Archive for July 4th, 2012
The strongest storm across Central Alabama at this hour is in Marion County. It extends from Hamilton to just north of Guin.
Heavy rain, lightning, winds gusting to 50 mph and some small hail can be expected with these storms.
They are pushing slowly southward and will affect parts of northern Lamar County as well as southern Marion.
Elsewhere, the storms have gone downhill and should continue to do so through the evening hours. This is good news for fireworks watchers across Central Alabama. The fireworks shows should be fine.
ANOTHER RECORD IN TUSCALOOSA
100F today at Tuscaloosa tied the record for the date, set in 1977.
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
CLASSIC SUMMER LOOK: See the radar this afternoon, and it is a classic case of scattered thunderstorms on a hot summer afternoon in Alabama. The storms are rather random in their location, are moving only slowly, and are giving a few neighborhoods a nice temporary break from the heat.
Temperatures all all over the board… at mid-afternoon they range from a rain-cooler 72 at Gadsden… to a scorching 101 at Muscle Shoals.
Most of the storms should be over by fireworks time tonight (9:00).
REST OF THE WEEKEND AND THE WEEKEND: A persistence forecast is best. Partly sunny days, scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms, and highs in the mid 90s through Sunday. The chance of any one spot getting wet remains in the 30-35 percent category, and most of the storms should come in the 2:00 to 9:00 p.m. time frame.
NEXT WEEK: Sign of a pattern change next week… one advertised for a few weeks, and one we be thankful for here in Alabama. The core of the really hot weather shifts to the western half of the nation, leaving us in a pattern with lower heat levels and better chances of rain. Understand it is always hot in July and August in Alabama, but it sure looks like the big time heat will be well to the west through mid-month, and possibly longer. See the Weather Xtreme video for the details.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
Strong storms are over Fayette and Walker Counties at this hour.
The strongest cells are north of Jasper, near Fayette and Millport.
Small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph are possible with these storms.
In East Alabama, a strong storm was between Ohatchee and Ashville. It will move south toward Ragland, eventually affecting Lake Logan Martin. Folks there should move off the lake before the storm arrives. It will have lightning and strong gusty winds as well as small hail. It could also become severe as it is in the highest moisture and instability.
The thunderstorms developing over North Alabama are the subject of a mesoscale discussion (MCD) just issued by the SPC>
They issue mesoscale discussions to notify local offices and the public when strong to severe storms are expected to develop in an area.
From their website:
The MCD basically describes what is currently happening, what is expected in the next few hours, the meteorological reasoning for the forecast, and when/where SPC plans to issue the watch (if dealing with severe thunderstorm potential). Severe thunderstorm MCDs provide extra lead time on the severe weather development and allow you to begin gearing up operations before a watch is issued.
Starting this year, the forecasters started adding a probability that a watch would be issued. Note the low number in this one.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1388
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 PM CDT WED JUL 04 2012
AREAS AFFECTED…NRN AL / SRN MIDDLE TN / NRN GA / WRN NC / UPSTATE
CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 041802Z – 041900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…5 PERCENT
SUMMARY…SCTD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. PULSE
STRONG TO LOW-END SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLD POCKETS OF
LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION…SATELLITE/RADAR/SURFACE COMPOSITE SHOWS A GROWING CU
FIELD WITH SCTD STORMS DEVELOPING AS TEMPS WARM THRU THE 80S IN THE
SRN APPALACHIANS AND WELL INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEG F FARTHER W
OVER NRN AL. THIS HAS LED TO VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITHIN A VERY WEAK WIND PROFILE –INDICATIVE OF A PULSE TSTM
ENVIRONMENT. MODIFYING THE 12Z BMX/FFC RAOBS FOR MID 90S TEMPS WITH
A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINT IN THE LOWER 60S YIELDS
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1.5-1.8 INCH
RANGE…COLLAPSING TSTM CORES VIA WATER LOADING WILL PROBABLY YIELD
ISOLD POCKETS OF WIND GUSTS 45-60 MPH CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE.
LAT…LON 35268161 34328243 33448519 33448830 34168859 35338728
35388431 36018207 35768158 35268161
Expect a few severe thunderstorms over the northern half of the state this afternoon. Some wind damage reports will be likely.
Stay alert this afternoon and keep an eye to the sky.