Archive for December 15th, 2012
Looking at this forecast model for in the morning. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be happening from Central Tennessee south and west into East Texas. Some of these storms could be strong, however additional storms are expected to develop later in day. Those are the storms we will really have to watch out for as the Storm Prediction Center will have much of the Deep South under a severe weather risk to start the day tomorrow. The dynamics will be coming together tomorrow for the threat of severe weather, specifically damaging winds and the threat for some isolated tornadoes. Most of the severe weather threat for Alabama looks as though it will be later in the day tomorrow and overnight into Monday.
Many areas could see over an inch of rain from this storm system as the atmosphere has moistened up today and will continue to overnight. Warm air advection is occurring across the Southeast and this will provide the instability for any showers, thunderstorms and any severe weather that may develop. Make sure to have that rain gear handy if you are heading anywhere tomorrow as rain chances will be high all day. We will keep you updated on the threats of severe weather if it develops.
As we head into the early evening, the forecast model shows showers developing along the boundary to our west and maybe into western Alabama. The storm system in the Southwest will begin to move east along with a front. Showers and some thunderstorms are expected with this system by this evening across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Some of these storms could be strong and may reach severe limits briefly. No risk has been issued by the SPC for today. Warm air advection is overspreading the Southeast bringing with it moisture. Some showers are expected to develop by early this evening in Southeast Texas along the trough axis. This unsettled weather will be moving our direction overnight. Not expecting severe weather tonight, but some heavy downpours may be likely.
Depending where you are, skies conditions vary. A mix of sun and clouds across much of Alabama and the Southeast. There are peeks of sunshine, especially in the Northeastern part of Alabama. Overall, many places across the state have broken to overcast skies. There were even a few sprinkles this morning, but most areas are rain free this afternoon. Weather conditions will be changing as we head into the overnight hours as a strong storm system will be approaching. Expect more clouds with showers and thunderstorms especially into the overnight hours and tomorrow morning.
The Storm Prediction Center has continued to keep much of the Deep South under a risk for severe weather tomorrow. A strong storm system will be ejecting out of the Desert Southwest, into the Southern Plains and will be working its way east tomorrow. This a very dynamic system and will be the main reason for the expected severe weather tomorrow. Birmingham, Huntsville, Gadsden, Anniston, Montgomery, Clanton, Cullman, Tuscaloosa, Jasper and Demopolis are all included in the outlined risk.
The last few models runs have come into better agreement on the timing of the event. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be impacting the region in the morning. Some may be strong but the real threat looks as though it will be impacting Alabama into the overnight hours on Sunday and into Monday. Initial thunderstorms will develop along the Texas and Louisiana Coast tomorrow, this activity will be moving our direction during the day. Depending on the amount of instability that builds in we should be looking at mostly a damaging winds event. Isolated tornadoes will be possible, especially with the development of supercells. We will be watching this situation carefully and will be updating it as soon as additional weather data becomes available.
Just prior to 12 noon, clouds covered much of Alabama. The cloud cover was not total with some breaks in the clouds here and there. The extreme northeast corner as well as the southeast quadrant had the least amount of clouds.
The cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures in check just a little. Observations from the 11 o’clock hour showed South Alabama to be in the lower 60s with Central and North Alabama in the 50s, primarily mid and upper 50s. It’s still possible that we will see highs reach the lower 60s for most locations with a steady southerly wind. And a few spots that get a bit more sun with some of those breaks could still see the middle 60s.
The first in a series of three upper air disturbances has moved by us, so we probably won’t see much in the way of patchy rain or showers this afternoon like we saw this morning. With the clouds, a sprinkle is always possible. The second one comes by about midday on Sunday followed by the third one late Sunday night and early Monday. It still appears possible for a few severe storms early Monday, but the overall conditions are still marginal especially related to instability. We’ll be watching how that system unfolds. After all, our Fall severe weather season can spill into the middle of December, so severe weather is not completely out of the question. Lower levels of the atmosphere appear primed with dew points expected to reach the lower 60s.
Keep updated on the latest weather by checking here periodically for the latest information.