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Archive for April 5th, 2013

I Felt the Earth Move…

| 3:57 pm April 5, 2013

Tornado cropped

Our friend Steve Jones posted an interesting article this week about the seismic signatures of tornadoes on his AlabamaQuake site.

http://alabamaquake.com/reports.html#Tornado_Seismic_Signature

Make sure to follow Steve on Twitter @alabamaquake.

Wonderful Weekend Ahead

| 3:14 pm April 5, 2013

**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today… I am live at the Barber Motorsports Park on ABC 33/40 at 4, 5, and 6:00…**

BRIGHTER AND WARMER: As expected, the sky cleared nicely across Alabama today… we are enjoying ample sunshine this afternoon with temperatures in the 60s. Tonight will be clear and cool; most places will drop into the low 40s, but some of the colder pockets over North Alabama might see mid to upper 30s with a touch of light frost.

The weekend will start with a sunny day tomorrow along with a high in the mid 70s. A few high clouds will show up Sunday, but the day will remain mostly sunny, and we reach the mid 70s again.

NEXT WEEK: We will warm into the 77-81 degree range Monday and Tuesday, and we stay dry on those two days. But, to the west, a significant severe weather setup will bring some very active weather to the Southern Plains.

Model consistency for Alabama on this event remains poor. All of a sudden, the 12Z GFS is much faster, and brings the band of storms into Alabama during the day Wednesday…

gfs_precip_thick_east_22

There is no dominate surface low nearby, and instability and shear values are not especially impressive for early April. But, with the model madness it just remains to be seen if this system will pose a big severe weather issue for Alabama or not. Nobody knows at this point the magnitude of the event, and the details concerning timing, placement, and modes of severe weather are just not known. We will much better clarity by Sunday and Monday.

We note in the longer range (April 12-19) our weather looks rather quiet.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for my next Weather Xtreme video here bright and early Monday morning by 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates here tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Clearing Later Today

| 5:53 am April 5, 2013

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

COLD, DAMP MORNING: Light rain continues early this morning over some of the eastern counties of Alabama, and temperatures are in the 40s. The rain will end shortly, and we will forecast gradual clearing later today as drier air works into the state, and subsidence moves in on the back side of the departing upper trough. If the sun does break out this afternoon, we should reach the mid 60s this afternoon.

Tonight will be cool with a clear sky; most communities will drop into the low 40s early tomorrow, but colder pockets across Northeast Alabama could see the mid 30s with some risk of scattered light frost.

WONDERFUL WEEKEND: Doesn’t get much better. A good supply of sunshine both Saturday and Sunday with highs in the mid 70s. Enjoy.

WARM NEXT WEEK: A good chance we see our warmest weather so far this year next week. We hit 76 degrees on three days in March, our warmest so far in 2013… a good chance we see 80 degree warmth by Tuesday and Wednesday. There will be a slow increase in moisture, but most of Alabama should remain dry Monday and Tuesday.

TO THE WEST: A significant severe weather event is possible Tuesday west of Alabama; the 00Z GFS suggests this might be the biggest severe weather day with a 991 mb low over Kansas, and very unstable air south and east of that low. Places like Dallas/Fort Worth, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Springfield, MO, and Fort Smith, AR will deal with the threat, and SPC has this region outlined in a severe weather risk for Day 5 in their extended outlook. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes.

The surface low fills as it moves east, but severe weather is still possible just west of Alabama during the day Wednesday over Mississippi and West Tennessee; SPC has this area in the Day 6 risk.

For now SPC does not have any severe weather risk defined for Day 7, which is Thursday of next week, and when Alabama will deal with showers and storms. Actually, we could see storms as early as Wednesday night, but the latest model data hints the main risk will come from about midnight Wednesday night through midnight Thursday night. There is no well defined, dominant surface low, and the upper trough is positive tilt. Model data now shows somewhat limited instability, and the best shear north of Alabama… meaning the threat is “iffy”. But, this is very early in the game and things could change.

Like I stated here yesterday, at this early stage of the game nobody knows the magnitude, timing, placement, or specific modes of severe weather. We will have a much better idea of the specifics late this weekend and on Monday. See the Weather Xtreme video for the latest details, maps, and graphics.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day…