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Archive for January 8th, 2013

Showers Return Tomorrow; Turning Much Warmer

| 3:41 pm January 8, 2013

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

THIS AFTERNOON: Not a bad day. Clouds have increased across Alabama, but they are thin enough in many places for a decent amount of filtered sunshine. And, as expected, we are turning warmer with most places somewhere between 57 and 60 degrees at mid-afternoon. There is no rain on radar around here.

ON THE MAPS: All eyes are on the deep upper low over Mexico, well south of El Paso, Texas. As this feature lifts out to the northeast, a big rain event is setting up for Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana, with rain extending into Alabama as well. A few showers could move into our state toward daybreak tomorrow.

TOMORROW/THURSDAY: We will forecast occasional showers and a few thunderstorms on both days; the rain tomorrow will be the result of a northward moving warm front. Then, another round of showers and storms is likely late Thursday and Thursday night with a surface front approaching from the west. The 12Z GFS and NAM really hint the heaviest rain, and main threat of strong/severe storms will remain west of Alabama, but we can’t rule out a strong to severe storms over the northwest counties of our state by late Thursday afternoon or Thursday evening. A marginal situation, however.

The big warm-up continues, with a high in the mid 60s tomorrow, and low 70s Thursday.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: The surface front will run out of gas somewhere over Alabama Friday as the upper support lifts well north of here. We will be left in a warm, moist environment with the risk of a few passing showers both days. But, the rain probably won’t be too widespread or heavy. Highs will be in the 71-74 degree range, which is 20 degrees above average for mid-January in Alabama. You might see a little sun at times if you are lucky.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Concern is growing over the potential for a long duration heavy rain event with the risk of flooding for the northern half of Alabama. A band of heavy rain is forecast to set up initially over the northwest corner of Alabama late Sunday, Sunday night, and Monday. That band of heavy rain will drift down toward I-59 and 20 Tuesday and Wednesday with very little southward progression. Sure looks like a situation where 2 to 4 inches of rain could very well fall, and we will have to be on our toes for flooding issues. Thankfully severe weather does not look to be a problem.

Much colder air returns to Alabama late next week; we will have a hard time getting out of the mid 40s by Friday. Take a few minutes to watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the details and graphics.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I will be away in Austin, Texas for a day or two at the AMS (American Meteorological Society) annual meeting; Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Thursday morning; I will be back in service Thursday afternoon….

Clouds Return Today; Showers By Tomorrow

| 6:12 am January 8, 2013

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

ON THE MAPS: A very deep upper low is over Mexico this morning, and as it lifts to the northeast it will bring soaking rains to much of Texas, and ultimately to Alabama. The risk of flooding, and the greatest risk of severe weather will remain west of Alabama, however. Here is the day by day breakdown…

TODAY: Clouds return to Alabama, but we stay dry. The high should be in the 57-60 degree range, and to the west rain begins to break out over Texas, where a flash flood watch is up for the I-45 corridor between Dallas and Houston. Also, severe storms are possible late today and tonight over South Texas roughly from Austin and San Antonio east to the Gulf Coast.

TOMORROW: A warm front will push northward through Alabama, with developing showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Nothing severe, and it won’t rain all day. We warm into the 65 to 69 degree range as the January thaw starts to kick in. And, more active weather to the west where heavy rain and severe storms are possible over Southeast Texas and parts of Louisiana.

THURSDAY: Showers and storms will increase across Alabama late in the day into Thursday night as the surface front approaches. There is no formal severe weather risk defined by SPC, and the severe weather threat for our state is somewhat marginal. Still, I can’t rule out a strong to severe storm Thursday evening, mainly over Northwest Alabama where you find the best combination of instability and shear. As the storms moves to the east Thursday night, the upper support pulls away and the marginal severe weather threat fades by midnight. While a few heavy downpours are possible, we don’t expect enough rain for flooding issues here. The day will be very mild with a high in the low 70s.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Warm is the word. Highs in the 72 to 75 degree range are likely… the record high for Friday (January 11) is 78 set in 1949, and the record for Saturday (January 12) is 75, set in 1916. We might give that January 12 record a run for the money. The sky will be generally cloudy both days, and while a shower or two is likely, rain should be light and not especially widespread, and the sun might even break out at times.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY: Another slow moving cold front approaches late Sunday, and there is concern this could set up a long duration, heavy rain event over North and Central Alabama with potential for flash flooding. The 06Z GFS keeps the heavy rain axis over us late Sunday night, Monday, and even on Tuesday, with potential for well over two inches of rain. Way too early to be too specific here, and this could change, but something to watch in coming days. We won’t really get into colder air until the middle of next week after the rain ends.

Thickness values suggest we won’t get out of the 40s by Wednesday of next week as cold air returns. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details, and more ideas about long range weather.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon…. enjoy the day…