Archive for May 4th, 2012
Hot May Weekend Ahead
**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today**
THIS AFTERNOON: As expected, morning clouds have given way to a partly sunny afternoon across Alabama with temperatures generally in the mid 80s. The only showers across the state are down in Barbour County in Southeast Alabama.
OUR WEEKEND: Not much change in our forecast thinking… see the morning Weather Xtreme video for details. Look for a high in the 87 to 90 degree range tomorrow and Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds each day. There will be enough moisture for scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms both days. The chance of any one spot getting wet is about one in three, and most of the storms will come from 2:00 p.m. until 7:00 p.m. However, we will have to watch for thunderstorms areas northwest of Alabama; those will move to the southeast and can often bring a surprise in this pattern with a ridge to the west and a weak northwest flow aloft with occasional weak ripples of energy moving through the flow.
AARON’S DREAM WEEKEND: The weather will be very warm at Talladega this race weekend, with highs between 87 and 90 degrees each day over the weekend. A few showers and storms will be popping up in scattered spots during the afternoon and evening hours; the chance of a storm at the Superspeedway is in the 30 percent range tomorrow and Sunday. If a storm does drift over the track, the rain shouldn’t last more than 30 minutes or so. You will need sunscreen.
AT THE BEACH: Expect partly sunny days, and fair nights along the coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores. A few widely scattered showers are possible each day, but rain won’t be a big issue through early next week with about 7 to 9 hours of sunshine each day. Highs will be in the 80s, and the sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab early this morning was 77 degrees.
NEXT WEEK: Expect scattered to numerous showers and storms Monday and Tuesday, followed by a nice surge of cooler and drier Wednesday through Friday as an upper trough forms over the eastern third of the nation. Highs will drop into the 70s, with lows in the 50s. Cooler spots should reach the 40s early Thursday and Friday morning as continental air will cover the Deep South. See the ECMWF depiction of the upper air flow at 500 mb next Wednesday…
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
I had a great time today visiting with the kids at Thorsby Elementary School in Chilton County… look for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday… my next Weather Xtreme video will be posted bright and early Monday morning by 7:00 a.m. Enjoy the weekend!
Thursday Rain Totals for Alabama
Our two-day rain event turned out to be real significant, and possibly the most beneficial rain in many moons. Speaking of moons, Super Moon arrives Saturday night. There are plenty of stories about that. Here is a link that might help:
http://www.space.com/
But back to the rain story. Yesterday morning, Brian posted a list of Alabama amounts for Wednesday. Here is a followup with Thursday totals:
0.56 Huntsville
1.12 Cullman Ag Station
0.44 Centreville
1.31 Clayton
0.65 Talladega
0.73 Bessemer0.
0.80 Haleyville
0.45 Helena
2.15 southwest of Montgomery
0.62 Hurtsboro
0.50 Childersburg/Talladega
0.76 Cordova
0.68 Hackneyville
1.62 Horseshoe Bend (an interesting place to visit)
0.97 Oak Grove (West Jefferson County)
0.83 Rockford
1.17 Evergreen
1.75 Brewton
0.41 Dauphin Island
0.60 Bessemer (24 hour) but storm total 1.64 (Jeff Drake, 3340 Skywatcher)
Five Years Ago Tonight: The Greensburg, KS EF5 Tornado
On the morning of May 4, 2007, it was evident that an outbreak of severe weather was imminent across the Plains states of the U.S. The Storm Prediction center realized the threat and posted a Moderate Risk outlook for the region from the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma into Kansas and Nebraska. A powerful upper level trough was over the West with strong low pressure over Colorado with very moist Gulf of Mexico air being drawn northward. Instability values were sky high, with CAPE values running as high as 5,500 j/kg! An approaching dry line triggered supercell thunderstorms during the evening from north Texas to southwestern Kansas. With plenty of wind shear, the storms quickly became severe.
One tremendous supercell storm formed about 5 p.m. in the Texas Panhandle and moved northeast. CAPE values were around 5,200 j/kg over Southwest Kanasas, and the 0-2 km helicity was 240 m2s2. This made the EHI 7.8! Readings over 2 are nearly always associated with big tornadoes. The storm that this environment produced would bear twenty tornadoes during its long life, including four massive tornadoes that were on the ground continuously for three hours.
The largest tornado in the family touched down in Comanche County, Kansas at 9:03 p.m. and crossed into Kiowa County a short time later. The first tornado warning for Comanche County was issued at 8:13 p.m. The first tornado warning for Kiowa County was issued at 8:55 p.m. Another warning was issued at 9:19 p.m. that specifically mentioned Greensburg and stated that it was a confirmed tornado. A call was placed to Kiowa County. Sirens started sounding.
Here is the NOAA Weather Radio message for that warning…
At 9:28, a powerful severe weather statement was issued and Kiowa County was called for the second time. At 9:37 p.m., spotters said the large and dangerous tornado was just five miles south of Greensburg. Meteorologist Mike Umscheid pulled the trigger on a chilling Tornado Emergency Message.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
941 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007
KSC097-050300-
/O.CON.KDDC.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-070505T0300Z/
KIOWA KS-
941 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007
A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
KIOWA COUNTY
A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR GREENSBURG.
