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Archive for November 20th, 2012

Mild Afternoons; A Colder Weekend

| 3:49 pm November 20, 2012

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

VERY COMFORTABLE: Temperatures are mostly in the upper 60s across Alabama this afternoon with a good supply of sunshine over the northern counties of the state. Some clouds linger over South Alabama, where a few light showers are in progress. Those will end soon, and all of the state will be dry tonight.

TOMORROW AND THANKSGIVING DAY: The weather stays dry with sunny mild days and clear cool nights. Look for a high both days between 67 and 70, with morning lows in the 40s. Doesn’t get much better.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY: We project a mix of sun and clouds Friday, and there could be a few sprinkles or patches of light rain along the front over the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama, but the air will be very dry, and the chance of rain is so small across North-Central Alabama that we won’t mention it in the forecast. The GFS is printing a high of 69 Friday afternoon, but we turn sharply colder Friday night.

CHILL IN THE AIR THIS WEEKEND: The 12Z GFS shows a high of only 51 degrees for Birmingham Saturday with a stiff north breeze averaging 10-20 mph. The sky will be mostly sunny, but once the sun goes down Saturday evening temperatures will drop quickly, and we will wind up in the 20s early Sunday morning, which should be our coldest morning so far this fall. Then, Sunday promises to be cool and dry with a high in the upper 50s.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Friday night will be dry and cold for the remaining high school playoff games; the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling into the 40s during the games with a north breeze of 10-15 mph.

Then, the biggest game of the year in our state is Saturday, and the weather will be cold and dry for the Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa (2:30 p.m. kickoff). The sky will be clear; the kickoff temperature will be around 51 degrees, falling into the 40s by halftime, and possibly into the upper 30s by the final whistle. A brisk north wind of 10-20 mph will make it feel colder.

NEXT WEEK: We will mention a chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday. Model consistency has not been good; the last few GFS runs have suggested no severe weather threat, but we have seen other GFS runs, and one or two Euro runs that do show a severe weather look. We will just have to wait and see… one way or another much colder air should follow the storms over the latter half of the week. See the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s new episode we recorded last night.

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I had a great time today visiting with the 5th and 6th graders at East Elementary School in Cullman…. be watching for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted early tomorrow morning by 7:00 a.m….

Mild Thanksgiving Day; Colder Weekend

| 6:04 am November 20, 2012

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

THIS MORNING: We note a few echoes on radar early this morning over West-Central Alabama; specifically over parts of Sumter, Greene, Hale, and Marengo Counties. While much of this is probably evaporating before reaching the ground; based on the strength of the returns a few sprinkles are possible around Demopolis and Gallion as I write this at 5:30 a.m. These sprinkles should vanish off the radar soon, probably by the time you read this, and most of Alabama will be dry today with a mix of sun and clouds. The high this afternoon will be in the 65 to 68 degree range.

TOMORROW AND THANKSGIVING DAY: Delightful weather is the story. The high will be very close to 70 degrees, about 5 degrees above average for mid to late November, with a good supply of sunshine both days. Mornings will be cool with lows in the 40s.

FRIDAY FRONT: A cold front will move through the state on Friday. This will drag some clouds into Alabama, and the latest GFS runs hint at a few sprinkles over the Tennessee Valley region of North Alabama, but significant rain is not likely, and for now we will leave the forecast dry. We stay relatively mild with a high in the mid to upper 60s.

SHARPLY COLDER SATURDAY: MOS (model output statistics) numbers continue to come down… the GFS is now printing a high of only 52 degrees for Birmingham on Saturday with a chilly north wind of 10-20 mph. Many places north of Birmingham won’t make it out of the 40s despite a sunny sky. And, freezing temperatures are likely by daybreak Sunday with lows in the 25 to 30 degree range. Sunday will be sunny and cool with a high in the upper 50s.

IRON BOWL FORECAST: It will be a breezy and cold day in Tuscaloosa Saturday. The sky will be sunny at kickoff, but the temperature will be only around 52 degrees at the opening whistle with a cool north wind of 10-20 mph. Then, temperatures will drop quickly into the 40s by halftime, and I would not be shocked if we see upper 30s by the end of the game. A good warm jacket is in order for sure.

NEXT WEEK: No doubt the pattern suggests active weather next week, but not much clarity in details. Some GFS runs, and the ECMWF, are suggesting a system in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame that could bring potential for strong storms to Alabama, followed by a shot of much colder air over the latter half of the week. See the Weather Xtreme video for the details and graphics.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s new episode recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have a weather program this morning at Cullman East Elementary School…. look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

WeatherBrains 356: Jungle Music

| 4:55 am November 20, 2012

WeatherBrains Episode 356 is now online (November 19, 2012). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeatherTonight’s Guest WeatherBrain, Jesse Ferrell, is the Social Media Coordinator at AccuWeather. When he got out of college in 1995, he missed the daily interaction amongst the meteorology students and professors. As a result, he started his own online weather organization, WeatherMatrix, and now he manages the communities of weather enthusiasts at AccuWeather, including the photo gallery, forums, Twitter account, and Facebook Pages.

Some of his earliest memories include his mother telling him that his first sentence was: “Dark; might rain more” as a thunderstorm approached his childhood home in the Piedmont of North Carolina. Like many weather enthusiasts, he was intensely interested in the weather at a very young age. His house was struck by lightning in 1987 and Hurricane Hugo in 1989 which solidified his career path.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 82 at Brownsville and Harlingen, TX, and 7 at Alamosa, CO
  • Pacific Northwest active
  • Nice Thanksgiving for much of US except Northwest US
  • 10 to 30 inches of new snow in western Washington
  • High wind in Northwest US
  • and more!

Our email bag officer is continuing to handle the incoming messages from our listeners. Keep those cards and letters coming!

From The Weather Center:

WeatherBrains 101: This week we begin a multi-part series on precipitation. There are actually three basic categories of precipitation, precipitation, obscuration, and other. In part one, we’ll tackle the liquid form of precipitation including specific mention of a really large rainfall average.

TWIWH: Bill Murray looks back at the week of November 19th.

Listener SurveyListener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

Web Sites from Episode 356:

AccuWeather

Jesse’s AccuWeather Blog

Picks of the Week:

JB Elliott – Gets The Horn ! !

Nate Johnson – WKRP’s Turkey’s Away

Bill Murray – James Spann: The Universal Weatherman

Brian Peters – Science Daily

Kevin Selle – The Intention Economy

James Spann – Brisbane Superstorms November 17-18

JP Spann – Information on Dr. Ted Fujita

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like JB Elliott, Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

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