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RAIN GO AWAY: Not much change in the overall weather pattern across Alabama is expected through tomorrow. Periods of cold rain will continue over the northern half of the state, while South Alabama is still in the mild air. In fact, Auburn reports 72 degrees at mid-afternoon with a partly sunny sky, while temperatures are in the 30s over the Tennessee Valley. The stalled boundary won’t move much over the next 24 hours, so the northern counties will remain cold and wet. The ground is very saturated, and flooding will remain possible. All major West Alabama rivers including the Tombigbee and Black Warrior are under flood warnings.
THURSDAY SNOW? The 12Z mesoscale and global models continue to show a deep, cold core upper low moving right over North-Central Alabama during the day Thursday. We have little skill in dealing with the small scale snow bursts that can happen directly under the cold pool, so expect a surprise or two. But, here is the general thinking for Thursday…
*Surface temperatures will remain above freezing, so any accumulation of snow should be mostly on grassy areas, and roads should remain just wet with no major travel issues during the day.
*Snow accumulation of a trace to one inch will be possible Thursday, with the greatest risk of accumulation along and north of I-20. Some high terrain locations over East and Northeast Alabama could see 1 to 2 inches on the grass, especially on Lookout and Sand Mountain, and ridges around Mount Cheaha.
*The best chance of accumulating snow will come from about 7:00 a.m. until 4:00 p.m. Thursday. Most of the snow will be concentrated in a roughly 50 mile wide strip, directly under the cold core ULL where dynamic cooling is maximized. Almost impossible to show you where that strip will be now.
So, in the overall scheme of things, we don’t expect snow on Thursday, if it falls, to be very disruptive. But, again, our skill level in handling cold cores is not good, and expect a few surprises during the day. Take a few minutes to watch the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.
SUNSHINE RETURNS: Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will be totally rain-free with a partly to mostly sunny sky each day. Highs will be mostly in the 50s, with lows in the 30s, which is exactly where we should be this time of the year.
COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER ARRIVES NEXT WEEK: A big cold shot will impact Alabama and the Deep South Tuesday and Wednesday. Global models continue to show a setup where we won’t get out of the 30s on Tuesday, followed by lows in the teens Wednesday morning. So, plan now on a hard freeze at the middle of next week. A slow warm-up begins Thursday. No snow involved with the cold air next week.
VOODOO LAND: Looks like we could very well have another threat of winter weather mischief before the month is over with a favorable pattern; see the Weather Xtreme video for more.
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I had a great time today visiting the second graders at Trace Crossings Elementary in Hoover… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…