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Central Alabama 7 Day Forecast

Archive for December 4th, 2012

A Few Showers Through Tomorrow

| 3:43 pm December 4, 2012

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: Rain is mainly along and west of a line from Scottsboro to Birmingham to Marion to Thomasville this afternoon. We note a few thunderstorms over Northeast Mississippi north of Tupelo. Showers will move eastward tonight, and we will maintain the chance of some rain at times tonight and tomorrow. Possibly a little thunder, but no severe weather.

I still expect rain amounts to be generally less than one-half inch over Alabama, with the heavier totals to the west over Mississippi, where some communities could see one inch. The showers will taper off tomorrow evening, but we won’t see any really colder or drier air.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The weather on these days will remain unseasonably mild, with highs in the 68-71 degree range. However, the big exception could be East Alabama thanks to the cold air damming effect. This is when very cold air from the Northeast U.S. drains down the Appalachian Mountains; often reaching some East Alabama counties. Places like Cedar Bluff, Centre, Piedmont, Heflin, and Wedowee could see a high only in the upper 50s by Friday, while places like Tuscaloosa and Fayette will be closer to 70.

A moist airmass will stay in place, so a rogue shower could pop up in a few places, but most communities will be dry.

WEEKEND FORECAST: I honestly think most of the weekend will be rain-free for Alabama, as the best chance of rain will be to the north near a stalled surface front over North Tennessee. No doubt there could be a shower or two in spots Saturday and Sunday, but they should be few and far between. And, the very mild weather continues with a high in the low 70s both days.

NEXT WEEK: A fairly dynamic system is expected to bring a round of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Not sure we will have a severe weather threat, but it is not totally out of the question. The 12Z GFS is not really bullish on severe weather, but we will keep an eye on trends. This could bring one inch of rain to the northern half of Alabama, which is some rain we really need. Then, cooler and drier air moves in on Wednesday. This will the first phase of a cool down we expect over the latter half of December.

LONG RANGE: The real cool-down still seems ahead in the December 16-23 time frame, when the upper air pattern finally flips as a long wave ridge forms over the western half of the continent, with a downstream trough to the east. Nobody knows how cold it will get here, but it certainly should bring an end to the unseasonable warmth. Remember, it is brutally cold up north… up in the source region the community of Chicken, Alaska has dropped to 56 below zero in recent days. We will need to keep an eye on that air as it drops slowly southward. See the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s new episode recorded last night.

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I had a great time today visiting the 5th graders at Southside Elementary School in Etowah County… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Showers Return To Alabama

| 6:14 am December 4, 2012

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

STILL VERY MILD TODAY: Yesterday’s official high in Birmingham was 73 degrees… that was three short of the record high of 76 set in 1933 and 1982. Today’s record high is 78 set in 1998; I think that record is safe also, but we are still projecting a high in the low 70s today with an increase in clouds.

We do note a few sprinkles near the Alabama/Mississippi border on radar this morning. A few raindrops are possible over the far western counties of the state during the day today, but most of Alabama should remain dry.

SHOWERS RETURN: We will mention a chance of showers tonight and tomorrow statewide. For the eastern half of the state, the best chance of showers will come after midnight tonight; West Alabama could see some rain at times this evening. The NAM has become a little more aggressive with rain; it shows 0.46″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is drier with 0.32″. There is not any really strong dynamic support, and we will project rain amounts of less than 1/2 inch for most of our state.

The surface front will fizzle out over our region tomorrow before any really cool air can return; the GFS shows a high of 69 tomorrow and Thursday, only slightly below highs of recent days.

We do note a wedge pattern setting up east of here tomorrow and Thursday; we will keep an eye on that to see if any of the colder air can drain into East Alabama, but for now it looks like the bulk of the CAD (cold air damming) impact will be over Georgia and points northeast.

I think the weather will be generally dry Thursday and Friday, but there will be a pretty decent amount of low level moisture in place, so a rogue shower can’t be ruled out in a few places. Highs will be in the mid to upper 60s.

WEEKEND FORECAST: I really don’t think the weather changes much Saturday and Sunday. A cold front will be stalled north of here, and while we will have a fair amount of low level moisture in place, there is no real dynamic support for rain. Any showers Saturday should be few and far between, and mainly over the northern quarter of the state. Sunday looks mostly dry as well statewide. And, we stay very mild with a high at or just over 70 degrees both days.

NEXT WEEK: A rather dynamic weather system will impact Alabama around Tuesday. Some global model runs have shown a severe weather type setup for the state, followed by noticeably colder air on Wednesday. No way we can be really specific on this right now, and it is just too early to know if we will indeed have a risk of strong to severe storms, but we will keep an eye on it. One way or another it does look like a pretty good rain event with potential for one inch of rain for the northern half of the state; we sure could use that.

MID-MONTH PATTERN CHANGE? Odds remain high the upper air pattern will flip at mid-month, with potential for a cold change here in the December 16-22 time frame. Temperatures over Alaska and the western half of Canada remain brutally cold, and some of that air is poised to break away and move down this way. The first part of it arrives around the middle of next week, but the deeper part of the airmass should arrive before Christmas. Operational runs will come and go on this idea, but the ensembles and common sense sure support the idea. See the Weather Xtreme video for more details and the graphics.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be doing a weather program today at Southside Elementary School in Etowah County… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

WeatherBrains 358: Female Lady Women

| 5:10 am December 4, 2012

WeatherBrains Episode 358 is now online (December 3, 2012). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Troy Christensen, KFOR-TVTroy Christensen is the weekend morning meteorologist for KFOR-TV Channel 4 in Oklahoma City. Like many television meteorologists, Troy has had a passion for weather from a young age. Some of his first weather related memories included reading about clouds and taking daily rainfall measurements. His passion brought him to the University of Oklahoma where he studied meteorology and journalism. While in college, Troy was a Weather Anchor for OU Nightly, the University of Oklahoma’s award-winning daily newscast. He also took part in forecasting accuracy competitions and the student-run weather forecasting service. Troy worked as a meteorologist for KLBK in Lubbock, TX, for several years before returning to Oklahoma City.

Troy is experienced in tracking severe weather from storm chaser and emergency management standpoints. He is also trained in disaster preparedness and response, as well as emergency communications. Troy is a member of the American Meteorological Society and interned with meteorologists from WGN-TV and WLS-TV in Chicago. Troy is a native of Naperville, IL, a suburb of Chicago, but he also lived in Germany as an exchange student for almost two years.

When his mind is not focused on the weather, Troy has many interests including hiking, traveling, watching Chicago Cubs and Bears games, and skiing.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes 88 at Alice, TX, and 11 at Lake Yellowstone, WY
  • -50 at Northway, AK
  • Mild weather covers about half of the country while the western sections are much colder
  • and more!

Our email bag officer is back to handle the incoming messages from our listeners.

From The Weather Center:

WeatherBrains 101: Besides precipitation which can reduce visibility, we have a number of other items which can also pose problems for visibility. So this week we take a look at such things as ash and sand!

TWIWH: Bill Murray looks back at the week of December 3rd.

Listener SurveyListener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

Web Sites from Episode 358:

KFOR-TV News Channel 4

KFOR-TV Weather

Picks of the Week:

Troy Christensen – Ken Burns Dust Bowl production

Nate Johnson – Bryan Norcross Blog

Brian Peters – National Snow Analysis from NWS

Kevin Selle – Digital Meteorologist

James Spann – NCAR/NCEP Snow Analysis from FSU

JP Spann – Mama Mia, an Italian Tornado

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

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