Archive for September 7th, 2012
Late Night Update
It was interesting to watch the game between the Indians and Twins at Target Field in Minneapolis tonight. Fans were huddled in the stands under blankets as the temperature fell into the 50s by the end of the game. Lows will be in the 40s across much of the Upper Midwest and northern Plains overnight. A sign of things to come. Soon.
CHANGES AHEAD: A very nice change is ahead for across Alabama as a cold front will push into the state early this morning. It will spell much cooler and drier weather for us over the next few days, starting tomorrow.
FIRST THE STORMS: Showers and storms formed this afternoon over Kansas and Oklahoma ahead of a cold front. They triggered numerous severe thunderstorm watches and warnings, and even a couple of tornado warnings to the northwest of Alabama.
A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 2 a.m. for parts of northern Mississippi and western Tennessee including Jackson TN, Oxford and Tupelo. I doubt it will be extended into Alabama as the showers and storms should continue to weaken as they approach our state. we will continue to monitor them however.
TODAY: By 7 a.m., the cold front will be over Northwest Alabama. Showers will be occurring ahead of the front, especially over western sections. The showers will move northeastward through late morning. Most of them should be over Northeast Alabama by early afternoon. Showers and storms will refire south of the I-59 corridor after lunchtime. They will push southeastward during the afternoon. A few of the storms could be strong to even severe in areas from south of Anniston to Montgomery. Highs will range from the middle 70s over northwestern sections to near 80F in the I-59 corridor to lower 80s over southeastern sections of the area. Skies will be mostly cloudy in the I-59 corridor through midafternoon, but some sunshine will return through the late afternoon hours. Northwestern sections will see sunshine a little earlier.
FOOTBALL FORECAST: Auburn is at Mississippi State for a late morning game with the Bulldogs. Showers will end in Starkville an hour or so before gametime, so tailgating may be a little damp, but the game should be dry, with temperatures in the 70s. You might see some sunshine by the fourth quarter, but don’t count on it. Winds will shift around to the northwest at 10-15 mph. Shift that a couple of hours, and you will get the weather at Tuscaloosa for Alabama and Western Kentucky. Rain should end by 1 p.m. with some clearing in the second half. Temperatures will top out near 80F with those same freshening northwesterly winds.
COOLER OVERNIGHT: As the much drier air moves into the state, readings overnight will fall into the 50s across the state. It will make for very pleasant conditions tomorrow morning.
SUNDAY is shaping up to be a delightful September day, with highs topping out around 80F, bright blue skies and a brisk northerly wind. We will be back in the 50s Sunday night.
THE WEEK AHEAD: High pressure will remain in control of Alabama’s weather through Friday, giving us more fine weather. Highs will be in the middle 80s. Lows will be in the middle 60s.
Front Edging Closer
The cold front which has been forecast to make an appearance here tomorrow is edging closer to Central Alabama this evening. The image below shows the thunderstorms just ahead of the front as they were approaching Memphis around 9 pm. A severe thunderstorm watch was in effect until 2 am for portions of northern Mississippi, Tennessee, and Kentucky. Alabama was not included in the watch, but a watch may be possible late tonight and into the early morning hours. Severe weather reported so far has been in the form of hail and damaging wind.
Temperatures drop quickly into the 60s behind the front with dew points in the 50s in northern Missouri and Kansas. Current thinking is that the front should pass Birmingham at or slightly before noon on Saturday bringing an end to the rain threat. Dew points in the 50s should reach the Birmingham area around midnight Saturday night or early Sunday morning. I’m specifying Birmingham as a benchmark, so earlier for areas west and north of Birmingham and later for area east and south of Birmingham.
I plan to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 or so in the morning.
-Brian-
Cool Change By Sunday
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
WATCHING THE FRONT: The long awaited cold front is on the way; at mid-afternoon it was passing through St. Louis and Kansas City, and will be pushing through Alabama tomorrow. Behind the front at 2:00, Carrington, ND reports 59 degrees with a dewpoint of 43. Now that is some fall weather.
RADAR: Showers have formed over Southeast Alabama this afternoon, mainly in areas east of I-65, and south of I-85. Nothing is showing up over the northern half of Alabama, and showers are not very likely around here through midnight.
TOMORROW: A band of showers and storms should push into North Alabama early tomorrow morning. SPC maintains a “slight risk” of severe weather just northwest of Alabama, and the storms could be strong as they slip into the state, but they should be in a weakening phase considering the time of day. Then, during the morning, the band of showers will press southward ahead of the front.
