Archive for January 5th, 2013
The light showers that moved into the state are slowly beginning to move out and taper off. A few showers remain, but they will be winding down as we head through the rest of the night. Most locations picked up under a tenth of an inch as this was a light steady rain. The rain should be out of here by tomorrow morning. The clouds may hang around through the morning but should also be out of here by the afternoon allowing us to warm into the mid 50s and have a nice sunny afternoon.
Many locations across North Central Alabama are finally seeing some of the wet stuff falling from the sky. It took most of the day for the atmosphere to moisten up enough to allow for the rain to reach the ground and it looked like they were able to get the BBVA Compass Bowl in the books at Legion Field before the rain started. Not every location will see rain and what rain occurs will not amount to much. Rain is heavier and more widespread across the northern parts of Alabama. All totals should remain around a tenth of an inch. Some locations in West Alabama could see up to a quarter of an inch. The heaviest rain currently remains north and west of Birmingham and a few heavier patches in east Alabama along Hwy 431 from Anniston to Gadsden. The rain should last a few more hours and is beginning to end in Central Mississippi, and it should definitely be out of here by tomorrow morning. Be careful if you are heading out tonight, roads will be slick.
Earlier this week, the tropical basins were a bit more active. For today there are only two areas of interest, both on the other side of the Earth. Nothing to major just one invest area in the Central Indian Ocean and one tropical storm in the South China Sea.
The only named system is Tropical Storm Sonamu. Winds were sustained at 35 knots gusting to 45 knots. Sonamu will continue to drift off to the west at about 13 knots. This system will remain unorganized and is not expected to reach typhoon intensity.
A check on the radar mosaic across the Southern states shows a lot of rain falling in Mississippi and Louisiana. Rain is moving into our western counties, but has struggled to reach the ground in many locations through out the morning. The atmosphere over Alabama has been so dry but as the moisture moves in, the atmosphere is beginning to saturate and thus allowing more and more of the rain to make it to the surface. Nothing to heavy just some scattered showers impacting areas of West Alabama from Demopolis, to Tuscaloosa, Fayette, Reform, Gordo, Jasper and now stretching into West Jefferson County. Many areas will not see any rain today, but where it falls it shouldn’t be to heavy. It will make for slick roads around the areas its falling in. Rain should persist into the evening and overnight hours and should get out of here before it’s time for those Sunday morning activities around the area.
A quick look at satellite and radar this mid day shows that clouds are streaming into Alabama from the southwest, but there are still some breaks in the cloud cover especially over eastern portions of Alabama. Clouds should continue to build in across the state as an upper-level feature allows for a bit of unsettled weather across the Southeast today. Clouds will be thickening up and some areas will see some scattered showers. This disturbance should be moving out of here by in the morning taking the clouds and rain with it. Morning clouds tomorrow, but tomorrow afternoon should have ample sunshine.
On the radar, most of Central Alabama remains dry. There are a few showers moving across the Mississippi state line with some light rain falling in Lamar and Marion Counties. Not all locations will see rain today and any rain that falls at your location will be light and will not last to terribly long. Not an all day rain event, but just scattered showers through out the afternoon, evening and into tonight. Just keep that rain gear handy if you are heading out and about today.
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Clouds increased overnight with showers expected to affect our area later this morning and into the afternoon. Not everyone will see rain, and even if you are lucky enough to get a shower, rainfall amounts are not likely to be that great. Most spots will see less than a quarter of an inch. Showers diminish tonight with the weather improving on Sunday as the upper trough axis goes by during the day. This will pave the way for an upper ridge to move into the Southeast US while another strong closed low moves into Texas out of the Southwest US by Wednesday.
This next system certainly shows some potential for both a significant rain producer as well as severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center is not specifying a particular area for severe weather for a number of reasons. One of the biggest reasons concerns the huge model differences we’re seeing that far out. However, it seems that with the 06Z GFS model run and the 00Z European model run that the two models are converging on a similar solution. There are still some fairly substantial differences in the two models, however, they do present a closer look than what we’ve been seeing for the last couple of days.
The GFS is suggesting that 65-degree dew points will surge northward to the Birmingham area. CAPE values off the GFS are also into the 300 to 500 range which are more than sufficient for severe storms. So we’ll have to watch how this next system develops as we get closer to the event.
Once that system zip by us on Friday, we come back under a ridge with a continuation of a southwesterly flow pattern aloft. This again will keep us in a rather mild pattern with highs climbing into the 60s for the end of the week and the weekend.
Yet another deep trough comes out of the Southwest US on Sunday according to the GFS which poses another round of wet weather for us. Looking further into voodoo country, another wet system comes along around the 17th with a very cold look to the pattern on the 19th with a deep long wave trough over the eastern half of the country. We’ll see!!
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