Archive for April 20th, 2012
Some Rain At Times Through Tomorrow
**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today… having to head out to Regions Park for live weather on ABC 33/40. Tonight the Barons will recognize tornado survivors, and have a special helmet giveaway… hope to see many of you there**
RIGHT NOW: Showers continue over East Alabama….
Temperatures are near 80 over the northwest corner of the state, but readings are only in the 60s over parts of East Alabama where showers are in progress.
TONIGHT/TOMORROW: We will maintain a chance of showers statewide. The rain won’t be heavy or continuous… just expect a few periods of rain for the next 24 hours. Temperatures will hold in the 60s much of the day tomorrow with clouds with showers. Rain amounts should be generally 1/4 inch or less.
The sky will clear tomorrow night, and we turn cooler. Most places will be in the mid 40s at daybreak Sunday.
SUNDAY: Sunshine returns in full force, but the day will be windy with north winds of 15-25 mph, gusting at times over 30 mph. The wind is thanks to a very deep surface low moving into the mid-Atlantic coast region. This system promises to bring very heavy snow from West Virginia north through western Pennsylvania and into the western part of New York State.
FROST EARLY TUESDAY? While we will be in the mid 40s early Monday, it sure looks like many North and Central Alabama communities could very well see 30s early Tuesday. Just maybe the latest frost on record for some communities; growers will need to monitor forecasts as we get closer, but some very late season frost is a very real possibility Tuesday morning. We warm up later in the week, with low 80s by Thursday and Friday. Looks most all of the week will be rain-free. See the morning Weather Xtreme video for more long range ideas…
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
Look for my next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. Monday… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!
My Little Pal Needs A Home
No… we usually don’t do lost dog or cat stories here, but I will make an exception.
About a month ago, I was in Pratt City, in the middle of the severe tornado damage (from last year’s April 27 EF-4), doing some video work for ABC 33/40.
While I was getting ready to go on camera, we saw movement in a debris pile in a damaged home behind me. At first I thought it was a snake, but we saw something larger than a snake emerge from that rubble. Turned out to be a black dog that basically looked very ill, and very malnourished. Gina Womack, in our marketing department here at ABC 33/40, took this picture…
We opted not to get close since we weren’t sure what the situation was, but we called animal control, who came and picked up the dog.
To this day nobody really knows the story. There actually was a microchip found in the dog, and the original owners were in Adamsville. BJC was able to find the original owners, but they were not able to take the dog back, and indicated the dog was stolen. The folks at BJC think the dog is about 4 to 5 years old.
I don’t know if this little guy has been in the house since April 27 or not. But, he was clearly lost, unloved, and in need of some food and love.
GOOD NEWS: BJC Animal Control reports that the dog has recovered fully, and is now ready to be adopted. Trust me, I would take him in a heartbeat, but due to allergy situations at our home it just isn’t possible. I dropped by to see him about a week ago… see the video below…
As you can see, this guy is doing very well. If you are interested, he is at BJC Animal Control, near the Birmingham Airport. Their number is (205) 591 6522. This is a very good story as we approach the one year anniversary of a horrific event. We look forward to finding out where this guy will call home in the years ahead…
Media Gets It Wrong – Again…
This concerns the “NOVA” program that aired recently on PBS… you can watch it here.
Let me say up front I was delighted to see my friends Greg Carbin of the Storm Prediction Center and Tim Marshall of Haag Engineering. They are the best and were right on the money as always.
This post is not an argument about who has more tornadoes. We ALL have plenty of tornadoes in Oklahoma and here in Dixie Alley. I have zero interest in this debate. I am thankful for my many friends in Oklahoma in both the operational and research community. Their service to the science is invaluable.
HOWEVER…..
There was a clear implication in the show that people in Oklahoma are used to severe weather and that is why the loss of life there was lower last year. And, on the other hand, the suggestion was that the tornadoes in Alabama and Mississippi were an anomaly, catching people off guard resulting in the high death toll on April 27.
WRONG.
First off, tornadoes in Dixie Alley are common. But the media often uses phrases to explain severe weather here like…
“changing weather patterns”
“highly unusual”
“global warming”
“unheard of”
Give me a break.
The meteorologist in charge of the Jackson NWS office, Alan Gerard, speaks out below. All I can say is AMEN. Too bad nobody with this program bothered to talk with Alan or anybody else around these parts. Guess we are not “enlightened” enough for them.
“Let me preface this by saying I have not seen the actual NOVA episode yet that has some people in my neck of the woods railing – but nevertheless, I am concerned about what I have heard and other media stories which make it sound like the recent tornado outbreaks in the Southeast are somehow unusual or new.
With 2011 now in the official database, I went in today and did some back of the hand comparisons between the Plains (KS, NE, OK, N TX) and the Southeast (AR, MS, LA, TN, GA). I don’t think anyone would argue that the Plains has more tornadoes – but where there is a difference is the impacts.
My very quick, not rigorous, calculations show that since 1950 the Plains and Southeast have about the same number of significant (which I defined as EF2+ with 10 mile or greater track) tornadoes, ~4 per 1000 sq miles. The difference is in the casualties: the Plains average about 3.7 deaths and 48 injuries per 1000 square miles, the Southeast averages about 7.3 and 88 injuries per 1000 square miles. So the basic fact is this: regardless of the fact that the Plains may have “more tornadoes,” more people are killed and injured from tornadoes in the Southeast.