The 12Z model data is very similar to previous runs; maybe a tad slower. For places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden, it still looks like the best chance of rain tomorrow will come from about 7:00 a.m. until 2:00 p.m. Then, by mid to late afternoon most of the rain moves down into South Alabama, where a few thunderstorms are possible as well. Rain amounts here should be pretty light… the new 12Z NAM prints only 0.13″ for Birmingham. It won’t be a big rain event.
TOMORROW NIGHT/SUNDAY: A breath of fresh air as cooler and dryer air moves into our state. We will drop into the 50s early Sunday; the NAM shows 56, and the GFS is at 58. The day will be sunny with very low humidity and a high only around the 80 degree mark. Doesn’t get much better in early September.
NEXT WEEK: The 12Z GFS shows dry weather for most of Alabama through Friday. If you have been looking for a long dry period to get some work done outdoors, here is your chance. Expect sunny warm days and clear pleasant nights at least through Thursday.
HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL TONIGHT: Only about a 10 percent risk of a shower at any one specific game site over the northern half of Alabama. Temperatures will be in the low 80s, and the humidity will be very high.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOMORROW… First game of the day Saturday is in Starkville, where Auburn will visit Mississippi State (11:00 a.m. kickoff). Rain is likely in Starkville tomorrow morning, but it should end about the time the game begins. A stray shower is possible during the first quarter, otherwise the sky will be mostly cloudy with temperatures rising from near 77 at kickoff to about 82 by the final whistle.
Alabama will host Western Kentucky at Bryant-Denny Stadium at 2:30; much like the Auburn game, showers are likely in Tuscaloosa tomorrow morning for the tailgating activities, but we now feel pretty confident those showers will be over by game time. The sky should be cloudy for the first half with only a slight risk of a stray shower during the first quarter, but clearing is likely during the second half of the game as drier air works into West Alabama. Temperatures should be in the low to mid 80s.
Jacksonville State will host UT Chattanooga at Snow-Burgess Field Saturday evening at 6:00… we will forecast a clear sky with temperatures falling from near 78 at kickoff into the upper 60s by the fourth quarter. Should be a great night for football.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday… my next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. Monday. Enjoy the weekend!
Weekend Cold Front On The Way
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
MOSTLY DRY TODAY: The chance of any one spot seeing a shower later today and early tonight is only about one in ten, otherwise today will feature a partly sunny sky with a high at or just over 90 degrees. But, to the northwest, the upper trough and surface front you see will impact out weather in a big way this weekend.
TOMORROW: The RPM suggests a line of storms will move into Northwest Alabama early tomorrow morning; SPC has the standard “slight risk” of severe weather up for areas just northwest of Alabama, and the storms could be strong as they enter the northwest corner of the state. But, they should be in a weakening phase, and the RPM hints that the line will basically consist of light showers as they pass through North-Central Alabama. For the I-20/59 corridor (Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston, Gadsden), it looks like the best chance of showers will come from about 7:00 a.m. until 2:00 p.m.
Looks like rain amounts will be 1/2 inch or less; the NAM is printing 0.41″ for Birmingham which looks about right.
TOMORROW NIGHT/SUNDAY: The sky will clear late in the day tomorrow as cooler and drier air works in here, and Sunday promises to be a beautiful day. Tons of sun, low humidity, and a cool morning. The NAM brings us down to 54 degrees early Sunday, with a high of only 81 along with a pleasant north breeze. A very nice autumn feel.
NEXT WEEK: Looks like we will be rain-free at least through Thursday of next week, with sunny warm days and clear pleasant nights. Highs will be in the 80s. Just a slight risk of a shower late in the week on Friday.
HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL TONIGHT: Only about a 10 percent risk of a shower at any one specific game site. Temperatures will be in the low 80s, and the humidity will be very high.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOMORROW… First game of the day Saturday is in Starkville, where Auburn will visit Mississippi State (11:00 a.m. kickoff). Rain is likely in Starkville tomorrow morning, but it should end about the time the game begins. We will mention just a small risk of a shower during the first quarter, otherwise the sky will be mostly cloudy with temperatures rising from near 77 at kickoff to about 82 by the final whistle.
Alabama will host Western Kentucky at Bryant-Denny Stadium at 2:30; much like the Auburn game, showers are likely in Tuscaloosa tomorrow morning for the tailgating activities, but we now feel pretty confident those showers will be over by game time. The sky should be cloudy for the first half, but clearing is likely during the second half of the game as drier air works into West Alabama. Temperatures should be in the low to mid 80s.
Jacksonville State will host UT Chattanooga at Snow-Burgess Field Saturday evening at 6:00… we will forecast a clear sky with temperatures falling from near 78 at kickoff into the upper 60s by the fourth quarter. Should be a great night for football.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
