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FEELS BETTER TODAY: Birmingham reached 50 degrees at 2:00 with a sunny sky; to the south Montgomery is at 56. Almost like a heat wave compared to recent days. Tonight will be cold again with another freeze likely for most communities around here.
CLODUS MOVE IN TOMORROW: A disturbance over New Mexico will lift northeast, and bring clouds into Alabama tomorrow along with the risk of a little scattered light rain. The best chance of seeing a raindrop or two will come from about noon until midnight… the low levels will be fairly dry, and rain amounts should be light and spotty. Many places won’t get enough to measure. We expect to see some sunshine returning by Sunday afternoon as the wave moves east of Alabama, and highs over the weekend will be in the 50s.
NEXT WEEK: A major storm system will develop over Texas, and promises to bring a good wet-down at mid-week, but major timing differences remain between the GFS and the Euro models. The GFS shows the rain coming late Tuesday afternoon, Tuesday night, and into early Wednesday, while the ECMWF holds off the rain until Wednesday night and Thursday. A little surprising to see this difference so close to the event; we will continue to lean toward the slower ECMWF for now. This is a classic cold season case of a storm system with excellent dynamics, but very marginal thermodynamics. I expect to see some elevated thunderstorms, but severe weather looks very unlikely for now with no surface based instability. Rain amounts of one to two inches are likely.
Drier air arrives at the end of the week on Friday (one week from today), but not colder. In fact, we might see the low 60s Friday of next week.
MID-MONTH COLD WAVE: We continue to see excellent consistency in the idea of some very cold air moving down into the continental U.S. in the January 15-19 time frame. Supporting the GFS idea is a crashing AO (Arctic Oscillation), and the idea of SSW (sudden stratospheric warming), which often signals very cold air in the troposphere. Not much to get snow lovers excited since the incoming cold air is very dry. See the Weather Xtreme video for details and all the graphics.
BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP WEATHER: If you are headed to Miami for Monday’s Alabama/Notre Dame game, expect highs around 80 each day through early next week. For the game Monday night, the kickoff temperature will be in the mid 70s, and there is a 20-30 percent risk of a passing shower during the game.
BBVA COMPASS BOWL: Birmingham’s bowl game at Legion Field, which kicks off tomorrow at 12:00 noon, will be played under a mostly cloudy sky. We can’t rule out a little light rain during the game, and temperatures will rise from near 49 at kickoff into the low 50s by the fourth quarter.
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Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday… my next Weather Xtreme video will be posted bright and early Monday morning by 7 a.m. Enjoy the weekend!