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Archive for November, 2012

Mild Weekend Ahead

| 3:23 pm November 30, 2012

**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today**

This afternoon’s forecast discussion courtesy of J.B. Elliott, the great American weather legend…

A PLEASANT WEEKEND TO START WINTER: Yes, winter officially begins on December 1 which is tomorrow. As usual, we pay little attention to any change in weather based on just one day. In fact, we look for mostly sunshine Saturday and Sunday and no chance of rain or storms until the middle of next week. Let’s go ahead and discuss that. We do expect a good chance of showers and some thunderstorms on Tuesday continuing Tuesday night. We could get about ½ inch of much needed rain with those followed by clearing and cooler next Wednesday. We will have another cool night tonight, but not quite as cool a last night. We expect lows in the mid-40s and some patchy fog may develop. Looking at the weather maps we will have a southeast wind flow Saturday and Sunday, but again we will have another front approaching from the northwest next Tuesday which will give us those chances of showers and storms later in the day and at night. Cooler air will move into the state on Wednesday followed by some clearing weather.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: There may still be some high school play-off games tonight. The weather looks good with temperatures in the 50s at kickoff and maybe some upper 40s by the final whistle. Saturday is a big day. Alabama will be in Atlanta to play the University of Georgia in the Georgia Dome. The weather will be excellent in Atlanta on Saturday whether you are driving over or attending the game. The high temperature will be about 65 and in the 50s toward the end of the game. Of course, the temperature will be steady inside the dome.

THE GREAT WESTERN STORMS: The West is really catching it, somewhat like the Eastern Seaboard did earlier this year. This includes extremely heavy rain in parts of California with massive flash flooding. Meanwhile further north there will be some historic snowstorms. For example, 3 feet of snow is expected in the next 24 hours above 8,000 feet in the Tetons and other west-facing mountains. Extremely high winds will cause some historic drifting. Gusts may exceed 80 mph. Travel will become impassable on Teton Pass and other higher elevations.

OTHER USA NOTES: The warmest in the nation yesterday was 83 at El Centro, California. The low this morning in the lower 48 was 2 below zero at Saranac Lake in Upstate New York. It was a bitter cold 44 below at Northway, Alaska where there is 12 inches of snow on the ground.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I had a great time today visiting with the kids at St. Frances Xavier Catholic School… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40! Brian Peters will have the Weather Xtreme video updates tomorrow and Sunday… my next one will be here early Monday by 7:00 a.m. Enjoy the weekend!

Mild Start To December

| 6:04 am November 30, 2012

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

WARM-UP CONTINUES: Temperatures are not as cold as recent mornings across the great state of Alabama; most places are in the 37-42 degree range at daybreak. We warm into the low to mid 60s today with a good supply of sunshine.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER BEGINS MILD: Meteorological winter is December 1 through February 28… but in terms of astronomy the winter season begins December 21 at 5:12 a.m. CST. We are still projecting a high around 70 degrees tomorrow and Sunday with a partly to mostly sunny sky both days. Early morning lows will be in the 47-52 degree range. Doesn’t get much better this time of the year.

NEXT WEEK: We stay dry and mild Monday… a cold front will pass through Tuesday night with a decaying band of showers; the latest GFS hints at rain totals under a quarter of an inch. Then, slightly cooler air follows the front Wednesday through Friday, but highs will still be very pleasant, mostly in the 60s.

VOODOO COUNTRY: Still no sign of any long lasting cold weather around here; the big omega block over the Bering Sea is keeping the pattern from becoming too amplified over the continental U.S. at least through mid-December. We do note the CFSv2 (Climate Forecast System) shows a large snow cover over much of the U.S. the week of Christmas, but that is about as voodoo as you can get. See the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For tonight’s high school playoff games, the sky will be clear with temperatures falling through the 50s during the games. For tomorrow’s SEC championship game in Atlanta, we can promise no rain since the game is indoors at the Georgia Dome, but the weather outside looks great as well with a partly sunny sky and afternoon temperatures peaking in the upper 60s.

HURRICANE SEASON ENDS TODAY: The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season was one that produced 19 named storms, of which 10 became hurricanes and one became a major hurricane. An interesting aspect of the season was its early start, with two tropical storms, Alberto and Beryl, developing in May before the season officially began. Also, this is the seventh consecutive year that no major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) have hit the United States. The only major hurricane this season was Hurricane Michael, a Category 3 storm that stayed over the open Atlantic. Several storms this year were short in duration, weak in intensity, and went largely unnoticed by the general public because they stayed out over the Atlantic. A persistent jet stream pattern over the eastern portion of the nation helped steer many of this season’s storms away from the United States. The number of named storms and hurricanes was higher than predicted in NOAA’s pre-season outlook, in large part because El Niño – which likely would have suppressed overall storm activity – never materialized as predicted by many climate models.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have a weather program today at St. Frances Xavier Catholic school in Birmingham… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so. Enjoy the day!

