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Central Alabama 7 Day Forecast

Archive for January 4th, 2013

Clouds Arrive Tomorrow, But Not Much Rain

| 3:29 pm January 4, 2013

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

FEELS BETTER TODAY: Birmingham reached 50 degrees at 2:00 with a sunny sky; to the south Montgomery is at 56. Almost like a heat wave compared to recent days. Tonight will be cold again with another freeze likely for most communities around here.

CLODUS MOVE IN TOMORROW: A disturbance over New Mexico will lift northeast, and bring clouds into Alabama tomorrow along with the risk of a little scattered light rain. The best chance of seeing a raindrop or two will come from about noon until midnight… the low levels will be fairly dry, and rain amounts should be light and spotty. Many places won’t get enough to measure. We expect to see some sunshine returning by Sunday afternoon as the wave moves east of Alabama, and highs over the weekend will be in the 50s.

NEXT WEEK: A major storm system will develop over Texas, and promises to bring a good wet-down at mid-week, but major timing differences remain between the GFS and the Euro models. The GFS shows the rain coming late Tuesday afternoon, Tuesday night, and into early Wednesday, while the ECMWF holds off the rain until Wednesday night and Thursday. A little surprising to see this difference so close to the event; we will continue to lean toward the slower ECMWF for now. This is a classic cold season case of a storm system with excellent dynamics, but very marginal thermodynamics. I expect to see some elevated thunderstorms, but severe weather looks very unlikely for now with no surface based instability. Rain amounts of one to two inches are likely.

Drier air arrives at the end of the week on Friday (one week from today), but not colder. In fact, we might see the low 60s Friday of next week.

MID-MONTH COLD WAVE: We continue to see excellent consistency in the idea of some very cold air moving down into the continental U.S. in the January 15-19 time frame. Supporting the GFS idea is a crashing AO (Arctic Oscillation), and the idea of SSW (sudden stratospheric warming), which often signals very cold air in the troposphere. Not much to get snow lovers excited since the incoming cold air is very dry. See the Weather Xtreme video for details and all the graphics.

BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP WEATHER: If you are headed to Miami for Monday’s Alabama/Notre Dame game, expect highs around 80 each day through early next week. For the game Monday night, the kickoff temperature will be in the mid 70s, and there is a 20-30 percent risk of a passing shower during the game.

BBVA COMPASS BOWL: Birmingham’s bowl game at Legion Field, which kicks off tomorrow at 12:00 noon, will be played under a mostly cloudy sky. We can’t rule out a little light rain during the game, and temperatures will rise from near 49 at kickoff into the low 50s by the fourth quarter.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday… my next Weather Xtreme video will be posted bright and early Monday morning by 7 a.m. Enjoy the weekend!

Dry Today; Not As Cold

| 6:04 am January 4, 2013

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

COLD START: Here are some 5:00 a.m. temperatures across the great state of Alabama… one of our coldest mornings so far this winter…

Valley Head 21
Black Creek (just northeast of Gadsden) 21
Haleyville 23
Concord 24
Snead 25
Crossville 25
Fayette 25
Anniston 26
Bessemer 26
Birmingham 27
Tuscaloosa 29
Chelsea 29

We will enjoy a good supply of sunshine today through scattered clouds, and there is a recent chance we reach the 50 degree mark for the first time since New Year’s Day, when the high in Birmingham was 55 (although that was reached just after midnight).

OUR WEEKEND: We expect a general increase in clouds tomorrow in advance of the next short wave, but moisture is very limited, and we don’t expect anything past a few sprinkles tomorrow afternoon, tomorrow night, or very early Sunday. Highs over the weekend should be in the 50s, not far from seasonal averages.

NEXT WEEK: Confidence is high in a mid-week soaking rain event, but timing remains problematic since the GFS and the ECMWF are still about 24 hours apart. The GFS brings the rain in here Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning, while the Euro holds the rain off until Wednesday night and Thursday. We will continue to buy into the ECMWF solution for now. The good news is that there is no surface based instability, and severe weather is not expected, although some elevated convection is certainly possible within the large rain mass. Looks like rain amounts of 1-2 inches can be expected.

Drier air returns at the end of next week, but it won’t be colder. In fact, we might see 60 degrees by Friday of next week.

BIG MID-MONTH COLD SHOT? The GFS is very consistent with the idea of very cold air moving down into the “lower 48″ later in the month. The first cold blast arrives around Sunday January 13, followed a rain event on 1/13. But, the coldest air shows up around January 16-20. If you buy the GFS low level thickness scheme, sub-zero readings could possible as far south as NE Tennessee, and single digits lows down into North Alabama. We caution you, this is all voodoo for now, but the consistency has our attention. There is also evidence of a SSW pattern (sudden stratospheric warming) similar to 12/1984-1/1985, which did indeed bring single digit lows down into Alabama.

Unfortunately for the snow lovers we really don’t see much on the maps now to suggest anything really interesting for them, but with such cold air possible they might have something to talk about later in the month. It will be interesting to watch; stay tuned…

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon…. enjoy the day….