Archive for May 1st, 2012
Moisture Levels Slowly Rise
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
HOT MAY DAY: Huntsville has soared to 90 degrees at 3:00… other observations include 89 at Tuscaloosa, and 88 at Birmingham and Anniston. The sky is partly sunny, and there is no rain on radar around here.
SOME FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS: The 12Z model runs continue the idea of a tropical disturbance bringing a better chance of showers to Alabama on Thursday, and we will adjust the forecast accordingly.
Any showers tomorrow should be very widely spaced, but we now expect a general increase in the number of showers and thunderstorms Thursday. The most numerous ones will be south and west of Birmingham, with showers becoming harder to find over the northeast counties of Alabama. Temperatures will back down a bit due to the clouds and showers, with highs back in the low to mid 80s.
Friday will be generally dry and warm with a high in the mid to upper 80s along with a partly sunny sky.
WEEKEND PEEK: The upper ridge this weekend will be centered west of Alabama, meaning we will have a light northwest flow aloft. Those can be a little trick; any wave in the flow can bring a round of showers, and it is pretty hard to identify those days in advance. So, for now, we will roll with a summer-like forecast for the weekend, with a mix of sun and clouds Saturday and Sunday; highs in the upper 80s, and the risk of scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers.
AARON’S DREAM WEEKEND: Big weekend of racing ahead at the Talladega Superspeedway… Friday looks warm and dry, then for Saturday and Sunday will mention about a one in five risk of a brief, passing shower at the track, otherwise the sky will be partly sunny over the weekend with a high in the upper 80s. Widespread rain is not expected.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The GFS is still advertising a nice cool-down in the May 10-15 time frame as an upper trough forms over the eastern half of the nation. See the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details.
SUPER MOON: The biggest full moon of the year is due to arrive this weekend. The moon will officially become full Saturday (May 5) at 10:35 p.m. CDT. And because this month’s full moon coincides with the moon’s perigee — its closest approach to Earth — it will also be the year’s biggest. The moon will swing in 221,802 miles (356,955 kilometers) from our planet, offering skywatchers a spectacular view of an extra-big, extra-bright moon, nicknamed a supermoon. See details on space.com here.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
I had a great time today visiting the kids at Lynn High School in Winston County… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
Weather by the Numbers, 5/1/12
*83 percent of the cotton crop has been planted in Alabama according to the weekly report from the Alabama Department of Agriculture, Montgomery
* 25 percent of the corn is planted
* 3 percent (actually 2.99%) is how much of the Alabama land area that is already under a D-4 drought. D-4 is classed as “Exceptional” and only parts of three counties in the southeast corner of Alabama has that. Numerous counties in Central and West Alabama are OK although the past week was rainless.
* 2004 is the last year that Alabama had no tornadoes (zero!) in the month of April until this year. . So this April (2012) was exceptional especially when compared to April a year ago. Remember, March, April and May make up our prime tornado season (but not always).
* 106 was the hottest official temperature in the good ole USA yesterday and that was in Death Valley. Get used to hearing that because Death Valley will be mentioned many, many times. That location holds the all time USA record of 134 which is just two degrees short of the world record!
* 28 was the lowest in the Lower 48 this morning at Alamosa and Gunnison, Colo., and Klamath Falls and Lakeview, Ore. Coldest in Alaska was 1 above zero (yes, above zero!) at Anaktuvuk Pass and Noatak
* 6 is how many tornadoes were reported in the middle of the USA last evening., about four of them close to the Oklahoma-Kansas border. There were 75 hail reports, including some big hail that broke windows and windshields!
* 3 to 5 times is how much more salty Great Salt Lake is than the oceans. It is the largest lake west of the Mississippi River.
* 3 is how many real big bodies of water that Montana rivers drain into. (the Gulf of Mexico, Hudson Bay, and the Pacific Ocean.
* 47 degrees is how much the thermometer rose in only 7 minutes at Great Falls, Mont., on January 11, 1980, from a bitter cold 32 below zero to 15 above zero.
* 100 degrees is how much the temperature once plunged in only 24 hours at Browning, Mont, from 44 above zero to 56 below zero. That would make some of us brew a second pot of coffee and go looking for a coat!
* 1 is how many times I have missed receiving my daily paper in the 11 years we have lived in Northeast Trussville. Even that occurred on the day that the Birmingham Post Herald and Birmingham News swapped from morning to evening. I really admire people who deliver papers in all kinds of weather and way before daylight. I mail the one that brings my paper a thank-you check every Christmas. I am a newspaper junkie! (Yes, I know this is not a weather item)
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Summer-Like Weather Rolls Along
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
ON THE MAPS: A strong upper ridge (5880 meters at 500 mb) remains parked over the Deep South, meaning more very warm weather in the days ahead for Alabama. Temperatures today won’t change much from yesterday, so most places will see a high between 87 and 90 degrees. We actually might see a few showers on radar this afternoon, but they will be widely spaced, and most places won’t get wet. The specific chance of any one neighborhood getting wet is only about one in eight.
