Archive for June 22nd, 2012
Severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for parts of the New York City metro area this afternoon.
A severe thunderstorm warning is in effect for Queens, Brooklyn and Staten Island.
Heavy rain is falling over Manhattan and Midtown now.
Severe weather is a good bet this afternoon from New York City down the Northeast Corridor to Baltimore and Washington, D.C.
IN THE TROPICS
Chris is now extratropical. This doesn’t make it any less of a storm for shipping concerns, but just means it is no longer has the requisite warm core of a tropical cyclone.
The surface low in the Gulf is actually better defined although the thunderstorm activity is still disorganized. Here is a recent satellite picture with the isobars and station plots overlain.
The recon mission scheduled for today was scrubbed, but I do see a non tasked Air Force mission flying over the Central Gulf now. There was just a dropsonde released over the eastern Gulf. I will try to find out if that is for this system.
The GFS still forecasts that it will drift north and then northeast, crossing the Florida Peninsula. Here is its 72 depiction (7 a.m. CDT Monday).
The role of Lee Corso is being played by the European. “Not so fast, my friend,” it says. It tosses the mascot head for the future Debby to Texas.
The Canadian is still siding with the ECMWF, predicting a landfall near Corpus Christi as a major hurricane Thursday morning.
Who will be the top model on this one? It’s a loser leave town smackdown in the numerical weather prediction game.
In either case, it looks like the impact on our weather will be zero. There will be rough surf and rip currents along the Alabama/Northwest Florida coast however and depending on the track, some rain and wind as well, but no major problems expected at this time. Still, all residents around the Gulf are being advised by the National Hurricane Center to monitor the future information on this system.
Lots of puffy cumulus clouds across Alabama. It’s quite warm, with temperatures now in the 90s area wide. It was 95F at Huntsville last hour. You can see the southeastward bound cold front in the graphic. It is triggering isolated storms from northeast Georgia back through the Carolinas. We still could see a few isolated storms into Alabama this afternoon, especially over northeastern sections of the state. Otherwise, just hot.
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Still dealing with connectivity issues at my location so trying to get in an abbreviated video. And boy, what a forecast challenge we have ahead of us. The two major models we use do not agree at all on the future course of the Gulf system, but they do agree that we stay dry no matter which model you choose.
The disturbance in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is likely to develop and become Debby. NHC at this writing puts the development chances at 70 percent. But as you will see in the video, all of the various models differ on where it is going. Though there appear to be only two choices. In a nutshell, the GFS takes the storm across North Florida into the Southwest Atlantic and then northeastward. The ECMWF, on the other hand, moves the storm northward but then takes is westward across the Central Gulf and into Texas. While certainly quite different, both model solutions keep us hot and dry for the upcoming week.
While a weak front is moving through the area today, it will have little if any effect. Perhaps an isolated storm may occur especially over the northeast sections of Alabama but I think most of us stay dry.
Following the departure of the tropical system, the GFS builds the ridge back into our area as does the European behind the westward moving tropical system.
As we get out a week or so, the ridge is still the main feature for our weather so hot and dry conditions remain. Longer term, the GFS is still hanging onto a trough that could bring some enhanced rain chances to the Southeast around July 1 or 2. Got my fingers crossed on that one.
In the near term, heat indices will be on the rise and drought conditions will continue to become more of an issue for Central Alabama. No rain in my guagge since June 11th.
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Thanks for your patience on the lack of videos. I found out yesterday that the storm a couple of weeks ago apparently damaged the wireless network at Cheaha State Park. I’m hoping they get it fixed soon, but I will continue to try to post at least a bare minimum video if I can. Godspeed.