Archive for April 18th, 2012
Dry Air Settles Into Alabama
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THIS AFTERNOON: The sky is indeed clearing slowly across Alabama. The sun is out in full force in areas north and west of Birmingham, with clouds lingering over the eastern counties. We go clear statewide tonight as dry air takes over.
Tomorrow and Friday look like delightful days, with a good supply of sunshine both days along with a high around 80. Low level moisture will begin to return Friday, but the day should be dry.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK: The 12Z GFS and ECMWF are trending farther south with the surface low along the Gulf Coast. This will still mean wet weather for Alabama over the weekend, but if the morning runs are correct the heaviest rain will come over the southern half of the state, where strong storms will be possible near the Gulf Coast. SPC defines a severe weather risk on Saturday for the southern quarter of Alabama, generally south of U.S. 84, and all of the state of Florida, even down to Miami and Key West.
With the surface low to the south, severe weather should not be an issue here over North and Central Alabama, and the 12Z runs now suggest 1/2 to 1 inch of rain for this end of the state.
While Saturday still looks wet at times, for now it looks like the rain won’t be quite as heavy or steady as it looked yesterday. We will mention periods of rain Saturday and Sunday; perhaps the most widespread rain comes late Saturday and Saturday night. I know there are many outdoor events scheduled this weekend; let’s look at the next two runs and we will make adjustments as needed on the forecast package for early tomorrow.
NEXT WEEK: Mornings will be cooler early next week with 40s likely early Monday and Tuesday. The first half of the week will be dry with sunny mild days and clear cool nights. See the Weather Xtreme video for details… the good news is that we don’t see any really significant severe weather setup for Alabama and the Deep South for the next 15 days.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
I had a great time today seeing the entire student body at T.S. Boyd Junior High School in Dora, and Cordova Elementary just up the road in Walker County. Look for those kids on the Pepsi KIDCAM at 5:00 and 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
Improving Weather Today
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
GRADUAL CLEARING: Rain is lingering this morning over parts of East and Central Alabama; as of 5:30 the rain was east of a line from Gadsden to Clanton to Uniontown. This rain will move out of the state by mid-morning, and we will forecast slow clearing across the state this afternoon as the upper trough moves on to the east. If the sun can indeed pop out later today, most places will reach the low to mid 70s. Some communities in East Alabama could see the clouds hang tough even into the afternoon, however, and there temperatures won’t get out of the 60s.
TOMORROW/FRIDAY: Tomorrow promises to be a beautiful day, with sunshine in full supply along with a high in the upper 70s. And, on Friday, although low level moisture will begin to return, we believe the day will be dry with a partly sunny sky and a high not too far from 80 degrees. Showers could return Friday night.
WET WEEKEND: Unfortunately the weekend looks like it will feature lots of rain. A deep upper low will move through the Gulf Coast region, spinning up a surface low that will move through South Alabama and South Georgia. This setup is usually a very efficient rain producer for our state; guidance from HPC suggests we could see rain amounts in excess of two inches.
The heaviest rain should come on Saturday, and SPC has defined a severe weather risk for the southern quarter of Alabama, generally along and south of U.S. 84, and over the entire state of Florida. Would not be shocked to see a few tornadoes in that southeast quadrant of the surface low; wonder if any storm chasers will be headed to Tampa or Orlando (?!?). Up this way, we will be north of the surface low and I don’t expect a major issue with severe weather, although cold air aloft associated with the upper low could bring a few storms with hail.
We will have periods of mostly light rain Sunday in the wrap around moisture on the back side of the departing surface/upper low. We might have a hard time getting out of the 60s. See the Weather Xtreme video for more weekend forecast details and all of the graphics.
NEXT WEEK: The first half of the week looks very pleasant with sunny days and fair nights Monday through Wednesday. Monday morning will be cool with a low in the 40s.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
Busy day today… will spend some time in Walker County with weather programs at Boyd Junior High in Dora, and then Cordova Elementary. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
In the Early, Early Hours of Wednesday–3:55 Report
While most of Alabama was asleep, a nice band of showers continued to parade northeastward mainly through South and East Alabama. Not much lightning and the rain was not extremely heavy.
At 3:55 am, most of the showers had passed south and east of the Birmingham Area and into North Georgia. Very little lightning. Numerous moderate to heavy showers continue in the Atlanta area and much of North Georgia. Moving toward the northeast.
Back home in Alabama, there was a narrow area of heavier showers in Central Alabama generally in the Demopolis-Clanton area moving toward the northeast.
None of the activity across Alabama early this morning appears to be dangerous. Almost no lightning.
Interesting to note that, so far, the Storm Prediction Center does not have any of the good ole USA even under a slight risk of severe weather today. We all know that could change but those experts sure could use some rest! They have done a huge job concerning the recent major tornado outbreaks!
During the next few days, we believe the best chance for rain here in Alabama will be Saturday and Saturday night when many areas may get close to an inch of rain. Most of Thursday should be dry and mostly sunny. Maybe a few showers on Friday.
We shall see!
