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FANTASTIC FRIDAY: Very nice weather is the story for Alabama today, with sunshine through high clouds and temperatures in the 60s at mid-afternoon. But, big changes are ahead as we kick off the weekend.
SATURDAY SOAKER: Rain will move into Alabama tomorrow as a surface low runs from the Northwest Gulf of Mexico into South Alabama. It looks more and more like much of the morning will be rain-free, although we can’t rule out a few patches of light rain in scattered spots.
The bulk of the rain will come from about 12:00 noon tomorrow through 8:00 a.m. Sunday. The NAM is even more aggressive with the rain here on the 12Z run; it is now printing a whopping 3.19″ for Birmingham. The GFS is considerably drier with 0.77″, and since we expect a pretty big MCS on the Gulf Coast (mesoscale convective system)… you have to think the GFS might be closer to the truth for North-Central Alabama. We will still forecast one to two inches of rain for this part of the state, with potential for over three inches over South Alabama.
SEVERE STORMS? SPC has adjusted the severe weather risk a bit to the south, in response to the 12Z runs which keep the surface low a little more to the south. The slight risk is generally for areas south of a line from Linden to Montgomery to Roanoke. But, the higher severe weather probabilities (30 percent) are deeper into South Alabama… south of a line from Jackson to Greenville to Phenix City. No doubt the best combination and shear will be close to the Gulf Coast, where they will have the dual threat of severe weather and flooding.
The chance of severe weather for the northern half of the state is minimal.
SUNDAY: The 12Z runs are also a little slower in ending the rain. Looks like we need to hang on to some risk of lingering rain through about mid-morning Sunday, and it now looks like the sky will remain overcast all day with a high around 50 and a cool northwest breeze.
TO THE NORTH: We might actually see a few snow flakes Sunday morning near the Tennessee border, but there won’t be any accumulation. Best chance of accumulating snow will be over northern Tennessee up into Kentucky, and eastward into West Virginia.
NEXT WEEK: Monday will be dry with a good supply of sunshine and a high around 60. Next round of showers and storms will come Tuesday night into Wednesday… doesn’t look like a severe weather threat at this point. See the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details.
CENTER POINT TOWN HALL: We will be doing a special town hall meeting at Center Point High School Sunday evening at 5:00 on the severe weather warning process in Alabama. We encourage you to come out and learn more about how the warning system worked during the early morning hours of January 23 when an EF-3 tornado tore through Center Point and Clay, killing one person. This event will be carried live on ABC 33/40, and the question and answer session will be streamed live.
STORM ALERT 2012: We sure enjoyed being at Pleasant Grove High School last night… next week we will head to Calhoun County for a show at Pleasant Valley High School (west of Jacksonville) Thursday night at 6:30. We hope to see many of you there. Storm Alert 2012 is our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama as we get everybody ready for the spring tornado season, which kicks off March 1.
I had a great time today visiting with the kindergarten kids at Alexandria Elementary in Calhoun County… they will be on the Pepsi KIDCAM at 6:00 this evening on ABC 33/40… the kids from Crestline Elementary in Mountain Brook will be on at 5:00.
Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday… my next video will be posted bright and early Monday morning by 7:00. Enjoy the weekend!