Archive for August 20th, 2012
Dry Days Ahead; Very Pleasant Nights
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
ON THE MAPS: The cold front is now over South-Central Alabama, and all of North Alabama is in dry air. The “cool” August continues; temperatures are only in the low to mid 80s at 2:00, well below average. The sky is sunny over much of North and West Alabama; clouds linger to the south and east, and a few showers are on radar from Thomasville to Camden to Hayneville. Showers this evening will remain south of U.S. 80.
REST OF THE WEEK: A very simple forecast for us with dry air in place. Look for partly to mostly sunny days and clear nights. Mornings will be fantastic with low 60s likely, but the cooler pockets will reach the 50s early tomorrow and Wednesday morning. Afternoon highs will be in the 87 to 90 degree range. Amazingly pleasant for August.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK: There will be a slow increase in moisture, and we will mention just a few widely scattered showers Saturday and Sunday; nothing widespread. Otherwise, we forecast a mix of sun and clouds Saturday and Sunday with a high in the upper 80s. Looks like there could be a CAD setup just east of here (cold air damming, or the “wedge”)… just something to watch.
BUSY TROPICS: Four systems are on the board this afternoon. Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics and serious details. Let’s break them down…
TROPICAL STORM GORDON: This system is moving east, away from the Azores in the North Atlantic, and will become a post-tropical storm soon over the cooler water. This is nowhere near the U.S.
INVEST 94L: NHC still has this one with an 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within the next 48 hours. It is about 800 miles east of the Leeward Islands, and is moving steadily west. There is a real lack of convection near the center due to all of the dry around around the system, but some slow organization is expected. Lots of speculation on this, but I believe this will turn northward before entering the Gulf of Mexico. It could very well be a threat South Florida and the U.S. East Coast, but it is still way too early to make this call.
INVEST 95L: This is actually the ghost of short lived Tropical Storm Helene… convection is just off the Mexican Gulf Coast well south of Brownsville, Texas. This will probably sit there for a few days before drifting westward into Mexico. It could become a tropical storm before it gets back over land, but odds are this won’t impact our part of the world.
INVEST 96L: This is a wave in the far East Atlantic; it is a higher latitude system and it seems like this one, if it happens to develop, will recurve over the open Atlantic and not impact the U.S.
Again, take a few minutes to watch the Weather Xtreme video for deeper details on tropical weather.
GULF COAST WEATHER: Today has not been a Chamber of Commerce today with clouds and rain. The weather will be brighter on the Gulf Coast tomorrow with increasing amounts of sunshine and fewer showers. Over the latter half of the week and the weekend, look for partly sunny days… about 5 to 8 hours of sun each day with just a few scattered storms. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the upper 80s, and the sea water temperature this afternoon at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 82 degrees.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. The Alabama state climatologist, Dr. John Christy, will join us tonight for this week’s episode. You can watch live at 8:30 p.m. CDT here.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
Some Good Ole USA Weather Notes and Concerns
* Late this morning, a solid line of thunderstorms, overdosed with lightning, extended from the west Gulf of Mexico northeastward to just off the Southeast Louisiana Coast to just off the east part of the Northwest Florida Panhandle. The rest of the USA was relatively quiet,
* A blistering 118 was the official hottest temperature in the nation Sunday. That area holds the all time high for the USA of 134 (only two degrees lower than the world record of 136!
* 32 was the lowest in all of the 50 states this morning at Tomahawak, Wisc.
* In Alaska, 35 was the coolest at Tin City.
* It was a cool 46 in North Adams, Mass., this morning
* 39 was the low in Saranac Lake, in Upstate New York. The northeast part of this great country is getting a good break from a long hot summer and autumn.
* Will the forest fires ever end? This has to be the worst year on record. This morning more wild fires had broken out in several counties of Northern California. Dozens of homes were in danger of being burned to the ground.
A LOOK AT SOME 2012 RAIN SCORE CARDS
…33.82 inches so far this year at Huntsville…a shortage of 1.17 inches
…27.54 at Muscle Shoals, a deficiency of 6.97 inches
…31.33 at Anniston. a shortage of 2.38 inches
…18.37 inches at Auburn, shortage not available
…32.29 at Birmingham Airport, a shortage of 3.34
…39.39 at Calera (Shelby County Airport) and excess of 3.15
…28.42 at Montgomery/Dannelly Field…a shortage of 6.78
…29.03 at Tuscaloosa Airport, a shortage of of 5.61 inches
…41.70 at Troy, an excess of 5.15 inches
…50.02 at Mobile Regional Airport, an excess of 5.22
WEATHER BRAINS: The Alabama State Climatologist, based at UAH/Huntsville will be our guest tonight. Looking forward to that. For a number of years, Alabama was the only state without a state climatologist. The MIC at USWB, Montgomery filled in during that. After he retired, I did it for several years. Just the work–no title It was an awesome task–especially the tornado surveys.
