Archive for May 30th, 2012
Rain/Storms Over West Alabama
Storms over Sumter County have weakened below severe limits, but they are still producing heavy rain and lots of lightning. The weakening trend should continue as the storms move into drier air over the eastern two-thirds of the state. Some light rain could reach Tuscaloosa and Birmingham, but we don’t expect anything heavy like last night.
The more widespread storm event comes tomorrow night… scroll down for the afternoon forecast discussion…
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Parts of Sumter County
STORM REPORTS
5:32…Nickel size hail at Boyd. Report from Fire Dept.
ORIGINAL POST
Here is the polygon showing the area under warning:
The storm may produce quarter size hail and damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph.
Active Weather To The West
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THIS AFTERNOON: A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for much of North and Central Mississippi this afternoon thanks to an MCS (mesoscale convective system) over western Mississippi; these storms are crossing I-55 now, and have prompted a number of severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for counties over the western part of Mississippi.
But, here in Alabama, the weather is hot and dry on our end of the state with temperatures generally in the low 90s. Birmingham reported 92 degrees at 3:00. We note a few severe storms have formed near the coast over Mobile and Baldwin Counties, and they are barely moving.
The storms to the west are moving slowly in our direction, but the air is pretty dry around here (the dew point at Birmingham has dropped to 48 at 3:00), and there is reasonable chance these storms will begin to fall apart as they try and cross the border this evening. But, as you know, when it comes to thunderstorms you have to expect the unexpected, so we will keep an eye on radar trends.
The big action will be well to the west this evening and tonight; SPC maintains a moderate risk of severe weather for much of Oklahoma and some of the adjacent states. Hail is the biggest threat, although a few tornadoes are certainly possible.
TOMORROW/FRIDAY: It still looks like most of the day tomorrow will be hot and dry with a high in the low 90s, much like today. Then, an organized band of rain and storms will move into the state tomorrow night, and SPC maintains a “slight risk” of severe weather for about the northern two-thirds of Alabama. The best helicity values will be north of Alabama, so again it looks like the tornado threat here will be low; the main risk will come from hail and high wind.
The heat will break on Friday; both the NAM and the GFS are printing a high in the upper 70s because of the morning rain.
In terms of timing, models now generally agree the main threat of strong to severe storms will come from about 6:00 p.m. tomorrow through 9:00 a.m. Friday. The sky should clear during the midday hours Friday, and Friday night will be delightful with a clear sky and cooler temperatures… we should reach the mid 50s by daybreak Saturday.
OUR WEEKEND: Saturday will be a very nice early June day. Lots of sun, low humidity, and a high only in the low to mid 80s. Looks like we will need to insert a chance of widely scattered showers Sunday afternoon as moisture begins to return. Sunday’s high will be a tad warmer, in the mid to upper 80s.
NEXT WEEK: Looks like we will have the standard risk of scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms Monday and Tuesday… the 12Z GFS then shows a back door cold front giving us a good round of showers and storms on Wednesday, followed by cooler air. A good chance we will see temperatures here below average for the first 7 days of June.
BERYL: The tropical depression is east of Wilmington, North Carolina and is slowly moving back over the Atlantic. Looks like a possible tornado damaged homes near Jacksonville, NC this morning in a spiral band around the system…. Beryl will accelerate east away from the U.S. in coming days as a post-tropical storm. See the Weather Xtreme video for more details and all of the graphics.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s new episode.
I will be taking a couple of days off… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow through Sunday; I will be back in service Monday of next week!
Gulf of Mexico Light Show
Thanks to Jim Culpepper for these images… he writes…
“James,
Some pictures from a severe thunderstorm that rolled across Orange Beach and out into the Gulf around 7:30 p.m. on Monday, May 21, 2012. The three girls walking out onto the beach in the first photo beat a hasty retreat after the first lightning strike (what were they thinking?!).”
Mostly Dry Today; Storms By Tomorrow Night
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
HOT AGAIN TODAY: The weather is calm this morning, with some fog in spots across Alabama following some overnight storms that weren’t expected, and packed quite a punch. Clearly a short wave aided in the development of thunderstorms last night that moved from northwest to southeast across our state, producing some hail, and strong gusty winds that resulted in scattered power outages and a few downed trees and power lines. Yet another reminder… when it comes to thunderstorms, expect the unexpected.
We are basically in-between weather systems today, so we figure most places will be just hot and dry with a high up in the low 90s. We might even see some mid 90s over West Alabama this afternoon; the chance of any one spot getting wet is only in the 10 percent bracket.
TO THE WEST: SPC defines a moderate risk of severe weather today for parts of Oklahoma and extreme North Texas; hail is the main threat, although a few tornadoes can’t be ruled out. This wave will impact Alabama in about 36 hours.
TOMORROW/FRIDAY: Models are in much better agreement this morning. The main window for showers and storms will come from about 9:00 p.m. tomorrow through 12:00 noon Friday; most of the day tomorrow will be dry and hot with a high in the low 90s. SPC has defined their standard “slight risk” of severe weather for about the northern half of Alabama during this time frame, and the models have trended a little northward with the best dynamics on the last few runs. So, our idea looks good with the main threat coming from hail and strong straight line winds; the tornado threat for now seems rather minimal (although one or two tornadoes can’t be ruled out completely). I get the idea the worst of the weather will actually come late tomorrow night into the early morning hours Friday. Could very well be another night of burning the midnight oil in the weather office.
The rain will end from northwest to southeast during the day Friday. On the positive side, rain amounts of 1 inch look likely, with isolated amounts to two inches. Something we need for sure.
THE WEEKEND: Saturday promises to be simply delightful for an early June day. Low humidity, lots of sun. We start the day in the 50s, and will wind up with a high in the low 80s. Sunday looks generally dry, although the 00Z GFS hints we might need to mention a small risk of a shower or two late in the day over North Alabama as moisture returns. Sunday will be warmer with a high in the upper 80s. See the Weather Xtreme video for all the graphics and details.
BERYL: The tropical depression this morning is just northeast of Charleston, SC, and will move back into the Atlantic today on the journey east, away from Alabama. Heavy rain continues in places like Wilmington, NC this morning. The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.
GULF COAST WEATHER: Just a few widely scattered showers and storms for the Gulf Coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores through Friday; about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day. Then, the weekend looks great with a good supply of sunshine Saturday and Sunday. Highs remain in the 80s, and the sea water temperatures are running in the 80 to 83 degree range.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s new episode.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
