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Central Alabama 7 Day Forecast

Archive for January 7th, 2013

Big Warm Up Ahead; Rain By Wednesday

| 3:31 pm January 7, 2013

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

BEAUTIFUL MONDAY: Doesn’t get much nicer across Alabama. Ample sunshine today with temperatures generally in the mid 50s, right at seasonal levels for early January. The air is dry, and humidity levels are now. Tonight will be cold again with a freeze likely for the colder valleys.

ACTIVE WEATHER AHEAD: A deep upper low over the Southwest U.S. will ultimately lift northeast, and bring a big soaking to much of the South-Central U.S. The 12Z model data agrees pretty well with previous runs, so here is the day by day breakdown…

TOMORROW: Clouds will increase, but the weather stays dry. Our high will be near 60 degrees as the “January thaw” begins. Rain and storms will break out over Texas; severe storms are possible from roughly San Antonio south to the Rio Grande.

WEDNESDAY: A warm front lifting north from the Texas low will bring occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two to Alabama. While a strong storm isn’t totally out of the question, severe weather is not expected. And, the warm-up continues with a high in the mid to upper 60s. Severe storms are possible Wednesday to the west, over parts of Southeast Texas and Louisiana.

THURSDAY: The upper system will lift northward across the Great Plains, with a surface cold front approaching the Mississippi River. A strong upper high is over the Bahamas, and should keep the main energy a little northwest of Alabama. But, there still seems to be a window for some potential for strong to severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening, mainly over the northwest counties. The area we defined this morning still looks valid; best chance of strong storms will be north of a line from Millport to Double Springs to Athens. Otherwise, we will mention a good chance of showers and storms for the rest of North and Central Alabama during the day, and we warm into the low 70s.

FRIDAY: The upper support pulls away into Canada, and the front will stall out somewhere near or just north of I-59. The day will be warm, and a few showers are possible, but the rain won’t be especially widespread or heavy. We note the GFS is printing a high of 75 degrees Friday… if we reach that we will be within three degrees of the record high for January 11, 78 set in 1949.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Not much change Saturday and Sunday. We will stay in a very warm, moist airmass for January. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s, and while a few showers are possible both days, there isn’t much dynamic support for widespread rain. The sky will be generally cloudy, although the sun could break out at times.

The 12Z GFS shows a cold front moving in Sunday night, with a good chance of showers and storms, followed by sharply colder air Monday of next week. We might have a hard time getting out of the 40s Monday with a chilly north wind, which will quite a change from the 70s we will enjoy over the weekend.

MIAMI WEATHER: Just a 10-20 percent risk of a brief passing shower during tonight’s BCS Championship Game… otherwise the sky will be mostly cloudy, with 75 degrees at kickoff, and low 70s by the final whistle.

REST OF NEXT WEEK: The latest GFS brings in another round of rain at mid-week… we will keep an eye on that since there seems to be some risk of ice on the northern periphery of the rain shield over parts of Arkansas, Tennessee, or Kentucky. Then, even colder air blows in here by the end of next week as the Deep South goes back into the Deep Freeze. Take a few minutes and watch the Weather Xtreme video for the details and graphics.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s new episode we recorded last night.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Dry Today; Mild and Wet Weather Later

| 6:19 am January 7, 2013

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

COLD START: Most communities are below freezing at daybreak this morning; temperatures include 25 at Valley Head and Black Creek, 27 at Fayette and Haleyville, 28 at Anniston, 30 at Birmingham, and 32 at Tuscaloosa. Today will be sunny and cool with a high in the low to mid 50s. But, enjoy the sun because it will go away for an extended period of time.

TO THE WEST: A deep upper low is over the Desert Southwest this morning, and will lift out in coming days bringing wet weather to much of the Central U.S. And, thankfully model agreement is much better on the system this morning. Let’s break it down on a day by day basis…

TOMORROW: Clouds will increase, but the day should be dry across the great state of Alabama. And, we start to warm up as afternoon temperatures head toward the 60 degree mark. To the west, strong to severe storms could break out over South Texas ahead of the upper system; SPC has a “slight risk” of severe weather in place there.

WEDNESDAY: A warm front extending from a surface low over South Texas will move northward through Alabama, and should bring enough lift for occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm. The day will be mild with a high in the 60s, and we won’t expect any issues with severe weather.