Facebook Change
**For those of you that follow me on Facebook… this is an important change**
THE PROBLEM: While I am blessed to have over 103,000 people following me on my Facebook page, unfortunately just a small part (10-15 percent) of those actually receive posts I make. And, those posts are often tornado warnings on big severe weather days, making this situation rather dangerous. Many people rely on that Facebook feed, and it simply won’t deliver the message to everybody. Just the way Facebook works.
My Facebook page is here:
http://www.facebook.com/jamesspann
Understand, the page is not going away; anybody can post pictures there, ask questions, etc, and I will respond.
THE FIX: Weather content will now be found on my regular account page, which is here:
WHAT YOU NEED TO DO: If you want to receive my weather updates, severe weather warnings, etc… you must subscribe to that regular account.
Go to the account page here, and click on SUBSCRIBE. Don’t click on “FRIEND”… I have been at the 5,000 friend limit for a number of years and Facebook won’t allow any more. But, I can have an unlimited number of subscribers.
Then, the next important step… hover the mouse over that same button (which will then say “subscribed”) and click on “settings”. Then, be sure you click on “all updates”. This will send all warnings, and weather updates I post to your Facebook wall/timeline.
It is pretty much something you have to do on a computer… it is almost impossible on the mobile apps, unfortunately.
TWITTER: Nothing changes… most of you follow @spann on Twitter… be also we have an account that distributes all Alabama severe weather warnings there… @ewarn.
Nobody likes change on social media networks, but the simply fact that a small percentage of over 100,000 people expecting to get severe weather warnings through the James Spann page forced the change….
Drier Weather Pattern Setting Up
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
THIS MORNING: A well defined surface boundary is draped across Central Alabama this morning. North of the front, the dewpoint is only 57 at Huntsville and Decatur, while to the south the dewpoint at Maxwell AFB in Montgomery is 72. Sure looks like the front is still drifting south, so the best chance of showers and storms today will come over the southern half of the state. I guess we can’t rule out a shower as far north as I-20 this afternoon, but only an outside risk for places like Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston, and Gadsden. Again today we won’t reach 90; highs should be in the mid to upper 80s.
REST OF THE WEEK: Dry air should cover much of Alabama, meaning partly to mostly sunny days and fair nights tomorrow through Friday. We will enjoy cool mornings early tomorrow and Wednesday with low 60s for most places, and 50s for the cooler spots. Afternoon highs will be mostly in the 87 to 91 degree range, still below average for August in Alabama.
OUR WEEKEND: Moisture increases a bit, but there is no real dynamic forcing, so we will just mention a chance of widely scattered showers and storms Saturday and Sunday with a partly sunny sky. Highs over the weekend will be close to 90; nights won’t be as cool with early morning lows around 70 degrees.
GULF COAST WEATHER: Periods of rain and a few thunderstorms are likely today along the coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores, but the weather will be drier for the rest of the week, with increasing amounts of sunshine and fewer showers tomorrow through Friday. Look for a high in the mid 80s today, followed by upper 80s along the immediate coast each day for the rest of the week. The sea surface temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 82 degrees.
TROPICS HEATING UP: Gordon is still a hurricane this morning near the Azores, and is moving east. A weak disturbance is on the Mexican Gulf Coast (AL95), and it remains to be seen if this will drift inland, or make a run at getting it’s act together. NHC says only a 20 percent chance of development there within the next 24 hours.
There are two tropical waves to watch in the Atlantic; one just off the coast of Africa, and a stronger one about halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. NHC has pegged that one with an 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within 24 hours, and the name will be “Isaac”.
Models are in fairly good agreement over the next 5 days, with the system somewhere near Hispaniola late this week. From there, it remains to be seen if it will turn north, or keep moving west/northwest and become a threat for the Gulf. The GFS has been all over the board with little run to run consistency; the 00Z GFS brings it near Key West, with a turn toward Tampa Bay early next week, but that position could be several hundred miles off.
While there is no evidence there will be a strong upper trough over the eastern U.S. this weekend to force the north turn, we have to remember there has been a mean upper trough there for several weeks, so a weakness in the ridge north of the system would not be a complete surprise, which would make this more of an East Coast threat instead of a Gulf system. But it is just too early to call. See the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics and complete details.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. The Alabama state climatologist, Dr. John Christy, joins us tonight; you can watch live at 8:30 p.m. CDT here.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
