Archive for May, 2012
Last Late Look
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Showers and thunderstorms evaporated off the radar tonight about as fast as donuts at a Mississippi State Severe Weather Symposium.
The RPM model tried to tell us that is what was going to happen, but being the stubborn meteorologists we are, we didn’t want to change forecasts in mid-stream earlier today.
The result has been mainly no rain for our brown lawns. The positive benefit was very little in the way of severe weather.
We still have the front back to the west of us, near the Mississippi River tonight. The RPM predicted that storms would redevelop ahead of the front over northern Mississippi and then weaken. That happened. It also thinks that showers will reorganize a bit after midnight and push into the state during the pre-dawn hours. Looks possible, especially with that weak surface low near Tunica, MS.
The showers will have one last hurrah around 10-11 a.m. in the vicinity of I-59 and push on southeastward. They will be out of the I-85 corridor by mid-afternoon.
It will be cooler and breezy on Friday with highs limited to the upper 70s along with a northwest wind averaging some 10-18 mph.
Storms Weakening
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Showers and thunderstorms have weakened tonight after spreading into Alabama.
The concern about severe weather has greatly diminished. We could still see a flare up somewhere along that leading edge of storms, but that is looking less likely as we go through time.
There have been a few warnings over West Central Alabama, but the storms’ bark was a lot worse than their bite.
The severe thunderstorm watch for North Alabama has been canceled and there are no warnings now. The slight risk that was in effect has been canceled as well.
Early morning showers and clouds spoiled the atmosphere for the storms that spread into the state. Severe weather parameters just weren’t very impressive, as the airmass was not very unstable and wind shear values were weak.
More storms are forming ahead of the cold front back over northern Mississippi. That front was approaching the Mississippi River at 8 p.m.
These storms should weaken as they move into Alabama during the early morning hours. What’s left of the showers will push to near I-59 by mid-morning and southeastward through early afternoon. They should clear the I-85 corridor by 2 o’clock or so.
We should see some sunshine by late morning, with a decent supply by early afternoon. It will be much cooler, with afternoon readings remaining in the upper 70s. Throw in a nice northwesterly wind behind the front, averaging 10-20 mph, and it will feel positively refreshing.
Get ready for a delightful night Friday night, with temperatures in the lower and middle 50s.
Saturday looks like a great day, with lots of sunshine and highs in the lower 80s. Saturday night won’t be bad, with lows in the upper 50s, but we will be pushing 90F by Sunday afternoon. Welcome back to reality.
Weather Update Just before 8 PM
At 7:50 pm, a surface low was located in the vicinity of Memphis, TN, moving northeast and expected to be in southern Indiana by 1 am. A cold front was situated from the surface low southwestward into northern Louisiana between Shreveport and Monroe. The front was fair easy to identify by both dew point drop and the wind shift along the front.
Well ahead of the front was a line of thunderstorms stretching from Nashville, TN, to about Mobile, AL. While some thunderstorms in the line have required warnings with some reports of wind damage, there were no warnings in effect in Alabama at this writing.
Damage reports so far in Alabama have been minimal with reports of several trees down in York (Sumter County) and a wind gust to 58 mph in Montgomery (Montgomery County) according to local storm reports from the Birmingham NWS office. Outside of Alabama, the SPC has reported over 80 wind damage reports, a number of those from Mississippi, and just over a dozen hail reports, most around 1 inch size.
Radar did indicate several pockets of substantial lightning occurrences in northern Tuscaloosa County and in Hale and eastern Marengo counties.
With the loss of daytime heating, the likelihood for additional severe thunderstorms is diminished, but people should still remain alert to rapidly changing weather conditions.
Preliminary rainfall based on radar estimates only show that many places along the Alabama/Mississippi line have received around 1 to 2 inches of rain with isolated spots receiving as much as 3 inches of rain. Looks like most areas will see around a half inch of rain.
-Brian-
From the Records Department
HOT ENOUGH FOR YOU?
113F at Yuma, AZ today was a record for the date by 3 degrees.
It was 119F at Furnace Creek in Death Valley on Thursday. This set a new record for the date, breaking the old record of 118F.
DRY ENOUGH FOR YOU?
No rain fell at McCarran International Airport in Las Vegas in May. Not terribly unusual, given that it has happened 7 times before. Their “normal” rainfall in May is only 0.12 inches.
Barstow had no rain in the month, the 13th time that has occurred.
At Needles,CA, same thing. There it has happened 45 times since 1893.
And I was complaining about how brown my grass is getting.
Marengo Storms Not Severe
Storms over Marengo County do not appear to be severe at this time. Lots of heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds and probably small hail right now.
They are lined up generally along US-43 from Demopolis to Sweet Water.
Linden is getting very heavy rain and probably small hail right now. The strongest cell will pass just south of Linden shortly.
These storms will lift toward Faunsdale, Dayton and Thomaston.
To the north, there’s a pretty strong storm over northwestern Tuscaloosa County. It will move northeast into Fayette and then Walker County. Areas around Berry and Oakman will experience this storm, which is in an area with less of a cap on the atmosphere.
Lightning, heavy rain and gusty winds will be the main threat. There could be a little pea sized hail.
