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Central Alabama 7 Day Forecast

Archive for February 12th, 2013

Tornado Watch Soon to the South

| 2:41 pm February 12, 2013

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The Storm Prediction Center will likely be issuing a tornado watch soon for parts of southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle as a warm front lifts northward this afternoon and evening.

Here is the text of the mesoscale discussion from the SPC.

Soaking Rain Continues

| 2:34 pm February 12, 2013

**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today… getting ready for our Storm Alert 2013 show tonight in Jasper at the CHS building; show starts at 6:30**

WET, WET, WET: Heavy rain is moving through West Alabama as I write this… the heavier rain is moving into the Birmingham metro at mid-afternoon.

Screen Shot 2013-02-12 at 2.26.14 PM

A flash flood watch remains in effect for Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston, and points south through tonight; an additional one to two inches of rain is possible through midnight, with flooding very possible, especially in low areas.

Temperatures are very chilly, and colder than forecast around here. Birmingham reports only 45 degrees at 2:00 with a steady, miserable rain.

We note that SPC is about to issue a tornado watch for parts of South and Southwest Alabama…

mcd0157

The air is unstable down that way, and a few storms could produce a tornado through tonight; all of the Mardi Gras party folks need to pay attention to the weather. We do not expect any severe weather over the northern half of Alabama; the air is too cool and stable, although thunder and lighting is certainly possible.

TOMORROW: Rain will end early in the day, but the clouds should linger with a high in the 50s.

BRIGHTER WEATHER: We expect a good supply of sunshine tomorrow and Friday, with a high in the 57 to 61 degree range both days. But, north of Birmingham, Friday afternoon will be cooler as the first of two fronts will pass through.

FRIGID SATURDAY: A quick hitting shot of cold, Arctic air blows in here Saturday. Is is very doubtful we get out of the 30s with an icy north wind. The GFS looks pretty dry, but the ECMWF hints at snow flurries or snow showers across much of the state Saturday with a deep, cold upper trough passing overhead; we will continue to mention that in our forecast. Accumulation doesn’t seem likely with very limited moisture profiles.

Sunday morning will be very cold; most places will wind up in the 20 to 25 degree range; colder valleys and protected areas should reach the teens. Then, a warming trend begins Sunday afternoon as we rise into the low 50s.

NEXT WEEK: Rain and storms are likely Tuesday with a fairly dynamic weather system; we will have to see if the atmosphere can recover enough for strong to severe storms. Just a possibility for now… we will keep an eye on this as it gets closer.

STORM ALERT 2013 IN JASPER TONIGHT: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama continues through February. We will share lessons learned after the April 27, 2011 generational tornado event, along with other amazing weather stories. Learn how to keep your family safe during severe weather, and have a chance to win some cool prizes as well. Here are the remaining Storm Alert tour dates…

TONIGHT Jasper – CHS Community Building
February 21 Clanton – Jeff State Performing Arts Center
February 26 Ohatchee – Ohatchee High School
February 28 Clay – Clay/Chalkville High School

All shows begin at 6:30… be sure and get there early to get a good seat.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s new episode.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus

Hope to see many of you tonight in Jasper at Storm Alert 2013… the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here early tomorrow morning, by 7 a.m….

More Rain and Storms

| 1:29 pm February 12, 2013
Click image to enlarge

Click image to enlarge

Widespread showers and some elevated storms are spreading northward across Mississippi and Alabama early this afternoon as a surface low along the Texas coast lifts warm, moist air over the colder airmass over us.

The warm front is lying along the Gulf Coast, but it is having a hard time lifting north with all the rain and cool air in its way.

There is a strong low level jet penetrating up into Mississippi. At about 5,000 feet, winds are blowing at 40-50 mph out of the Gulf, up over southeastern Louisiana and into southern Mississippi. You can see that in the lower left panel of the image above. Thunderstorms along the nose of that low level jet have been strong to severe. That storm east of Jackson has had severe thunderstorm warnings on it. You can see the steady stream of hail reports it has been dropping in its wake. It has weakened below severe limits.

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The storm further to the east, about to enter Sumter County, is not severe, but is capable of producing small hail and gusty winds. It is also producing copious amounts of lightning. This storm will pass near or just north of Livingston between 1:30-1:45.

The storm east of Jackson will reach Philadelphia between 1:40 and 1:45 and Pickens County Alabama around 2:30 p.m.

Severe weather will be most likely over South Alabama, as well as southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Georgia and parts of northern Florida in the unstable air down there. That is not good news for Mardi Gras celebrations in New Orleans and Mobile and elsewhere along the Gulf Coast.

The rain is the main story, with flash flood warnings continuing for several South Central Alabama counties from Choctaw over to Wilcox. All of Central and South Alabama is under a flash flood watch as well.

Look at these Doppler radar estimates on rainfall since early Sunday morning.

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The gray color represents estimates of 5-7 inches of rain during that time. Unfortunately, some more heavy rain will move over some of those same areas this afternoon.

Moderate to occasionally heavy rain will overspread much of central Alabama through the afternoon, making for miserable driving conditions. Allow extra time if you will be out and about this afternoon and evening, and slow down. Here is what you have to look forward to:

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More Rain Moving In

| 9:42 am February 12, 2013

A look at the radar image below and you can see that more rain is moving into Central Alabama. Flash flood watches are in effect for almost all of Alabama with the exception of the Tennessee Valley counties as well as Cullman, Blount, Etowah, Cherokee, Walker, Winston, Marion, Fayette, and Lamar.

