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Looks like the Southeast US and Central Alabama are headed into a wet but mild period with rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday before we clear out and chill down once again. And what about the Northeast US. Wow, did they get dumped on by a strong Nor’ester. Forecasts I looked at last night were forecasting “more than 24 inches of snow.” I guess when it gets that high, there probably is not a lot of difference between 24 inches and 36 inches!!
Very nice day on tap for us this Saturday with lots of sunshine and highs climbing to around 60 degrees. But clouds should start increasing late this afternoon and into the evening with mostly cloudy skies for us Sunday. Rain chances will be on the increase Sunday with rain becoming likely by late afternoon and into the nighttime hours thanks to approach of a cold front. Unfortunately, the upper flow goes nearly zonal with a slight southwest flow. This means that the front will stall out in Central or South Alabama keeping us unsettled and wet.
The next strong upper trough comes at us on Tuesday creating another wet day. That strong trough weakens some but goes by early Wednesday bringing an end to the precipitation. But it also ushers in cold air with Wednesday having the potential to be one of those raw days with a good northwest wind and temperatures remaining steady throughout the day in the 40s. And the GFS and ECMWF are in reasonably good agreement on this scenario.
So we see a couple of nice days Thursday and Friday before the next strong upper short wave begins to impact us next Saturday. And this system seems to promise some cold air along with the potential for some winter mischief. Interesting to note that while both models are in good agreement on the cold air, they do disagree substantially on the potential for some wintery precipitation. The GFS is definitely the more aggressive with winter weather and the ECMWF probably a more likely scenario with just a little snow flurry activity following the front. But this is verging on voodoo country, so we’ll be keeping our eye on later model runs to see if this will develop or fizzle.
Looking further into voodoo land, the weather pattern remains active with another shot at precipitation on the 19th with a really, really big ridge around the 24th promising some warm days for the eastern half of the country.
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STORM ALERT 2013: The annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama for the ABC 3340 Weather Team continues through February. They will share lessons learned after the April 27, 2011, generational tornado event, along with other amazing weather stories. Learn how to keep your family safe during severe weather plus you’ll have a chance to win some cool prizes, too. The upcoming Storm Alert tour dates are:
February 12 Jasper – CHS Community Building
February 21 Clanton – Jeff State Performing Arts Center
February 26 Ohatchee – Ohatchee High School
February 28 Clay – Clay/Chalkville High School
All programs begin at 6:30 pm with the doors opening at 5 pm, so be sure to get there early for a good seat.
The next Weather Xtreme Video will be posted by 8 am or so on Sunday morning. Enjoy this great late winter day and the mild temperatures. Godspeed.