November Shaping Up as Very Dry

| 4:32 pm November 29, 2012

Since the forecast calls for no rain through the end of the month, I think we can safely say that November, 2012, will be one of THE driest Novembers on record for Central Alabama.

According to the observations made at the Birmingham Shuttlesworth International Airport, November, 2012, will tie 1910 as the eighth driest in our period of record from 1900 to the current day.

Place Year Rain Total
1 1901 & 1903 0.00″
2 1924 0.01″
3 1949 0.42″
4 1939 0.75″
5 1909 1.05″
6 1908 1.07″
7 1912 1.18″
8 2012 & 1910 1.46″
9 1917 1.55″
10 1942 1.57″

The period of record for Tuscaloosa began in 1948, and for the observations there, this November is the third driest at 1.18″. Anniston is nearly identical to Tuscaloosa. The records there began in 1950 and this November is the third driest at 1.19″.

Montgomery is even drier with the monthly total there standing at 0.97″ which makes this November their fourth driest on record since records begain in 1950.

According to the U. S. Drought Monitor, much of Alabama from Jackson County southwestward to Tuscaloosa and then southward to Mobile has no drought. But that ramps up to exceptional drought, the worst condition, in East Central Alabama centered on Randolph, Clay, Tallapoosa, and Chambers counties.

For a point of reference, the 30-year average rainfall for November is 4.63″ which is a long way from the 1.46″ we’ve actually recorded.

-Brian-

Mild Afternoons Ahead

| 3:36 pm November 29, 2012

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

NICE WARM-UP: A very nice temperature recovery for Alabama today. Most places started the day below freezing; this afternoon we are seeing low 60s around here with a cloudless sky. Tonight won’t be as cold as last night; most places will wind up somewhere between 36 and 42, but the colder valleys over Northeast Alabama might make a run at freezing.

TOMORROW AND THE WEEKEND: The warming trend continues. We reach the mid 60s tomorrow, and the high Saturday and Sunday will be very close to 70 degrees to kick off the month of December. The sky will be partly to mostly sunny, and there is no significant chance of rain. Early morning lows will be in the 45-50 degree range.

NEXT WEEK: The 12Z GFS continues the idea of a cold front passing through Tuesday night with a decaying band of showers along with light rain amounts. We will still enjoy a high around 70 degrees Monday and Tuesday, but temperatures drop a bit Wednesday with a high in the low 60s. Thursday and Friday of next week look dry and pleasant.

LONG RANGE: The GFS still likes the idea of a cold front passing through Alabama Saturday December 8 with a good chance of showers and storms, followed by a sharp but temporary change to colder weather Sunday 12/9. See the Weather Xtreme video for details… until the omega block breaks down over the Bering Sea cold snaps down here won’t last too long.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today visiting with the first graders at Brent Elementary School… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here early tomorrow morning by 7:00 a.m.

Big Warm-Up In Coming Days

| 5:51 am November 29, 2012

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

ANOTHER COLD START: Temperatures are well below freezing over much of North Alabama this morning… some 5:00 a.m. temperatures…

Black Creek (just northeast of Gadsden) 23
Haleyville 24
Valley Head 25
Concord 26
Gadsden 27
Fayette 27
Coker 27
Bessemer 28
Anniston 30
Birmingham 32

The dry air over Alabama will heat very effectively today, and most places will enjoy a high in the low 60s with maximum available sunshine.

TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: The warm-up continues. The high tomorrow will be in the mid 60s, and then very close to 70 degrees Saturday and Sunday. The sky will be partly to mostly sunny, and nights won’t be as cold; the early morning low tomorrow will be around 40, and close to 50 Saturday and Sunday.

A high of 70 for the first of December is ten degrees above average. We should note Alabama’s warmest December temperature on record is 80 degrees, recorded on December 7, 1951.

NEXT WEEK: We stay very mild Monday with a high at or just over 70, but a cold front is due in here Tuesday night or early Wednesday. This front will bring some risk of showers to the state, but the latest GFS runs, and the ECWMF, both show that rain will be relatively light, and there won’t be any problem with severe weather. And, the air following the front will be cooler, but not really cold for December.

LAND OF VOODOO: The weather looks very changeable for the rest of December. The GFS hints at a cold front on Saturday December 8 with a chance of showers/storms, followed by much colder air the following day. Another similar front shows up around December 12. See the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be doing a weather program today at Brent Elementary School in Bibb County…. be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Warming Trend Ahead

| 3:25 pm November 28, 2012

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

SEVERE CLEAR: Not a cloud in the Alabama sky this afternoon, and temperatures around here are generally in the upper 50s. Tonight will be cold again, with lows early tomorrow in the 28-35 degree range with a clear sky and light wind.