Flash flood watches:

Flash flood watches

Alabama Flash Flood Watches

Columbus Weather Radar

Columbus Weather Radar

According to storm total estimates from Columbus and Jackson radars, 1-hour storm totals are between 0.50 inch and 1.25 inches. This coming on top of the 2 to 4 inches of rain that Central Alabama has received in the last couple of days.

Flash flood warnings have also been issued for Clark, Choctaw, and Wilcox counties in Southwest Alabama and Wayne County Mississippi. Central Mississippi counties of Copiah and northern Simpson were also under flash flood warnings.

If you are traveling in the rain, do not drive into areas where water covers the roadway to an unknown depth. Three-quarters of all flash flood deaths involve automobiles.

-Brian-

Another Wet Day; Sun By Thursday

| 5:57 am February 12, 2013

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

WATERLOGGED: A strong short wave moving through Texas will enhance rain across Alabama later today and tonight. While the rain is fairly light and spotty early this morning, the rain will be more widespread and heavier from about 12:00 noon until midnight tonight. Additional rain amounts of one to two inches are likely, and the NWS in Birmingham continues a flash flood watch for areas along and south of I-20 through tonight.

FOR THE YEAR: For those asking… Birmingham’s rain total for the year is now 10.37″, and the surplus for the year is 3.80″.

Some light rain could linger into tomorrow morning, and the sky will stay cloudy through the day, but we have great hope of brighter weather as the sun returns in full force on Thursday. We project a high in the upper 50s Thursday afternoon.

QUICK HITTING COLD SHOT: Two fronts will pass through Alabama; the first one will move through North Alabama in Friday fashion Friday afternoon. For the I-20 corridor, we expect a high around 60 degrees Friday with a decent amount of sun, but our friends in the Tennessee Valley will have a high closer to 50 as colder air blows into the state.

SNOW FLAKES SATURDAY? The second front, an Arctic front, will usher in very cold air Saturday. I doubt if we get out of the 30s; the ECMWF hints some of our friends near the Tennessee border won’t get above freezing. Factor in a north wind of 8-16 mph and it will feel even colder.

Models have been waffling on the amount of moisture available Saturday as a very deep, cold upper trough passes overhead. The 00Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF have trended drier, and we won’t change our ongoing forecast. We have mentioned just the chance of a few light snow flurries or snow showers with no accumulation expected. Of course, we will keep an eye on model trends for any possible changes.

Sunday morning will feature a hard freeze. It looks like most places will see a low between 20 and 25, with teens likely for the colder valleys and protected areas across North Alabama. Then, we begin to warm up Sunday afternoon with a high around 50 degrees.

QUICK CHANGES NEXT WEEK: A return flow begins Monday with a surge of moisture moving northward, and the GFS shows a dynamic system blowing in here Tuesday with a good chance of rain and possibly strong thunderstorms.

LATE MONTH: The pattern looks active and wet for Alabama with several periods of rain and storms; see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

STORM ALERT 2013 TONIGHT IS IN JASPER: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama continues through February. We will share lessons learned after the April 27, 2011 generational tornado event, along with other amazing weather stories. Learn how to keep your family safe during severe weather, and have a chance to win some cool prizes as well. Here are the remaining Storm Alert tour dates…

TONIGHT Jasper – CHS Community Building
February 21 Clanton – Jeff State Performing Arts Center
February 26 Ohatchee – Ohatchee High School
February 28 Clay – Clay/Chalkville High School

All shows begin at 6:30… be sure and get there early to get a good seat.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s new episode.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus

I have a weather program this morning at Northside Middle School in Tuscaloosa County; won’t be able to post an afternoon video due to travel, but I will have a few forecast notes here by 4:00. Enjoy the day, and I hope to see many of you tonight in Jasper at Storm Alert 2013…

WeatherBrains 368: Pickin’ Cotton Naked

| 4:55 am February 12, 2013

WeatherBrains Episode 368 is now online (February 11, 2013). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Our guest bails out for some reason, so it becomes the JB Elliott show! The WeatherBrains crew turns the tail on JB and we interview him tonight.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • 86 at Edinburg, TX, and -26 at Yellowstone Lake, WY
  • Significant rain in Southeast US
  • 40 inches of snow in Southwest Connecticut
  • 16 fatalities in the snow storm
  • No discussion of Al Gore
  • and more!

Our email bag officer actually makes an appearance as opposed to a digital file.

From The Weather Center:

WeatherBrains 101: In the WeatherBrains 101 series on dual polarization radar and its products, we take a look at the HCA product. This is a very interesting product that tries to deduce the type of precipitation occurring. And it uses “fuzzy math.”

TWIWH: Bill Murray looks back at the week of February 11th.

Listener SurveyListener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

Web Sites from Episode 368:

Naming of winter storms on WeatherBrains

Picks of the Week:

JB Elliott – gets the fog horn

Nate Johnson – picture of James Spann below

Bill Murray – US Weather Prediction Computer Gap

Brian Peters – Time Lapse of Snow storm in New York City

Kevin Selle – Storm lapse of snow storm

James Spann – Pine Belt Tornado Event, Feb. 10, 2013

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like JB Elliott, Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

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James Spann