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Central Alabama 7 Day Forecast

Archive for February 17th, 2012

Big Rain Event To Start The Weekend

| 3:08 pm February 17, 2012

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

FANTASTIC FRIDAY: Very nice weather is the story for Alabama today, with sunshine through high clouds and temperatures in the 60s at mid-afternoon. But, big changes are ahead as we kick off the weekend.

SATURDAY SOAKER: Rain will move into Alabama tomorrow as a surface low runs from the Northwest Gulf of Mexico into South Alabama. It looks more and more like much of the morning will be rain-free, although we can’t rule out a few patches of light rain in scattered spots.

The bulk of the rain will come from about 12:00 noon tomorrow through 8:00 a.m. Sunday. The NAM is even more aggressive with the rain here on the 12Z run; it is now printing a whopping 3.19″ for Birmingham. The GFS is considerably drier with 0.77″, and since we expect a pretty big MCS on the Gulf Coast (mesoscale convective system)… you have to think the GFS might be closer to the truth for North-Central Alabama. We will still forecast one to two inches of rain for this part of the state, with potential for over three inches over South Alabama.

SEVERE STORMS? SPC has adjusted the severe weather risk a bit to the south, in response to the 12Z runs which keep the surface low a little more to the south. The slight risk is generally for areas south of a line from Linden to Montgomery to Roanoke. But, the higher severe weather probabilities (30 percent) are deeper into South Alabama… south of a line from Jackson to Greenville to Phenix City. No doubt the best combination and shear will be close to the Gulf Coast, where they will have the dual threat of severe weather and flooding.

The chance of severe weather for the northern half of the state is minimal.

SUNDAY: The 12Z runs are also a little slower in ending the rain. Looks like we need to hang on to some risk of lingering rain through about mid-morning Sunday, and it now looks like the sky will remain overcast all day with a high around 50 and a cool northwest breeze.

TO THE NORTH: We might actually see a few snow flakes Sunday morning near the Tennessee border, but there won’t be any accumulation. Best chance of accumulating snow will be over northern Tennessee up into Kentucky, and eastward into West Virginia.

NEXT WEEK: Monday will be dry with a good supply of sunshine and a high around 60. Next round of showers and storms will come Tuesday night into Wednesday… doesn’t look like a severe weather threat at this point. See the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details.

CENTER POINT TOWN HALL: We will be doing a special town hall meeting at Center Point High School Sunday evening at 5:00 on the severe weather warning process in Alabama. We encourage you to come out and learn more about how the warning system worked during the early morning hours of January 23 when an EF-3 tornado tore through Center Point and Clay, killing one person. This event will be carried live on ABC 33/40, and the question and answer session will be streamed live.

STORM ALERT 2012: We sure enjoyed being at Pleasant Grove High School last night… next week we will head to Calhoun County for a show at Pleasant Valley High School (west of Jacksonville) Thursday night at 6:30. We hope to see many of you there. Storm Alert 2012 is our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama as we get everybody ready for the spring tornado season, which kicks off March 1.

I had a great time today visiting with the kindergarten kids at Alexandria Elementary in Calhoun County… they will be on the Pepsi KIDCAM at 6:00 this evening on ABC 33/40… the kids from Crestline Elementary in Mountain Brook will be on at 5:00.

Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday… my next video will be posted bright and early Monday morning by 7:00. Enjoy the weekend!

The 1995 Joppa-Arab Tornado

| 3:00 pm February 17, 2012

ABC 33/40 Skywatcher Mike Wilhelm maintains a fantastic blog at bamawx.com.

He penned a great story yesterday on the Anniversary of the February 16, 1995 tornado that struck Arab and Joppa in North Alabama.  The event is largely credited with the re-establishment of a NWS office in Huntsville after the older one was closed in 1997

Here is a link to the story, which contains some great video clips as well.

Saturday Soaker Ahead

| 6:02 am February 17, 2012

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

STILL DRY TODAY: The sky over Alabama today will be partly sunny with a high in the mid 60s; clouds will thicken late in the day and tonight ahead of a vigorous weather system that will bring a soaking rain as we begin the weekend.

TIMING: Watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the maps and graphics that should answer your questions about tomorrow’s weather. The rain will spread across Alabama tomorrow morning from southwest to northeast, but a decent part of the morning could be dry for North-Central Alabama. By mid-afternoon the rain should be rather widespread, continuing into Saturday night. The rain will end during the pre-dawn hours Sunday.

HOW MUCH RAIN? The 00Z NAM is printing 2.23″ for Birmingham… while the GFS is drier with 1.09″. We will forecast amounts of one to two inches for this part of Alabama, with isolated heavier amounts. The heaviest rain will be down over South Alabama, with two to three inches likely.

SEVERE STORMS? SPC maintains their standard “slight risk” of severe weather over the southern half of Alabama. The enhanced probabilities (30 percent chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a given point) are south of Montgomery, where the best mix of instability and shear will be found.

I would say the best chance of seeing severe storms this weekend will be south of a line from Linden to Montgomery to Roanoke, although we can’t totally rule out a severe storm as far north as I-20. The severe weather risk north of I-20 is very minimal. Just lots of rain there.

Over South Alabama, all modes of severe weather will be possible, including potential for a few isolated tornadoes. Seems like the main window for severe storms will come from 12:00 noon until 12:00 midnight tomorrow. We encourage every in South Alabama to be in a position to hear severe weather warnings in the event they are needed.

SUNDAY: We will forecast gradual clearing Sunday… and we will be slightly cooler with a high in the 50s. But, often in situations like this the clouds on the back side of the departing system can hang around longer than you think. I would not be totally shocked if we stay overcast all day Sunday with a cool breeze.

NEXT WEEK: Monday will be dry, and there will be some rain at mid-week. Models have been all over the board on timing; watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the 06Z GFS brings in a batch of showers and storms Tuesday night, and we go dry quickly on Wednesday and through the rest of the week. But, other runs have kept in some risk of showers into Wednesday, and even Thursday.

Still no sign of any extremely cold air, or winter weather mischief here through early March.

TUSCALOOSA WEATHER RADIO PROGRAMMING: We will be at the Publix on University Blvd in Tuscaloosa today from 10:30 until 1:00… if you need your NOAA Weather Radio receiver programmed, bring it by and we will be glad to handle that at no cost. And, if you need to buy a weather radio they are available at that Publix, and all of their locations.

CENTER POINT TOWN HALL: We will be doing a special town hall meeting at Center Point High School Sunday evening at 5:00 on the severe weather warning process in Alabama. We encourage you to come out and learn more about how the warning system worked during the early morning hours of January 23 when an EF-3 tornado tore through Center Point and Clay, killing one person. This event will be carried live on ABC 33/40, and the question and answer session will be streamed live.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I will be over in East Alabama today doing a weather program at Alexandria Elementary School… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!