Archive for December 16th, 2012

New Day One

| December 16, 2012 @ 6:59 am

The Storm Prediction Center’s first severe weather outlook of the day didn’t include Birmingham, as James noted earlier.

But the 7 a.m. update did nudge the severe weather risk eastward a bit, as you can see in this graphic from the College of DuPage. This graphic compares the current one with the last one issued.

2012-12-16_07-08-37

Here is a close up of where the actual line lies on the update using the MyWARN app:

2012-12-16_07-33-04

Where the line is isn’t important, because the main point is that there is a severe weather threat across Central Alabama through early Monday morning.

Active Weather Day Ahead

| December 16, 2012 @ 6:29 am

Brian Peters will be along shortly with a detailed discussion and Weather Xtreme video; here are some notes on what to expect today…

*LOTS OF RAIN: Heavy rain is already in place this morning over Northwest Alabama… see the radar below…

Screen Shot 2012-12-16 at 6.21.43 AM

This batch of heavy and and storms will slowly drop southward this morning. The storms are not severe, and severe weather is not expected this morning. But, the rain will be heavy at times.

The 4km NAM is projecting 1-2 inches of rain over this part of Alabama through tomorrow morning, and no doubt some spots will get more, potentially leading to some localized flooding problems.

hires_t_precip_tx_20-2

*SEVERE WEATHER? SPC has actually removed most of Alabama from the severe weather threat today; just a a few west-central counties are involved…

day1otlk_1200-1

However, there seems to be a window for some late night problems over Alabama as shear increases along with the low level jet. Below is the projected radar reflectivity at 4:00 a.m. Monday…

hires_ref_tx_29

The main window for severe weather will come from midnight tonight until 8:00 a.m. tomorrow, primarily along and south of I-20. This is a fairly marginal threat due to limited instability, but with the projected low level shear a few tornadoes can’t be ruled out, so this will be a night when you want to be sure your NOAA Weather Radio or smart phone app is properly programmed and ready for action.

More details soon…