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After a primarily dry morning, it looks like the rest of the day will be fairly wet as run moves into Central Alabama from the southwest coming across Mississippi. Temperatures have been steady for much of the morning, so I do not expect to see highs get much above the lower and middle 50s for most locations here.
As the closed low over the Southwest US kicks out across the Southeast US, a surface low will form in the Northwest Gulf and track northeastward across Alabama. This should generate rain for the evening and early morning hours of Tuesday before the rain finally moves out around midday on Tuesday as the upper low comes by in the form of an open trough as it weakens somewhat. I do not expect to see severe weather around Central Alabama with this system. The threat for severe weather should remain offshore in the northern Gulf area. As the system moves out on Tuesday, the threat for severe weather moves to the Southeast US coast centered on the South Carolina coast.
Tuesday is also expected to be a chilly day with little change in temperature. I think the temperatures on Tuesday will stay in the lower 50s. By Wednesday, sunshine does return but that day will also be a bit chilly with a morning low around 32 and a high around 52. But as the upper flow goes zonal, I expect to see our temperatures moderate slowly for the rest of the week with the high by Friday around 60 to 62 degrees.
We will see a couple of short waves traverse the upper flow, but they should have very little if any moisture to work with, so while we might see some clouds, I do not expect to see any rain. That could change on January 1, 2012, with a fairly strong short wave that might be able to bring some moisture with it. But even then, the rainfall is not expected to be of much significance. And we should dry out rapidly for January 2nd.
Voodoo country continues to present an interesting scenario around the 6th. The GFS has remained consistent in presenting something of a winter event for the Southeast US. The exact location has been varying, but the idea of a winter event has now been on the table for three days. Confidence has grown as a result of the consistency of the forecast, but I still wouldn’t be jumping on it just yet.
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The Weather Xtreme Videos will be somewhat irregular this week since I am handling the morning weather duties on ABC 3340 this week. But I will try to get one posted each morning. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.
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