Archive for April 12th, 2011
NWS Storm Survey Results
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
455 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2011
…UPDATE FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY PRELIMINARY DAMAGE…
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS…WITH AREAS OF EMBEDDED ROTATION…
MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS CAUSED WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THESE DAMAGING WINDS KNOCKED DOWN NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES.
SEVERAL OF THE FALLEN TREES LANDED ON HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS.
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WAS ALSO REPORTED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
…JEFFERSON COUNTY PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY…
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS SURVEYED DAMAGE LOCATIONS IN
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN VESTAVIA HILLS. THUS FAR…IT APPEARS THAT WINDS
OF UP TO 100 MPH SNAPPED OR UPROOTED DOZENS OF HARDWOOD AND SOFTWOOD
TREES SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE CITY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE
OCCURRED IN THE VICINITY OF CITY HALL WHERE NUMEROUS LARGE HARDWOOD
TREES WERE UPROOTED AND THIRTY PINE TREES WERE SNAPPED IN BIRD PARK.
SEVERAL HOMES RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE DUE TO TREES FALLING ON
THEM. DAMAGE EXTENDED MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF SHADES CREST ROAD
ABOUT A MILE ON EITHER SIDE OF HIGHWAY 31. OTHER DAMAGE LOCATIONS IN
JEFFERSON COUNTY…INCLUDING BLUFF PARK…WILL NEED TO BE SURVEYED
BEFORE A FINAL DETERMINATION CAN BE MADE. A SPECIAL THANKS TO THE
JEFFERSON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY FOR ASSISTANCE IN THE
DAMAGE ASSESSMENT.
…TUSCALOOSA COUNTY STORM SURVEY…
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS SURVEYED DAMAGE LOCATIONS IN
TUSCALOOSA COUNTY JUST SOUTH OF THE BUHL COMMUNITY. DAMAGE WAS NOTED
OFF OF COUNTY ROAD 103 CROSSING SIPSEY VALLEY ROAD NORTH…THEN TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST…TO CORNELIUS CHAPEL ROAD. SEVERAL HARDWOOD
TREES WERE UPROOTED. THE MAJORITY OF THE DAMAGE WAS TREES BLOWN
DOWN. THERE WAS ALSO ROOF DAMAGE TO A MANUFACTURED HOME. TREE DAMAGE
PATH LENGTH WAS ABOUT 3.4 MILES. PATH WIDTH WAS ABOUT 200 YARDS.
THERE WAS LACK OF ANY STRONG EVIDENCE THAT SUGGESTED A TORNADO.
BASED ON THESE FINDINGS…THE DAMAGE WAS CONSISTENT WITH STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS AROUND 90 MPH. A SPECIAL THANKS TO THE TUSCALOOSA COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY FOR ASSISTANCE IN THE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT.
…PICKENS COUNTY STORM SURVEY…
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS SURVEYED DAMAGE LOCATIONS IN
PICKENS COUNTY IN THE TOWN OF ALICEVILLE. DAMAGE WAS NOTED BETWEEN
SECOND STREET NORTHWEST AND NINTH STREET NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF
FIRST AVENUE NORTHEAST. A FEW HARDWOOD AND SOFTWOOD TREES WERE
UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. THERE WERE SIGNS OF VISIBLE DAMAGE AND
SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF ROOF COVERING TO SOME SMALL RETAIL BUILDINGS.
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH WAS ABOUT .9 MILE. PATH WIDTH WAS ABOUT 200
YARDS. THERE WAS LACK OF ANY STRONG EVIDENCE THAT SUGGESTED A
TORNADO. BASED ON THESE FINDINGS…THE DAMAGE WAS CONSISTENT WITH
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AROUND 90 MPH. A SPECIAL THANKS TO THE PICKENS
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY FOR ASSISTANCE IN THE DAMAGE
ASSESSMENT.
…FAYETTE COUNTY STORM SURVEY…
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS SURVEYED DAMAGE LOCATIONS IN
FAYETTE COUNTY JUST EAST OF THE TOWN OF FAYETTE. DAMAGE WAS NOTED
BETWEEN NEAR HIGHWAY 18 AND COUNTY ROAD 26. A FEW SOFTWOOD TREES
WERE SNAPPED. THERE WAS LACK OF ANY STRONG EVIDENCE THAT SUGGESTED A
TORNADO. BASED ON THESE FINDINGS…THE DAMAGE WAS CONSISTENT WITH
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AROUND 90 MPH. A SPECIAL THANKS TO THE FAYETTE
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY FOR ASSISTANCE IN THE DAMAGE
ASSESSMENT.
