Archive for April 10th, 2012
A Few Showers, Then Much Cooler
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THIS AFTERNOON: On radar this afternoon a few showers are widely scattered across North Alabama ahead of a cold front approaching from the north. The showers are north of I-20, and should fade away this evening as they encounter drier and the sun does down, making the air more stable.
Temperatures are generally in the mid to upper 70s this afternoon, although some places up in the Tennessee Valley are in the 60s because of clouds and showers.
JACK FROST IN APRIL: Much cooler air blows into Alabama late tonight, we will start the day tomorrow in the 40 to 45 degree range. The sky will be brilliantly sunny tomorrow with a high in the 60s along with a cool north breeze.
No change in our thinking for early Thursday. Most places will see a low between 32 and 39 degrees with frost likely. The best chance of a freeze will be across the colder valleys of Northeast Alabama, but frost is likely down into Central Alabama, even in places south of Birmingham.
Frost advisories will be issued by the NWS offices in Huntsville and Birmingham for tomorrow night and early Thursday, and growers will need to protect tender vegetation that could be harmed by frost.
We should note the last time we had a low below 40 degrees was back on March 10, when the low in Birmingham was 37.
FRIDAY: I probably need to stress here that scattered light frost is also possible at daybreak Friday, mainly for the colder valleys of Northeast Alabama. Most places will see a low early Friday in the low 40s. The day will feature a good supply of sunshine with a high in the mid 70s.
OUR WEEKEND: The GFS is printing a high of 78 on Saturday, followed by 82 Sunday. Looks pretty good to us, and most of the weekend will be dry. We might consider a small risk of a shower late Sunday over West Alabama, but the 12Z GFS looks pretty dry statewide. The sky will be partly sunny both days with humidity levels slowly on the rise.
NEXT WEEK: The 12Z GFS is dry Monday, followed by a round of showers and storms late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Remains to be seen if there will be a severe weather; the 12Z GFS looks rather marginal, but we have to remember that this is mid-April and all systems like this have to be watched closely. See the Weather Xtreme video for more long range ideas and details.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s new episode.
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I sure enjoyed seeing a big crowd today at Northbrook Baptist Church in Cullman… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
“Terrible Tuesday,” April 10, 1979
Today is the 33 anniversary of the F4 tornado that ripped a path of destruction through Wichita Falls, Texas on April 10, 1979. This was not the only tornado that day, as it was part of the Red River Valley tornado outbreak of 1979. The F4 that hit Wichita Falls was the largest and most powerful of the outbreak. This was a typical severe weather outbreak, as a low pressure was deepening in Colorado, lifting a warm front northward, and pushing a cold front into the area of instability. When the storms developed that rapidly moved from the southwest to the northeast.
In the mid-afternoon that day, several large, discrete supercells began to develop and rapidly developed tornadoes. The tornado that hit Wichita Falls was the third tornadic supercell that day. The supercell that produced the tornado was responsible for a family of tornadoes. This tornado was actually the second tornado spawned by that supercell and hit the city just after 6:00PM that evening. The storm was preceded by golf-ball and softball size hail across the city. As the thunderstorm approached the city there were reports of three separate funnel clouds that merged and formed the large tornado. The path of the twister brought it into the southwestern part of the city and continued its deadly and devastating track northeastward into the east side of the city. Many deaths happened on the local highways as many people were trying to outrun the tornado.
The aftermath of the tornado outbreak was devastating, 58 fatalities, 42 of them in Wichita Falls that day. Many apartment complexes, homes, restaurants, and even a shopping mall were destroyed. The tornado continues to be the 5th costliest tornado in United States history.
Frost Likely By Daybreak Thursday
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
CALM WEATHER: The good news is that there is no severe weather threat for Alabama through the weekend as the main action will remain over the Southern Plains. In fact, there will be some severe weather risk just about every day through the weekend over parts of North Texas and Oklahoma, but around here it will be hard to find any raindrops.
TODAY/TOMORROW: We will call it partly sunny today with a high in the upper 70s; some places could reach the 80 degree mark this afternoon. I guess we might see a shower or thunderstorm on radar over North Alabama later today or early tonight along the cold front moving in from the north, but down this way the chance of rain still looks tiny and we have not mentioned it in the forecast. We will probably bring in the risk of isolated showers and storms in the next update, but again it should not be widespread.