AT 937 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF GREENSBURG…MOVING NORTH AT 20
MPH.
A VIOLENT TORNADO WAS ON A DIRECT PATH FOR PORTIONS OF GREENSBURG…
ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF TOWN. TAKE IMMEDIATE TORNADO
PRECATIONS…THIS IS AN EMERGENCY SITUATION FOR GREENSBURG!!
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.
LAT…LON 3749 9936 3745 9929 3760 9901 3764 9936
$$
UMSCHEID
We were monitoring the storm right here in Birmingham. I posted several items on our blog before it happened. Here is a link to one of the messages…
This is the radar from minutes before the horrible storm tore apart Greensburg.
The massive tornado entered the south side of the town of Greensburg at 9:45 p.m. It would plow directly through the heart of the town and it’s tree lined streets. It took several minutes for the giant lawnmower of a storm to roar through Greensburg, destroying ninety five percent of the town. When it was all over, virtually nothing was left standing in the 1.7 mile wide path.
The Greensburg tornado was the first to be rated as an EF5 on the new enhanced Fujita scale was implemented and the first tornado rated at the top of the scale since the Oklahoma City tornado in May 1999. Winds were estimated at 205 mph.
The warnings from the NWS, dissemination from the media and coordination with emergency management were superb and sirens sounded twenty minutes before the twister struck. Countless lives were spared by the advance warnings, but still eleven people died in the horrific destruction, some in basements. The disaster presented town officials and residents with a unique opportunity to rebuild, and leaders are choosing to do it in a green manner using environmentally friendly practices.
Here is a link to the NWS Dodge City’s web page on the tornado:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/ddc/News/Greensburg/Greensburg_1year_later.pdf
Meteorologist Mike Umscheid was the forecaster that issued the warnings…he has an excellent presentation on the storm…be advised it is a 27 mb download…
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/ddc/News/Greensburg/GreensburgPresentation_web_Umscheid.ppt
Super Moon Tomorrow Night
The biggest full moon of the year is due to arrive this weekend.
The moon will officially become full tomorrow at 10:35 p.m. CDT. And because this month’s full moon coincides with the moon’s perigee — its closest approach to Earth — it will also be the year’s biggest.
The moon will swing in 221,802 miles (356,955 kilometers) from our planet, offering skywatchers a spectacular view of an extra-big, extra-bright moon, nicknamed a supermoon.
Source SPACE.com: All about our solar system, outer space and exploration
Warm, Humid Weekend Ahead
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
TODAY: The sky is generally cloudy across Alabama early this morning with some patchy fog; the sky will become partly sunny during the day with a high in the mid 80s. The deep moisture axis has shifted to the east, so most Alabama communities will be dry.
THE WEEKEND: The weather will be very warm and humid tomorrow and Sunday, with afternoon highs in the 87 to 90 degree range with a mix of sun and clouds. No doubt there will be sufficient moisture for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms both days. The best chance will come during the afternoon and evening hours, just like a summer day. But, we will be on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge with a northwest flow aloft, and we will have to watch for any MCS (mesoscale convective system, or organized mass of storms) that tries to move in here from the northwest. Trying to forecast MCS development and movement far in advance in this kind of pattern is difficult; we will just have to watch radar trends.
AARON’S DREAM WEEKEND: The weather will be very warm at Talladega this race weekend, with highs between 87 and 90 degrees each day through Sunday. We don’t expect any rain around the track today, but widely scattered showers and storms are possible tomorrow. A brief passing shower or storm is possible Sunday, but really widespread rain is not expected. The chance of a shower or storm at the track is 10 percent today, 20 percent tomorrow, and 30 percent Sunday. If a shower or thunderstorm does drift over the Superspeedway, the rain won’t last very long.
AT THE BEACH: Expect partly sunny days, and fair nights along the coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores this weekend. A few widely scattered showers are possible each day, but rain won’t be a big issue through early next week with about 7 to 9 hours of sunshine each day. Highs will be in the 80s, and the sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab early this morning was 77 degrees.
NEXT WEEK: Expect warm and muggy conditions to continue on Monday and Tuesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms both days; highs hold in the 80s. Then, a deep upper trough is forecast to form over the eastern third of the nation at mid-week, and that will push a nice surge of cooler and drier air into Alabama Wednesday through Friday. The latest data from the GFS hints at highs in the 70s on these three days, with cool morning lows down in the 47-54 degree range. That will be a real breath of fresh air.
We do note the ECMWF develops a deep upper low in the base of the upper trough, which might keep some clouds around and maybe a touch of light rain on Wednesday and Thursday, but for now we will discount that solution and roll with mostly sunny days and clear cool nights Wednesday through Friday. See the Weather Xtreme video for details and graphics.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
I will be doing a weather program at Thorsby Elementary School in Chilton County today… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
