Archive for May 25th, 2012
Beryl Makes a Debut
As Bill noted in the post below this one, the satellite imagery along the Southeast US coast showed that the depression was becoming more clearly defined. In a special advisory released at 9:42 PM CDT, the National Hurricane Center has named the subtropical storm Beryl and a tropical storm warning has been issued for portions of the US coastline from the Volusia/Brevard county line in Northeast Florida northward along the Georgia coast to Edisto Beach, SC. A tropical storm watch was also posted from Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC.
While the system is moving north around 9 mph right now, it is expected to turn toward the southwest on Saturday and move into North Florida or the Georgia coast on Sunday.
Tropical storm force wind extended outward about 140 miles from the center of the storm which was about 305 miles east of Charleston, SC.
-Brian-
Full text of the advisory:
WTNT32 KNHC 260242
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012
…SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHEWESTERN ATLANTIC…
…TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST…
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…32.5N 74.8W
ABOUT 305 MI…490 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST…FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST. THE
STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H…BUT BERYL
SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF
BERYL SHOULD BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES IN THE WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB…29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST IN THE
WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEAST FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
STORM SURGE…HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THESE TIDES MAY CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING.
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOCAL FORECAST
OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
RAINFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA…GEORGIA…AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tropical Depression Not Far From Forming
Looking at a satellite picture of the Southeast, your eyes are drawn to low pressure off the coast of the Carolinas near Charleston.
This low continues to become better organized and will probably be crowned a tropical depression later tonight.
That low will likely become Tropical Storm Beryl very soon. It is expected to turn back to the southwest, making landfall late tomorrow somewhere along the coast of Georgia or Northeast Florida, most likely near Jacksonville.
It will weaken as it crosses the peninsula of the Sunshine State. It will emerge into the Gulf briefly before turning back to the northeast early in the week. It will hug the coast as it exits to the northeast.
A few showers and storms will make it into the Florida Panhandle around Panama City on Saturday. They will increase a bit on Sunday and edge just a little further west and northwest, working into Southeast Alabama and over to Orange Beach and Pensacola. Scattered showers and storms will continue to affect the Gulf Coast into midweek.
Hot Memorial Day Weekend
**We are on holiday schedule… one Weather Xtreme video per day through Monday; we will get back to the “two a day” schedule Tuesday. You can see the morning Weather Xtreme video via the player on the right side of the blog**
HEATING UP: Temperatures are actually a little below forecast levels at 2:00… Birmingham was still in the upper 80s with 88… one of the hottest places in Alabama is Muscle Shoals with 91. If you want some real heat, how about Tallahassee, FL with 98 degrees at 2:00. No rain on radar across the northern half of Alabama at mid-afternoon.
OUR WEEKEND: No real change in our thinking… lots of sun tomorrow and Sunday with highs in the low to mid 90s. No doubt our hottest weather so far this year. Just a slight risk of an afternoon shower Monday with a high in the upper 80s.
NEXT WEEK: The weather will greatly depend on the future of the tropical disturbance off the South Atlantic Coast of the U.S. Most models bring it toward the Georgia coast in 72 hours or so…
You can see the system is expected to move into Georgia, and then make a 180 degree turn back to the northeast before really getting into Alabama. This leaves us on the dry side of the circulation, but we will still mention some chance of scattered showers and storms by Tuesday and Wednesday.
The 12Z GFS continues the idea of an upper low forming north of here late next week, with cooler temperatures and a better chance of rain at times by Thursday and Friday. See the morning Weather Xtreme video for the graphics.
SEC BASEBALL: The annual SEC baseball tournament continues through Sunday at Regions Park in Hoover; if you are headed to some of the games, you will need the sunscreen, and something cool to drink. The weather still looks dry through the weekend with afternoon highs in the 90 to 95 degree range.
GULF COAST WEATHER: Expect mostly sunny days and fair nights on the Gulf Coast between Panama City and Gulf Shores through Sunday, with daily highs in the 80s. A few widely scattered showers and storms will show up by Memorial Day, but widespread rain is not expected. Sea water temperatures remain generally in the low 80s.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
Have a great Memorial Day weekend… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday!
Warmest Temperatures so far in 2012
The forecast continues to focus on the establishment of a strong upper ridge which will bring some hot weather to our area for the Memorial Day weekend. Here is a quick review of the warmest temperatures so far for 2012 across the area.
| Station | Date | High |
| Birmingham | May 1 | 90 |
| Tuscaloosa | May 1 | 91 |
| Anniston | May 24 | 89 |
| Montgomery | Apr 30 | 92 |
| Helena | May 1 | 92 |
Stay cool!
-Brian-
Eye On The Tropics
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
HOT HOLIDAY WEEKEND: We will deal with the hottest weather so far this year over the next three days as we begin the Memorial Day weekend. We project a high in the low 90s today, followed by mid 90s tomorrow and Sunday. Last time it was this hot was September 3, 2011 when we reached 97.
Here are the record highs for the next three days…
Today May 25 95 (1962)
Saturday May 26 97 (1962)
Sunday May 27 98 (1962)
Doubtful we break any of these, but we will be fairly close. I was only 6 years old in 1962 and don’t recall that heat wave, but it sure looked nasty.
An upper high overhead will mean mostly mostly sunny days and fair nights. Moisture levels will creep up, and we might consider the mention of isolated afternoon showers Sunday, but for now we will leave it out of the forecast.
NEXT WEEK: Heat levels will come down, and rain chances will go up, but the amount and timing of the rain all depends on the tropical mischief off the South Atlantic coast of the U.S. that we are watching this morning.
BERYL? NHC has given the system a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone, so this could very well become Tropical Storm Beryl in coming days. But, most intensity guidance keeps this a tropical depression. One way or another, the main issue will be the rain it generates, and this should wet down coastal sections of the Carolinas and Georgia over the weekend.
Models are actually in pretty good agreement now… they move this northeast today, then a sharp turn to the west follows with landfall around the Georgia coast in 72-96 hours. No doubt this could bring deeper tropical moisture into Alabama Tuesday and Wednesday.
The 00Z GFS suggests the best coverage of rain could very well be on Tuesday; it tries to bring some drier air in here Wednesday, followed by another good chance of rain at the end of the week with a deep upper low forming just north of here. See the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics and details.
SEC BASEBALL: The annual SEC baseball tournament continues through Sunday at Regions Park in Hoover; if you are headed to some of the games, you will need the sunscreen, and something cool to drink. The weather still looks dry through the weekend with afternoon highs in the 90 to 95 degree range.
GULF COAST WEATHER: Expect mostly sunny days and fair nights on the Gulf Coast between Panama City and Gulf Shores through Sunday, with daily highs in the 80s. A few widely scattered showers and storms will show up by Memorial Day, but widespread rain is not expected. Sea water temperatures remain generally in the low 80s.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
We are now on a holiday schedule… so one Weather Xtreme video per day through Monday. I will post an afternoon update on the tropics and our weekend a little later… enjoy the day and the weekend!
