Archive for June 19th, 2012
WTNT33 KNHC 192053
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032012
500 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
…ANOTHER HIGH-LATITUDE TROPICAL STORM FORMS…NO THREAT TO LAND…
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 560 MI…905 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES HAS ACQUIRED
AT 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 57.7 WEST. CHRIS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/H. AN EASTWARD MOTION
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST…THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. CHRIS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB…29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM EDT.
The latest edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme Video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme Video on iTunes by clicking here.
The overall pattern for Central Alabama is stuck in a rut with the combination of surface high pressure situated along the East Coast and an upper level ridge over the eastern half of the country. The ridge will be building stronger over the next several days allowing high temperatures to climb into the lower and mid 90s. We could be verging on the upper 90s as we head into the weekend and early next week.
The upper ridge will build stronger through Friday but then breakdown a bit as a strong trough moves through the Canadian provinces. That trough moves through quickly so the ridge only dampens Friday and Saturday, but it may be enough to bring a front into the Ohio River Valley. There is also a lot of moisture over the Florida peninsula, but it looks like neither of these will get to us but this is our best shot at some isolated showers. I still think while it is our best shot that most of us stay dry.
The ridge builds strong again over the Central Plains behind that trough bringing us back on the edge of the ridge and allowing temperatures to stay in the mid 90s, perhaps verging close to the upper 90s.
SPC has a slight risk for today from Northeast Nebraska into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan ahead of the trough moving through Canada. And the NHC is now watching two areas in the tropics, one in the North Atlantic and another area in the central Caribbean. Conditions do not appear favorable for development of either of these right now.
The GFS and ECMWF models are in good agreement on both position and strength of the ridge especially as we get into the weekend. There have been some differences but they have come much closer together in their solutions.
The ridge weakens somewhat as we head into week 2 and early July. That is certainly a good sign to keep us out of the extreme heat. But the ridge is still with us so we can only hope for the return of some moisture to put scattered showers in the forecast.
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I expect to post the next Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Wednesday morning. Have a great day and Godspeed.
WeatherBrains Episode 334 is now online (June 18, 2012). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!
Our Guest WeatherBrain for this episode is Daryl Herzmann, from Iowa State University. Daryl earned a degree in meteorology from Iowa State in 2001, so he is an Iowa State Cyclone! He has been working in the Meteorology Department at Iowa State since his graduation.
He has worked diligently to collect environmental data supporting agricultural activities in the Hawkeye State.
And joining us as a special guest WeatherBrains is Captain Nicole Mitchell from the United States Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters. She joined Bill Murray for a special video interview from Atlanta Monday afternoon. Formerly an On Camera Meteorologist at The Weather Channel, she claims that her contract was illegally terminated because of her military service.
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
Our email bag officer is getting the hang of things, so he summarizes the incoming email.
From The Weather Center:
WeatherBrains 101: Coming through the first month of hurricane season for 2012, so there is a question as to how big tropical storms are. 101 delves into that question coming up with some interesting facts on the biggest and smallest of storms.
TWIWH: Bill Murray looks back at the week of June 18th. The week included Agnes on the Gulf Coast which produced devastating flooding later in Pennsylvania.
Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.
Web Sites from Episode 334:
Picks of the Week:
JB Elliott – Hole in the Clouds from Space
Daryl Herzmann – Gravity Wave Video
Nate Johnson – TX Tornado Net
Bill Murray – Precipitable Water Plots
Brian Peters – Ice Crystal Growth with Music
Kevin Selle – Joplin One Year Later
James Spann – WeatherBrains on Google+
JP Spann – Parrot radar echo
The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like JB Elliott, Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.