Archive for April 7th, 2013
Nearly perfect weather conditions are in place across Central Alabama this afternoon. Temperatures have reached 70 degrees along and south of I-20 generally and will be in the 70s across the entire area this afternoon. A nice field of cumulus clouds was working its way northward over South Central Alabama and invading from the west as well from Mississippi. A nice plume of cumulus clouds was working northward up the Tombigbee River plain of western Alabama. But the clouds won’t slow the temperature rise much.
TONIGHT/MONDAY: Tonight will be mild, with lows in the 50s areawide with clouds lowering during the early morning hours. You probably wake up to cloudy skies Monday. There could also be a few light showers during the day as dewpoints edge up to around 60F and the back of a stead southerly wind off the Gulf of Mexico. Highs will be very comfortable, in the upper 70s on average.
TUESDAY: Tuesday looks like a nice day as we should remain capped on Tuesday despite warm temperatures in the 80s and decent instability and rain chances should be nearly zero. Expect lows to drop only to near 60F Tuesday night.
TALKING SEVERE WEATHER: It’s that time of year in Alabama, and an approaching upper level system that is as impressive as this next one gets our attention. There could be significant severe weather to our west Wednesday afternoon, including the possibility of tornadoes over Mississippi.
WHAT ABOUT US? Ahead of that activity, the airmass over Alabama will be moderately unstable, with CAPE values approaching 1,000 j/kg and very little capping. This will result in the development of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening across Central Alabama. There should be sufficient overall shear to allow the storms that form to be organized, with the threat of damaging winds and large hail. The squall line should reach northwestern Alabama by midnight. These storms will be severe overnight Wednesday night. Damaging winds, large hail and even some tornadoes are possible.
Fortunately, the system should be weakening and instability levels will be on the wane through the overnight hours. But as we always say, when it comes to severe weather, expect the unexpected and be prepared to hear warnings Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Rain and thunderstorms will move across the area during the morning and early afternoon. The storms could intensify and become strong to severe again Thursday afternoon over eastern sections.
COOLER TREND: Behind the cold front, readings over western sections of the state will drop into the lower 60s Thursday morning, and will fall over eastern sections later in the day. You can expect readings in the 40s Thursday night, with clearing skies. Friday will be cooler, with highs in the upper 60s.
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If you liked yesterday, you should love today as we see another marvelous Spring day across Central Alabama. Once again we’ll see passing high cirrus clouds but with plenty of sun we should see the afternoon highs climb to the middle 70s. We stay warm into the middle of the upcoming week as the upper ridge grows stronger through Tuesday and into Wednesday.
But a strong upper trough comes out of the Rockies Tuesday through Thursday posing a risk for severe weather across much of the Central US. SPC has slight risk areas outlooked through Day 4, Wednesday, and Tuesday we are likely to see a moderate risk area. SPC is holding off on specific areas beyond Day 4 due to model inconsistencies and differences. However, there is likely to be some risk of severe storms for Alabama probably coming from 1 am to 1 pm on Thursday. The timing may be helpful to us in limiting the severe weather threat somewhat due to the lack of heating. However, most severe weather parameters are sufficient for severe thunderstorms including isolated tornadoes. The European is still holding to a later time frame with the front passing through Alabama mainly on Friday. I would have thought the two models would have grown closer together since yesterday, however, that is not the case yet. These differences lower confidence in the evolution of the system.
Once that system passes, we should be setting the stage for another great weekend next weekend. We’ll cool down after the warmest days of 2013 on Tuesday and Wednesday, but we don’t see a tremendous chill. Highs should drop from around 81 on Tuesday to upper 60s by Friday. We should see highs over the next weekend back into the 70s.
The stays fairly active in the long range with a system around the 17th/18th and another around 20th. The one around the 20th certainly has a severe weather look to it, and we are into the heart of severe weather season for the Southeast US.
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I’ll be working again today at the Honda Indy Grand Prix at the Barber Motorsports Park. The beautiful weather should make for a great day of Indy car racing. James Spann will be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing Monday morning. Stay tuned to the Blog as we post additional information on the evolution of the system expected here on Thursday. Have a great day and Godspeed.