REST OF THE WEEK: Basically warm and mostly dry tomorrow through Friday. But, we do note the 06Z GFS shows and the 00Z NAM are now showing an increase in tropical moisture from the south, and are printing a higher chance of rain on Thursday. If this trend continues on the 12Z runs, we will need to hit the chance of rain a little harder on Thursday, but for now we will lean with a drier solution.
THE WEEKEND: Persistence is the best forecast. The ridge actually shifts west of Alabama, and will be centered over Texas, putting us in a light northwest flow aloft. We might see a little ripple of energy from time to time that could kick off a shower or storm in spots, but still this is not a pattern to suggest any widespread rain. We will just mention the standard risk of “widely scattered afternoon showers” both days with highs generally in the upper 80s.
AARON’S DREAM WEEKEND: Looks like the high will be around 88 degrees Friday, Saturday, and Sunday at the Talladega Superspeedway with a decent amount of sunshine each day. The chance of a shower at the track Friday, Saturday and Sunday is only in the 10 percent category. Bring the sunscreen.
AT THE BEACH: The sky will be mostly sunny along the Gulf Coast today from Panama City west to Gulf Shores with a high in the low to mid 80s. Showers and storms are possible tomorrow and Thursday as a plume of tropical moisture moves in from the southeast, but then expect lots of sunshine Friday through Sunday. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab last night was up to 79 degrees.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The GFS remains very consistent in the idea of the ridge pattern breaking down with cooler temperatures around here May 10-16… see the Weather Xtreme video for more details. The bad news is that we still see no serious rain event for the state for the next 15 days. And, we note rain deficits are growing across Alabama. At Birmingham, the total since January 1 is 14.82?, and the deficiency is 4.14?.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s episode that was recorded last night.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
I will be up in Winston County today doing a weather program at Lynn Elementary School… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
WeatherBrains 327: Left to Right You Bozo
WeatherBrains Episode 327 is now online (April 30, 2012). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!
Tonight’s guest WeatherBrain needs no introduction to our community of weather geeks. He is one of the premiere severe weather researchers in the world. His monograph, Severe Convective Storms, has a place on the bookshelf of nearly every serious meteorologist in the country. He appeared on show number 197 in November, 2009. Dr. Chuck Doswell, welcome back to WeatherBrains!
Dr. Doswell retired from Federal Service as of January 13, 2001. He has a half-time position as a senior research scientist with the Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies (CIMMS) at the University of Oklahoma.
Our guest panelist for this episode is Ryan Hoke, an undergraduate meteorology student at Mississippi State University and a weekend weather forecaster at WBBJ-TV Channel 7 in Jackson, TN. Ryan Hoke’s passion for weather started at a very early age with a childhood fear of thunderstorms which quickly developed into a full-fledged obsession with weather. Ryan joined a storm chasing vacation tour company during his junior year of high school in 2008. Since then, he has spent many weeks in the Great Plains guiding and driving customers to see tornadoes and severe weather. Ryan has seen over a dozen tornadoes and thrives off the thrill of the chase while relaying crucial storm reports to the National Weather Service and media. Storm chasing has been the ultimate field-learning experience, giving him an early edge in severe weather tracking and forecasting that most students never get. Even though he calls Louisville his hometown, his birthplace of Murfreesboro, TN, remains close at hand.
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
Our mail bag officer continues to hunt for a stooge willing victim to take over the most important position on the show. Of course, Kevin still does a stellar job at bringing all of the email notices to life!
From The Weather Center:
WeatherBrains 101: POES and GOES! These are the two primary satellite systems in use for weather observations, so for this episode of 101, we take a look at some of the advantages and disadvantages for each method of observing Planet Earth.
TWIWH: Bill Murray looks back at the week of May 1st which included the Greensburg Tornado.
Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.
Web Sites from Episode 327:
High Instability, a show with Gene Roden and Chuck Doswell
Happy Birthday to SkyDaver!
Chandra Clark Video on media coverage from April 27, 2011
Picks of the Week:
JB Elliott – Snow Deficit as of March 30, 2012
Ryan Hoke – Chaser Problems
Bill Murray – Video of Phil Campbell Tornado, April 27, 2011
Brian Peters – Chuck Doswell’s Blog on Tornadoes of 2011
Kevin Selle – Stewart’s Fountain Classic Flavors
James Spann – ABC 3340 Video from April 27, 2011
JP Spann – Great Satellite View of Storms April 30, 2012
The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable weather geeks like JB Elliott, Kevin Selle, and Bill Murray. Rounding out the cast is the quiet, humble, and extremely handsome Brian Peters who lands his Learjet once a week to grace the show. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.
