in the lower 50s. There will be a light northerly wind that will make it feel just perfect.

Be sure to have the sunscreen handy today as you head out for the final round of the Regions Classic. Get your tickets here.

And get ready for a great week of baseball at the Hoover Met starting Tuesday. The weather will be nearly perfect. It will feel like summer all week with highs in the middle and upper 80s, and even a few 90 degree readings Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. A few widely scattered thunderstorms could show up by Wednesday afternoon, but rain chances will remain low through the Championship Game on Sunday. Get your tickets here.

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A Nice Sunday but Warmer Weather Ahead

| 7:11 am May 22, 2016

The day starting off on a pleasant note with morning lows dipping into the upper 50s. Thanks to high pressure centered off to our northwest, we will see some slightly drier air settle into the state on northerly wind flow. Look for highs around the 80-degree mark, but it will feel even nicer with that drier air.

For any beach goers, you can expect mostly sunny days and fair nights through the week ahead all the way from Dauphin Island to Panama City. Great weather for the rest of the Hangout Music Festival today. Highs on the immediate coast will be 80 to 82 degrees. The water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab was 79 degrees. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here.

Today is the final day of the golf tournament at the Greystone Golf and Country Club. Plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures are what you can expect for the final round of the tournament today. No threat of rain as drier air settles into the area. Be sure to have the sunscreen handy. Click here for Regions Traditions Tickets.

College baseball heats up the Hoover Met for this week with SEC Baseball Tournament starting Tuesday and running through Sunday, May 24th to 29th. The weather looks pretty good for the tournament although it will be getting warmer as high temperatures reach the 87 to 90 degree range for most days; there could be isolated afternoon showers from Wednesday through the end of next week, but nothing widespread is anticipated. If heading out to the Hoover Met, be sure to take the sunscreen! Click Here For Event and Ticket information.

The upper ridge just to our west is separating two troughs, one over the West Coast and one over the East Coast. It is that trough that will be the primary feature in our weather pattern for about the next week. This will allow temperatures to climb well into the 80s with most locations reaching highs in the range of 87 to 91. This will be one of the first prolonged periods of warm weather, so be sure to be careful working in the heat and don’t overdo it. Without any specific feature in our weather pattern besides the ridge, I expect the warm afternoon temperatures will generate widely scattered thunderstorms in the afternoons starting Wednesday and running to the end of the week.

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With the ridge firmly in place over the eastern half of the country, the threat for severe weather will remain to our west primarily across the Central Plains states and into the Ohio River Valley states.

The ridge begins to show signs of weakening around Friday and Saturday as the deep trough over the western states sends a strong short wave northeastward. This short wave trough will beat down the ridge into next weekend, so showers are likely to become more numerous as we head into the next weekend. But there is no indication that we’ll see anything more than scattered thunderstorms.

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Remember the discussion yesterday about week 2 or voodoo country. Well that very interesting feature along the Gulf Coast is completely out of the long range model projections. In fact, there is a suggestion that June could start with a little less heat. And that is followed by the potential for a strong trough coming across the Mississippi River around the 5th and 6th of June bringing the potential for some widespread rain.

I want to thank the folks at Altoona for the warm reception Meaghan Thomas and I had yesterday at the Altoona Festival. It’s always nice to chat with folks about our favorite topic, the weather.

James Spann should have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Monday morning. Check back here often for updates on the Alabama weather scene. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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