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Central Alabama 7 Day Forecast

Archive for December 17th, 2012

More Storms By Thursday

| 3:38 pm December 17, 2012

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RIGHT NOW: The sky is clearing over the northwest counties of Alabama this afternoon, and all of the state will go clear early tonight as dry air takes over. The weather will turn a bit cooler; most places will see a low near 40 degrees early tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow promises to be a beautiful day, with sunshine in full supply and a high close to 60 degrees.

MORE STORMS: We stay during the day Wednesday with lots of sun and a high in the upper 60s, but to the west SPC has defined a severe weather risk over much of Arkansas, North Louisiana, and West Mississippi as strong to severe storms are expected to form by late afternoon.

Those storms will move into Alabama during the pre-dawn hours Thursday. Looks like our main window for storms will be from about 3:00 a.m. until 12:00 noon Thursday. For now SPC does not have any severe weather risk defined for Alabama due to the lack of instability, but we do note the 12Z NAM does show a tongue of surface based instability moving up into Alabama Thursday morning. Shear values are pretty high, so we will still need to monitor this system for severe weather potential.

At this point I would suggest the best chance of severe storms Thursday morning will be along and south of I-85, but I can’t rule out a severe storm or two along the squall line up this way. The primary threat will be from strong straight line winds, with some potential for isolated tornadoes mainly over Southeast Alabama.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The weather turns sharply colder Thursday night, and we should be below freezing early Friday. The sun will out in full force Friday, but even with that we will have a hard time getting out of the 40s, and another freeze is likely at daybreak Saturday. The weekend will be cool and dry with highs in the mid to upper 50s, exactly where we should be in late December in Alabama.

DREAMING OF A STORMY CHRISTMAS? We have good agreement with the GFS and the ECMWF; both show a very dynamic storm system impacting Alabama in the December 25-26 time frame with the dual threat of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms. Needless to say, it is way too early to be specific; once we get Thursday’s system out of here we can really focus on this one. But, unfortunately it looks like we might be busy in the weather office around Christmas time.

And, both models show a shot of very cold air blowing in here following the Dec 25-26 storm system; the ECMWF is hinting at highs in the 30s and potential for lows in the teens by Thursday of next week (December 27). See the Weather Xtreme video for all of the maps, graphics, and details.

For those traveling at Christmas, we should point out the system that is expected to bring rain and strong storms to Alabama has the potential for heavy snow over East Oklahoma into Missouri. Maybe even a few snow flakes down into North Texas.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s episode tonight at 8:30 p.m. CST… you can watch it live here.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Drier And Cooler Arrives Tonight

| 6:22 am December 17, 2012

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

THIS MORNING: The most active weather in the state this morning, as expected, is over the southern counties. Thankfully no severe weather issues down there overnight, but SPC is monitoring that region for a possible weather watch. Surface based instabilities have remained low with the warm front still near the Gulf Coast. Up this way, the most widespread rain is south of a line from Anniston to Brent to Uniontown and down to Mobile, but a few showers are forming between Birmingham and Tuscaloosa as I write this.

Showers and storms will end from west to east during the midday hours, and the sky will clear early tonight and cooler and drier air moves into the state.

TOMORROW: Should be a beautiful December day. We start the day in the 38-41 degree range, and then with sunshine in full supply we expect a high in the low 60s. Doesn’t get much better.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM: Wednesday will be dry and warmer with a high in the upper 60s, but to the west a major storm system will form and will pull moist air rapidly into Alabama Wednesday night with an increasing south wind. To the west, SPC has the standard “slight risk” of severe weather up Wednesday for much of Arkansas, as well as parts of North Louisiana and West Mississippi. Thunderstorms should fire up in this region in the warm sector of the big mid-latitude cyclone, and some could be severe.

Here in Alabama, it looks like the main window for storms with this system will come from about 2:00 a.m. until 12:00 noon Thursday. SPC has dropped the formal severe weather risk for Alabama due to the lack of instability; the GFS keeps the LI (Lifted Index) positive through the event, meaning no real surface based instability. But, the helicity will be very adequate for severe weather; the surface-925 mb bulk shear is around 30 knots here.

This is a fairly common setup during the cold weather season here; very low CAPE (instability), and high shear. They can be problematic, and severe storms can form sometimes when you don’t expect them. So, for now, a major severe weather issue doesn’t look likely considering the lack of instability and the time of day, but we will have to watch model trends closely as the event gets closer.

Rain amounts of about 1/2 inch seem likely, with some spots possibly getting up to one inch.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The weather turns sharply colder on Friday as we will struggle to get out of the 40s. But, the air will be very dry and Friday should feature a good supply of sunshine. Saturday morning will be cold; we should be in the 20s to start the weekend.

The weather will be dry Saturday and Sunday, with highs in the 55-59 degree range. Sunday morning will feature a low in the low to mid 30s.

CHRISTMAS WEATHER: Earlier this month most of the global models looked pretty cold at Christmas here; but now that we are out of “voodoo range” and can take a good look at it, temperatures look very seasonal for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Highs in the 50s, lows in the upper 30s. Exactly where we should be in late December in Alabama. At this point the weather looks dry Monday and on most of Christmas Day, but another major storm system shows up with rain and storms Tuesday night into Wednesday. See the Weather Xtreme video for the day by day breakdown and the maps.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record this week’s episode tonight at 8:30 p.m. CST… you can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be at a teacher appreciation lunch today at Greystone Elementary School… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Showers and Thunderstorms Increasing

| 4:22 am December 17, 2012

Latest look at the radar shows showers and thunderstorms have began to redevelop across southern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama. This activity will be tracking off to the northeast ans will be expanding in coverage. There is still a chance of severe weather especially in the southern counties of the state. Damaging winds will be the greatest threat.

12-17-2012 4-08-50 AM

As we look at the simulated radar over the next couple of hours this morning, much of Central Alabama looks to get wet this morning. Heavier activity is expected from Birmingham, Tuscaloosa and Anniston south towards Montgomery.This activity will continue to move northeast through the morning and into the early afternoon.
12-17-2012 4-16-55 AM