Archive for April 17th, 2012
**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today due to our special tornado safety meeting at Fair Park in Birmingham**
THIS AFTERNOON: See the radar below for a look at our weather short after 2:00…
A few strong storms are possible this evening with heavy rain, but severe weather is not expected. We will hang on to the chance of rain through the night as the upper trough just creeps through Alabama. Additional rain amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch are likely.
TOMORROW: The rain will end from west to east early in the day tomorrow, followed by afternoon clearing. It is possible parts of East Alabama could stay cloudy through the day thanks to the slow movement of the upper trough. If the sun does pop out, we reach the mid 70s. Where clouds hang tough, it will be hard to get out of the 60s.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: These will be the two driest days of the week; Thursday will feature maximum available sunshine with a high around 80. Low 80s are possible Friday with a partly sunny sky. Moisture will begin to increase, and we might see a shower or two on radar, but most communities will be dry.
THE WEEKEND: See the 12Z GFS model output below valid at 1:00 p.m. Saturday…
The model continues to show a strong surface low around New Orleans, which promises to bring a wet weekend to Alabama. It won’t rain all day Saturday, but it sure looks like at least 2 to 3 hours of rain will be likely, and possibly more. Thunderstorms could be involved, but severe weather looks unlikely in this configuration with the surface low to the south. The rain could very well be heavy at times during the day, and into Saturday night.
The low moves slowly to the east/northeast, and wrap around moisture will keep us cloudy on Sunday with periods of mostly light rain. The GFS has trended a little warmer, showing highs in the low to mid 70s Saturday and Sunday.
Bottom line is that the weekend looks wet; the most widespread and heaviest rain comes on Saturday, with light rain at times Sunday in the wrap around moisture on the back side of the departing surface low.
NEXT WEEK: The weather looks pleasant Monday and Tuesday with a good supply of sunshine both days and a high in the 70s. We will be in the 40s early Monday and Tuesday morning.
You can see the morning Weather Xtreme video for more details and graphics.
BIRMINGHAM TORNADO SAFETY MEETING: We are holding a special severe weather safety program at Fair Park in the CrossPlex meeting room at 6:45 this evening… we are giving away free NOAA Weather Radios to the first 400 adults. And, free Blue Bell ice cream for everyone. I will be there doing the weather live on ABC 33/40 News at 4, 5, and 6:00.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night. Many great guests.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
Look for the next Weather Xtreme video by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
The area of rain over Mississippi and northwest Alabama has moved very little since early this morning. The above radar loop is for approximately the past 3 hours. However, notice that, in the warm, unstable air out ahead of the main rain area, scattered thunderstorms are starting to develop, some in the BHM Metro area. More of these will likely develop as temperatures slowly rise with mostly cloudy skies this afternoon.
You can really see the difference between the stable, steady rain area and the unstable area ahead of it on satellite. Notice the bubbly clouds forming over central and south AL and GA. Some of these bubbly cumulus clouds will develop into storms this afternoon, especially near the stalled out front that is just north of I-59.
The big rain area in Mississippi and NW Alabama has produced some heavy rainfall amounts, with much of NW Alabama already receiving 1-2″ of rain this morning, and parts of Mississippi up near 4″, where numerous Flash Flood Warnings are up. That rain area will finally start to move east toward the BHM area by this evening, as an upper-level disturbance, currently approaching northern Louisiana (see chart below), kicks the whole system through here. As it does, most of us will receive some good rain, generally around a half inch, with some spots getting up to 1″. NW Alabama, where it has already been raining, may have a few spots with 3-4″ of rain before it is over.
Most of Alabama is still rainless at this hour but not everywhere. The big area of moderate to heavy rain to our west is still there but there has not been much of an eastward movement in the last several hours.
Movement is toward the NNE and there is virtually no lightning.
Shortly after 11 am, the main area of precipitation extended from South Central and Southwest Mississippi extending north and northeast into Northwest Alabama. In Alabama, very heavy rain was in progress across Lamar and Fayette County, northward through Marion and Franklin County to the Florence-Muscle Shoals area in the NW corner of the state.
