Archive for June 6th, 2012
Mostly Dry Through Friday
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
QUIET AFTERNOON: Nothing on the radar over the northern half of Alabama this afternoon. Temperatures are pretty comfortable for June… readings range from 80 at Anniston to 86 at Tuscaloosa. Dewpoints are near 50 over the Tennessee Valley, but the air is moist over South Alabama and a few scattered storms are seen near the Gulf Coast at mid-afternoon.
Our weather won’t change too much tomorrow and Friday. Partly to mostly sunny warm days and fair nights… the risk of a shower is so tiny we won’t mention it for now over the northern counties… but scattered showers and storms are possible over the southern part of Alabama. Highs will be in the 86-89 degree range.
WEEKEND FORECAST: The 12Z GFS continue to show an increase in moisture levels over the weekend, especially on Sunday. No, it won’t be a wash-out, but just understand we will be dealing with scattered showers and thunderstorms both days; showers should be most numerous on Sunday. Otherwise, look for a mixture of sun and clouds Saturday and Sunday with highs holding in the 86 to 89 degree range. No way to tell you know exactly when and where the showers and storms will form; we just will have to watch radar trends. The best chance of getting wet will come during the afternoon and evening hours.
NEXT WEEK: Moist air stays in place, and we will maintain a chance of showers and storms over the first half of the week. The storms could be fairly numerous on Tuesday and Wednesday thanks to an approaching cold front (that won’t have enough push to make it through Alabama). Highs will be in the low to mid 80s, below average for June in Alabama.
TROPICS: The Atlantic basin is quiet and tropical storm formation is not expected through the weekend.
AT THE BEACH: Each day through Sunday there will be the risk of scattered showers and storms, but keep in mind that is very routine for the Central Gulf Coast in summer. Expect about 5 to 7 hours of sunshine each day away from those storms, and highs will hold in the 80s. The sea water temperature this afternoon at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 85 degrees.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
Forecast for D-Day
Image courtesy of http://www.history.army.mil/
As German soldiers peered out from their bunkers along the French coast on the morning of June 5, 1944, they knew there was no way that the long awaited invasion by the Allies was coming that day. High winds, heavy rains and huge waves were pounding the beaches all along the English Channel. June 5th had been the day that the invasion was scheduled to launch. But Allied weather forecasters had accurately predicted the terrible weather that occurred. If June 5th had been D-Day, the results would have been terrible.
So the forecast had been accurate, staving off a disaster, but Allied commanders were nervous. The landings depended on a complex set of factors, including tides and moonlight among other things. The early June window for invasion was about to close and would not reopen for two weeks. The element of surprise was a huge factor, and waiting an two additional weeks would reduce the Allies chance of success. So as you can see, weather was critical in the decision making process.
In April 1944, a joint Allied team of British and American forecasters had been established to create five day forecasts for commanders. A five day forecast was something that was unheard of at that time. Their first job was to pick a time that climatologically would be favorable for the invasion. They chose early June. June 5th would be the day. But weather maps on June 3rd and 4th showed a depressing situation for forecasters and military leaders. Several low pressure systems were poised to move across the invasion area over the next several days.
Allied forecasters had an advantage since their forces controlled most of the North Atlantic and weather data was more plentiful to them than to the Germans. This data revealed a small window of better weather that would occur on Tuesday, June 6th as a small ridge moved over the area between two low pressure troughs. The decision was made to go then.
Allied Forces landed on the beaches of Normandy on the morning of June 6th, 1944, opening the long-awaited second front against the Germans and spelling the beginning of the end of World War II. The Germans were completely caught by surprise. Their military leaders believed that the Allies would wait until there six good days of weather before crossing the channel. At the end of the first day, the Allies had suffered 12,000 casualties. Commanders had expected as many as 75,000.
Weather forecasting had played an important role in the success of the operation, but a closer look reveals that the German forecast was actually better than the Allied forecast. The German predictions were actually closer to the actual wave heights, which were critical to the success of conveying men and materiel to the beaches on landing craft. The Germans relaxed their vigilance because of that forecast. Commander Irwin Rommel was away from the field. The wave heights were actually above the critical threshold set by the Allies for invasion. If their forecast had been more correct, they might not have made the fortuitous decision to launch on June 6th.
It really makes you stop to consider the relationship between accuracy and value in a forecast and how it is interpreted by its end users. Dr. Harold Brooks eloquently discussed this in episode 332 of WeatherBrains on June 4, 2012. Listen to the podcast.
A final note: if the invasion had not occurred on the 6th, the next window of opportunity standpoint would have been the 17th through the 21st. A storm of historic proportions during that time could have proven disastrous for the invading forces.
Drier Air Settles Into North Alabama
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
LOWER HUMIDITY: Today promises to be a pleasant day for the northern half of Alabama, with ample sunshine and lower humidity. Dewpoints are down into the low 50s over the Tennessee Valley, and could drop even more during the warmth of the day. Most locations will see a high in the mid 80s this afternoon; showers and storms will be confined to the far southern counties of the state. We note some storms early this morning near Gulf Shores and Orange Beach.
TOMORROW/FRIDAY: These days should remain generally dry; a few isolated showers might pop up during the afternoon hours, but the risk of any one spot getting wet is so small that we won’t mention it for now. Expect highs in the mid to upper 80s with a partly to mostly sunny sky both days.
OUR WEEKEND: Models continue to show increased moisture levels, and accordingly we will adjust the forecast a bit to bring in a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms both days with a high in the 85 to 88 degree range. No, it won’t rain all weekend, but just keep in mind you might have to deal with one or two passing showers or storms… maybe even a heavy downpour. We will have intervals of sunshine both days. Unfortunately no way of knowing now exactly when or where the showers and storms will form due to the scattered nature. We will just watch to watch radar trends when they get on the board.
NEXT WEEK: A moist airmass remains in place, and a weakening front will approach by mid-week, so we will maintain a chance of scattered showers and storms through at least Wednesday with highs in the 80s. The good news is that we see no really hot weather for summer for at least the next 15 days…. temperatures will remain generally at or below average values. Confirmation that a warm March/April doesn’t necessarily mean a hot summer.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
