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Central Alabama 7 Day Forecast

Archive for December 6th, 2012

Mild Through Sunday; Then Much Colder

| 3:48 pm December 6, 2012

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THIS AFTERNOON: Montgomery and Tuscaloosa have soared to 75 degrees this afternoon; Birmingham reports 71 degrees at 3:00. Today’s average high is 58, and the record high for Birmingham is 78 set in 1998. The sky is partly sunny and there is no rain in progress across the state.

HERE COMES THE WEDGE: To the east, the CAD (cold air damming) effect is pulling down much colder air. Gainesville, Georgia is at 53 degrees, and Hickory, North Carolina reports 49. Some of this colder air will slip into Alabama from the east tonight, and temperatures tomorrow should be a bit cooler. Some of the communities near the Georgia border won’t get out of the 50s tomorrow; Birmingham’s high should be in the mid 60s, but close to the Mississippi border the high will be near 70. The sky will be mostly cloudy tomorrow, but showers should be very hard to find.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The wedge breaks down, and we warm up again. Most locations over the weekend will enjoy a high between 70 and 73 degrees. The sky will be cloudy at times, and a few widely scattered showers could pop up, especially on Saturday, but widespread rain isn’t expected, and the sun should peek out at times.

BIG CHANGES NEXT WEEK: The 12Z GFS is slower with the front and cold air arrival Monday. The latest run hints the main window for showers and storms will come from 6:00 a.m. until 6:00 p.m. Monday, and perhaps a little higher chance of strong/severe storms as the air will be more unstable, and a surface low shows up along the front over North Alabama. Rain amounts of 1/2 inch are likely, and some spots could see up to one inch with the stronger storms. If we do have any severe weather issue, more than likely the main problem will come from straight line winds. With the slower arrival of the front, we should reach the mid 60s Monday afternoon.

COLDER AIR BLOWS IN: Sure looks like we have a hard time getting out of the 40s Tuesday with very chilly north breeze, and we will be below freezing by early Wednesday, with 20s likely. Interesting to note the new 12Z GFS has no sign of the big wet-down Thursday we have seen on prior runs; needless to say the confidence in the forecast solution late next week is not very high.

LATER IN THE MONTH: The pattern continues to look generally colder for much of the continental U.S. over the latter half of December, but it is way too early to be specific about how cold, and when the various cold shots will arrive. See the Weather Xtreme video for details and all of the graphics.

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Much Colder Early Next Week

| 5:59 am December 6, 2012

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

MILD THROUGH SUNDAY: Today will be another day with temperatures well above average for early December; both the NAM and the GFS are printing a high of 72 today for Birmingham with a mix of sun and clouds. Tomorrow the good ole “wedge” could impact East Alabama, with some communities near the Georgia border possibly seeing a high in the upper 50s, but the rest of the state will be mild with upper 60s for the I-65 corridor, and low 70s for West Alabama. The sky will be generally cloudy, but the sun could peek out at times.

Not much change for the weekend. Very mild Saturday and Sunday with a high in the low 70s. The sky will be occasionally cloudy, and a shower or two could pop up both days, but they should be few and far between.

BIG CHANGE: A dynamic upper air system will drive a strong surface cold front through Alabama Monday morning. Ahead of the front, a band of showers and storm thunderstorms are likely with rain amounts of around 1/2 inch for most places. The primary window for the rain should come from about midnight Sunday night through 9:00 a.m. Monday, and for now the chance of organized severe weather looks low with limited instability values and marginal lapse rates and helicity values. No doubt some of the storms will be strong with gusty winds, but generally speaking at this point the overall severe weather risk looks low.

Temperatures Monday should go the wrong way. We could very well begin the day, during the pre-dawn hours, in the 60s, but after the storms pass we fall through the 50s, and could very well reach the 40s by the afternoon with an icy north wind.

Then, we go below freezing early Tuesday morning of next week with lows in the 20s. A light freeze is possible Wednesday morning as well.

Then, on Thursday, the 00Z GFS shows a robust rain event for the state thanks to a surface low lifting out of the Gulf of Mexico.

THE LAND OF VOODOO: Another cold shot is likely before Christmas, but how cold, and exactly how and when it gets here will be up for debate until we get closer. The 00Z GFS actually shows a significant severe weather setup around December 18, followed by a shot of much colder air on the 19th with highs only in the 30s and some risk of scattered light snow flurries. See the Weather Xtreme video for the details and all of the graphics.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon…. enjoy the day….