NWS, Jackson has posted Flash Flood Warnings for at least three counties in Central and South Mississippi.
Looking more and more like it will be after lunch before this heavier rain reaches the Birmingham Metro area. Good chance we will get over an inch in the next 24 hours.
There is only a small percentage of the USA under any risk of severe weather at this time. That is North Georgia and South Carolina.
At 8:25 am, numerous showers, moderate to heavy, extend, in a broad band, from North Louisiana northeast across Mississippi into Northwest Alabama. It is pouring at this time over Northwest Alabama’s Marion, Franklin and North Lamar County, It is also pouring over several Northeast Mississippi counties.
Credit a lot of that to a stalled front now from a low in along the Texas Coast extending northeast over South Mississippi and across Central Alabama. Not to be overlooked, is another low aloft off the north coast of California. It will move eastward and this may enhance a surface low over the Northeast Gulf of Mexico by Sunday, Translation: More rain for the Southeast.
One of the weather models that tries to estimate rain amounts is showing as much as 3 to 4 inches of additional rain during the next five days across a good part of Alabama.
The Storm Prediction Center has posted a “slight risk” for severe weather for North Georgia and South Carolina.
Back home in Alabama, we believe that our most pleasant weather in the near future will be Wednesday night, Thursday, Friday and Sunday.
We shall see.
Will try to post some sort of a rain scorecard (progress report) later this morning. Some serious flash flooding in South Texas in the last 24 hours…as much as eight inches in places. It was a hot 91 in Albany, N.Y., yesterday. Sometimes the weather gets out of whack over a wide area!
But life goes on!
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
STILL WET: An upper trough will pass through Alabama today bringing periods of rain and possibly a few thunderstorms. Temperatures will stay in the 60s much of the day, so the air will be quite stable and we don’t expect any problems with severe weather around here. SPC has defined the standard “slight risk” to the east over parts of Georgia and South Carolina. Additional rain amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch are likely before the rain ends late tonight.
MID-WEEK: The models are generally slower in moving the trough out, and it looks like we will have lingering clouds tomorrow morning; maybe even a little light rain in spots during the early morning hours over the eastern half of the state. In fact, the NAM is actually suggesting the entire day could be cloudy, so we will take a good peek at the new 12Z model set a little later this morning and adjust the forecast accordingly. If the sun can break through, we will reach the mid 70s tomorrow afternoon. Thursday looks like a delightful day, with a good supply of sunshine and a high in the upper 70s.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Moisture begins to return Friday, but there is little forcing and we believe the daytime hours will be dry with a partly sunny sky and a high around 80 degrees. Some rain could move into the state late Friday night.
The weekend looks wet, unfortunately. The last few runs of the GFS have developed a deep trough west of the state, with a significant surface low developing on the Louisiana coast (do we need to give this thing a name?). The 00Z GFS brings the low to a point near Dothan at midday Sunday, and of course on this track that will wet down Alabama. The heaviest rain should come on Saturday, but clearly we will need to mention clouds and some lingering light rain on Sunday as well if this scenario pans out. Rain amounts of 1-2 inches are likely over the weekend, but the good news is that severe weather won’t be a problem if indeed the surface low passes south of us.
We will also need to raise temperatures a bit over the weekend with daytime highs in the 70s based on this idea. Earlier runs suggested we would be in cooler with readings only in the 60s.
NEXT WEEK: If the idea of a surface low along the Gulf Coast is correct, it won’t be as cold as we thought early Monday, with lows mostly in the 40s. The first half of the week looks dry with a slow warming trend.
See the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics and long range ideas.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night… had some great guests including Greg Carbin of the Storm Prediction Center, Jim Stefkovich and Alan Gerard of the NWS offices in Birmingham and Jackson, Dave Freeman of KSN-TV in Wichita, and our own John Brown and Mike Wilhelm, who were on the Great Plains this past weekend.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon…. enjoy the day!