THURSDAY: Alabama will be in a warm, moist, unstable airmass. A good chance we see a high in the low 70s; the record low for Thursday (January 10) is 81 set in 1949… so no record warmth, but we should be about 20 degrees above average for January. The upper low will be lifting out toward the Great Lakes, and a surface cold front will slowly move toward the Mississippi River.

SPC does not have any severe weather risk areas defined for Thursday, but there seems to be a window for strong to severe storms over North Mississippi, East Arkansas, West Tennessee, and Northwest Alabama during the afternoon and evening hours. For now it looks like the greatest risk of severe storms in our state will come north of a line from Millport to Double Springs to Athens. This is where models show the best combination of instability and shear, but understand this could change as we get closer to the event.

Otherwise, Thursday will be warm and breezy with occasional showers and a few storms.

FRIDAY: The dynamic support pulls away, and a decaying front will stall somewhere around the northwest corner of Alabama. This keeps us in a warm, moist environment, but not much dynamic lift. So, Friday looks mostly cloudy with some risk of showers, but not an all-day rain, and nothing heavy. Again we should reach the low 70s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Pretty much the same story for Saturday and Sunday. Mostly cloudy and warm; highs in the low 70s, and the risk of a passing shower from time to time, but nothing really organized or heavy. Showers could show an increase in coverage late Sunday or Sunday ahead of another cold front approaching from the west. And, don’t get used to the “January thaw”, as a sharp change back to cold weather is likely next week.

NEXT WEEK: Periods of rain look likely one week from today (Monday January 14) with highs in the 50s. With a 1040 mb high over the Dakotas, that cold air will push deeper into Alabama by Tuesday, with potential for highs only in the 40s. Beyond that, we get into voodoo land and getting into specifics is almost impossible.

The 06Z GFS shows some rain in the cold air by Wednesday January 16, maybe even with some ice potential just north of here, and even colder air to follow around January 17-19. See the Weather Xtreme video for the details and graphics.

TITLE GAME: For tonight’s BCS National Championship game in Miami, the sky will be mostly cloudy with only a 10-20 percent risk of a brief, passing shower. Kickoff temperature near 75 degrees, around 72 by the final whistle.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day…

WeatherBrains 363: Freezing Your Thingy-Do Off!

| 5:00 am January 7, 2013

WeatherBrains Episode 363 is now online (January 7, 2012). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

GUEST Weatherbrain is Chief Meteorologist Jason Sydejko from KQDS Fox 21 Duluth, MN. Discussing the historic flooding from June, 2012, in Duluth.

Jason joined the FOX 21 News Team in May, 2011, as the weekend meteorologist. In July, 2011, Jason was promoted to Chief Meteorologist.

Jason was born and raised in Blaine, MN, and called Duluth home for four years as he pursued a degree in Environmental Studies from the University of Minnesota Duluth. His passion for weather led him to Mississippi State University where he graduated with a Master’s Degree in Geosciences (Broadcast Meteorology) in April, 2011.

While in Mississippi he also had the chance to work as a weekend meteorologist at WeatherVision, broadcasting the weather for nearly two dozen television stations across the Nation.

When he’s not forecasting the weather, or out chasing storms, Jason enjoys being outdoors, running, drawing, playing the guitar, and playing a mean game of scrabble!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • AMS annual meeting in Austin, TX
  • Heavy rain and possible severe weather in Texas for AMS meeting
  • 60 percent of US covered by snow
  • Big thaw coming for much of eastern US later in the week
  • and more!

Our email bag officer is continuing to handle the wonderful incoming messages from our listeners. Thanks for all the email!

From The Weather Center:

WeatherBrains 101: The first 101 segment of 2013 starts a series on Dual Polarization radar. This is going to be a multi-week series delving into the new products coming from the added capability of dual polarization.

Listener SurveyListener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

Web Sites from Episode 363:

Fox 21 Duluth KQDS-TV

Pictures of Duluth Flood, June, 2012

Picks of the Week:

Nate Johnson – Tweets from AMS
Meteorologist Crowned Miss Vermont

Brian Peters – Pacific Disaster Center

James Spann – Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems

Ryan Stinnett – Absolute Zero Pushed

Jason Sydejko – Lake Superior Waterspout

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like JB Elliott, Nate Johnson, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

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