And while there are many reasons for this, at the core, it’s pretty simple: more people live in the Southeast, there are more people living in mobile homes in the Southeast, and there are more nocturnal tornadoes in the Southeast. These are the points we need to make in the media. And this is not something that has changed, or is unusual, or just happened. It’s been this way for a long time, and it’s not going to change anytime soon. We as a weather community need to be with a consistent voice emphasizing that if you live in the Southeast, you live in a dangerous area with regard to tornadoes, and you need to be weather aware 12 months out of the year.”
Well said, Alan. I hope some of the media people who talk about things they don’t understand read this. I will close with a news release just received this morning from Engineering Analysis, Inc. The people at NOVA might find it interesting.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
By means of the Site Assessment of Tornado Threat (SATT) software, Engineering Analysis Inc. (EAI) has just completed its annual compilation of the top twenty tornado-prone states, based on the latest National Weather Service data for tornadic activity from 1950 through 2011. Mississippi retains it ranking as the most tornado-prone state, followed by Alabama. The top twenty states are as follows:
|
Rank |
State . |
ACF (%) |
Annual DisturbedLand Area (Acres) |
|
1 |
Mississippi |
0.0753 |
22605 |
|
2 |
Alabama |
0.0679 |
22051 |
|
3 |
Arkansas |
0.0599 |
19961 |
|
4 |
Oklahoma |
0.0572 |
25138 |
|
5 |
Kansas |
0.0496 |
25971 |
|
6 |
Nebraska |
0.0407 |
20024 |
|
7 |
Iowa |
0.0402 |
14374 |
|
8 |
Indiana |
0.0386 |
8861 |
|
9 |
Tennessee |
0.0366 |
9655 |
|
10 |
Georgia |
0.0321 |
11896 |
|
11 |
Louisiana |
0.0321 |
8949 |
|
12 |
Illinois |
0.0297 |
10565 |
|
13 |
Wisconsin |
0.0280 |
9732 |
|
14 |
Missouri |
0.0218 |
9611 |
|
15 |
Ohio |
0.0216 |
5661 |
|
16 |
North Carolina |
0.0208 |
6484 |
|
17 |
South Carolina |
0.0206 |
3970 |
|
18 |
Kentucky |
0.0192 |
4882 |
|
19 |
Pennsylvania |
0.0162 |
4647 |
|
20 |
Minnesota |
0.0160 |
8152 |
The Annual Coverage Fraction (ACF) represents tornado probability based on the average fraction of land annually disturbed by tornadoes within the boundaries of the state from 1950 through 2011. This measure of tornado probability is consistent with the definition given in the FEMA Benefit-Cost Analysis Reengineering (BCAR) Tornado Safe Room Module Methodology Report. The annual disturbed land area can be obtained by multiplying the ACF by the area of the state.
Moisture Levels Rise Today
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
WARMER TODAY: Again this morning low clouds and fog has formed across Alabama, but that should burn off by mid-morning. Temperatures will rise into the 77 to 80 degree range across Alabama today with a partly sunny sky. We will mention the chance of a few showers this afternoon and tonight, but they should be pretty widely spaced. There might even be some thunder in spots.
TOMORROW: An upper trough will move through Alabama, but the main energy centers will be to the north and south, meaning rain here should be light and spotty. We will mention the chance of some light rain at times, with rain totals generally under a quarter of an inch. No severe weather, and probably no thunder. The models suggest the best chance of getting rain will come during the morning hours, with drier air slowly working into the state during the afternoon. And, there could be a few intervals of sunshine away from the showers. The high will be close to 70.
SUNDAY: Should be a sunny but cool day. Again, models have trended cooler; both the GFS and the NAM are printing a low of 44 early Sunday morning, with an afternoon high not too far from 70 degrees. Expect a cool north breeze of 10 to 20 mph.
NEXT WEEK: Cool mornings will headline the forecast early in the week as an intense surface low moves through the Northeast U.S. bringing the threat of heavy, wet snow from West Virginia up into interior parts of New England. The coolest morning, most likely, will be early Tuesday. The is printing 41 degrees for Birmingham, and if correct that of course would mean some 30s for colder spots over North Alabama, and just maybe some risk of light frost. Otherwise, the weather looks great with sunny mild days and those clear chilly nights. A few isolated showers could show up late in the week as moisture levels rise, but nothing organized is expected.
AT THE BEACH: Today will be partly to mostly sunny along the Gulf Coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores with a high in the mid 70s. Showers and a few storms are likely tomorrow, but the sun returns on Sunday. Most of next week looks great with sunny mild days and fair pleasant nights. Highs stay in the 70s.
See the Weather Xtreme video for graphics and details.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
I am speaking at The University of Alabama Institute for Rural Health Research’s Thirteenth Annual Rural Health Conference, this year called “Rural Rebound: Emergency Preparedness and Crisis Response”. It will be held at the Ferguson Center on the UA campus in Tuscaloosa. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day….
