Archive for May 19th, 2012
In a Tropical Cyclone Update just before 6 pm, the National Hurricane Center noted that reports from a ship near the center of Alberto indicated that the cyclone was stronger than previously estimated. Based primarily on pressure date, the maximum sustained wind was estimated to be 60 mph.
NHC does not expect much change in strength over the next couple of days, and the increased intensity does not require any change to the track forecast.
Here is the track forecast for the next five days.
Showers and storms have developed over Northeast Alabama this afternoon.
They are mainly overJackson, DeKalb and Marshall Counties. Others are trying to form over Blount County north of Oneonta and Altoona.
They are pushing southwest. The stronger cells could produce small hail and gusty winds.
The first named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season has formed fourteen days early.
It has been given the name Alberto.
Top winds are 45 mph and the central pressure is 1007 millibars.
Alberto is expected to continue meandering southwestward but will turn gradually to the north.
It could impact North Carolina on Tuesday and then it will head toward New England, becoming subtropical as it does.
Sea surface temperatures are marginal for some development. Wind shear is relatively light, which will allow for some development. But the storm is surrounded by relatively dry air and its circulation is small, so it will be vulnerable to the effects of the drier air.
So, significant strengthening is not anticipated. Alberto should top out at about 50 mph intensity.
Beautiful afternoon across Central Alabama with temperatures well into the 80s with a range of 82 to 85 for the current values around 2 pm. Below is the view from space of the Southeast US. Nice cumulus field present with a nice area of subsidence (sinking air) stretching from about Hamilton southward not quite to the coast. Subsidence also present over much of Georgia near the developing system just off the South Carolina coast.
Radar not showing anything at this time in Alabama. In fact, the only showers present were located just north of Chattanooga moving generally southwestward. Seems to be a little more motion than we saw with storms yesterday. The storms were firing along a small short wave that was rotating around the disturbance off the South Carolina coast. These showers could venture far enough southward to affect the Tennessee Valley but probably not reach into Central Alabama. Seems unlikely that much else will develop for us but we haven’t hit our high for the day yet, so an isolated storm or two is still not completely impossible.
There was a good deal of lightning showing up in those storms in Tennessee.
It’s a beautiful day across Central Alabama on this Doo Dah Day 2012.
Temperatures are warming nicely through the 70s heading for afternoon highs in the upper 80s. There is not a cloud in the sky on visible satellite photos. A few cumulus clouds will develop this afternoon, and there is a small chance (less than 10%) that you could see a shower or storm at your event. Humidities are not too bad, but remember the sunscreen.
Looking to the east, your eye is drawn to that tight circle of clouds off the Carolina coast. It is a low pressure system that has really gotten better organized this morning. The NHC has upped the chance that it could become a tropical depression or tropical storm to 50% over the next 48 hours as it moves slowly southwestward.
The buoy at Frying Pan Shoals south of Wilmington has been consistently reporting sustained winds of 35 mph with gusts to near 40 mph. Waves running about 8 feet.
This or another low is expected to move northward over the next day or and eventually make a move toward New England, where they are expecting rain by midweek.
Here is the text of the Special Tropical Weather Outlook just out from the NHC.
ABNT20 KNHC 191556
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1155 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS…AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE…AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE…50 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM…
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE
ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY…IF NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
BTW: did you hear that NOAA has appointed a new Director of the National Hurricane Center to replace Bill Read, who is retiring? It is Dr. Rick Knabb, who has been the Tropical Expert at The Weather Channel for the past two years.