WARMER DAYS: We warm into the low 60s tomorrow, and mid 60s Friday with a good supply of sunshine both days. We should stay above freezing early Friday with a low in the upper 30s and low 40s.

MILD WEEKEND: We kick off meteorological winter with a mild weekend… we are still expecting highs at or just over 70 degrees Saturday and Sunday with a partly sunny sky both days. The mild and dry weather will carry over to Monday as well.

NEXT WEEK: The 12Z GFS pushes a significant cold front through Alabama Tuesday night with a band of showers and storms; strong storms will be possible, but for now a major severe weather issue isn’t expected. Then, we turn colder Wednesday as the high will drop back into the low 50s. The latter half of the week will be dry with cool days and chilly nights.

THE LAND OF VOODOO: Still seeing evidence of a major storm event for Alabama at some point down the line, but the timing is all over the board. The 12Z GFS now shows the event on Tuesday December 12, with some potential for strong to severe storms followed by much colder air. I note Eagle, Alaska dropped to 40 degrees below zero this morning, and even at mid-afternoon today we are seeing some temperatures in interior Alaska still colder than 30 below, so we will need to keep an eye on that air. See the Weather Xtreme video as usual for the graphics and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today seeing the third graders at Walter Kennedy Elementary School in Pell City… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Dry Through The Weekend; Warmer Afternoons

| 5:44 am November 28, 2012

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

THIS MORNING: Looks like the clouds didn’t want to exit the state last night as expected; they linger this morning over much of Alabama. Accordingly, temperatures aren’t quite as cold as expected, with mostly mid to upper 30s around here.

Bone crushing subsidence will mean the clouds go away very quickly during the next couple of hours, and we are still forecasting a sunny day. Model guidance is a bit cooler with a high today now expected to be in the mid 50s.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: These days will be dry with lots of sun and warming trend. We reach the low 60s tomorrow, followed by mid 60s Friday. Tomorrow morning will be cold with a low near freezing, but the low early Friday will be closer to 40.

A MILD START TO DECEMBER: The weekend looks dry and very mild for the season, with a high in the 67 to 71 degree range Saturday and Sunday. We are forecasting a mix of sun and clouds both days.

The weather stays dry and mild Monday, but a cold front is due in here Tuesday night, which will bring a round of showers and storms, followed by cooler weather Wednesday. The latest GFS in hand (06Z run) hints the main window for showers and storms next week will come from about 4:00 p.m. Tuesday through 4:00 a.m. Wednesday, with rain amounts of about 1/2 inch likely.

VOODOO COUNTRY: The 06Z GFS shows a severe weather setup here around the weekend of December 8-9… of course this could change, but it is something to watch. Sure looks like December will be changeable with periods of mild and cold weather with a few decent rain/storm events in between. See the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be over in Pell City this morning doing a weather program at Walter Kennedy Elementary School…. be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Sunshine Returns Tomorrow

| 3:28 pm November 27, 2012

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RAIN OUT; COLDER AIR IN: Low clouds have been hanging tough over North Alabama this afternoon as expected, and temperatures are cold. Most communities reached their high early this morning, with readings falling into the 40s this afternoon. Haleyville is reporting a chilly 42 degrees at 2:00… Birmingham is at 49.

The sky will clear quickly tonight, and by daybreak tomorrow temperatures will be very close to freezing. The sky will be sunny tomorrow with a high near 60 degrees.

Dry weather continues Thursday and Friday; we reach the low to mid 60s Thursday, followed by mid 60s Friday. Thursday morning will be cold again with a low near freezing, but the low early Friday will be closer to 40 degrees.

MILD WEEKEND: We will see a high very close to 70 degrees Saturday and Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds both days. Low level moisture levels will increase a bit, but there is no trigger for rain and we won’t mention any chance of showers in the forecast for now. Early morning lows this weekend will be in the 48-53 degree range as we begin meteorological winter with a mild spell.

NEXT WEEK: We stay unseasonably mild Monday and Tuesday… then a cold front will pass through Wednesday (December 5) with a chance of showers and storms, followed by colder weather Thursday and Friday. For now the mid-week system doesn’t look like a severe weather setup, although some of the storms along the front could contain some gusty winds.

Out in the longer range, the “land of voodoo” as we call it in the weather business, the GFS hints at rain events around December 9 and December 12, but still no classic severe weather looks. See the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details.

RAIN TOTALS: A few totals from last night and this morning from the ABC 33/40 SKYCAM Network…

Parrish 0.53″
Trussville 0.47″
Jasper 0.47″
Downtown Birmingham 0.34″
Tuscaloosa 0.30″
Montevallo 0.29″
Gadsden 0.15″
Clanton 0.10″
Haleyville 0.08″
Cheaha State Park 0.04″

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today visiting with the kids at Floyd Elementary School in Gadsden… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…