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Archive for January 3rd, 2013

Cold Night Ahead

| 3:32 pm January 3, 2013

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THIS AFTERNOON: As advertised, most of North and Central Alabama are now in full sunshine, but temperatures remain cold. Readings are generally in the 43-48 degree range despite the blue sky and sunshine. A cold night is ahead; most locations around here will wind up in the mid to upper 20s early tomorrow.

Tomorrow will feature a partly to mostly sunny with a high in the low 50s, right at seasonal levels for early January in Alabama.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Clouds will increase on Saturday ahead of an upper trough, but the low levels are dry and significant precipitation is not expected, although a few sprinkles/flurries/sleet patches are not out of the question Saturday night and Sunday morning. Highs will be mostly in the 50s this weekend.

NEXT WEEK: No doubt we will see a significant rain event at mid-week, but model madness means the timing of the event is a low confidence forecast. The 12Z GFS continues the idea of showers and storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, while the 12Z ECMWF is 24 hours slower… holding off the rain until Wednesday night and Thursday. The Euro solution is most likely the best idea, and we will roll with that timing in the forecast. While the dynamics with the system are fairly impressive, the thermodynamics are very so-so, so severe weather looks unlikely at this point. We will fine tune the forecast as the event gets closer.

VOODOO LAND: The GFS is still advertising pretty impressive cold shots around January 12, and then again January 16. No sign of any snow/winter weather issues, however… see the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For Bama fans headed to the BCS National Championship game (to be played next Monday night, January 7), we note the 4:00 p.m. EST temperature in Miami is 80 degrees this afternoon. Expect similar warmth on game day; the high Monday will be close to 80, and for the game we project a kickoff temperature near 72 degrees. A passing shower is possible during the game, but the chance is only in the 20 to 30 percent range.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Clearing; Not As Cold

| 6:02 am January 3, 2013

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

CLOUDS TO MOVE OUT: We all know how stubborn clouds can be in Alabama this time of the year, and clouds are still in place statewide this morning, with light rain falling generally from Montgomery south. We will be bold and daring, and project a clearing sky from the northwest today as the wave to the south lifts out. Most of North and Central Alabama should see sunshine by the lunch hour. And, with some sun returning, the day won’t be as cold as yesterday; most places will see a high in the 47-50 degree range this afternoon.

With a fair sky tonight, most communities around here should wind up in the 24-29 degree range early tomorrow. Then, the day tomorrow should feature ample sunshine along with a high not too far from 50 degrees.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: A short wave will push come clouds into the state over the weekend, and it might even squeeze out a sprinkle or two Saturday night or Sunday, but the low levels will be extremely dry and nothing really significant is expected. Looks like highs over the weekend will be in the low to mid 50s, right at seasonal values for early January in Alabama.

MODEL MADNESS NEXT WEEK: No doubt a significant weather system will bring rain back to Alabama next week, but there is a huge spread in the latest operational runs of the GFS and the ECMWF. The 06Z GFS shows the big batch of rain and storms late Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by drier and cooler air Wednesday and Thursday. But, this run is clearly an outlier; other GFS runs and the Euro support the best chance of rain holding off until Wednesday night or Thursday.

The dynamics will be pretty impressive, so the system next week will need to be monitored for severe weather potential, but as usual this time of the year the thermodynamics are very marginal. See the Weather Xtreme video for the details and graphics.

MID-MONTH COLD? There is high confidence in one or two really deep cold shots for the eastern U.S. at mid-month, but there are more questions than answers at this point. The 06Z GFS shows very cold air around January 12, and again on January 16, but I sure wouldn’t take that to the bank. And, still no sign of any big snow events for Alabama despite the cold possibilities. Again, take a few minutes to see the Weather Xtreme video for deeper details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video later this afternoon by 4:00… enjoy the day!