Archive for August 13th, 2012
Storms Still Packing a Punch Late Tonight
New severe thunderstorm warning just issued for Attala County MS, including Kosciusko, This storm is moving ESE at 30-35 mph. This storm will reach Sumter and Greene Counties in less than three hours, if it holds together. It looks like it might hold together as it rides a boundary of instability that extends east southeast into West Central Alabama.
A couple of reports of wind damage and some large hail reports out of Mississippi, including a ping pong ball size report from between Winona and Kilmichael.
Other storms between Greenville and Greenwood will follow these storms. perhaps on a slightly more northerly tack. This could get them into Pickens and perhaps Tuscaloosa Counties. All of this activity will push into Central Alabama overnight.
The main activity should be south of US-82, but there are storms over Lamar, Fayette, southern Marion, Pickens and northwestern Walker Counties at this time. They are accompanied by lots of lightning and strong gusty winds. These storms are pushing east generally and will affect areas from Cullman to the Birmingham Metro. They should weaken slowly with time and stay well below severe limits. They will probably produce lightning all the way into Northeast Alabama in the hours after midnight.
A couple of the storms will possibly be severe over West Central Alabama, again, mainly south of US-82, so expect a warning or two. The probability of a tornado in Alabama is almost zero.
A flash flood warning continues for Lamar County until midnight. Some moderate rain is pushing across the southern half ofthe county at this time. No reports of flooding this evening, but there could be some flooding in low lying and poor drainage areas. More heavy rainfall will be likely from the bigger storms.
More showers will develop during the morning over North and Central Alabama ahead of the cold front, but they should not be heavy.
Flash Flood Warning: Lamar County
Heavy thunderstorms are over Lamar County in West Alabama, extending from Sulligent to Vernon to Millport.
Rainfall rates are between one and one and one half inches per hour with these storms. Much of the county already received an inch or more of rainfall today. This exacerbates the flooding potential.
More storms are lined up back to the west near Houston, Okaloosa and Amory. This activity will also move across southern Marion and Lamar Counties.
Flooding occurs quickly in parts of Lamar County. Please be careful if you must be out. Remember, turn around, don’t drown. That means don’t drive into standing or flowing water.
Overall, the storms have weakened just a bit in the past 30 minutes. There is a severe storm near Ackerman. This activity will arrive in Pickens, southern Tuscaloosa, Greene and Sumter Counties in a little over two hours.
More strong storms are near Cleveland MS in the Delta. This activity will impact West Central Alabama also.
WGUS54 KBMX 140206
FFWBMX
ALC075-140500-
/O.NEW.KBMX.FF.W.0030.120814T0206Z-120814T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
906 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
LAMAR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…
* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
* AT 905 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAMAR COUNTY THAT COULD DROP 1 TO 3 INCHES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOODING ESPECIALLY
IN AND AROUND THE CITIES OF VERNON AND SULLIGENT.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
SULLIGENT…VERNON…BEAVERTON…BEDFORD…BLOOMING GROVE…
CREWS…KENNEDY AND LAMAR COUNTY AIRPORT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS…COUNTRY ROADS…AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.
&&
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER…
CALL 1-800-856-0758 OR TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG ALWX
LAT…LON 3399 8822 3398 8795 3357 8795 3358 8827
$$
27
New Showers and Storms Moving Our Way
Showers and storms are increasing to our northwest tonight as a cold front pushes our way.
A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for much of northern Mississippi and western Tennessee back into eastern Arkansas and there are six severe thunderstorm warnings over part of Mississippi and Arkansas.
In Alabama right now, there is a storm between Eldridge and Winfield. It is moving eastward into northern Fayette County. A storm over Lowndes County, Mississippi will move into southern Lamar County near Millport within the hour.
The severe storms currently over the Mississippi Delta could reach West Alabama around Lamar and Pickens Counties around 10-10:30 p.m. This main activity will push east southeast into South Central Alabama.
Other storms will develop after midnight ahead of the front over the rest of North and Central Alabama. Some of those could be strong to severe.
Storms Punch Across Alabama
**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today due to travel and the active weather we have dealt with in recent hours**
REMEMBER: Often I say… “When it comes to thunderstorms… expect the unexpected…” The big MCS that moved through Alabama today quite frankly was not forecast well by computer models or humans. There was a little wind damage in northern Tuscaloosa County near Samantha… and up in Lauderdale County in Northwest Alabama. But, the summer rain was good and temperatures are over 20 degrees below average in some places at mid-afternoon. Tuscaloosa is reporting only 72 degrees at 3:00.
The storms weakened as they moved east of I-65, where the air is a little drier and more stable over East Alabama. The severe thunderstorm watch that was issued for much of Central Alabama has been cancelled.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW: I am not sure the computer models still have a good grasp on the situation. Looks like SPC is about to issue another severe thunderstorm watch for lower Mississippi River region… see the graphic below…
These new storms should work their way in here late tonight or early tomorrow morning; I would suggest the main window for our part of Alabama will come from about 9:00 p.m. through 9:00 a.m. The storms could be strong, like the ones we saw earlier today.
Drier air should work into the northern half of the state tomorrow afternoon as the storms move south. We won’t get out of the 80s tomorrow as temperatures remain below average.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: These two days continue to look dry with highs in the 89 to 92 degree range with partly to mostly sunny days and fair nights.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The 12Z GFS shows another increase in moisture with a chance of showers and storms on Friday and Saturday. It remains to be seen if the surface front can move south of here; the drying for Sunday and Monday is somewhat in question… we will keep it mostly dry in the forecast and can fine tune it later. The rain Friday and Saturday won’t be continuous, but it could rain at any time, and a strong storm is possible. The weather pattern really looks more like late September instead of mid-August across North America. The high Friday will be near 90, with 80s over the weekend.
Still no sign of any excessive heat through the rest of August, which is great news for our state. You can watch the morning Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details.
GULF COAST WEATHER: For the area from Panama City to Gulf Shores, expect about 4 to 6 hours of sunshine each day through the weekend, and you will have to dodge scattered showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis. The chance of any one spot getting wet each day will be running in the 30 to 40 percent range, and highs will remain generally in the upper 80s along the immediate coast. Sea water temperatures are mostly in the mid 80s.
TROPICS: The Atlantic basin is generally quiet… but there has been a slight increase in the amount of convection in Tropical Depression 7 over the Caribbean today. If something tries to regenerate, it will wind up over Central America, or the Yucatan, much like Ernesto.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record tonight’s show at 8:30 p.m. CDT… you can watch live here.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
I had a great time today visiting Mississippi State University… I spoke at the annual summer broadcast meteorology workshop. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
Watch Cancelled, Watch Issued
The threat for severe has diminished with rain cooled air now in place across the severe thunderstorm watch area so the watch will be cancelled for Central Alabama counties.
But the threat for severe weather is not over.
Click image to enlarge.
Storms are forming to our northwest over Arkansas and western Mississippi ahead of a cold front that is pushing southeast.
The SPC has just issued a severe thunderstorm watch for areas from southern Illinois and Indiana down to northern Louisiana and western Mississippi. This activity will affect Northwest and West Alabama later tonight. It remains to be seen whether it will make it into the I-59 corridor. The big question is whether our atmosphere can recover from the earlier storms.
Interestingly, the SPC has expanded the slight risk severe weather outlook area for the remainder of the afternoon and night to include areas ahead of the line of storms that is currently pushing eastward across South Central Alabama.
