Archive for August 21st, 2012
Isaac Forms
Isaac is a minimal tropical storm… scroll down for the complete discussion, and see the afternoon Weather Xtreme video for details.
Delightful August Weather
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NICE: We expect hot, humid, oppressive weather around here in August, but nothing like that right now. This is another delightful day, with ample sunshine, low humidity, and pleasant temperatures. Not a 90 in sight at mid-afternoon; temperatures are generally in the mid 80s.
REST OF THE WEEK: No change… just a very slow increase in moisture late in the week. We expect partly to mostly sunny days, and fair highs. Highs will be in the 87-90 degree range. Cooler spots should visit the 50s again early tomorrow morning, followed by low in the 60s early Thursday and Friday.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK: We will continue to mention just the chance of widely scattered showers Saturday and Sunday, otherwise the weekend should feature partly sunny days and fair nights; highs remain in the 87 to 90 degree range. Moisture levels will be higher, but there is no real dynamic forcing for widespread rain.
TROPICS: As you might expect in mid-August… things are getting busy… take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the details and graphics.
AL95: This is the system on the Mexican coast south of Brownsville, TX. It is very close to being inland, and drifting west, so development here looks pretty unlikely. NHC has dropped the chance of development within 48 hours to only 20 percent.
AL96: The tropical wave behind TD 9 has a decent chance of slow development; it will move generally northwest into a position that will likely put it on a recurvature path, not impacting the U.S. mainland.
TD 9: This is the one that warrants most of the attention. We should point out that dry air continues to wrap into the circulation, and the system remains below tropical storm strength this afternoon as it moves west toward the Leeward Islands.
Sure looks like the dry air, and interaction with islands like Hispaniola, will prevent this from becoming a major hurricane in the short term. A good chance this one will struggle for a while.
Model agreement is good, and the system should be near the eastern tip of Cuba as the weekend ends. NHC has “Isaac” as a hurricane at that point, but I am not sure it will be that strong.
Climatology and the top 10 analogs suggest there is a high chance Isaac turns north somewhere around the southern tip of Florida early next week, with a potential run up the U.S. East Coast. Considering the general weakness in the upper flow and mean trough over the eastern U.S. this month, I think this idea has great merit. On this track, there would be no major impact on Alabama or the Central Gulf Coast (Panama City west to Gulf Shores).
However, we do note the ECMWF has Isaac as a major hurricane west of Tampa Bay toward the end of next week. But, this is an outlier for now. And, don’t forget the Euro did a horrible job with Tropical Storm Debby earlier this summer.
Just in… the 12Z GFS ensembles have shifted a bit west as well, closer to the ECMWF. But, don’t be surprised if it shifts east again. Very typical for a system that is in it’s infancy.
BOTTOM LINE: It is still WAY too early to call the U.S. impact track with TD 9, so stay tuned. Again, see the Weather Xtreme video for details. Everybody from the Florida Peninsula northward up the East Coast will need to keep a close eye on this one.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the this week’s episode we recorded last night.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
In the Cool, Cool of the Morning
Is it possible that Mother Nature is trying to give us a preview of Autumn after scorching us and flooding us so much so far this year?. Maybe Father Nature encouraged her to lighten up! It sure felt that way this morning. Anyway, here we go with a list of very pleasant low temperatures across Alabama this morning.
55 Fort Payne, Cullman, Russellville Airport, Valley Head, Hamilton,
56 Scottsboro Airport, Addison
58 Muscle Shoals, Decatur, Centre, Heflin
59 Huntsville, Rock Mills, Dearmanville, Ellisville, Gaylesville
60 Oak Grove,
61 Centreville
62 Anniston
63 Birmingham Airport
64 Calera (Shelby County Airport)
65 Bessemer
69 Gadsden
USA EXTREMES LAST 24 HOURS
119 Death Valley yesterday afternoon
34 this morning, West Yellowstone, Mont.,
Midday NHC Update On TD 9
Watch the morning Weather Xtreme video, or scroll down for my take…
Dry Days For North/Central Alabama
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
REFRESHING MORNING: One of the cooler spots around Alabama early this morning is Fort Payne with a cool 55 degrees… most of the other “cool spots” across North Alabama are in the upper 50s. Delightful for August in Alabama.
DRY WEEK: Dry, continental air is the story for us for the rest of the week, making for a rather simple forecast. Mostly sunny days, fair nights, with temperatures below average for August. Afternoon highs should be in the 87 to 90 degree range, with morning lows generally in the 60-65 degree range through mid-week. Dewpoints will begin to rise a bit by Friday with warmer nights and higher humidity levels during the day.
WEEKEND PEEK: We will mention a chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday due to the increase in low level moisture, but there is no real dynamic forcing, and a pretty good part of the weekend should be rain-free. The GFS is printing a high of 89 degrees for Birmingham both Saturday and Sunday.
Of course, this weekend we will begin to watch the tropics very close as Isaac could very well be close to South Florida.
GULF COAST WEATHER: After several wet days, improving weather headlines our beach forecast this week; we expect about 5 to 7 hours of sunshine each day through Friday with showers and storms becoming fewer in number. Afternoon highs will be mostly in the upper 80s along the immediate coast, and sea water temperatures are generally in the mid 80s.
ACTIVE TROPICAL SCENE: We have three systems to watch in the tropics… including the ninth tropical depression of the season which formed in the Atlantic early this morning. Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details… Let’s take them one at a time…
AL95: This is the disturbance in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico, just off the Mexican coast. This one won’t move much at all over the next 48 hours, and just might become a tropical depression, or even a tropical storm. This is actually a little bit of former Tropical Storm Helene, but if it gets it’s act together it will get a new name. After 48 hours, this should drift into Mexico, and seems to be no threat to our Gulf Coast.
AL96: This is a tropical wave in the East Atlantic… a pretty decent chance this becomes a tropical storm in coming days, but it is a higher latitude system, and seems to be in a position to recurve into the open Atlantic and doesn’t seem to be a threat to the U.S. for now.
T.D. 9: Soon to be Tropical Storm Isaac, this is the one that will bring great weeping and gnashing of teeth in weather offices over the eastern U.S. as the week rolls along. The official NHC forecast track is actually on the southern edge of the guidance envelope; our friends in Miami have this on the southeast coast of Cuba Saturday night.
There is good agreement that a northward turn will begin in 3-5 days due to the persistent weakness in the ridge over the Southeast U.S… the big questions, of course, involve the timing of that turn, and the intensity of the system as it approaches South Florida.
Looks like a decent chance Isaac will interact with Hispaniola, which is a mountainous island that will greatly disrupt the circulation of the system before nearing the southern tip of Florida. More than likely, the greatest strengthening will come as Isaac moves away from Hispaniola, but it all depends on whether the center of circulation interacts with the Florida Peninsula or not. We just don’t know at this point.
The odds of Isaac impacting the Central Gulf (Panama City to Gulf Shores) are low at this point.
One interesting analog I can find to Isaac is Hurricane David in 1979… which was an “East Coast” runner. We will keep an eye on this and keep you posted in coming days.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon… enjoy the day!