…WALKER COUNTY STORM SURVEY…
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS SURVEYED DAMAGE LOCATIONS IN
WALKER COUNTY OFF OF CURRY ROAD NORTH OF JASPER. THERE WAS
WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE 3 MILES SOUTH OF CURRY. DOZENS OF SOFTWOOD
TREES WERE EITHER SNAPPED OFF OR WERE UPROOTED. SEVERAL HARDWOOD
TREES WERE ALSO UPROOTED. THE MAJORITY OF THE DAMAGE WAS TREES BLOWN
DOWN. HOWEVER…A COUPLE OF HOUSES HAD MINOR WIND DAMAGE OR DAMAGE
DUE TO A TREE FALLING ON THEM. ONE HOME SUSTAINED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE
WHEN A LARGE LIMB FELL ON IT RENDERING THE HOME UNLIVABLE. TREE
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH WAS ABOUT 3.6 MILES. THERE WAS LACK OF ANY STRONG
EVIDENCE THAT SUGGESTED A TORNADO. BASED ON THESE FINDINGS…THE
DAMAGE WAS CONSISTENT WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AROUND 90 MPH. A
SPECIAL THANKS TO THE WALKER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY FOR
ASSISTANCE IN THE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUES TO INVESTIGATE OTHER DAMAGE
LOCATIONS…WHERE ORGANIZED AREAS OF DAMAGE MIGHT BE ATTRIBUTED TO
TORNADO TOUCHDOWN. ADDITIONAL PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS WILL BE
ISSUED PERIODICALLY…AS SURVEYS TEAMS REPORT BACK THEIR FINDINGS.
AT THIS TIME…STORM SURVEYS ARE ONGOING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
TEAM ONE: JEFFERSON COUNTY…BLUFF PARK.
TEAM TWO: BIBB COUNTY…BRENT.
A MAJOR CONTRIBUTION TO THE SUCCESS OF OUR SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
PROGRAM IS THE RECEIPT OF STORM REPORTS FROM ALL OUR CUSTOMERS AND
PARTNERS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. IF YOU WITNESSED OR ARE AWARE OF
ANY STORM DAMAGE DUE TO HIGH WINDS OR TORNADOES…PLEASE CONTACT
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE…OR CALL OUR STORM REPORTING
HOTLINE AT 1-800-856-0758.
Dry Through Thursday
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
THIS AFTERNOON: What a delightful spring afternoon. A sunny sky with temperatures generally in the low 70s along with low humidity values… dewpoints have dropped into the low 40s.
MID-WEEK: After a cool start tomorrow with a low in the mid 40s, look for a good supply of sunshine tomorrow and Thursday with a warming trend. We reach the mid 70s tomorrow, followed by a high near 80 on Thursday.
FRIDAY STORM EVENT: The 12Z GFS continues to trend slower with our end of the week system…. looks like the main thunderstorm threat will come from about 3:00 p.m. until 12:00 midnight. CAPE values rise to near 1,500 j/kg, with EHI values over 2.5 over West Alabama around sunset, so severe weather is certainly a possibility, and SPC has most of Alabama in a severe weather risk on their day 4 outlook. The configuration of the upper air and surface features suggest that once again damaging straight line winds could be the main threat.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK: We will forecast clearing and cooler weather on Saturday as we get into the dry slot rotating around a deep upper low well to the north; the high will be in the 66-70 degree range. Sunday should feature maximum available sunshine, low humidity, and a high in the low to mid 70s following a morning low in the low 40s. Great weather for race weekend at Talladega, or anything else you want to do outdoors.
NEXT WEEK: The 12Z GFS keeps us dry Monday and Tuesday, followed by a round of thunderstorms Wednesday. Model consistency has not been really good, so confidence in a specific forecast next week is not especially high. See the Weather Xtreme video for more details.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record this week’s show tonight at 8:30… listen/watch live on uStream here… the show will be up on the web and iTunes by midnight.
FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….
| James Spann | Jason Simpson | Ashley Brand |
| J. B. Elliott | Bill Murray | Brian Peters |
| Dr. Tim Coleman | WeatherBrains Podcast | E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings) |
I had a great time today visiting with the residents at Merrill Gardens in Northport, and also with the 3rd graders at Vance Elementary in Tuscaloosa County. Be looking for the kids from Vance on the Pepsi KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News at 6:00 this evening. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
24 Hour Rain Amounts
This will not be one of those three-mile long lists of Alabama rain amounts because last night’s storms did not produce extremely heavy amounts like some recent storm systems These totals for the 24 hours ending around 7 this morning:
0.65 Clay/Pinson (Womack Road)
0.65 Bessemer
0.77 Coker
0.80 West Trussville
0.59 Anniston
0.39 Auburn
0.68 Birmingham Airport
0.43 Calera/Shelby County Airport
0.22 Decatur
0.03 Dothan, barely enough to wet the streets
0.02 Evergreen, hardly enough to wet the sidewalk
0.66 Huntsville Airport
0.05 Mobile Regional Airport
0.40 Montgomery/Dannelly Field
0.07 Troy
0.94 Tuscaloosa Airport
0.73 Pinson
0.86 Cullman Airport
0.57 Scottsboro Airport
0.92 Albertville Airport
OTHERS
2.10 Cincinnati
3.66 Louisville
1.67 Nashville
2.93 Lexington, Ky.
USA TEMPERATURE EXTREMES
97 hottest yesterday, Edinburg, Tex.
18 this morning, Redmond, Ore., coldest in Lower 48
22 below zero, coldest in Alaska at Nuiqsut
62 inches of snow on the ground at Kotzebue, Alaska
Storm Photos
Here are shots of storm damage, and the actual storms themselves last night from all across Alabama… thanks to everybody for taking the time to send them to us!
To Warn, Or Not To Warn
Forget the issue with TV coverage last night… you can scroll down for my thoughts on that. I double boxed “Dancing With The Stars” simply because I did not believe we had a tornado on the ground.
The issue involves the warning process. Not all tornado warnings are alike; I think long time readers and viewers know that, and understand our point. The event last night was not in the same universe as the tornado disasters that killed many people on April 8, 1998, December 16, 2000, November 24, 2001, etc.
Last night’s situation was a QLCS (quasi linear convective system, or squall line), with potential for damaging straight line winds. Yes, within a line of storms like that you can have small, spin-up tornadoes, but they rarely last more than a few minutes, and are difficult, if not impossible to warn for in most cases. Instead of trying to focus people on small points along the line with a tornado warning, it takes away from the main message that the ENTIRE line is dangerous and capable of producing straight line wind damage. And, yes, there was lots of wind damage.
MY POSITION: Forget the spin-ups. The state of the science is not good enough to adequately warn for these short lived tornadoes, that quite frankly is not all that significant in relationship to the potential for widespread straight line damage from the line of storms. Blanket the line with severe thunderstorm warnings, and make it perfectly clear that small spin up tornadoes are possible within the line.
Last night the NWS in Birmingham took the “whack a mole” approach and tried to warn for spin-ups. The result was a rash of tornado warnings with polygons situated multiple times in the same county and lots of confusion. Below is the SPC storm reports graphic from yesterday and last night…
If you look hard enough, I am sure you will find evidence of damage from a spin-up tornado today, but that graphic clearly tells the story. It was a straight line wind event.
It is my belief that if you warn over and over and over for small spin-ups, when the big events come, like April 8, 1998, nobody will listen because they are so complacent. And, the tornado warnings that come from events last night simply rise the FAR (false alarm ratio). The tornado warning FAR is in the 80 percent range the last time I checked, and in my opinion it is simply too high.
Please understand I have no issue with the NWS… I have talked with my friend Jim Stefkovich, probably the best MIC (Meteorologist In Charge) of a local NWS office in the nation, many times about this, and we simply choose to disagree. Jim not only serves broadcasters, but also the local emergency management community as well, who seem to prefer the warnings for spin-ups. He is doing his job, and I love Jim’s passion and work ethic. Just a difference of opinion on handling these kind of severe weather situations.
BOTTOM LINE: It honestly doesn’t matter what I think, what the emergency management community thinks, or the NWS thinks. It matters what YOU think.
*Should the NWS issue a tornado warning every time they think there might be a small, short lived spin-up tornado a long a line of storms?
*Or, should a situation like last night be handled with severe thunderstorm warnings, with the clear wording that a spin-up is possible?
What say you?