Much cooler air moves into the state tomorrow. We won’t get out of the 60s with a cool north breeze. The sky will be bright and sunny with very low humidity.
FROST EARLY THURSDAY: We are still projecting lows in the 32 to 39 degree range early Thursday. The best chance of seeing freezing temperatures will be over the coldest valleys of Northeast Alabama, but frost is likely elsewhere, and the NWS will be issuing a frost advisory for much of North and Central Alabama. If you planted early (I would like to think blog readers didn’t, since we have been warning of this late season cold snap for weeks), you will need to cover and protect tender vegetation tomorrow night.
I should also note that Friday morning will be chilly as well, and the colder valleys across Northeast Alabama might have a touch of light frost again, but most places will stay above 40 at daybreak Friday.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: We warm up quickly, with mid 70s by Friday, and highs around 80 over the weekend. The weather stays dry, although we will mention a slight risk of a shower Sunday afternoon, mainly over the western third of the state. An upper ridge over the Southeast U.S. should keep the rain west of Alabama through Sunday.
NEXT WEEK: The ridge slowly breaks down, and showers and storms will finally ease in here by Tuesday or Wednesday; the 00Z GFS hints that we might have a severe weather threat, but this is a long way away and we have seen many other runs that looked pretty benign. We will keep an eye on things; we always have to do that in April around here as you know. We should note the 00Z GFS also brings in another shot of chilly air following that mid-week rain/storm event, but getting frost around here doesn’t happen too often after April 15. I think it is pretty safe to plant after Thursday morning. See the Weather Xtreme video for details and all of the graphics.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
I will be speaking at NorthBrook Baptist Church in Cullman this morning… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
WeatherBrains 324: Kevin Had His Energy Drink
WeatherBrains Episode 324 is now online (April 9, 2012). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!
Our guest panelist is Jen Watson, the morning meteorologist at WTVA in Tupelo, MS. She has her Bachelors from East Carolina and her Masters from Mississippi State.
An upstate New York native, Jennifer was born and raised in Rochester. She loved growing up in the Northeast, especially with the lake effect snow. Her parents, twin sister, and older sister now reside in North Carolina. She loves football and baseball and is a fan of the Buffalo Bills and New York Yankees. Despite growing up in New York, she loves Mississippi and its home town appeal. Jennifer is also a storm chaser, having chased storms locally and in the Great Plains. She has been storm spotter certified by the National Weather Service and is a member of the North Mississippi Intercept Team.
And our guest WeatherBrains is Dr. Laura Myers. Dr. Myers is a disaster preparedness research professor at Mississippi State University. She has been conducting extensive research into the response to the April 27th tornadoes. Laura ran the Town Hall meeting at the NWA meeting in Birmingham last October.
Dr. Laura Myers joined the Social Science Research Center (SSRC) in January, 2011, as a Research Professor. She serves as Principal Investigator on a Department of Homeland Security grant concerning regional disaster response planning; through this grant, she will develop regional emergency planning networks on the Gulf Coast of the United States. Dr. Myers holds a doctorate in criminology from Florida State University, and her publication and training areas include disaster management and planning, criminal justice education, criminal courts, criminal justice ethics, criminal justice administration, and cultural diversity. Her publications can be found in the Journal of Business Continuity and Emergency Planning, the Journal of Criminal Justice Education, and the Prison Journal, among others. Dr. Myers’ latest textbook on criminal justice will be her third book published in this field.
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
Our mail bag has been getting some attention and Kevin puts it all in perspective.
From The Weather Center:
WeatherBrains 101: There’s a lot to tracking the weather. Some people think it’s all about weather observations. But there is another way to figure out what the weather is doing and it’s called phenology. That is the topic for this episode of 101.
TWIWH: Bill Murray looks back at the week of April 10th. Flooding was one of the biggest weather events going on, but that was eclipsed by the Palm Sunday Tornado Outbreak.
Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.
Web Sites from Episode 324:
Social Science Research Center, Mississippi State University
Picks of the Week:
JB Elliott – Lenticular Clouds over Las Vegas
Bill Murray – Weather-Society Community Discussion Board
Brian Peters – Loves the horn ! !
Kevin Selle – WFO Dallas/Fort Worth Survey of Tornadoes on April 3, 2012
James Spann – Hail near Woodward, OK
JP Spann – Bow echo image
Jen Watson – Gets the Horn
The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like JB Elliott, Kevin Selle, Bill Murray, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.
