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Central Alabama 7 Day Forecast

Archive for January 11th, 2013

Much Colder By Monday

| 3:41 pm January 11, 2013

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

WARM, WET WEEKEND: Temperatures across North-Central Alabama are mostly in the 60s this afternoon, but to the south, our friends in Montgomery have soared to 80 degrees at mid-afternoon. That isn’t a record, by the way, Montgomery’s record high for today is 83 set in 1949.

Patches of light rain are on radar, but nothing really widespread or heavy. Lots of low clouds and drizzle.

TOMORROW AND SUNDAY: No real change. Temperatures near record levels… highs in the mid 70s tomorrow, and low 70s Sunday. Periods of rain both days… probably no thunder, and rain won’t be all that heavy. Doubt if see any sun; if you are lucky it might peek out a time or two. Low clouds hang tough along with occasional drizzle, much like today.

TO THE WEST: SPC has introduced a “slight risk” of severe weather for parts of AR/LA and far west MS tomorrow, but all of that will remain west of our state.

COLD AIR RETURNS: Rain will become more widespread Sunday night as a cold front moves into Alabama. Thankfully this isn’t a severe weather setup, and I doubt if we get much thunder. Temperatures nose dive Sunday night, and our weather turns cold next week. Monday looks like a raw, cold, wet day with rain most of the day and temperatures in the 40s, almost 30 degrees colder than the highs we will enjoy this weekend.

Rain will continues at times Monday night and into part of the day Tuesday. Rain amounts, while very significant, are not expected to be high enough to create flash flooding problems here, although some flooding issues are possible Monday over Northwest Alabama where rain totals could exceed three inches.

The rain should diminish Tuesday, and we stay cold. Not sure we can get out of the 40s again. Finally, Wednesday looks dry with some sun possible, and a high in the low to mid 50s. Both the GFS and the ECMWF now support a dry day Wednesday.

LATE NEXT WEEK: The ECWMF brings another soaking rain event into Alabama Thursday, while the GFS is dry Thursday, with a little light rain Friday. We will continue to ride with the Euro solution and forecast a good chance of rain Thursday, followed by a dry and cold day Friday.

VOODOO LAND: The GFS is advertising an impressive cold shot around January 22… see the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday… my next Weather Xtreme video will be posted bright and early Monday morning by 7:00 a.m. Enjoy the weekend!

Cloudy, Warm, Wet

| 6:14 am January 11, 2013

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

CLOSE TO RECORDS: Here are the record highs for Birmingham each day through Sunday

Today 78 (1949)
Saturday 75 (1916)
Sunday 77 (1932)

I think if we have a shot at hitting one of these, it will be tomorrow; the GFS is printing a high of 76, while the NAM is at 75. One way or another it will be way too warm for January through the weekend with highs in the low to mid 70s, which is well above our average high of 52.

WET AT TIMES: And, the weather stays damp and gray. You might see a peek or two of sun if you are lucky, but the sky will remain mostly cloudy through Sunday with occasional showers as dewpoints remain in the 60s. We are very fortunate we won’t deal with any severe weather with this kind of airmass in place. Rain won’t be too heavy through the weekend, with three day (today through Sunday) rain totals generally one inch or less. Really doubt if we have any thunder since there is no real dynamic lift.

COLD AIR RETURNS MONDAY: A slow moving front will feature a heavy rain band near it Sunday around Memphis, and that will slowly ease into Alabama Sunday night and Monday. Monday’s temperatures will all depend on your location. For I-20 and points north, we will have a hard time getting out of the 40s, while to the south places like Montgomery and Selma will probably enjoy a high in the low 70s again.

And, in addition to being sharply colder, the weather stays wet Monday. Thankfully model QPF guidance has come down a bit, suggesting additional rain amounts on Monday around one inch, which won’t be enough for big flooding problems. Some thunder will be possible over South Alabama Monday in the warm air, but severe weather isn’t expected.

REST OF NEXT WEEK: A low confidence forecast thanks to pure model madness. The GFS pushes the rain to areas generally south of I-20 on Tuesday, and then pretty much the entire state is dry Wednesday through Friday with sunny cool days and clear cold nights. But, the ECMWF (Euro) shows a radically different solution, with a wave forming on the front to the south, with a soaking rain event for Wednesday night, Thursday, and into Thursday night. We will tend to side with the wetter ECMWF for now in our forecast package, but understand adjustments will be needed most likely.

VOODOO LAND: The GFS advertises a cold shot around January 21 with temperatures 15-20 degrees below average, followed by a slow moderating trend. Still no sign of any snow for the winter weather fans for the next 15 days; take a few minutes to watch the Weather Xtreme video for details and all the graphics.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be speaking at Samford University today… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day….